• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.32 no.4
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• pp.517-541
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• 2019

According to the OECD (2015) and UN (2017), Korea was classified as an immigration country. The designation as an immigration country means that net migration will remain positive and international migration is likely to affect population growth. KOSTAT (2011) used a model with more than 15 parameters to divide sexes, immigration and emigration based on the Wilson (2010) model, which takes into account population migration factors. Five years later, we assume the average of domestic net migration rate for the last five years and foreign government policy likely quota. However, both of these results were conservative estimates of international migration and provide different results than those used by the OECD and UN to classify an immigration country. In this paper, we proposed a stochastic projection on international migration using nonparametric model (FDM by Hyndman and Ullah (2007) and Coherent FDM by Hyndman et al. (2013)) that uses a functional data model for the international migration data of Korea from 2000-2017, noting the international migration such as immigration, emigration and net migration is non-linear and not linear. According to the result, immigration rate will be 1.098(male), 1.026(female) in 2018 and 1.228(male), 1.152(female) in 2025 per 1000 population, and the emigration rate will be 0.907(male), 0.879(female) in 2018 and 0.987(male), 0.959(female) in 2025 per 1000 population. Thus the net migration is expected to increase to 0.191(male), 0.148(female) in 2018 and 0.241(male), 0.192(female) in 2025 per 1000 population.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.33 no.4
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• pp.421-437
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• 2020

This paper implemented a method to predict the fertility rate, mortality rate, and international migration rate using the R program, which has been widely used in recent years, that calculates population projection by substituting the results into the Leslie matrix. In particular, the generalization log gamma model for the fertility rate by Kaneko (2003), LC-ER model for mortality rate by Li et al. (2013), and functional data model for international migration rates proposed by Ramsay and Silverman (2005) and Hyndman and Booth (2008), Hyndman et al. (2013) can be directly demonstrated with R programs. Demography and bayesPop have been introduced as a representative demographic package implemented in R; however, it can be analyzed only for data uploaded to Human Mortality Database (HMD) and Human Fertility Database (HFD) with data changes and modifications requiring application of other data. In particular, in Korea, there is a limitation in applying this package because it is provided only for short-term data in HMD. This paper introduces an R program that can reflect this situation and the different patterns of low fertility, aging, migration of domestic and foreigners in Korea, and derives a population projection for the year 2117.

• International Area Studies Review
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• v.21 no.4
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• pp.125-139
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• 2017

This study analyzes the determinants and patterns of regional migration in Myanmar. Population migration is affected by various factors such as economic and social factors as well as regional characteristics. It is affected by factors such as income, employment and social overhead capital. Therefore, this study attempts to analyze the following two research problems. First, I would like to analyze whether the reform and opening of Myanmar is causing the migration of rural to urban population. Myanmar is also trying to verify the pattern of population migration experienced by other developing countries. Second, we analyze the impact of social overhead capital on population migration in Myanmar. We analyze the impact of basic infrastructure such as roads, electricity and water on population movements. This will give implications for investment policy decision of social overhead capital for balanced regional development. First, the pattern of population migration in Myanmar is shifting from rural to urban areas, as other developing countries have experienced. Myanmar's urban areas of Yangon and Mandalay have been analyzed as having migration. Second, the expansion of social overhead capital was found to have an impact. Social overhead capital such as roads and educational environments were analyzed to have the capacity to inhale the population. Especially, the educational environment of the region has a great effect on population migration. It is analyzed that education reform is an important policy issue for the balanced regional development of Myanmar. Fourth, employment opportunities were analyzed to have the greatest impact on Myanmar population movements. In the early stage of economic development, it is analyzed that the population moves to a region where employment opportunity is high in the situation where foreign capital is coming in. It is analyzed that the direction of inflow of foreign capital and the imbalance of development in the region will be determined in the situation where the economic development is carried out through foreign capital.

• 주택과사람들
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• s.197
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• pp.88-89
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• 2006

미래 도시계획 학자들은 출생률 저하와 고령화가 심각해지면서 도심의 공동화가 심화될 것이라고 한다. 또 첨단 시대에 더욱 효과적인 주택 및 부동산 정책을 펴기 위해서는 미래의 인구 이동과 도시 변화에 대해 예측ㆍ분석해야 한다고 지적한다. '첨단기술 발전과 미래 도시계획'이라는 주제로 개최된 국제 포럼에서 미래 학자들의 아이디어와 식견을 들어보자.

