• Title/Summary/Keyword: 다변량통계기법

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위탁증거금(委託證據金)의 변경(變更)이 주가변동율(株價變動率) 및 주가(株價)의 잠정적(暫定的) 구성부분(構成部分)에 미치는 영향(影響)에 대한 실증적(實證的) 고찰(考察)

  • Hwang, Seon-Ung
    • The Korean Journal of Financial Management
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    • v.9 no.2
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    • pp.101-147
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    • 1992
  • 증권거래소(證券去來所)는 시황에 따라 위탁증거금율(委託證據金率)을 탄력적으로 변경 운용함으로써 시장의 수급을 조절하는 등의 시장관리수단의 하나로 이용하여 공정한 시세형성을 기하고자 설립시부터 증권회사로 하여금 매매의 위탁시 위탁증거금을 징수하도록 규정하고 증거금율을 상황에 따라 신축적으로 운용하여 1962년 이후에만도 무려 32회이상 변경하였다. 따라서 문제의 핵심은 위탁증거금징수가 주식시장에서의 과잉투기행위를 근절시키고 주가변동율(株價變動率)(stock volatility)을 감소시켜 공정거래질서(公正去來秩序)를 확보하는데 기여하고 있는지의 여부가 된다. 이 점은 특히 미국(美國)에서 1987년 10월 소위 '검은 월요일(Black Monday)'당시 갑작스러운 주가폭락과 시장체계의 붕괴사태이후 금융시장의 발전을 모색하는 정책당국자들과 학자들사이에 새로운 주목을 받기 시작하였다. Salinger(1989)와 Schwert(1989)는 위탁증거금율(委託證據金率)의 변경과 주가변동율(株價變動率)의 감소와는 아무런 인과관계가 없다고 결론을 내리고 있다. 특히 Schwert는 거래일시중단시책마저도 주가변동율에 별 효과가 없다고 주장하면서 금융공황과 관련된 거래일시중단은 주가변동을 큰 폭으로 증가시켜왔으나 금융공황을 동반하지 않은 기래일시중단은 높은 주가변동율과 무관함을 밝히고 있다. Hardouvelis(1991)는 그러나 위탁증거금율을 상승시키면 주가변동율이 낮아지며, 결과적으로 주가가 본원적가치(本源的價値)로부터 일탈하는 현상도 줄어든다는 사실을 통계적으로 입증하고, 위탁증거금의 징수가 시장을 교란하는 악성투기행위를 억제시키는데 매우 효과적인 정책수단이라고 주장하고 있다. 본 연구는 우리나라 주식시장에서 과잉투기현상을 억제하여 시장의 안정을 확보하는 기능으로서의 위탁증거금제도에 대해 그 경제적 효과여부를 규명하는 실증분석을 행하였다. 이 논문에서는 Schwert(1989)와 Hardouvelis(1991)의 방법을 원용하여 두가지 서로 다른 방법으로 주가변동율을 측정하여 비교하였다. 통계적 기법은 기본적으로 다변량(多變量) 회귀분석법(回歸分析法)을 택하였다. 분석의 결과로 매우 흥미로운 실증상(實證上)의 규칙성(規則性)을 발견하였다. 즉 현금시장(cash market)의 위탁증거금율이 높아지면 실제주가변동율(實際株價變動率)과 초과주가변동율(超過株價變動率)이 감소되고, 또한 유행(流行)의 경우와 마찬가지로 본원적 가치로부터의 괴리가 작아진다. 이 결과에 따르면 위탁증거금의 징수는 그 제도의 취지에 부합되고 있다. 다만 제도운용상의 이유이거나 혹은 우리나라 주식시장의 투자자들이 비합리적인 투자형태를 보임에 따라 그 정책적 효과는 때로 역기능적인 결과로 초래하였다. 그럼에도 불구하고 이 연구결과를 통하여 최소한 주식시장(株式市場)에서 위탁증거금제도는 그 제도적 의의가 여전히 있다는 사실이 확인되었다. 또한 우리나라 주식시장에서 통상 과열투기 행위가 빈번히 일어나 주식시장을 교란시킴으로써 건전한 투자풍토조성에 저해된다는 저간의 우려가 매우 커왔으나 표본 기간동안에 대하여 실증분석을 한 결과 주식시장 전체적으로 볼 때 주가변동율(株價變動率), 특히 초과주가변동율(超過株價變動率)에 미치는 영향이 그다지 심각한 정도는 아니었으며 오히려 우리나라의 주식시장은 미국시장에 비해 주가가 비교적 안정적인 수준을 유지해 왔다고 볼 수 있다.

