• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.27 no.1
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• pp.83-102
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• 2021

The government recently announced various policies for developing big-data and artificial intelligence fields to provide a great opportunity to the public with respect to disclosure of high-quality data within public institutions. KSURE(Korea Trade Insurance Corporation) is a major public institution for financial policy in Korea, and thus the company is strongly committed to backing export companies with various systems. Nevertheless, there are still fewer cases of realized business model based on big-data analyses. In this situation, this paper aims to develop a new business model which can be applied to an ex-ante prediction for the likelihood of the insurance accident of credit guarantee. We utilize internal data from KSURE which supports export companies in Korea and apply machine learning models. Then, we conduct performance comparison among the predictive models including Logistic Regression, Random Forest, XGBoost, LightGBM, and DNN(Deep Neural Network). For decades, many researchers have tried to find better models which can help to predict bankruptcy since the ex-ante prediction is crucial for corporate managers, investors, creditors, and other stakeholders. The development of the prediction for financial distress or bankruptcy was originated from Smith(1930), Fitzpatrick(1932), or Merwin(1942). One of the most famous models is the Altman's Z-score model(Altman, 1968) which was based on the multiple discriminant analysis. This model is widely used in both research and practice by this time. The author suggests the score model that utilizes five key financial ratios to predict the probability of bankruptcy in the next two years. Ohlson(1980) introduces logit model to complement some limitations of previous models. Furthermore, Elmer and Borowski(1988) develop and examine a rule-based, automated system which conducts the financial analysis of savings and loans. Since the 1980s, researchers in Korea have started to examine analyses on the prediction of financial distress or bankruptcy. Kim(1987) analyzes financial ratios and develops the prediction model. Also, Han et al.(1995, 1996, 1997, 2003, 2005, 2006) construct the prediction model using various techniques including artificial neural network. Yang(1996) introduces multiple discriminant analysis and logit model. Besides, Kim and Kim(2001) utilize artificial neural network techniques for ex-ante prediction of insolvent enterprises. After that, many scholars have been trying to predict financial distress or bankruptcy more precisely based on diverse models such as Random Forest or SVM. One major distinction of our research from the previous research is that we focus on examining the predicted probability of default for each sample case, not only on investigating the classification accuracy of each model for the entire sample. Most predictive models in this paper show that the level of the accuracy of classification is about 70% based on the entire sample. To be specific, LightGBM model shows the highest accuracy of 71.1% and Logit model indicates the lowest accuracy of 69%. However, we confirm that there are open to multiple interpretations. In the context of the business, we have to put more emphasis on efforts to minimize type 2 error which causes more harmful operating losses for the guaranty company. Thus, we also compare the classification accuracy by splitting predicted probability of the default into ten equal intervals. When we examine the classification accuracy for each interval, Logit model has the highest accuracy of 100% for 0~10% of the predicted probability of the default, however, Logit model has a relatively lower accuracy of 61.5% for 90~100% of the predicted probability of the default. On the other hand, Random Forest, XGBoost, LightGBM, and DNN indicate more desirable results since they indicate a higher level of accuracy for both 0~10% and 90~100% of the predicted probability of the default but have a lower level of accuracy around 50% of the predicted probability of the default. When it comes to the distribution of samples for each predicted probability of the default, both LightGBM and XGBoost models have a relatively large number of samples for both 0~10% and 90~100% of the predicted probability of the default. Although Random Forest model has an advantage with regard to the perspective of classification accuracy with small number of cases, LightGBM or XGBoost could become a more desirable model since they classify large number of cases into the two extreme intervals of the predicted probability of the default, even allowing for their relatively low classification accuracy. Considering the importance of type 2 error and total prediction accuracy, XGBoost and DNN show superior performance. Next, Random Forest and LightGBM show good results, but logistic regression shows the worst performance. However, each predictive model has a comparative advantage in terms of various evaluation standards. For instance, Random Forest model shows almost 100% accuracy for samples which are expected to have a high level of the probability of default. Collectively, we can construct more comprehensive ensemble models which contain multiple classification machine learning models and conduct majority voting for maximizing its overall performance.

