• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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• v.35 no.4
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• pp.31-61
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• 2013

The purpose of this study is to calculate the economic value of transport demand forecasting risks in the road PPP project. Under the assumption that volatility of the road PPP project value occurs only in regard with uncertainty of traffic volume forecasting, this study calculates the economic value of the traffic forecasting risks in the case of the road PPP project. To that end, forecasted traffic volume is assumed to be a stochastic variable and to follow the Geometric Brownian motion as time passes. In particular, this study attempts to differentiate itself from existing studies that simply use an arbitrary assumption by presenting the application of different traffic volume growth volatility and the rates before and after the ramp-up period. Analysis of the case projects reveals that the risk premium related to traffic volume forecast of the project turns out as 7.39~8.30%, without considering option value-such as minimum revenue guarantee-while the project value volatility caused by transport demand forecasting risks is 17.11%. As the discount rate grows higher, the project value volatility tends to decrease and volatility in project value is always suggested to be larger than that in transport volume influenced by leverage effect due to fixed expenditure. The market value of transport demand forecasting risk-calculated using the project value volatility and risk premium-is analyzed to be between 0.42~0.50, implying that a 1% increase or decrease in the transport amount volatility would lead to a 0.42~0.50% increase or decrease in risk premium of the project.

• 도로교통
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• s.76
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• pp.79-81
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• 1999

80년대 이후, 교통량의 증가는 많은 문제점을 낳고 있다. 필요한 도로망의 확충은 여러 요인으로 기대하기 곤란하므로 기존 도로의 효율 극대화의 노력이 요구된다. 따라서 신도로 체계에 호응하고 새로운 교통문화를 이루기 위해 도로를 이용하는 우리가 이해하고 효과적으로 활용하는데 도움이 되도록 "길" 이야기를 엮어본다.

• The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
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• v.17 no.4
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• pp.41-53
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• 2018

This study developed the optimization method to correct the measured traffic volume of the expressway that minimizes the measurement error and satisfies the traffic balancing with TCS. For this purpose, the model constructed in this study was compared and verified with the true traffic volume. Verification result of the model, it was found that the measurement error is reduced when the measured traffic volume is corrected for the traffic volume balance. As a result of applying it to 40 links of the Kyoungbu expressway, the measured traffic volume was corrected by -8.1%~9.6% and the measurement error was decreased as much as the corrected traffic volume. This research is meaningful in improving the accuracy of the measured traffic volume of the expressway, while the scale and role of the expressway are increasing.

• International Journal of Highway Engineering
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• v.7 no.4 s.26
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• pp.21-30
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• 2005

Traffic volume data have been used for the plan, the design, and the operation of highway. Since 1955, traffic survey has been nation- widely carried out at national highway and the regular survey in national highway has been conducted at the intersections of highways. However, it is critical issue to select the priority of the regular survey because it is almost impossible to conduct regular survey at all intersections of national highways. In this study, MCDM(Multiple Criteria Decision Making) using AHP(Analytic Hierarchy Process) was applied to decide the priority of the regular survey. The following standard variables for determining the priority was selected the highway plan variables[AADT, VKT, Peak Hourly Volume, Location of highway from Urban], the highway design variables[Volume(pcu), Directional Traffic Volume, Heavy Vehicle Rate], and the highway operation variables[Speed, Density, V/C]. The standard variables were quantified and normalized. Using the Eigen vector method, the weighted values of each hierarchy based on the pair-wise comparison values from the questionnaire survey were calculated. The selection of the priority of regular survey was dependent on the size of the product of the weighted values for each hierarchy and the normalized values for the standard variables. Finally, the priority of regular survey of the intersections of national highways was determined according to the order in the size of the product of two values.

• International Journal of Highway Engineering
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• v.7 no.4 s.26
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• pp.41-47
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• 2005

Traffic data such as traffic volume, speed, and vehicle Class are very important basic data for the plan and design of highway. Based on traffic data, the future service level of a specific highway and geometry of newly constructed or expended road is predicted and determined. The Ministry of Construction & Transportation has simultaneously surveyed coverage count and permanent count at highways since 1985. Traffic volume survey sections were determined at jointed nodes of highways and jointed nodes of highways and other roads such as freeway and local highway. Volume survey was performed at these sections. The premise to decide these sections is assumed that links between jointed nodes of main highways exhibit similar traffic characteristics. Recently, due to the change of highway geometries such as construction of detour road and installations of traffic facilities such as installation of media, traffic characteristics of the existing traffic volume survey sections was changed. To reflect these changes, traffic characteristics at homogeneous road sections was widely evaluated and analyzed. Using Genetic Algorithms, a model was developed for the evaluation of traffic characteristics at homogeneous road sections. Traffic volume survey sections were then determined through the application of the developed model for current traffic system.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.14 no.2
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• pp.173-189
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• 1996

