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Development of Evaluation Model for ITS Project using the Probabilistic Risk Analysis (확률적 위험도분석을 이용한 ITS사업의 경제성평가모형)

  • Lee, Yong-Taeck;Nam, Doo-Hee;Lim, Kang-Won
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.23 no.3 s.81
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    • pp.95-108
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    • 2005
  • The purpose of this study is to develop the ITS evaluation model using the Probabilistic Risk Analysis (PRA) methodology and to demonstrate the goodness-of-fit of the large ITS projects through the comparative analysis between DEA and PRA model. The results of this study are summarized below. First, the evaluation mode] using PRA with Monte-Carlo Simulation(MCS) and Latin-Hypercube Sampling(LHS) is developed and applied to one of ITS projects initiated by local government. The risk factors are categorized with cost, benefit and social-economic factors. Then, PDF(Probability Density Function) parameters of these factors are estimated. The log-normal distribution, beta distribution and triangular distribution are well fitted with the market and delivered price. The triangular and uniform distributions are valid in benefit data from the simulation analysis based on the several deployment scenarios. Second, the decision making rules for the risk analysis of projects for cost and economic feasibility study are suggested. The developed PRA model is applied for the Daejeon metropolitan ITS model deployment project to validate the model. The results of cost analysis shows that Deterministic Project Cost(DPC), Deterministic Total Project Cost(DTPC) is the biased percentile values of CDF produced by PRA model and this project need Contingency Budget(CB) because these values are turned out to be less than Target Value(TV;85% value), Also, this project has high risk of DTPC and DPC because the coefficient of variation(C.V) of DTPC and DPC are 4 and 15 which are less than that of DTPC(19-28) and DPC(22-107) in construction and transportation projects. The results of economic analysis shows that total system and subsystem of this project is in type II, which means the project is economically feasible with high risk. Third, the goodness-of-fit of PRA model is verified by comparing the differences of the results between PRA and DEA model. The difference of evaluation indices is up to 68% in maximum. Because of this, the deployment priority of ITS subsystems are changed in each mode1. In results. ITS evaluation model using PRA considering the project risk with the probability distribution is superior to DEA. It makes proper decision making and the risk factors estimated by PRA model can be controlled by risk management program suggested in this paper. Further research not only to build the database of deployment data but also to develop the methodologies estimating the ITS effects with PRA model is needed to broaden the usage of PRA model for the evaluation of ITS projects.

Multiple Linear Analysis for Generating Parametric Images of Irreversible Radiotracer (비가역 방사성추적자 파라메터 영상을 위한 다중선형분석법)

  • Kim, Su-Jin;Lee, Jae-Sung;Lee, Won-Woo;Kim, Yu-Kyeong;Jang, Sung-June;Son, Kyu-Ri;Kim, Hyo-Cheol;Chung, Jin-Wook;Lee, Dong-Soo
    • Nuclear Medicine and Molecular Imaging
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    • v.41 no.4
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    • pp.317-325
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    • 2007
  • Purpose: Biological parameters can be quantified using dynamic PET data with compartment modeling and Nonlinear Least Square (NLS) estimation. However, the generation of parametric images using the NLS is not appropriate because of the initial value problem and excessive computation time. In irreversible model, Patlak graphical analysis (PGA) has been commonly used as an alternative to the NLS method. In PGA, however, the start time ($t^*$, time where linear phase starts) has to be determined. In this study, we suggest a new Multiple Linear Analysis for irreversible radiotracer (MLAIR) to estimate fluoride bone influx rate (Ki). Methods: $[^{18}F]Fluoride$ dynamic PET scans was acquired for 60 min in three normal mini-pigs. The plasma input curve was derived using blood sampling from the femoral artery. Tissue time-activity curves were measured by drawing region of interests (ROls) on the femur head, vertebra, and muscle. Parametric images of Ki were generated using MLAIR and PGA methods. Result: In ROI analysis, estimated Ki values using MLAIR and PGA method was slightly higher than those of NLS, but the results of MLAIR and PGA were equivalent. Patlak slopes (Ki) were changed with different $t^*$ in low uptake region. Compared with PGA, the quality of parametric image was considerably improved using new method. Conclusion: The results showed that the MLAIR was efficient and robust method for the generation of Ki parametric image from $[^{18}F]Fluoride$ PET. It will be also a good alternative to PGA for the radiotracers with irreversible three compartment model.