• KOREAN JOURNAL OF CROP SCIENCE
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• v.34 no.1
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• pp.60-73
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• 1989

Two field experiments were carried out to assess the applicability of a central composite design (CCD) in determining optimum culture condition of an early rice cultivar, Unbongbyeo in southern Korea. A central composite design with two replicates was applied to five levels of five factors such as the number of hills per 3.3m2, the number of seedlings per hill, the levels of nitrogen, the transplanting date and the seedling age (Experiment 1). The levels of planting density were ranged from 30 hills to 150 hills per 3.3m2 ; the number of seedlings per hill from 1 seedling to 9 seedlings per hill; the levels of nitrogen application from 1 kg/l0a to 21 kg/l0a; the transplanting date from June 15 to July 5; the seedling age from 25 days to 45 days. A fractional factorial design was applied to three levels of five factors tested in CCD (Experiment 2). Yield per hill and per unit area were examined and the results obtained from both experiments were compared. The benefits from the central composite design were discussed. Maximum yield of brown rice per unit area was obtained at the combination of the central levels of one of five factors when the other four factors were fixed at central point. Furthermore, brown rice yield per unit area affected by interaction of two factors was maximized at the central point when the remain three factors being fixed at the central level. The responses of five factors to brown rice yield per hill and unit area were found to be a saddle point in both designs. Actual values of the stationary points were 107 hills per 3.3 m2, 4 seedlings per hill, 10 kg nitrogen per l0a, transplanting date of rice on June 26 and 33 days of seedling age in the central composite design. Brown rice yield per unit area at the stationary points were estimated 439 kg/l0a in the central composite design and 442 kg/l0a in the fractional factorial design. Considering the number of experimental treatment combinations, the central composite design was rather convenient in reducing the number of treatment combinations for similar information. It was more convenient for an experimenter to present the results from the central composite design than those from the fractional factorial design. Considering the optimum yields of brown rice per unit area at the stationary points being verified as saddle points in both designs. inter-heterogeneity of each of the factors should be avoided in setting up factors in pursuit of inducing unidirectional response of the factors to yield. Even though both the lower and higher levels in the central composite design being beyond the region of an experimenter's interest. they were considered highly valued in interpretation of the results. Conclusively. the central composite design was found to be more beneficial to optimize culture condition of paddy rice even with several levels of various factors were involved.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.25 no.4
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• pp.1-33
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• 2019

The small and medium sized enterprises (hereinafter SMEs) are already at a competitive disadvantaged when compared to large companies with more abundant resources. Manufacturing SMEs not only need a lot of information needed for new product development for sustainable growth and survival, but also seek networking to overcome the limitations of resources, but they are faced with limitations due to their size limitations. In a new era in which connectivity increases the complexity and uncertainty of the business environment, SMEs are increasingly urged to find information and solve networking problems. In order to solve these problems, the government funded research institutes plays an important role and duty to solve the information asymmetry problem of SMEs. The purpose of this study is to identify the differentiating characteristics of SMEs that utilize the public information support infrastructure provided by SMEs to enhance the innovation capacity of SMEs, and how they contribute to corporate performance. We argue that we need an infrastructure for providing information support to SMEs as part of this effort to strengthen of the role of government funded institutions; in this study, we specifically identify the target of such a policy and furthermore empirically demonstrate the effects of such policy-based efforts. Our goal is to help establish the strategies for building the information supporting infrastructure. To achieve this purpose, we first classified the characteristics of SMEs that have been found to utilize the information supporting infrastructure provided by government funded institutions. This allows us to verify whether selection bias appears in the analyzed group, which helps us clarify the interpretative limits of our study results. Next, we performed mediator and moderator effect analysis for multiple variables to analyze the process through which the use of information supporting infrastructure led to an improvement in external networking capabilities and resulted in enhancing product competitiveness. This analysis helps identify the key factors we should focus on when offering indirect support to SMEs through the information supporting infrastructure, which in turn helps us more efficiently manage research related to SME supporting policies implemented by government funded institutions. The results of this study showed the following. First, SMEs that used the information supporting infrastructure were found to have a significant difference in size in comparison to domestic R&D SMEs, but on the other hand, there was no significant difference in the cluster analysis that considered various variables. Based on these findings, we confirmed that SMEs that use the information supporting infrastructure are superior in size, and had a relatively higher distribution of companies that transact to a greater degree with large companies, when compared to the SMEs composing the general group of SMEs. Also, we found that companies that already receive support from the information infrastructure have a high concentration of companies that need collaboration with government funded institution. Secondly, among the SMEs that use the information supporting infrastructure, we found that increasing external networking capabilities contributed to enhancing product competitiveness, and while this was no the effect of direct assistance, we also found that indirect contributions were made by increasing the open marketing capabilities: in other words, this was the result of an indirect-only mediator effect. Also, the number of times the company received additional support in this process through mentoring related to information utilization was found to have a mediated moderator effect on improving external networking capabilities and in turn strengthening product competitiveness. The results of this study provide several insights that will help establish policies. KISTI's information support infrastructure may lead to the conclusion that marketing is already well underway, but it intentionally supports groups that enable to achieve good performance. As a result, the government should provide clear priorities whether to support the companies in the underdevelopment or to aid better performance. Through our research, we have identified how public information infrastructure contributes to product competitiveness. Here, we can draw some policy implications. First, the public information support infrastructure should have the capability to enhance the ability to interact with or to find the expert that provides required information. Second, if the utilization of public information support (online) infrastructure is effective, it is not necessary to continuously provide informational mentoring, which is a parallel offline support. Rather, offline support such as mentoring should be used as an appropriate device for abnormal symptom monitoring. Third, it is required that SMEs should improve their ability to utilize, because the effect of enhancing networking capacity through public information support infrastructure and enhancing product competitiveness through such infrastructure appears in most types of companies rather than in specific SMEs.

