• Korea journal of population studies
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• v.32 no.2
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• pp.59-85
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• 2009

본 연구는 최근 인구학에서 공간적 접근을 시도하는 논의들이 활발해지는 경향과 함께 지역 적합적 저출산 대응정책의 필요성의 대두라는 정책적 수요에 부합하고자 자녀출산계획에 있어 지역의 공간적 효과가 미치는 효과를 분석하였다. 또한, 기혼여성의 연령, 출산한 자녀의 수가 자녀를 출산할 계획을 가질 확률에 대한 비선형적 효과를 실증적으로 분석하였다. 다층모형과 같이 최근 지역연구에서 이용되고 있는 실증분석방법들의 한계점을 살펴보고, 그 대안으로 Geo-Additive Model을 적용하였다. 동 방법론은 한 모형 내에서 공간의 구조적 효과와 비구조적 효과, 연속형 변인의 비선형효과 등을 동시에 추정할 수 있다. 이를 위한 분석자료로 통계청의 2005년도 인구주택총조사의 마이크로데이터 중 2% B형 자료를 이용하였다. 분석결과 기혼여성이 자녀를 출산할 계획을 가질 확률에 기혼여성의 연령과 출산한 자녀의 수는 비선형적 효과를 주었으며, 특히 각 개인들은 현재의 출산 상태에서 자녀 한명을 추가로 출산하는 것이 동일한 부담으로 작용하지 않음을 알 수 있었다. 이를 통해 기혼여성들의 첫출산 시점이 결혼연령에 따라 차이가 있고 결혼코호트에 따라 다르더라도 첫출산 자체가 여전히 보편적인 현상이라는 가정을 받아들인다면, 출산율 제고를 위한 정책의 대상은 첫째아를 이미 출산한 여성들이 되어야 할 것으로 보인다. 또한, 자녀를 출산할 계획을 가질 확률에 지역의 구조적 공간효과가 유의미한 영향을 주는 것으로 분석되었다. 지역별 합계출산율의 공간 자기상관분석 결과와 비교해 본 결과 출산계획의 구조적 공간효과가 양의 효과를 미치는 지역에서는 실제 출산행위인 합계출산율도 높지만, 구조적 공간효과가 부적인 효과를 가지고 있는 지역에서는 합계출산율도 낮게 나타남을 알 수 있었다. 따라서 각 지방자치단체에서는 지자체들의 정책수요나 자원 및 재정의 부담능력 등 지역별 차이를 고려하지 않은 일률적인 정책의 추진을 지양하고, 지역 특수성을 고려하여 지역에 적합한 출산정책을 추진해야 할 것이다.

• Korea journal of population studies
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• v.35 no.1
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• pp.31-52
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• 2012

The purpose of this study is to analyze the effectiveness of policies in response to low fertility in Korea. Using a recent nationwide survey on marriage and fertility, this study analyzes the effect of low fertility policies on plan of further birth among young married women according to the number of their children. Awareness of polices in response to low fertility is relatively high, showing the great differences among policy measures. In contrast, the degree of polices in response to low fertility is very low. ranging from 2.0% to 27.6%. The distribution of awareness and experience is different according to the number of children. The results of logistic regression analysis show that awareness of polices in response to low fertility such as economic support, promotion of equality of the sexes significantly affects on plan of further birth. However, this effects disappear when we apply parity specific approach. For example, the plan for first child is quite universal as no difference is found by their awareness of policies in response to low fertility. Similar results are found in married women having plan for second child and third child. With respect to the degree of experience of policies in response to low fertility, the results show that economic support, work-family coexistence, and promotion of equality of the sexes significantly affects the plan of further birth. Like awareness of policies in response to low fertility, these effects disappear as we apply parity specific approach. The results indicate that the effect of policies in response to low fertility differs by the current number of children. Thus, consideration of such difference would help us deepen our understanding of fertility behaviors and polices in response to low fertility.

• Journal of Family Resource Management and Policy Review
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• v.18 no.2
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• pp.163-182
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• 2014

This study examined the effects of informal grandparent-provided child care and support on married women's additional birth plans. This study applied panel data analysis to three waves of the Korean Longitudinal Survey of Women and Family (KLoWF) and obtained two major findings, as follows. First, having a mother-in-law and co-residing with parents-in-law had a positive influence on married working women's additional birth plans. Child care provision from the parents of a married working woman also positively influenced her additional birth plans. Second, the analysis showed that housework assistance from a woman's mother-in-law or mother had no effect on her birth plans in both models investigated: the additional birth plan model for all women, both employed and unemployed, and the additional birth plan model for only working women. In conclusion, the findings of this study demonstrated that child care availability, with grandparents as the trusted providers, is a more important factor in married women's additional birth plans than housework assistance from their mothers-in-law and mothers.

• Korea journal of population studies
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• v.30 no.2
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• pp.97-116
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• 2007

As the fertility level in Korea continues to drop with detrimental implications for the society, it has regained much attention of academics and policy makers. This study, building on the previous research on fertility behavior, attempts to explore the plan of young married women to have an additional child. While such plan is not always put into practice, it is still closely related to fertility behavior. In addition, it can provide useful clues to understanding behavior in the future. Utilizing a recent nationwide survey on marriage and fertility, the study analyzes the plan of further birth among young married women according to the number of their children. The results show that the plan for first child is quite universal as no difference is found by their socioeconomic and demographic characteristics. However, having plan for second child differs by the work status of husbands, presence of mother of young married women, and the sex of first child. The effects of first two factors suggest that young married women take into consideration stability of home economics and availability of care sharing. As for the plan for the child, the present and ideal sex composition of children appear most important. The results indicate that the mechanism of fertility progression differs by the current number of children. Thus, consideration of such differential would help us deepen our understanding of fertility behaviors and need to reflect in the study. The study also argues that comprehensive and systematic qualitative research should be accompanied by to capture complexity of fertility decision making process.

• Journal of Families and Better Life
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• v.28 no.6
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• pp.59-69
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• 2010

This study is to understand the determinants affecting women's fertility behavior (additional fertility plan) using the Korean Longitudinal Survey of Women & Families of 2007. Patterns of married women's life courses are divided into five groups depending on family role and economic activity: family-centered (no work experience) type, latent M type, M type, work-family reconciliation type, and first job entry type. This study performs a binomial logistic regression analysis and the key findings from the study are summarized as follows. First, five distinctive patterns show the different composition: family-centered type (4.5%), latent M type (69.6%), M type (10.4%), work-family reconciliation type (7.4%), and first job entry type (8.1%). Second, socio-economic characteristics, husband characteristics, and value characteristics are statistically significant to additional fertility behavior ; however, institutional character is not significant. Finally, significant factors affecting additional fertility plans vary in different patterns of life courses. Based on these results, this study suggests some policy implications and future research directions.