Evaluation of Perfusion and Image Quality Changes by Reconstruction Methods in 13N-Ammonia Myocardial Perfusion PET/CT (13N-암모니아 심근관류 PET/CT 검사 시 영상 재구성 방법에 따른 관류량 변화와 영상 평가)

  • Do, Yong Ho;Lee, Hong Jae;Kim, Jin Eui
    • The Korean Journal of Nuclear Medicine Technology
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    • v.18 no.1
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    • pp.69-75
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    • 2014
  • Purpose: The aim of this study was to evaluate changes of quantitative and semi-quantitative myocardial perfusion indices and image quality by image reconstruction methods in $^{13}N$-ammonia ($^{13}N-NH_3$) myocardial perfusion PET/CT. Materials and Methods: Data of 14 (8 men, 6 women) patients underwent rest and adenosine stress $^{13}N-NH_3$ PET/CT (Biograph TruePoint 40 with TrueV, Siemens) were collected. Listmode scans were acquired for 10 minutes by injecting 370MBq of $^{13}N-NH_3$. Dynamic and static reconstruction was performed by use of FBP, iterative2D (2D), iterative3D (3D) and iterative TrueX (TrueX) algorithm. Coronary flow reserve (CFR) of dynamic reconstruction data, extent(%) and total perfusion deficit (TPD) (%) measured in sum of 4-10 minutes scan were evaluated by comparing with 2D method which was recommended by vendor. The image quality of each reconstructed data was compared and evaluated by five nuclear medicine physicians through a blind test. Results: CFR were lower in TrueX 18.68% (P=0.0002), FBP 4.35% (P=0.1243) and higher in 3D 7.91% (P<0.0001). As semi-quantitative values, extent and TPD of stress were higher in 3D 3.07%p (P=0.001), 2.36%p (P=0.0002), FBP 1.93%p (P=0.4275), 1.57%p (P=0.4595), TrueX 5.43%p (P=0.0003), 3.93%p (P<0.0001). Extent and TPD of rest were lower in FBP 0.86%p (P=0.1953), 0.57%p (P=0.2053) and higher in 3D 3.21%p (P=0.0006), 2.57%p (P=0.0001) and TrueX 5.36%p (P<0.0001), 4.36%p (P<0.0001). Based on the results of the blind test for image resolution and noise from the snapshot, 3D obtained the highest score, followed by 2D, TrueX and FBP. Conclusion: We found that quantitative and semi-quantitative myocardial perfusion values could be under- or over-estimated according to the reconstruction algorithm in $^{13}N-NH_3$ PET/CT. Therefore, proper dynamic and static reconstruction method should be established to provide accurate myocardial perfusion value.

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An Application of Generalizability Theory to Self-introduction Letter and Teacher's Recommendation Letter Used in Identification of Mathematical Gifted Students by Observations and Nominations (관찰.추천에 의한 수학영재 선발 시 사용되는 자기소개서와 교사추천서 평가에 대한 일반화가능도 이론의 활용)

  • Kim, Sung-Chan;Kim, Sung-Yeun;Han, Ki-Soon
    • Communications of Mathematical Education
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    • v.26 no.3
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    • pp.251-271
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    • 2012
  • The purpose of this study is: 1) to determine error sources and the effects of each error source, 2) to investigate optimal measuring conditions from holistic and analytic scoring methods, and 3) to compare the value of reliability between Cronbach's alpha and the generalizability coefficient in self-introduction letter and teacher's recommendation letter based on the generalizability theory in identification of mathematical gifted students by observations and nominations. Data of this study were collected from the science education institute for the gifted attached to the university located within in a capital city for the 2011 academic year. Scores form two raters using holistic and analytic scoring methods in both assessment types were used. The results of this study were as follows. First, as to both assessment types, error sources for people were relatively large regardless of scoring methods. However, error sources for raters in holistic scoring methods had a more significant impact than those of analytic scoring methods. Second, to set optimal measuring conditions in the self-introduction letter and teacher's recommendation letter, if we fixed the number of raters into 2 based on holistic scoring methods, at least 5 and 10 content domains were needed, respectively. In addition, the number of items in teacher's recommendation letter should be more than 3 when we fixed the number of content domains into 4, and the number of items in self-introduction letter should be more than 8 when we fixed the number of content domains into 6 using analytic scoring methods. Third, Cronbach's alpha having only a single source of errors was higher than the generalizability coefficient regardless of assessment types and scoring methods. Hence we recommend that generalizability coefficient based on various error sources such as raters, content domains, and items should be considered to keep a satisfactory level of reliability in both assessment types.

