• Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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• v.28 no.1
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• pp.121-145
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• 2019

This paper investigates the relationship between the oil price and the major petroleum products prices at the trading hubs such as Singapore, North West Europe and the US New York Harbor. We focus on the lead-lag relationship between the weekly petroleum prices from 2009 to 2016 based on the vector error correction model. We find that the oil price leads the prices of petroleum products in the long term, while there is bidirectional causality in the short term. On the other hand, prices of petroleum products in regions with high import dependency, such as Europe gas oil and jet fuel price, are exogenous in the long term. We also present evidence that prices of petroleum products in region with a large global-market share lead prices in other regions. However, if the region is in an over-production situation and low industry concentration, it may lose its price leadership due to intense competition. The result in this study can provide a useful information to petroleum refining companies in forecasting fluctuations of product price, and hence in planning their regional arbitrage trading activities.

• The Journal of Sustainable Design and Educational Environment Research
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• v.15 no.1
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• pp.30-39
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• 2016

Students receiving plan is not based on short-term indicators, such as student-centered, student-induced factor to address school needs new complaint, it is necessary to establish the school in the center of a long-term (30 years) perspective. Therefore, analysis of Cheongju students can examine the entire 30 years of the elementary school in this study are as follows: First, given the increasing number of students in seven models and presented the case to its types. Second, considering the geographical characteristics and the development of regional characteristics classify 55 elementary Schools in Cheongju City by dividing the number of students increase or decrease trend to 10 zones the results are as follows: Students Number increasing school group of 4 schools, 15 schools students Number fell in shot Term, the Students Number dropped in middle Term 26 schools, 10 was a small school. In particular, it is urgently necessary to establish measures for these small schools. Third, despite the reduced number of students indicated in the analysis result, caused the social conflict factors by excessive new school requirements. It also caused a number of students from schools when the Curve of Students Number are to remain flat or decline. It shows that no additional new demand of School in the region. Fourth, the number of students increasing trend forecasting model

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.27 no.4
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• pp.23-48
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• 2021

The Korean economy has achieved continuous economic growth for the past several decades thanks to the government's export strategy policy. This increase in exports is playing a leading role in driving Korea's economic growth by improving economic efficiency, creating jobs, and promoting technology development. Traditionally, the main factors affecting Korea's exports can be found from two perspectives: economic factors and industrial structural factors. First, economic factors are related to exchange rates and global economic fluctuations. The impact of the exchange rate on Korea's exports depends on the exchange rate level and exchange rate volatility. Global economic fluctuations affect global import demand, which is an absolute factor influencing Korea's exports. Second, industrial structural factors are unique characteristics that occur depending on industries or products, such as slow international division of labor, increased domestic substitution of certain imported goods by China, and changes in overseas production patterns of major export industries. Looking at the most recent studies related to global exchanges, several literatures show the importance of cultural aspects as well as economic and industrial structural factors. Therefore, this study attempted to develop a forecasting model by considering cultural factors along with economic and industrial structural factors in calculating the import volume of each country from Korea. In particular, this study approaches the influence of cultural factors on imports of Korean products from the perspective of PUSH-PULL framework. The PUSH dimension is a perspective that Korea develops and actively promotes its own brand and can be defined as the degree of interest in each country for Korean brands represented by K-POP, K-FOOD, and K-CULTURE. In addition, the PULL dimension is a perspective centered on the cultural and psychological characteristics of the people of each country. This can be defined as how much they are inclined to accept Korean Flow as each country's cultural code represented by the country's governance system, masculinity, risk avoidance, and short-term/long-term orientation. The unique feature of this study is that the proposed final prediction model can be selected based on Design Principles. The design principles we presented are as follows. 1) A model was developed to reflect interest in Korea and cultural characteristics through newly added data sources. 2) It was designed in a practical and convenient way so that the forecast value can be immediately recalled by inputting changes in economic factors, item code and country code. 3) In order to derive theoretically meaningful results, an algorithm was selected that can interpret the relationship between the input and the target variable. This study can suggest meaningful implications from the technical, economic and policy aspects, and is expected to make a meaningful contribution to the export support strategies of small and medium-sized enterprises by using the import forecasting model.

• The Journal of Sustainable Design and Educational Environment Research
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• v.20 no.2
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• pp.1-10
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• 2021

The results of research and analysis are as follows: First, there were 108 types of change patterns in the number of elementary school students. Second, based on the similarity of 108 types of change patterns in the number of students, a type system diagram was presented. Third, in the case of a total of 18 types of change patterns in the number of students, the number of students decreased significantly due to the establishment of additional schools on top of the existing schools. The result of a a long-term survey and analysis on the trend of increase and decrease in the number of students across the country shows an urgent need todevelop policy tasks across the entire school accommodation plan, such as the establishment of differentiated schools suitable for regional characteristics, relocation, consolidation, reorganization of school districts, remodeling, and appropriatization projects.