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Analysis on Correlation between AE Parameters and Stress Intensity Factor using Principal Component Regression and Artificial Neural Network (주성분 회귀분석 및 인공신경망을 이용한 AE변수와 응력확대계수와의 상관관계 해석)

  • Kim, Ki-Bok;Yoon, Dong-Jin;Jeong, Jung-Chae;Park, Phi-Iip;Lee, Seung-Seok
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Nondestructive Testing
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    • v.21 no.1
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    • pp.80-90
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    • 2001
  • The aim of this study is to develop the methodology which enables to identify the mechanical properties of element such as stress intensity factor by using the AE parameters. Considering the multivariate and nonlinear properties of AE parameters such as ringdown count, rise time, energy, event duration and peak amplitude from fatigue cracks of machine element the principal component regression(PCR) and artificial neural network(ANN) models for the estimation of stress intensity factor were developed and validated. The AE parameters were found to be very significant to estimate the stress intensity factor. Since the statistical values including correlation coefficients, standard mr of calibration, standard error of prediction and bias were stable, the PCR and ANN models for stress intensity factor were very robust. The performance of ANN model for unknown data of stress intensity factor was better than that of PCR model.

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Optimal Spatial Scale for Land Use Change Modelling : A Case Study in a Savanna Landscape in Northern Ghana (지표피복변화 연구에서 최적의 공간스케일의 문제 : 가나 북부지역의 사바나 지역을 사례로)

  • Nick van de Giesen;Paul L. G. Vlek;Park Soo Jin
    • Journal of the Korean Geographical Society
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    • v.40 no.2 s.107
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    • pp.221-241
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    • 2005
  • Land Use and Land Cover Changes (LUCC) occur over a wide range of space and time scales, and involve complex natural, socio-economic, and institutional processes. Therefore, modelling and predicting LUCC demands an understanding of how various measured properties behave when considered at different scales. Understanding spatial and temporal variability of driving forces and constraints on LUCC is central to understanding the scaling issues. This paper aims to 1) assess the heterogeneity of land cover change processes over the landscape in northern Ghana, where intensification of agricultural activities has been the dominant land cover change process during the past 15 years, 2) characterise dominant land cover change mechanisms for various spatial scales, and 3) identify the optimal spatial scale for LUCC modelling in a savanna landscape. A multivariate statistical method was first applied to identify land cover change intensity (LCCI), using four time-sequenced NDVI images derived from LANDSAT scenes. Three proxy land use change predictors: distance from roads, distance from surface water bodies, and a terrain characterisation index, were regressed against the LCCI using a multi-scale hierarchical adaptive model to identify scale dependency and spatial heterogeneity of LUCC processes. High spatial associations between the LCCI and land use change predictors were mostly limited to moving windows smaller than 10$\times$10km. With increasing window size, LUCC processes within the window tend to be too diverse to establish clear trends, because changes in one part of the window are compensated elsewhere. This results in a reduced correlation between LCCI and land use change predictors at a coarser spatial extent. The spatial coverage of 5-l0km is incidentally equivalent to a village or community area in the study region. In order to reduce spatial variability of land use change processes for regional or national level LUCC modelling, we suggest that the village level is the optimal spatial investigation unit in this savanna landscape.