Teflon Felt Strip Mitral Valve Repair as an Alternative to Expensive Commercial Rings (테플론 펠트를 사용한 승모판막 성형술: 고가의 상업적 제품에 대한 대체물로 가능한가?)

  • Park, Kook-Yang;Jeon, Yang-Bin;Park, Chul-Hyun
    • Journal of Chest Surgery
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    • v.41 no.2
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    • pp.216-222
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    • 2008
  • Background: Prosthetic annuloplasty rings are used for the reconstruction of the mitral valve annulus. However, there is controversy over the best ring to use for reconstruction. In this study, we evaluated the long term result of using a Teflon felt strip as an alternative to commercial rings. Material and Method: From 1996 to 2007, we enrolled 47 patients with pure mitral regurgitation greater than grade III. All patients had an ejection fraction of 40% or more. Patients with congenital heart disease or other valvular heart disease were excluded from this study. They were divided into two groups; the commercial ring group (Group CR) and the Teflon felt ring group (Group TF). Result: There was no mortality. The postoperative echocardiography showed no significant change in the overall ejection fraction (from $58.0{\pm}11.2%\;to\;42.8{\pm}8.4%$). There were no significant differences between the two groups with regard to morbidity, the reoperation rate and recurrence of mitral regurgitation greater than grade II. Conclusion: The long term results from this study showed that posterior mitral annuloplasty using Teflon felt had similar results compared to annuloplasty using commercial rings.

Errors in Net Ecosystem Exchanges of CO2, Water Vapor, and Heat Caused by Storage Fluxes Calculated by Single-level Scalar Measurements Over a Rice Paddy (단일 높이에서 관측된 저장 플럭스를 사용할 때 발생하는 논의 이산화탄소, 수증기, 현열의 순생태계교환량 오차)

  • Moon, Minkyu;Kang, Minseok;Thakuri, Bindu Malla;Lee, Jung-Hoon
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.17 no.3
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    • pp.227-235
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    • 2015
  • Using eddy covariance method, net ecosystem exchange (NEE) of $CO_2$ ($F_{CO_2}$), $H_2O$ (LE), and sensible heat (H) can be approximated as the sum of eddy flux ($F_c$) and storage flux term ($F_s$). Depending on strength and distribution of sink/source of scalars and magnitude of vertical turbulence mixing, the rates of changes in scalars are different with height. In order to calculate $F_s$ accurately, the differences should be considered using scalar profile measurement. However, most of flux sites for agricultural lands in Asia do not operate profile system and estimate $F_s$ using single-level scalars from eddy covariance system under the assumption that the rates of changes in scalars are constant regardless of the height. In this study, we measured $F_c$ and $F_s$ of $CO_2$, $H_2O$, and air temperature ($T_a$) using eddy covariance and profile system (i.e., the multi-level measurement system in scalars from eddy covariance measurement height to the land surface) at the Chengmicheon farmland site in Korea (CFK) in order to quantify the differences between $F_s$ calculated by single-level measurements ($F_s_{-single}$ i.e., $F_s$ from scalars measured by profile system only at eddy covariance system measurement height) and $F_s$ calculated by profile measurements and verify the errors of NEE caused by $F_s_{-single}$. The rate of change in $CO_2$, $H_2O$, and Ta were varied with height depending on the magnitudes and distribution of sink and source and the stability in the atmospheric boundary layer. Thus, $F_s_{-single}$ underestimated or overestimated $F_s$ (especially 21% underestimation in $F_s$ of $CO_2$ around sunrise and sunset (0430-0800 h and 1630-2000 h)). For $F_{CO_2}$, the errors in $F_s_{-single}$ generated 3% and 2% underestimation of $F_{CO_2}$ during nighttime (2030-0400 h) and around sunrise and sunset, respectively. In the process of nighttime correction and partitioning of $F_{CO_2}$, these differences would cause an underestimation in carbon balance at the rice paddy. In contrast, there were little differences at the errors in LE and H caused by the error in $F_s_{-single}$, irrespective of time.

