• New & Renewable Energy
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• v.3 no.3
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• pp.63-71
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• 2007

본 연구의 목적은 3차원 풍력터빈 블레이드 최적형상설계를 위한 실용적이고 효율적인 설계과정을 구현하는 것이다. 국내 연안의 해상풍력에 적용하기 위해서 통계적 모델을 이용하여 풍황자료를 분석하였다. 설계에 관련된 많은 수의 설계변수를 효과적으로 관리하기 위해서 설계과정은 운용조건 최적화와 블레이드 형상설계의 2단계로 구성하였다. 실험계획법에 의해 추출된 각 운용조건 설계점은 형상설계를 위한 입력 값으로 제공된다. 형상설계 단계에서는 최소에너지손실 조건과 결합된 BEMT를 이용하여 각 블레이드 단면에서의 시위길이와 피치각 분포를 최적화하였다. 블레이드 단면 익형은 NREL S830을 이용하였고, 익형의 공력성능은 XFOIL을 이용하여 예측하였다. 설계된 블레이드 형상의 성능해석을 수행하고 그 결과를 바탕으로 반응면을 구성하였다. 좀 더 나은 성능을 가진 블레이드 형상을 찾기 위해서 초기설계공간에서 확률적 방법을 이용하여 타당성 있는 설계공간까지 운용조건 설계변수를 이동시키고 구배최적화 기법을 통해 각각의 제약함수를 만족하면서 연간에너지생산량을 최대로 하는 최적블레이드 형상을 구현하였다. 제시된 최적설계과정은 풍력터빈블레이드 개발에 실용적이고 신뢰성 있는 설계툴로서 사용이 가능하다.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.36 no.1
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• pp.105-115
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• 2003

The computation model which evaluates combined hydraulic and mechanical reliability, is developed to analyze the integrated reliability in water distribution system. The hydraulic reliability is calculated by considering uncertain variables like water demand, hydraulic pressure, pipe roughness as random variables according to proper distribution type. The mechanical reliability is evaluated by analyzing the effect of pipe network with sequential failure of network components. The result of this study model applied to the real pipe network shows that this model can be used to simulate the uncertain factors effectively in real pipe network. Therefore, The pipe-line engineers can design and manage the network system with more quantitative reliability, through applying this model to reliable pipe network design and diagnosis of existing systems.

• Journal of the Institute of Electronics Engineers of Korea SP
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• v.48 no.5
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• pp.16-22
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• 2011

This paper presents the multi-object tracking approach using the background difference and particle filtering by monte carlo sampling. We apply particle filters based on probabilistic importance sampling to multi-object independently. We formulate the object observation model by the histogram distribution using color information and the object dynaminc model for the object motion information. Our approach does not increase computational complexity and derive stable performance. We implement the whole Bayesian maximum likelihood framework and describes robust methods coping with the real-world object tracking situation by the observation and transition model.

• Proceedings of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute Conference
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• 2002.10a
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• pp.17-24
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• 2002

인발성형 적층 FRP 복합소재의 재료상수는 일반적으로 시편실험을 통해 구해지고 있으나, 본 논문에서는, 실험에서 구한 탄성계수가 부재일 경우를 위해, Micromechanics와 Classical Laminate Theory (CLT)를 이용한 적층 FRP 복합재료의 탄성계수(E/sub L/과 E/sup b//sub L/) 예측모델을 제시하였다 또한 예측모델로부터 구한 값과 실험으로부터 얻은 실측값을 비교하여 그 적정성을 검증하였고, 예측모델의 민감도 및 확률적인 특성을 구성소재 (Constituents)의 재료특성에 근거해 평가하였다.

• Tunnel and Underground Space
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• v.11 no.2
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• pp.156-166
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• 2001

A stochastic continuum(SC) modeling technique was developed to simulate the groundwater flow pathway in fractured rocks. This model was developed to overcome the disadvantageous points of discrete fracture network(DFN) modes which has the limitation of fracture numbers. Besides, SC model is able to perform probabilistic analysis and to simulate the conductive groundwater pathway as discrete fracture network model. The SC model was formulated based on the discrete fracture network(DFN) model. The spatial distribution of permeability in the stochastic continuum model was defined by the probability distribution and variogram functions defined from the permeabilities of subdivided smaller blocks of the DFN model. The analysis of groundwater travel time was performed to show the consistency between DFN and SC models by the numerical experiment. It was found that the stochastic continuum modes was an appropriate way to provide the probability density distribution of groundwater velocity which is required for the probabilistic safety assessment of a radioactive waste disposal facility.