Sewer Decontamination Mechanism and Pipe Network Monitoring and Fault Diagnosis of Water Network System Based on System Analysis (시스템 해석에 기초한 하수관망 오염 매카니즘과 관망 모니터링 및 이상진단)

  • Kang, OnYu;Lee, SeungChul;Kim, MinJeong;Yu, SuMin;Yoo, ChangKyoo
    • Korean Chemical Engineering Research
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    • v.50 no.6
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    • pp.980-987
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    • 2012
  • Nonpoint source pollution causes leaks and overtopping, depending on the state of the sewer network as well as aggravates the pollution load of the aqueous water system as it is introduced into the sewer by wash-off. According, the need for efficient sewer monitoring system which can manage the sewage flowrate, water quality, inflow/infiltration and overflow has increased for sewer maintenance and the prevention of environmental pollution. However, the sewer monitoring is not easy since the sewer network is built in underground with the complex nature of its structure and connections. Sewer decontamination mechanism as well as pipe network monitoring and fault diagnosis of water network system on system analysis proposed in this study. First, the pollution removal pattern and behavior of contaminants in the sewer pipe network is analyzed by using sewer process simulation program, stormwater & wastewater management model for expert (XP-SWMM). Second, the sewer network fault diagnosis was performed using the multivariate statistical monitoring to monitor water quality in the sewer and detect the sewer leakage and burst. Sewer decontamination mechanism analysis with static and dynamic state system results showed that loads of total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorous (TP) during rainfall are greatly increased than non-rainfall, which will aggravate the pollution load of the water system. Accordingly, the sewer outflow in pipe network is analyzed due to the increased flow and inflow of pollutant concentration caused by rainfall. The proposed sewer network monitoring and fault diagnosis technique can be used effectively for the nonpoint source pollution management of the urban watershed as well as continuous monitoring system.

Evaluation of Correlation between Chlorophyll-a and Multiple Parameters by Multiple Linear Regression Analysis (다중회귀분석을 이용한 낙동강 하류의 Chlorophyll-a 농도와 복합 영향인자들의 상관관계 분석)

  • Lim, Ji-Sung;Kim, Young-Woo;Lee, Jae-Ho;Park, Tae-Joo;Byun, Im-Gyu
    • Journal of Korean Society of Environmental Engineers
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    • v.37 no.5
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    • pp.253-261
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    • 2015
  • In this study, Chlorophyll-a (chl-a) prediction model and multiple parameters affecting algae occurrence in Mulgeum site were evaluated by statistical analysis using water quality, hydraulic and climate data at Mulgeum site (1998~2008). Before the analysis, control chart method and effect period of typhoon were adopted for improving reliability of the data. After data preprocessing step two methods were used in this study. In method 1, chl-a prediction model was developed using preprocessed data. Another model was developed by Method 2 using significant parameters affecting chl-a after data preprocessing step. As a result of correlation analysis, water temperature, pH, DO, BOD, COD, T-N, $NO_3-N$, $PO_4-P$, flow rate, flow velocity and water depth were revealed as significant multiple parameters affecting chl-a concentration. Chl-a prediction model from Method 1 and 2 showed high $R^2$ value with 0.799 and 0.790 respectively. Validation for each prediction model was conducted with the data from 2009 to 2010. Training period and validation period of Method 1 showed 20.912 and 24.423 respectively. And Method 2 showed 21.422 and 26.277 in each period. Especially BOD, DO and $PO_4-P$ played important role in both model. So it is considered that analysis of algae occurrence at Mulgeum site need to focus on BOD, DO and $PO_4-P$.

Application Strategies of Eye-tracking Method in Nightscape Evaluation (야간경관 평가에서의 아이트래킹 분석 적용 연구)