• Journal of Nutrition and Health
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• v.35 no.3
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• pp.352-367
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• 2002

In order to assess the quality of dietary intake among the elderly, a survey was conducted during Jucy-August, 1999, of 230 subjects who were 65 years or older and who were living in Jeonju City. Results of the analysis of the data are as follows : Regarding Dietery Variety Score (DVS), the average number of food items consumed per person was significantly higher for males (19.6) than for females (17.7). The intake of plant food was higher than animal food for both sexes the proportion of plant versus animal foods consumed by fresh weight was 85 : 15 for males and 89 : 11 for females. Diet Diversity Score (DDS) is determined by how many from five food groups (cereal, meat, dairy, vegetable and fruit) consumed per day while Korean Diet Diversity Score (KDDS) is determined by how many from five different food groups (cereal, meat, vegetable, dairy and oil) consumed per day. The subjects'average DDS and KDDS were 4.0 and 3.5 for males, and 3.7 and 3.2 for females, respectively. Overall, the distribution of DDS was lower than that of KDDS. The average Meal Balance Score (MBS : Apply the KDDS at breakfast, lunch and dinner) was 9.1 for malts and 8.1 for females. Average daily caloric intake for males and females was 1,740 kcal and 1,433 kcal, which was 84.0% and 80.9% of the RDA, respectively. Average daily protein intake for males and females, at 67 g and 49 g (100.7% and 88.3% of the RDA), respectively, was satisfactory. However, intakes of calcium and vitamin A were below 75% of the RDA (calcium : 62.7% for males and 55.3% for females ; vitamin A : 60.7% for males and 53.9% far females). The average proportional contribution of protein/fat/carbohydrate (PFC) to total calorie intake was 15.8 : 15.7 : 68.5 for males and 13.8 : 13.2 : 73.0 for females. Distribution of energy for each meal (breakfast : lunch : afternoon snack : dinner : night snack) was 29.2 : 32.4 : 5.0 : 31.2 : 2.2 among males and 30.5 : 33.5 : 4.5 : 28.6 : 2.91 among females. The Index of Nutritional Quality (INQ) was above 1 for protein, phosphorus, iron, vitamin B$_1$, niacin, and vitamin C. However, the INQ of calcium and vitamin A were below 1 among both males and females, and the INQ of vitamin B$_2$was below l among females. The Nutrient Adequacy Ratio (NAR = nutrient intake %RDA) was below 1 for all nutrients, and the NAR of vitamin A were the lowest among 9 nutrients (protein, calcium, phosphorus, iron, vitamin A, vitamin B$_1$, vitamin B$_2$, niacin, vitamin C) for both males and females, with values of 0.52 and 0.42, respectively. The second and third lowest NAR values were for calcium(males: 0.68: females: 0.54) and vitamin B$_2$(males: 0.77: females: 0.67). Values of Mean Adequacy Ratio (MAR = sum of 9 NARs/9) for males (0.82) were higher than for females (0.73). These results indicate that the intakes of calcium and vitamin A were severely inadequate. The results of a stepwise multiple regression analysis, where the DVS or MAR were the dependent variables and the DDS, KDDS, and MBS were independent variables, indicated that DDS is a more useful variable than KDDS in determining the quality of meals of the elderly.

