• Journal of the Korean Society for Railway
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• v.12 no.4
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• pp.488-498
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• 2009

The characteristics of intercity rail network are different from those of public transit network in urban area. In this paper, we proposed a new transit assignment model which is generalized form of deterministic assignment model by introducing line selection probability on route section. This model consider various characteristics of intercity rail and simplify network expansion for appling search algorithms developed in road assignment model. We showed the model availability by comparing with existing models using virtual networks. The tests on a small scale network show that this model is superior to existing models for predicting intercity rail demand.

• Journal of the Korea institute for structural maintenance and inspection
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• v.11 no.1
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• pp.141-152
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• 2007

Considering uncertainties of random input data, it is more reasonable to use probabilistic method than the conventional deterministic method for the design of structures or for the assessment of the responses of structures, which are designed as safe even under extreme loads. Therefore, to assess the quantitative effects of the constructed cable stayed bridge by the input random variables, a sensitivity analysis is studied. Using perturbation method, an analysis program is developed for the iterative probabilistic finite element analyses and sensitivity analyses of the cable stayed bridge, except the initial shape analysis. Monte-Carlo Simulations were used for the verification of the developed program. The results of sensitivity analysis shows the governing effects of external loads. Because the results also provide the sensitive effects of the stiffness of members and the magnitudes of prestressing force of cables, the developed

• Journal of Korean Society for Geospatial Information Science
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• v.14 no.3 s.37
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• pp.55-62
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• 2006

The purpose of the current research is to evaluate the possibility of landslides by using geo-spatial information system. Geological information has been summarized and stability analysis for infinite slopes has been conducted based on the force equilibrium. In addition, the analysis of landslides was performed based on probabilistic approach by using probabilistic variables which can include uncertainty of input parameters. For the purpose of testifing the applicability of the analysis method actual geological data from a construction site was obtained, thereby performing both a preliminary analysis for a large area and detailed analysis for a better result. As a result of the current analysis several issues such as the possibility of development of landslides, detailed analysis of where landslides are most likely to be developed were analysed by using two concepts of safety and index of failure probability.

• Journal of the Korean Recycled Construction Resources Institute
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• v.4 no.2
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• pp.172-179
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• 2016

For an evaluation of service life in RC(Reinforced Concrete) structures, deterministic method and probabilistic method considering random variables of design parameters are usually adopted. In the work, surface chloride contents which vary with distance from sea shore and height are investigated from the previous research literature surveys, and they are considered for service life estimation. Through the analysis, the probabilistic method shows much lower results, which is due to variations of design parameters and very low intended durability failure. In the deterministic method, the structures within 250m and higher than 60m are evaluated to be free from chloride attack. In the probabilistic method, those higher than 60m in all the region and higher than 40m and 250m from sea shore are evaluated to satisfy the service life.

• Journal of Korea Game Society
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• v.18 no.1
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• pp.51-62
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• 2018

Recently, there has been an increasing social concern over the use of random reward game items. In this paper, we try to understand the effect of using random reward game on adolescents based on the survey data over a year. In addition, regression analysis was conducted to examine how socio-psychological variables affect the game addiction of adolescents according to use of random reward games. As a result of analysis, it was found that the random reward game use group had lower self esteem and higher material value than the normal game use group. Also, self esteem and material value have a significant effect on game addiction. And finally, the results and implications were discussed.

• Journal of the Society of Naval Architects of Korea
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• v.28 no.2
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• pp.241-250
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• 1991

The reliability analysis for web frame of tanker is carried out by the probabilistic finite element method combined with the classical reliability method such as MVFOSM and AFOSM which can be used for calculating the probability of failure for the complicated structures in which the limit state equation is implicitly expressed. As random variables external load, elastic modulus, sectional moment of inertia and field stress are chosen and Parkinson's iteration algorithm in AFOSM is used for reliability analysis. By adding only the covariance data of the random variables to the input data set required for conventional finite element method, the present method can easily calculate the probability of failure at every element end as well as the covariances of structural reponses such as displacements at every element end and member forces at every element, even for the complicated ship structure.

• Journal of the Korea Society for Simulation
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• v.20 no.4
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• pp.21-29
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• 2011

Wireless sensor nodes operate in open environments. The deployed sensor nodes are very vulnerable to physical attacks from outside. Attackers compromise some sensor nodes. The compromised nodes by attackers can lead to false data injection into sensor networks. These attacks deplete the limited energy of sensor nodes. Ye et al. proposed the Statistical En-Route Filtering (SEF) as a countermeasure of the attacks. The sensor node in SEF examines the event reports based on certain uniform probability. Thus, the same energies are consumed in both legitimate reports and false reports. In this paper, we propose a method that each node controls the probability of attempts to verify a report to reduce energy consumption of sensor nodes. The probability is determined in consideration of the remaining energy of the node, the number of hops from the node to SINK node, the ratio of false reports. the proposed method can have security which is similar with SEF and consumes lower energy than SEF.