  • Kang, Youngeun;Kim, Mintai
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Landscape Architecture
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    • v.43 no.4
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    • pp.87-97
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    • 2015
  • There's a trend towards vitalization of nightscape planning businesses nationally and locally as well for city image making and activation of regional economy, but there is still no systematic nightscape planning going on for lack of relevant researches and objective evaluations. This study aims to suggest the guideline for nightscape planning by conducting an eye tracking experiment and survey for recognizing the characteristics of a nightscape. Furthermore, the authors intended to verify the eye-tracking method as a tool for landscape evaluation. The research site was restricted in the campus of Virginia Tech, VA, and those were selected by experts' survey among various types of nightscape images. The variables for analyzing the characteristics of nightscape images selected were 'preference', 'safety(fear)' and 'clearness'. 'Fixation duration', 'saccade duration', 'scan path length', and 'pupil size' were selected as the eye movement measurements. The results of this study are as follows: The first outcome found was that there were significant differences among the characteristics(preference, safety and clearness) of a nightscape by MANOVA, and these variables were correlated positively by Pearson's correlation. Secondly, there were differences on fixation duration, saccade duration and scan path depending on the nightscape setting statistically. Also, the eye tracking measurement in an open setting was recorded lower than enclosed settings. In the result of a heat map, we found the meaning of the fixated areas on both viewing without intention and viewing intentionally. It turned out that the fixated areas were consistent with the areas the subjects felt preferred and clarity in all of the nightscape images, which means people usually focus on what they prefer and see clearly in a certain nightscape. Based on this result and previous studies, the authors could make a conclusion that eye tracking method can apply to evaluate nightscape settings in terms of analyzing the whole characteristics and finding specific points for the detailed analysis as well. Therefore, these results can contribute by suggesting nightscape planning, implication of the landscape evaluation, and implication of the eye tracking study.

Relationships between Fatty Acids and Tocopherols of Conventional and Genetically Modified Peanut Cultivars Grown in the United States (미국산 전통품종과 유전자 재조합 땅콩품종의 지방산과 토코페롤의 상관관계)

  • Shin, Eui-Cheol
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Food Science and Nutrition
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    • v.42 no.10
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    • pp.1618-1628
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    • 2013
  • Relationships between fatty acids and tocopherols in conventional and genetically modified peanut cultivars were studied by gas chromatography with flame ion detector and high performance liquid chromatography with fluorescence detection. Eight fatty acids and four tocopherol isomers in the sample set were identified and quantified. Oleic acid and linoleic acid are major fatty acids and the ratio of oleic and linoleic acids ranged from 1.11 to 16.26. Tocopherols contents were 6.76 to 12.24 for ${\alpha}$-tocopherol (T), 0.08 to 0.39 for ${\beta}$-T, 5.28 to 15.02 for ${\gamma}$-T, and 0.17 to 1.17 mg/100 g for ${\delta}$-T. Correlation coefficient (r) for fatty acids and tocopherols indicated a strong inverse relationship between oleic & linoleic acids (r=-0.97, P<0.05) and positive relationships between palmitic & linoleic acids (r=0.95, P<0.05) and ${\gamma}$-T & ${\delta}$-T (r=0.83, P<0.05). Principal component analysis (PCA) of fatty acids and tocopherols gave four significant principal components (PCs, with eigenvalues>1), which together account for 85.49% of the total variance in the data set with PC1 and PC2 contributing 45.27% and 21.33% of the total variability, respectively. Eigen analysis of the correlation matrix loadings of the four significant PCs revealed that PC1 was mainly contributed by palmitic, oleic, linoleic, and gondoic acids, while PC2 was by behenic acid, ${\beta}$-T, and ${\gamma}$-T. The score plot generated by PC1-PC2 identified sample clusters in the two spatial planes based on the oleic and linoleic acids. The score plot PC3-PC4 didn't separate sample groups.

Rapid comparison of metabolic equivalence of standard medicinal parts from medicinal plants and their in vitro-generated adventitious roots using FT-IR spectroscopy (한약자원 품목별 표준시료와 기내 생산 부정근의 FT-IR 스펙트럼 기반 대사체 동등성 신속 비교)