• Journal of Sericultural and Entomological Science
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• v.16 no.2
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• pp.1-34
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• 1974

These experiments pertain to various factors influencing the quantitative characters of cocoon crops in summer and early autumn seasons. Initially, in order to establish the possible ways of the silkworm rearing more than three times a year in Korea, the author attempted to get further information about the various factors affecting the cocoon crop in every silkworm rearing season. The trials were conducted eleven times a year at four places for three years. The field trial was conducted with 19 typical sericultural farmers who had been surveyed. At the same time the author statistically analyzed the various factors in close relation to tile cocoon crop in autumn season. The effect of guidance on 40 sericultural farmers was analyzed, comparing higher level farmers with lower level farmers ; and the author surveyed 758 non-guided farmers near the guided farmers during both spring and autumn seasons. In addition, another trial on the seasonal change of leaf quality was attempted with artificial diets prepared with leaves grown in each season. It was found that related factors to cocoon crops in summer and early autumn seasons appeared to be leaf quality, and temperature for young and grown larvae. A 2$^4$ factorial experiment was designed in summer season, and another design with one more level of varied temperature or hard leaf added to a 24 factorial experiment was conducted in early autumn. The experimental results can be summarized： 1. Study on the cocoon crops in the different rearing seasons 1) It was shown that earlier brushing of silkworm generally produced the most abundant cocoon crop in spring season, and earlier or later than the conventional brushing season, especially earlier brushing was unfavorable for the abundant cocoon crop in autumn season. 2) The cocoon crop was affected by the rearing season, and decreases in order of sire with spring, autumn, late autumn, summer and early autumn seasons. 3) It was Proved that ordinary rearing and branch rearing were possibles 4 times a year ; in the 1st, 3rd, 8th, and 10th brushing season. But the 11th brushing season was more favorable for the most abundant cocoon crop of branch rearing, instead of the 10th brushing season with ordinary rearing. 2. Study on the main factors affecting the cocoon crop in autumn season 1) Accumulated pathogens were a lethal factor leading to a bad cocoon crop through neglect of disinfection of rearing room and instruments. 2) Additional factors leading to a poor cocoon crop were unfavorable for rearing temperature and humidity, dense population, poor choice of moderately ripened leaf, and poor feeding techniques. However, it seemed that there was no relationship between the cocoon crop and management of farm. 3) The percentage of cocoon shell seemed to be mostly affected by leaf quality, and secondarily affected by the accumulation of pathogens. 3. Study on the effect of guidance on rearing techniques 1) The guided farms produced an average yearly yield of 29.0kg of cocoons, which varied from 32.3kg to 25.817g of cocoon yield per box in spring versus autumn, respectively. Those figures indicated an annual average increase of 26% of cocoon yield over yields of non-guided farmers. An increase of 20% of cocoon yield in spring and 35% of cocoon yield in autumn were responsible. 2) On guided farms 77.1 and 83.7% of total cocoon yields in the spring and autumn seasons, respectively, exceeded 3rd grade. This amounted to increases of 14.1 and 11.3% in cocoon yield and quality over those of non-guided farms. 3) The average annual cocoon yield on guided farms was 28.9kg per box, based on a range of 31.2kg to 26.9kg per box in spring and autumn seasons, respectively. This represented an 8% increase in cocoon yield on farms one year after guidance, as opposed to non-guided farms. This yield increase was due to 3 and 16% cocoon yield increases in spring and autumn crops. 4) Guidance had no effect on higher level farms, but was responsible for 19% of the increases in production on lower level farms. 4. Study on the seasonal change of leaf quality 1) In tests with grown larvae, leaves of tile spring crop incorporated in artificial diets produced the best cocoon crop; followed by leaves of the late autumn, summer, autumn, and early autumn crops. 2) The cocoon crop for young larvae as well as for grown larvae varied with the season of leaf used. 5. Study on factors affecting the cocoon crops in summer and early autumn A. Early autumn season 1) Survival rate and cocoon yield were significantly decreased at high rearing temperatures for young larvae 2) Survival rate, cocoon yield, and cocoon quality were adversely affected by high rearing temperatures for grown larvae. Therefore increases of cocoon quantity and improvement of cocoon quality are dependent on maintaining optimum temperatures. 3) Decreases in individual cocoon weight and longer larval periods resulted with feeding of soft leaf and hard leaf to young larvae, but the survival rate, cocoon yield and weight of cocoon shell were not influenced. 4) Cocoon yield and cocoon quality were influenced by feeding of hard leaf to grown larvae, but survival rate was not influenced by the feeding of soft leaf and hard leaf. 5) When grown larvae were inevitably raised at varied temperatures, application of varied temperature in the raising of both young and grown larvae was desirable. Further research concerning this matter must be considered. B. Summer season 1) Cocoon yield and single cocoon weight were decreased at high temperatures for young larvae and survival rate was also affected. 2) Cocoon yield, survival rate. and cocoon quality were considerably decreased at high rearing temperatures for grown larval stages.