Calibration of Hargreaves Equation Coefficient for Estimating Reference Evapotranspiration in Korea (우리나라 기준증발산량 추정을 위한 Hargreaves 공식의 계수 보정)

  • Hwang, Seon-ah;Han, Kyung-hwa;Zhang, Yong-seon;Cho, Hee-rae;Ok, Jung-hun;Kim, Dong-Jin;Kim, Gi-sun;Jung, Kang-ho
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.21 no.4
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    • pp.238-249
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    • 2019
  • The evapotranspiration is estimated based on weather factors such as temperature, wind speed and humidity, and the Hargreaves equation is a simple equation for calculating evapotranspiration using temperature data. However, the Hargreaves equation tends to be underestimated in areas with wind speeds above 3 m s-1 and overestimated in areas with high relative humidity. The study was conducted to determine Hargreaves equation coefficient in 82 regions in Korea by comparing evapotranspiration determined by modified Hargreaves equation and the Penman-Monteith equation for the time period of 2008~2018. The modified Hargreaves coefficients for 50 inland areas were estimated to be 0.00173~0.00232(average 0.00196), which is similar to or lower than the default value 0.0023. On the other hand, there are 32 coastal areas, and the modified coefficients ranged from 0.00185 to 0.00303(average 0.00234). The east coastal area was estimated to be similar to or higher than the default value, while the west and south coastal areas showed large deviations by area. As results of estimating the evapotranspiration by the modified Hargreaves coefficient, root mean square error(RMSE) is reduced from 0.634~1.394(average 0.857) to 0.466~1.328(average 0.701), and Nash-Sutcliffe Coefficient(NSC) increased from -0.159~0.837(average 0.647) to -0.053~0.910(average 0.755) compared with original Hargreaves equation. Therefore, we confirmed that the Hargreaves equation can be overestimated or underestimated compared to the Penman-Monteith equation, and expected that it will be able to calculate the high accuracy evapotranspiration using the modified Hargreaves equation. This study will contribute to water resources planning, irrigation schedule, and environmental management.

Research Direction for Functional Foods Safety (건강기능식품 안전관리 연구방향)

  • Jung, Ki-Hwa
    • Journal of Food Hygiene and Safety
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    • v.25 no.4
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    • pp.410-417
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    • 2010
  • Various functional foods, marketing health and functional effects, have been distributed in the market. These products, being in forms of foods, tablets, and capsules, are likely to be mistaken as drugs. In addition, non-experts may sell these as foods, or use these for therapy. Efforts for creating health food regulations or building regulatory system for improving the current status of functional foods have been made, but these have not been communicated to consumers yet. As a result, problems of circulating functional foods for therapy or adding illegal medical to such products have persisted, which has become worse by internet media. The cause of this problem can be categorized into (1) product itself and (2) its use, but in either case, one possible cause is lack of communications with consumers. Potential problems that can be caused by functional foods include illegal substances, hazardous substances, allergic reactions, considerations when administered to patients, drug interactions, ingredients with purity or concentrations too low to be detected, products with metabolic activations, health risks from over- or under-dose of vitamin and minerals, and products with alkaloids. (Journal of Health Science, 56, Supplement (2010)). The reason why side effects related to functional foods have been increasing is that under-qualified functional food companies are exaggerating the functionality for marketing purposes. KFDA has been informing consumers, through its web pages, to address the above mentioned issues related to functional foods, but there still is room for improvement, to promote proper use of functional foods and avoid drug interactions. Specifically, to address these issues, institutionalizing to collect information on approved products and their side effects, settling reevaluation systems, and standardizing preclinical tests and clinical tests are becoming urgent. Also to provide crucial information, unified database systems, seamlessly aggregating heterogeneous data in different domains, with user interfaces enabling effective one-stop search, are crucial.