• Journal of the Korea Society of Computer and Information
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• v.12 no.1 s.45
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• pp.17-24
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• 2007

Critical practicality problems are cause to search the presentation and contents according to user request and purpose in previous internet system. Recently, there are a lot of researches about dynamic adaptable ontology based system. We designed ontology based educational system which uses discrete probability and user profile. This system provided advanced usability of contents by ontology and dynamic adaptive model based on discrete probability distribution function and user profile in ontology educational systems. This models represents application domain to weighted direction graph of dynamic adaptive objects and modeling user actions using dynamically approach method structured on discrete probability function. Proposed probability analysis can use that presenting potential attribute to user actions that are tracing search actions of user in ontology structure. This approach methods can allocate dynamically appropriate profiles to user.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2012.05a
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• pp.71-71
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• 2012

현재 전 세계적으로 극한강우의 발생빈도가 점차 높아지고 있으며 홍수량 또한 강도가 커지고 있는 것이 현실이다. 하지만 과거의 홍수발생 빈도에 따라 설계된 홍수방어시설들이 점차 한계를 보이고 있으므로 이를 대비하기위한 구조적 대책뿐만 아니라 홍수피해 발생 가능지역에 사전 예경보를 시행하는 비구조적 대책마련 또한 필요하다. 기존의 홍수예측은 확정적인 하나의 유량예측값만을 제공함으로써 신속하고 편리하였지만 이에 대한 불확실성이 큰 경우 예상치 못한 큰 인적 물적 피해를 가져올 수 있다. 이처럼 확률론적 홍수예측의 필요성이 대두되어 지면서 유럽이나 미국등 선진국에서는 EFFS(European Flood Forecasting System)과 NWSRFS(National Water Service River Forecast System)같이 이미 확률론적 홍수예측에 대한 연구 및 기술개발이 활발하게 진행되어지고 있다. 하지만 홍수예측의 확률론적 접근에 있어서는 많은 불확실성들이 내포되어 있으므로 예측시스템에서 생성된 앙상블 유량예측 결과의 신뢰도 분석과 올바른 불확실성 정보의 제공이 필요하다. 본 연구는 확률론적 홍수예측 방법을 국내에 적용시켜서 기상청의 예측시스템 KLAPS(Korea Local Analysis and Prediction System), MAPLE(McGill Algorithm for Precipitation Nowcasting by Lagrangian Extrapolation), UM(Unified Model) 그리고 MOGREPS(Met Office Global Regional Ensemble Prediction System)으로부터 생성된 기상앙상블을 현재 국토해양부 홍수통제소에서 사용하고 있는 강우-유출모형인 저류함수모형(Storage Function Method)의 입력 자료로 사용한다. 확률론적 홍수예측에서 오는 불확실성을 분석하기 위해서 첫 번째로 제공되는 기상예측 시스템의 시 공간적 스케일 및 대상유역의 공간특성에 따라 어떠한 형태로 전파되어지는지를 분석하였다. 두 번째는 각각의 예측시스템들이 선행기간(Lead time)에 따라 불확실성의 특성이 어떻게 나타나게 되는지를 확인하였다. 이러한 불확실성의 특성을 정확하게 파악하게 된다면 예측에 있어서 현재 갖고 있는 문제점들로부터 개선해 나가야 할 방향을 제시해주어 향후연구에 유용하게 활용될 수 있을 것이다.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2019.05a
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• pp.207-207
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• 2019

최근 우리나라는 지역 특성 및 기후변화의 영향으로 인해 수문학적 요소의 변동성이 커지고 수자원의 지속적인 관리에 있어 유출량은 중요한 문제로 여겨지고 있다. 특히 일부 소하천 또는 접경지역과 같은 미계측유역은 수문학적 요소에 대한 자료가 부족하고 수문모형의 초기치 설정과 과거 유출량 자료를 통하여 최적화한 매개변수를 결정해야하므로 장기유출분석이 어렵다. 본 연구의 적용유역으로 미계측유역인 임진강상류 유역에 대한 유출량 추정을 위해 계측 유역의 자료를 활용하여 모형의 매개변수 등을 추정하는 지역화 기법인 다중선형회귀분석과 공간근접분석을 활용하여 유출량을 산정 및 검증하였다. 또한, 확률론적 예측이 가능한 앙상블 기법 적용을 통한 유출량 예측을 하였고, 이를 예측 정확성 평가지표를 통해 효율성 검토를 수행하여 미계측유역의 유출량에 대해 확률론적 예측을 수행하였다. 대표적 지역화 기법의 적용성을 검토한 결과, 계측유역을 통해 다중선형회귀분석과 공간근접분석을 abcd 모형에 적용하였다. 모의유출량을 산정하고 실측 유출량과 비교 분석 결과 모의정확성이 높게 분석되었다. 이와 같은 검증 결과를 토대로 미계측유역의 유출량을 추정하였다. 또한, 지역화 기법을 앙상블 기법에 적용하여 확률론적 유출량 예측의 효율성을 검토하였다. 적용유역과 같은 지류를 포함하고 있는 임진강하류 유역을 대상으로 수행하였다. 검증기간(2013년~2017년) 동안의 월 예측 유출량 앙상블 생성을 위해 과거 강우량와 증발량(1988년~2012년) 자료를 사용하였으며, 지역화 기법을 적용한 abcd 모형을 이용하였다. 예측 유출량의 정확성 평가를 실시하였으며, 정확성이 비교적 높게 분석되었다. 이와 같은 결과를 토대로 미계측유역의 확률론적 유출량을 예측하였다. 따라서, 대표적 지역화 기법을 앙상블 기법에 적용하여 확률론적 유출량을 예측할 경우 보다 정확한 유출량 예측이 가능하다.