• Korea journal of population studies
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• v.29 no.1
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• pp.25-56
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• 2006

This study attempts to review the increasing trend in international marriage of Koreans since 1990 and explore the pattern of socio-demographic characteristics of the married couples. This paper develops a conceptual scheme for changing pattern of nuptiality including an increase in international marriage. As the key forces behind the recent increase in international marriage of Koreans, the effects of rapid decline in fertility, rise in sex ratio at birth, urbanward migration of young women, expansion of gender-equity norms, and globalization are stressed. Micro-data from the marriage registration for the period $1990{\sim}2004$ and the divorce registration for the period $2000{\sim}2004$ are utilized. This study focuses on analyzing age at marriage, previous marital experience, education, occupation, and residence of the married couples. Attention is also focused on demographic characteristics of the divorced couples. Results of analyses reveal that there exists a great deal of diversity in international marriage of Koreans. A notable aspect is the profound differences between Korean men and women in the characteristics of their foreign spouses and themselves as well. Another prominent factor emphasized in the analysis is the nationality of foreign spouse. It is indicated that the stereotype of international marriage facilitated by marriage squeeze can be mainly applied to marriages between Korean men and foreign wives from China, southeast Asian countries and the CIS of the old Soviet Union. On the other hand, direct effects of value transformation and globalization are emphasized in the explanation of marriages between Korean men and foreign wives from more developed countries as well as marriages between Korean women and foreign husbands.

• The Journal of the Convergence on Culture Technology
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• v.9 no.3
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• pp.95-102
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• 2023

This study aims to empirically verify the moderating effect of population drop on the relationship between demographic changes and crime decline in local cities facing population decline in Korea. The study employs changes in the population of young adults, men, elderly, foreign residents, and population movement as factors of demographic changes, including types of the city as a control variable in the research model. The rate of change in population drop is used as a moderator variable and the rate of change in crime decline as a dependent variable. Data are collected from 155 cities with declining populations from 2010 to 2022 through KOSIS, the National Statistics Portal, and information disclosure requests. Data collected are analyzed using moderated regression analysis. In the first and second stages of the analysis, they show that changes in the population of young adults, population movement, foreign people, population drop, and the type of city affect the change in crime. Moderated regression analysis shows that only the interaction terms among changes in the population of young adults, changes in population movement, and changes in the population of foreigners and the population drop affects change in crime significantly.

• TTA Journal
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• s.37
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• pp.60-70
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• 1995

미래육상이동통신시스템(FPLMTS-Future Public Land Mobile Telecommunication Systems)은 2000년대초 서비스를 목표로 ITU-R에서 권고(안)을 작성하고 있는 제3세대 이동통신시스템(TGMS-Third Generation Mobile System)이다. FPLMTS의 기본목적중의 하나는 이동전화, 코드리스폰, 이동데이터, 위성 등 다양한 시스템을 통합하여 제한된 무선접속을 통해 일체화된 이동통신 서비스를 제공하는 것이다. 또한 FPLMTS는 사용자들로 하여금 어느 나라에서나 통화할 수 있도록 함으로써 이용자들에게 국제로밍을 제공하고, 넓은 지역을 관할하면서 인구가 희박한 지역에도 효과적으로 서비스를 제공할 수 있도록 지상망과 위성망을 연동한다. 본 보고서는 FPLMTS의 권고(안) 작성을 담당하고 있는 ITU-R TG8/1의 국제표준화동향 및 기술동향에 관한 정보를 수집/분석한 내용을 담고 있다. 이 보고서가 국내 이동통신분야, 특히 개인통신서비스 개발의 정확한 방향정립과 연구개발에 도움이 되었으면 한다.

• Journal of the Korean association of regional geographers
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• v.16 no.3
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• pp.275-294
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• 2010

In recent years, international migration of professional workers is significantly increasing as globalization has been deepened more and more. South Korea is not an exception for this case. Immigration of professional workers have steadily increased since 2000 in Korea, and the number reached approximately to 50,000 in 2009. In addition, it is a major trend that immigrants of short-sojourn are decreasing and ones of long-sojourn increasing. Our research shows that foreign language instructor has the greatest number of foreign professional immigrants. The next is professional immigrants related to business-activities. There are considerably entertainers, but they have greatly decreased since 2003. Majority of foreign professional immigrants settle down in a few metropolises. Especially, they reside in Seoul Metropolitan Area and Southeast coastal region. Professional immigrants trend to do with Korean on the base of their offices rather than residental communities in terms of adaptation, and they do not have strong will to reside permanently in Korea. Moreover, they are located at a blind spot of Korean government's foreign immigrant policy, comparing to foreign workers and female marriage immigrants.