• Journal of Bio-Environment Control
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• v.32 no.4
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• pp.384-395
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• 2023

Since transpiration plays a key role in optimal irrigation management, knowledge of the irrigation demand of crops like tomatoes, which are highly susceptible to water stress, is necessary. One way to determine irrigation demand is to measure transpiration, which is affected by environmental factor or growth stage. This study aimed to estimate the transpiration amount of tomatoes and find a suitable model using mathematical and deep learning models using minute-by-minute data. Pearson correlation revealed that observed environmental variables significantly correlate with crop transpiration. Inside air temperature and outside radiation positively correlated with transpiration, while humidity showed a negative correlation. Multiple Linear Regression (MLR), Polynomial Regression model, Artificial Neural Network (ANN), Long short-term Memory (LSTM), and Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU) models were built and compared their accuracies. All models showed potential in estimating transpiration with R² values ranging from 0.770 to 0.948 and RMSE of 0.495 mm/min to 1.038 mm/min in the test dataset. Deep learning models outperformed the mathematical models; the GRU demonstrated the best performance in the test data with 0.948 R² and 0.495 mm/min RMSE. The LSTM and ANN closely followed with R² values of 0.946 and 0.944, respectively, and RMSE of 0.504 m/min and 0.511, respectively. The GRU model exhibited superior performance in short-term forecasts while LSTM for long-term but requires verification using a large dataset. Compared to the FAO56 Penman-Monteith (PM) equation, PM has a lower RMSE of 0.598 mm/min than MLR and Polynomial models degrees 2 and 3 but performed least among all models in capturing variability in transpiration. Therefore, this study recommended GRU and LSTM models for short-term estimation of tomato transpiration in greenhouses.

• Journal of Cadastre & Land InformatiX
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• v.47 no.2
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• pp.159-174
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• 2017

The long-term imbalances between supply and demand in office market can weaken urban growth since excessive supply of offices led to office market instability and excessive demand of offices weakens growth of urban industry. Recently, there have been a lot of new large-scale supplies, which increased volatility in Seoul office market. Nevertheless, new supply of Seoul office has not been fully examined. Given this, the focus of this article was on confirming the influences of profitability, replacement cost, and demand on new office supplies in Seoul. In examining those influences, another focus was on their relative influences over time. For these purposes, we analyzed quarterly data of Seoul office market between 2003 and 2015 using a vector error correction model (VECM). As a result, in terms of the influences on the current new supply, the impact of supply before the first quarter was negative, while that of office employment before the first quarter was positive. Also, that of interest rate before the second quarter was positive, while those of cap rate before the first quarter and cap rate before the second quarter were negative. Based on the findings, it is suggested that prediction models on Seoul offices need to be developed considering the influences of profitability, replacement cost, and demand on new office supplies in Seoul.

• Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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• v.89 no.3
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• pp.368-377
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• 2000

This study was conducted to examine the recent developments in timber certification schemes at global level such as FSC certification and ISO 14001 system and to analyze their potential impacts on the Korean forest products trade. Data and information on standards and procedure of timber certification and certified forest lands were collected from relevant papers, statistics and reports published by regional and international organizations. In order to analyze the impacts on the Korean forest products trade, questionnaire survey to the affected parties was conducted on acknowledge of key words relating to environment and trade and on the additional amount of willingness to pay for a labeled timber from environmentally sound and sustainably managed forests. Quantities of certified timbers supplied would continue to increase due to lots of timber certification schemes developed and implemented at national, regional and global levels and growing interests in certification from many countries. Demand for certified timbers, however, is far from clear at this stage. The deciding factor would be consumer reaction to the certified products. In the short run, the timber certification would have a little impacts on forest products imports into Korean markets since domestic purchasers do not have much interests in environment related trade measures and their willingness to pay price premiums for certified timbers is not high. However, it could be expected that timber certification has negative impacts on exports of forest products, such as flooring and plywood, to developed European markets where timber certification is used as a trade barrier.

• Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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• v.106 no.2
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• pp.219-229
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• 2017

Forest road is an essential infrastructure for forest management such as the composition and management of forest resources, timber and forest byproduct production & transportation. It has recently been utilized forest recreation and forest sports as well as also forest pest control, forest fire prevention and evolution. When you build a forest road, the economic function in the forest is activated, so that it can result in the ripple effect of induced employment, value-added creation and production inducement. The purpose of this study is to analyze the impact caused by forest road construction occurring as the overall economy. For analysis it was applied to inter industry analysis method that is a method for analyzing the quantitative cross-correlation. The data were used in the Input-Output Tables In 2014, the Bank of Korea. When you build a forest road, economic effect due to the construction of the forest road is generated and economic effects are also generated due to the increase in the production of forest products after the construction of the forest road. Therefore, we will analyze the economic impact of the two effects. The estimated economic value of forest products, which is the economic effect of forest product cultivation, was calculated through some assumptions and the economic ripple effect was analyzed. The forest road construction sector is defined as land clearing and reclamation, and irrigation project construction and the forestry forest products sector is defined as the sum of raw timber, edible forest products and misc. forest products. In total, 32 sectors were classified, and except for the two sectors defined as forest road construction and forestry forest products, the remaining sectors were integrated according to the classification system of 30 integrated classifications of the Bank of Korea. As a result, the production inducement coefficient for forest construction was analyzed to be 2.767 and the production inducement coefficient for forestry forest products was analyzed to be 1.565. This means that 2,767 times the production of forest road construction investment is induced in the whole industry and the production of 1.562 times the amount of forestry forest products is caused by the whole industry as the production of forestry forest products increases. The value added inducement coefficient for forest road construction was 0.977 and the value added inducement coefficient for forestry forest products was 0.985. Forest road are essential infrastructure for forestry development and should be continuously invested because they are essential elements of timber production and forest byproduct production with functions such as forest management, forest recreation, forest sports, and town connection.