  • Ahn, Myung Suk;Min, Sung Ran;Jie, Eun Yee;So, Eun Jin;Choi, So Yeon;Moon, Byeong Cheol;Kang, Young Min;Park, So-Young;Kim, Suk Weon
    • Journal of Plant Biotechnology
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    • v.42 no.3
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    • pp.257-264
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    • 2015
  • To determine whether metabolite fingerprinting for whole cell extracts based on Fourier transform infrared (FT-IR) spectroscopy can be used to discriminate and compare metabolic equivalence, standard medicinal parts from four medicinal plants (Cynanchum wilfordii Hemsley, Atractylodes japonica Koidz, Polygonum multiflorum Thunberg and Astragalus membranaceus Bunge) and their in vitro-produced adventitious roots were analyzed by FT-IR spectroscopy. The principal component analysis (PCA) and partial least square discriminant analysis (PLS-DA) from the FT-IR spectral data showed that the whole metabolic pattern from Cynanchum wilfordii was highly similar to Astragalus membranaceus. However, Atractylodes japonica and Polygonum multiflorum showed significantly different metabolic patterns. Furthermore, adventitious roots from Cynanchum wilfordii and Astragalus membranaceus also showed similar metabolic patterns compared to their standard medicinal parts. These results clearly show that mass proliferation of adventitious roots may be applied to aquire novel supply of standard medicinal parts from medicinal plants. However, the whole metabolic pattern from adventitious roots of Atractylodes japonica and Polygonum multiflorum were not similar to their standard medicinal parts. Furthermore, FT-IR spectroscopy combined with multivariate analyses established in this study may be applied as an alternative tool to discriminate the whole metabolic equivalence from several standard medicinal parts. Thus, we suggest that these metabolic discrimination systems may be applied for metabolic standardization of herbal medicinal resources.

Application of SP Monitoring in the Pohang Geothermal Field (포항 지열 개발지역에서의 SP 장기 관측)

  • Lim Seong Keun;Lee Tae Jong;Song Yoonho;Song Sung-Ho;Yasukawa Kasumi;Cho Byong Wook;Song Young Soo
    • Geophysics and Geophysical Exploration
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    • v.7 no.3
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    • pp.164-173
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    • 2004
  • To delineate geothermal water movement at the Pohang geothermal development site, Self-Potential (SP) survey and monitoring were carried out during pumping tests. Before drilling, background SP data have been gathered to figure out overall potential distribution of the site. The pumping test was performed in two separate periods: 24 hours in December 2003 and 72 hours in March 2004. SP monitoring started several days before the pumping tests with a 128-channel automatic recording system. The background SP survey showed a clear positive anomaly at the northern part of the boreholes, which may be interpreted as an up-flow Bone of the deep geothermal water due to electrokinetic potential generated by hydrothermal circulation. The first and second SP monitoring during the pumping tests performed to figure out the fluid flow in the geothermal reservoir but it was not easy to see clear variations of SP due to pumping and pumping stop. Since the area is covered by some 360 m-thick tertiary sediments with very low electrical resistivity (less than 10 ohm-m), the electrokinetic potential due to deep groundwater flow resulted in being seriously attenuated on the surface. However, when we compared the variation of SP with that of groundwater level and temperature of pumping water, we could identify some areas responsible to the pumping. Dominant SP changes are observed in the south-west part of the boreholes during both the preliminary and long-term pumping periods, where 3-D magnetotelluric survey showed low-resistivity anomaly at the depth of $600m\~1,000m$. Overall analysis suggests that there exist hydraulic connection through the southwestern part to the pumping well.

Optimum Radiotherapy Schedule for Uterine Cervical Cancer based-on the Detailed Information of Dose Fractionation and Radiotherapy Technique (처방선량 및 치료기법별 치료성적 분석 결과에 기반한 자궁경부암 환자의 최적 방사선치료 스케줄)