A Study on Nutrition Status by Diet of Female College Students of Masan City - 1. Focus on Diet Survey - (여대생의 체중감량이 영양상태에 미치는 영향 - 제1보. 다이어트 실태조사를 중심으로 -)

  • 김종현
    • The Korean Journal of Food And Nutrition
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    • v.11 no.2
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    • pp.185-191
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    • 1998
  • This study was performed to investigate the nutrition status by weight loss(diet) of 287 female college students, focus on questionnaire about diet survey. The subjects mainly had irregularly one or two meal per a day so food behavior was not good. Over half of subjects had a tendency to overestimate body shape of self. The desired weight(46.95$\pm$0.39kg) was significant lower than real weight(50.32$\pm$0.9)(p=0.0114). The time when diet is first tried was mainly after high school(94.51%). Mean weight loss was 1~4kg but most of subjects didn't maintain the lost weight. The diet approach method tried was sequently the fasting 1 meal or the more in a day(23.61%), exercise(21.92%), restricting calories(15.85%) etc. The source of diet was orderly newspaper or magazine(30.86%), friends or relatives or family(28.86%) etc. The group who recognized the self body shape was normal or a little fat had higher self notion of health than other groups.

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Eutrophication and Freshwater Red-tide Algae on Early Impoundment Stage of Jeolgol Reservoir in the Paikryeong Island, West Sea of South Korea (백령도 절골저수지의 부영양화와 담수적조)

  • Lee, Heung-Soo;Hur, Jin;Park, Jae-Chung;Shin, Jae-Ki
    • Korean Journal of Ecology and Environment
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    • v.39 no.2 s.116
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    • pp.271-283
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    • 2006
  • A systematic water quality survey was conducted in August, 2005 for a drinking water supply reservoir (the Jeolgol reseuoir located in an island), which is at an early stage of impoundment, to investigate the causes of water color deterioration of the reservoir and the clogging of filter beds of a water treatment plant. The reservoir shape was simple and its average depth was 5.5 m, increasing from upreservoir toward the downreservoir end near the dam. Dissolved oxygen (DO) and chloropllyll-a (chi-a) showed a large variation while water temperature had a smaller range. Transparency ranged from 0.6 to 0.9 m (average 0.7 m). The average value of turbidity was 9.3 NTU, ranging from 8.0 ${\sim}$ 12.1 NTU. The transparency and the turbidity appear to be affected by a combination of biological and non-biological factors. The poor transparency was explained by an increase of inorganic colloids and algal bloom in the reservoir. The blockage of the filter bed was attributed to the oversupply of phytoplanktons from the reservoir. The range and the average concentration of chi-a within the reservoir were 31.6 ${\sim}$ 258.9 ${\mu}g\;L^{-1}$, 123.6 ${\mu}g\;L^{-1}$ for the upper layer, and 17.0 ${\sim}$ 37.4 ${\mu}g\;L^{-1}$, 26.5 ${\mu}g\;L^{-1}$ for the bottom layer, respectively. A predominant species contributing the algal bloom was Dinophyceae, Peridinium bipes f. occultatum. The distribution of Peridinium spp. was correlated with chi-a concentrations. The standing crop of phytoplankton was highest in the upreservoir with $8.5\;{\times}\;103\;cells\;mL^{-1}$ and it decreased toward the downresevoir. Synedra of Bacillariophyceae and Microcystis aeruginosa of Cyanophyceae appeared to contribute to the algal bloom, although they are not dominated. It is mostly likely that sloped farmlands located in the watershed of the reservoir caused water quality problems because they may contain a significant amount of the nutrients originated from fertilizers. In addition, the aerators installed in the reservoir and a shortage of the inflowing water may be related to the poor water quality. A long-term monitoring and an integrated management plan for the water quality of the watersheds and the reservoir may be required to improve the water quality of the reservoir.