• Current Research on Agriculture and Life Sciences
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• v.4
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• pp.141-153
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• 1986

This study intends to document the existing cyclical fluctuations of garic and onion price at farm gate level during the period of 1966-1986 in Korea. The existing patterns of such cyclical fluctuations were estimated systematically by removing the seasonal fluctuation and irregular movement as well as secular trend from the original price through the moving average method. It was found that the cyclical fluctuations of garic and onion prices repeated six and seven times respectively during the same period, also the amplitude coefficient of cyclical fluctuations showed speed up in recent years. It was noticed that the cyclical fluctuations of price in onion was higher than that of in garic.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.24 no.3
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• pp.67-88
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• 2018

Until recently, as we recognize the significance of sustainable growth and competitiveness of small-and-medium sized enterprises (SMEs), governmental support for tangible resources such as R&D, manpower, funds, etc. has been mainly provided. However, it is also true that the inefficiency of support systems such as underestimated or redundant support has been raised because there exist conflicting policies in terms of appropriateness, effectiveness and efficiency of business support. From the perspective of the government or a company, we believe that due to limited resources of SMEs technology development and capacity enhancement through collaboration with external sources is the basis for creating competitive advantage for companies, and also emphasize value creation activities for it. This is why value chain network analysis is necessary in order to analyze inter-company deal relationships from a series of value chains and visualize results through establishing knowledge ecosystems at the corporate level. There exist Technology Opportunity Discovery (TOD) system that provides information on relevant products or technology status of companies with patents through retrievals over patent, product, or company name, CRETOP and KISLINE which both allow to view company (financial) information and credit information, but there exists no online system that provides a list of similar (competitive) companies based on the analysis of value chain network or information on potential clients or demanders that can have business deals in future. Therefore, we focus on the "Value Chain Network System (VCNS)", a support partner for planning the corporate business strategy developed and managed by KISTI, and investigate the types of embedded network-based analysis modules, databases (D/Bs) to support them, and how to utilize the system efficiently. Further we explore the function of network visualization in intelligent value chain analysis system which becomes the core information to understand industrial structure ystem and to develop a company's new product development. In order for a company to have the competitive superiority over other companies, it is necessary to identify who are the competitors with patents or products currently being produced, and searching for similar companies or competitors by each type of industry is the key to securing competitiveness in the commercialization of the target company. In addition, transaction information, which becomes business activity between companies, plays an important role in providing information regarding potential customers when both parties enter similar fields together. Identifying a competitor at the enterprise or industry level by using a network map based on such inter-company sales information can be implemented as a core module of value chain analysis. The Value Chain Network System (VCNS) combines the concepts of value chain and industrial structure analysis with corporate information simply collected to date, so that it can grasp not only the market competition situation of individual companies but also the value chain relationship of a specific industry. Especially, it can be useful as an information analysis tool at the corporate level such as identification of industry structure, identification of competitor trends, analysis of competitors, locating suppliers (sellers) and demanders (buyers), industry trends by item, finding promising items, finding new entrants, finding core companies and items by value chain, and recognizing the patents with corresponding companies, etc. In addition, based on the objectivity and reliability of the analysis results from transaction deals information and financial data, it is expected that value chain network system will be utilized for various purposes such as information support for business evaluation, R&D decision support and mid-term or short-term demand forecasting, in particular to more than 15,000 member companies in Korea, employees in R&D service sectors government-funded research institutes and public organizations. In order to strengthen business competitiveness of companies, technology, patent and market information have been provided so far mainly by government agencies and private research-and-development service companies. This service has been presented in frames of patent analysis (mainly for rating, quantitative analysis) or market analysis (for market prediction and demand forecasting based on market reports). However, there was a limitation to solving the lack of information, which is one of the difficulties that firms in Korea often face in the stage of commercialization. In particular, it is much more difficult to obtain information about competitors and potential candidates. In this study, the real-time value chain analysis and visualization service module based on the proposed network map and the data in hands is compared with the expected market share, estimated sales volume, contact information (which implies potential suppliers for raw material / parts, and potential demanders for complete products / modules). In future research, we intend to carry out the in-depth research for further investigating the indices of competitive factors through participation of research subjects and newly developing competitive indices for competitors or substitute items, and to additively promoting with data mining techniques and algorithms for improving the performance of VCNS.