• Journal of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute of Korea
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• v.18 no.3
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• pp.291-302
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• 2005

Due to the importance of the parameter in structural response, the uncertain elastic modulus was located at the center of stochastic analysis, where the response variability caused by the uncertain system parameters is pursued. However when we analyze the so-called stochastic systems, as many parameters as possible must be included in the analysis if we want to obtain the response variability that can reach a true one, even in an approximate sense. In this paper, a formulation to determine the statistical behavior of in-plane structures due to multiple uncertain material parameters, i.e., elastic modulus and Poisson's ratio, is suggested. To this end, the polynomial expansion on the coefficients of constitutive matrix is employed. In constructing the modified auto-and cross-correlation functions, use is made of the general equation for n-th moment. For the computational purpose, the infinite series of stochastic sub-stiffness matrices is truncated preserving required accuracy. To demons4rate the validity of the proposed formulation, an exemplary example is analyzed and the results are compared with those obtained by means of classical Monte Carlo simulation, which is based on the local averaging scheme.

• Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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• v.5 no.2 s.18
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• pp.181-193
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• 2004

A life cycle cost analysis model for public water supply systems should be different from the ones for other civil and architectural facilities as the operation and the maintenance cost of the water supply systems mainly come from the various mechanical systems and the pipeline systems of the collecting/treating/distributing facilities. This paper presents a cost classification scheme and a probabilistic life cycle cost analysis (PLCCA) model for public water supply systems. A value analysis (VA) procedure that is well suited for practical purposes is also presented. The presented probabilistic life cycle model and the value analysis procedure were applied to a real world project, and this case study is discussed in the paper. The model and the procedure presented in this study can greatly contribute to the value-oriented design alternative selection, the estimation of the maintenance cost, and the allocation of budget for water supply system construction projects.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.45 no.3
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• pp.263-274
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• 2012

Recently, due to various climate variabilities, extreme rainfall events have been occurring all over the world. Extreme rainfall events in Korea mainly result from the summer typhoon storms and the localized convective storms. In order to estimate appropriate quantiles for extreme rainfall, this study considered the probability behavior of daily rainfall from the typhoons and the convective storms which compose the annual maximum rainfalls (AMRs). The conventional rainfall frequency analysis estimates rainfall quantiles based on the assumption that the AMRs are extracted from an identified single population, whereas this study employed a mixed distribution function to incorporate the different statistical characteristics of two types of rainfalls into the hydrologic frequency analysis. Selecting 15 rainfall gauge stations where contain comparatively large number of measurements of daily rainfall, for various return periods, quantiles of daily rainfalls were estimated and analyzed in this study. The results indicate that the mixed Gumbel distribution locally results in significant gains and losses in quantiles. This would provide useful information in designing flood protection systems.

• The Korean Journal of Financial Studies
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• v.8 no.1
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• pp.99-116
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• 2002

본 연구는 우리나라가 1996년 외환자유화와 자본자유화로 특징지워지는 국가들의 국제조직인 OECD에 가입한 이후 국내주식시장에서 환위험과 세계시장위험에 조건부로 가격보상이 이루어지고 있는가를 가격결정모형의 가장 일반적 형태인 확률적 할인요소를 이용하여 검정하였다. 무조건부 가격결정모형을 이용하여 국내주식시장에서 환위험프리미엄과 세계시장위험 프리미엄의 존재를 검정하고자 하는 연구들의 결론들이 일치되지 않고 있는 상황에서 조건부 가격결정모형을 이용한 검정노력은 자연스러운 접근순서로 볼 수 있다. 무조건부 가격결정모형에서 위험프리미엄이 존재하지 않는 것으로 검정되는 경우에도 조건부 프리미엄은 존재할 수 있다. 확률적 할인요소는 국내시장위험, 환위험, 세계시장위험 등 세 가지 위험요인이 포함되도록 정의하였으며, 조건부 정보를 구성하는 도구변수는 기존의 선행연구를 참조하여 6개를 선정하였다. 여기에는 상수, 전기의 국내시장수익률, 현재기의 무위험이자율, 전기의 세계시장수익률, 전기의 부도위험스프레드, 전기의 유로달러이자율이 포함된다. 월별 시계열 자료를 이용하여 가설을 검정한 결과 환위험 프리미엄과 세계시장프리미엄이 모두 존재하는 것으로 나타났다. 이 결과는 외환위기 기간이었던 1997년을 제외하더라도 차이가 없었다. 따라서 기업의 재무결정에서 환위험헤징활동 등이 기업가치창조와 무관하지 않음을 의미하고 있다. 국내시장위험과 세계시장위험이 모두 프리미엄을 요구하고 있음은 우리 국내시장이 세계시장과 완전 통합된 상태는 아님을 보여준다고도 해석될 수 있다.

• The Transactions of the Korea Information Processing Society
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• v.2 no.3
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• pp.364-373
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• 1995

We propose a probabilistic design method and performance analysis in the area of dynamic data structures. We assign two stacks to a block which consists of m contiguous memory cells. Frequencies of delete and insert operations are not fixed, but depend on stack heights. We present various probabilistic schema and a rigorous performance analysis for a random memory allocation. Especially, stack coillision problem is studied and exponential increase of the mean of collision time as mlongrightarrow$\infty$is showed. We also present general mathematical schema which can be applied to the performance problems of finite automata and other computer information systems.