본 논문의 목적은 2차선 지방지역도로에서 사용 가능한 No-overtaking Model의 개발과 현장조사를 통한 우리 나라 2차선 도로의 교통류 특성의 규명이었다. No-overtaking Model을 개발하기 위해서는 이미 개발된 바 있는 Slow moving Vehicle Model의 이론적 틀을 근거로 하되 중차량을 따라 피동적으로 주행하는 일련의 차량군에 또 다른 중차량이 포함된 경우에 대해서도 분석이 가능하도록 개선했다. 경기도 일원에서 약 3 개월동안 조사한 현장조사에서 나타난 우리 나라 2차선 도로의 교통류 특성은 첫째로, 2차 선 교통류의 주요 MOE(Measures of Effectiveness)들은 교통량에 의해 비교적 정확하게 산정 가능하다는 것과, 둘째로 우리 나라의 주요 MOE값은 외국의 경우와 비교했을 때 대 체로 유사한 결가를 보이나 평균속도의 경우 최소 5km/h 최대 15km/h 정도와 차이를 나타 낸다는 것, 그리고 셋째로 차량군의 선두차량 85%의 경우 그 속도는 100.4km/h이고 추월 에 필요한 반대편차선 차량과의 여유 거리는 754.8m이라는 것이었다. 향후 연구과제로는 중차량의 속도분포를 확률 분포식으로 나타내는 경우의 지체시간, 추월율 등의 2차선 교통 류 MOE를 산출할 수 있는 Model을 개발하는 것이며 현재 5분 교통량으로 표시된 교통량 을 보다 많은 현장수집 자료를 통해 1시간 단위의 교통량을 기준으로 하여 MOE를 산정해 보는 것이다.

• The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
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• v.10 no.5
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• pp.124-134
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• 2011

To make popular the NEV(Neighborhood Electric Vehicles) uses, it must be considered the supply of infrastructure and the political decision for NEV. However, the guidelines of infrastructure for NEV are not prepared. The guidelines of infrastructure for NEV should be performed in many research and case. The purpose of this study is to reveal the influence of NEV on the two-lane highway traffic flows by TWOPAS simulation model. The main items to check the influence are Average Travel speed, Percent Time Spent Following and Total Delay. The scenario were setup by traffic volume. And the NEV percentages are changed from 1% ~ 30%. The scenario 1 which traffic volume are 650veh/h and the scenario 4 which traffic volume are 2,600veh/h are less influenced by NEV, compare to scenario 2, scenario 3. Because the scenario 1 is more free to make passing other cars and Scenario 4 is fully saturated with existing traffic volumes. The urban two-lane highway which has much traffic volume and the rural two-lane highway which has little traffic volume has affinity for NEV than the other two-lane highway.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.18 no.2
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• pp.17-26
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• 2000

LOS(Level of Service), the qualitative measure describing operational condition of highway, must be evaluated as quantative index in terms of user service. So, This study is focused on developing the user cost function that user cost is measured in the variation of V/C, MOE(Measure of Effectiveness) of LOS in basic Section of highway. The user cost is calculated as the sum of accident cost, operation cost, travel time cost. The data is collected in the four basic section of Singal-Ansan and Jung bu Highway. As the result of user cost function analysis, the user cost is the lowest When V/C is 0.54. Considering the V/C ratio(0.7) of Basic Section in rural highway suggested in KHCM, We find out that the LOS suggested KHCM increase the user cost of highway.

• Journal of the Economic Geographical Society of Korea
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• v.12 no.4
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• pp.521-539
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• 2009

This study investigates the time-space characteristics of the road traffic flows in Seoul and the relationship with land use patterns. For the purpose, we analyze the road traffic data collected at 118 observation sites over Seoul City area since 1993. We examine the time-trend of the annual average traffic flows per day during the last fourteen years. Three different trends are revealed: rapid increase during the time period between 1993 and 1997, maintenance same level after sharp decrease between year 1997 and 1998, and gradual decrease after sharp decrease between year 2003 and 2004. The spatial distribution patterns of road traffic flows have also been changed significantly during the period. The traffic flows in the urban center have been declined gradually, while the traffic flows in the boundary area and southern CBDs have increased dramatically. In order to examine the relationship with the changes in the land-use patterns and road traffic flows, we analyze the changes in the spatial distribution patterns of population and industries. We developed three multiple linear regression models to test the relationships between the changes in the land-use variables and road traffic flows.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.26 no.3
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• pp.199-209
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• 2008

This paper is described the concepts and limitations for the traditional directional design hour volume estimation. The main objective of this paper is to establish an estimation method of probabilistic directional design hour volume in order to improve the limitation for the traditional approach method. To express the traffic congestion of specific road segment, this paper proposed the link travel time as the probability that the road capacity can accommodate a certain traffic demand at desired service level. Also, the link travel time threshold was derived from chance-constrained stochastic model. Such successive probabilistic process could determine optimal ranked design hour volume and directional design hour volume. Therefore, the probabilistic directional design hour volume can consider the traffic congestion and economic aspect in road planning and design stage. It is hoped that this study will provide a better understanding of various issues involved in the short term prediction of directional design hourly volume on different types of roads.