  • Cho, Jae-Ho;Kim, Hyun-Chang;Suh, Chang-Ok;Lee, Chang-Geol;Keum, Ki-Chang;Cho, Nam-Hoon;Lee, Ik-Jae;Shim, Su-Jung;Suh, Yang-Kwon;Seong, Jinsil;Kim, Gwi-Eon
    • Radiation Oncology Journal
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    • v.23 no.3
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    • pp.143-156
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    • 2005
  • Background: The best dose-fractionation regimen of the definitive radiotherapy for cervix cancer remains to be clearly determined. It seems to be partially attributed to the complexity of the affecting factors and the lack of detailed information on external and intra-cavitary fractionation. To find optimal practice guidelines, our experiences of the combination of external beam radiotherapy (EBRT) and high-dose-rate intracavitary brachytherapy (HDR-ICBT) were reviewed with detailed information of the various treatment parameters obtained from a large cohort of women treated homogeneously at a single institute. Materials and Methods: The subjects were 743 cervical cancer patients (Stage IB 198, IIA 77, IIB 364, IIIA 7, IIIB 89 and IVA 8) treated by radiotherapy alone, between 1990 and 1996. A total external beam radiotherapy (EBRT) dose of $23.4\~59.4$ Gy (Median 45.0) was delivered to the whole pelvis. High-dose-rate intracavitary brachytherapy (HDR-IBT) was also peformed using various fractionation schemes. A Midline block (MLB) was initiated after the delivery of $14.4\~43.2$ Gy (Median 36.0) of EBRT in 495 patients, while In the other 248 patients EBRT could not be used due to slow tumor regression or the huge initial bulk of tumor. The point A, actual bladder & rectal doses were individually assessed in all patients. The biologically effective dose (BED) to the tumor ($\alpha/\beta$=10) and late-responding tissues ($\alpha/\beta$=3) for both EBRT and HDR-ICBT were calculated. The total BED values to point A, the actual bladder and rectal reference points were the summation of the EBRT and HDR-ICBT. In addition to all the details on dose-fractionation, the other factors (i.e. the overall treatment time, physicians preference) that can affect the schedule of the definitive radiotherapy were also thoroughly analyzed. The association between MD-BED $Gy_3$ and the risk of complication was assessed using serial multiple logistic regression models. The associations between R-BED $Gy_3$ and rectal complications and between V-BED $Gy_3$ and bladder complications were assessed using multiple logistic regression models after adjustment for age, stage, tumor size and treatment duration. Serial Coxs proportional hazard regression models were used to estimate the relative risks of recurrence due to MD-BED $Gy_{10}$, and the treatment duration. Results: The overall complication rate for RTOG Grades $1\~4$ toxicities was $33.1\%$. The 5-year actuarial pelvic control rate for ail 743 patients was $83\%$. The midline cumulative BED dose, which is the sum of external midline BED and HDR-ICBT point A BED, ranged from 62.0 to 121.9 $Gy_{10}$ (median 93.0) for tumors and from 93.6 to 187.3 $Gy_3$ (median 137.6) for late responding tissues. The median cumulative values of actual rectal (R-BED $Gy_3$) and bladder Point BED (V-BED $Gy_3$) were 118.7 $Gy_3$ (range $48.8\~265.2$) and 126.1 $Gy_3$ (range: $54.9\~267.5$), respectively. MD-BED $Gy_3$ showed a good correlation with rectal (p=0.003), but not with bladder complications (p=0.095). R-BED $Gy_3$ had a very strong association (p=<0.0001), and was more predictive of rectal complications than A-BED $Gy_3$. B-BED $Gy_3$ also showed significance in the prediction of bladder complications in a trend test (p=0.0298). No statistically significant dose-response relationship for pelvic control was observed. The Sandwich and Continuous techniques, which differ according to when the ICR was inserted during the EBRT and due to the physicians preference, showed no differences in the local control and complication rates; there were also no differences in the 3 vs. 5 Gy fraction size of HDR-ICBT. Conclusion: The main reasons optimal dose-fractionation guidelines are not easily established is due to the absence of a dose-response relationship for tumor control as a result of the high-dose gradient of HDR-ICBT, individual differences In tumor responses to radiation therapy and the complexity of affecting factors. Therefore, in our opinion, there is a necessity for individualized tailored therapy, along with general guidelines, in the definitive radiation treatment for cervix cancer. This study also demonstrated the strong predictive value of actual rectal and bladder reference dosing therefore, vaginal gauze packing might be very Important. To maintain the BED dose to less than the threshold resulting in complication, early midline shielding, the HDR-ICBT total dose and fractional dose reduction should be considered.