• Journal of Teachers' Pension
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• v.3
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• pp.161-205
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• 2018

최근 글로벌화의 시대의 도래로 인하여 과거와는 달리 사람들의 국제적 이동이 빈번하게 발생하고 있다. 과거보다 잦은 국제 인구이동으로 인하여 각 국가 간 조세협약이 매우 중요해졌으며, 이제는 과세측면도 양국가간의 조세협약에 따라 과세를 하여야 한다. 본 연구는 이러한 상황 하에서 연금수령 시 국가 간 조세측면을 고려하였을 때 과세형평의 문제점을 살펴보고 이에 대한 개선방안을 제시하고자 한다. 과거에 비하여 최근의 연금세제 또한 많은 변화를 가져오고 있어 이제는 한 국가 내에서 만의 연금세제를 고려할 것이 아니라 글로벌화 시대에 부응하는 연금세제로의 변화가 필요하다. 이러한 주된 이유로는 국제이동 인력의 증가로 거주지국 과세원칙과 원천지국 과세원칙의 혼용뿐만 아니라 전세계소득(world-wide income)에 대하여 과세가 되므로 국제적인 이중과세의 위험에도 직면하게 되기 때문이다. 본 연구는 이러한 상황을 감안하여 최근 급증하고 있는 해외 이민지들에 대한 국제적 연금조세 측면을 살펴보고자 하였다. 해외에 거주하는 사학연금 가입자에게 발생하는 과세상의 문제점을 구체적으로 살펴보고 이에 대한 개선책을 살펴보고자 하였다. 해외거주 연금수령자는 국내에서 지급하는 연금에 대하여도 전세계소득으로 해외 세무당국에 보고를 하도록 하고 있는데, 국민연금은 각 국 간의 사회보장협약의 체결로 인하여 과세를 하지 않는 반면, 특수직역연금 수령에 대하여는 거주지국의 전세계소득에 포함되어 국외 거주지국 과세대상에 포함되는 문제점이 있다. 특히 캐나다에서 연금을 수령하는 경우에는 더욱 확연한 차이가 나타나게 된다. 본 연구에서는 다음과 같이 주장하고자 한다. 첫째, 한국·캐나다 조세협약 제18조의 수정을 통해 현행 사학연금 수급자의 연금소득에 대하여 비과세할 필요가 있다. 사회보장법률에 따라 지급하는 연금에 대하여 비과세하는 현행 문구를 한국의 공적연금으로부터 지급하는 연금으로 지급하는 급부로 수정할 필요가 있다. 둘째로 사회보장법률에 의해 지급하는 연금을 별도로 언급할 필요가 있다. 이를 통해 국민연금 가입자와 특수직역연금 가입자 간의 과세 형평성을 달성할 필요가 있다. 본 연구는 기존연구에서 간과되었던 연금세제의 국제적인 측면을 중심으로 국제적 인력의 이동에 따른 연금세제의 변화를 살펴보고자 하였다. 특히 최근에 우리나라 사람들이 가장 많이 이민을 가고 있는 캐나다를 중심으로 연금세제 측면을 살펴보고자 하였다는 측면에서 연구의 의의가 있다고 할 수 있다. 본 연구에서 제시된 정책적인 제안은 과세당국과 해외 연금수급자에게 편익을 제공할 것으로 본다.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.33 no.2
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• pp.185-201
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• 2020

Scenario population projection reflects the high probability of future realization and ease of statistical interpretation. Statistics Korea (2019) also presents the results of 30 combinations, including special scenarios, as official statistics. However, deterministic population projections provide limited information about future uncertainties with several limitations that are not probabilistic. The deterministic population projections are scenario-based estimates and show a perfect autocorrelation of three factors (birth, death, movement) of population variation over time. Therefore, international organizations UN, the Max Planck Population Research Institute (MPIDR) of Germany and the Vienna Population Research Institute (VID) of Austria have suggested stochastic based population estimates. In addition, some National Statistics Offices have also adopted this method to provide information along with the scenario results. This paper calculates the demographics of Korea based on a probabilistic or stochastic basis and then draws the pros and cons and show implications of the scenario (deterministic) population projections.