• Journal of Nutrition and Health
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• v.42 no.1
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• pp.23-37
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• 2009

The purpose of this study was to investigate the health status of preschool children using the questionnaires about dietary behaviors and anthropometric indices. And also nutritional status was investigated using questionnaires for 24-hr recall method. The study was conducted in 145 children aged 3 to 6 years and questionnaires for dietary behaviors and dietary intakes were performed by mothers of children in Ulsan. Just nine percent of children were graded as good in terms of having healthy eating habits, this means that the nutrition education for the dietary behaviors should be more focused on preschool children. With regard to the frequency of food intake, children consumed green & yellow vegetables less frequently, meanwhile consumed high protein source food (meat, egg and bean) and milk and its product more frequently. Children almost never consumed fried foods as often as 1-2 times a weak. In assessment of the health status, children have the highest prevalence of colds and allergy, but lower prevalence of clinical symptoms due to the nutritional deficiency. The mean height was $103.6\;{\pm}\;6.4\;cm$ and significantly different among age (p < 0.05), but was not significantly different between sex. The mean weight was $17.8\;{\pm}\;3.0\;kg$ and significantly different in 5, 6years old among age. By the WLI criteria, 11.1% of children were underweight and 17.4% of children were overweight or obese. By the Rohrer index criteria, any children were not underweight and 86.8% of children were overweight or obese. By the Kaup index criteria, 2.8% of children were underweight and 29.2% of children were overweight or obese. And Obesity Index criteria, 2.1% of children were underweight and 20.8% of children were overweight or obese. The results of obesity rate by all criteria except Rohrer index indicated similar level, were significantly high in age 3 with all criteria, and decreased with age increased. The energy intake of children was lower than EER (Estimated Energy Requirements) of Dietary Reference Intakes for Koreans (KDRIs) by as much as 85.7%. Acceptable Macronutrient Distribution Ranges (AMDR) was 62.6:21.5:15.7 as carbohydrate:protein:lipid, so children consumed protein more, but consumed lipid less compared with those of KDRIs. Vitamin A intake was 133% of recommended intakes (RI) and calcium intake which was identified as the nutrient most likely to be lacking in diets was 98.9% of RI. The intakes of all minerals and vitamins except folate were higher than KDRIs. 33.3% of children were distributed in insufficiency of energy intake, 42.7% of children were distributed in insufficiency of lipid intake. These results indicate that the need of developing of nutrition education program and further concern of a public health center, university and children care center about dietary life for preschool children.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Food Science and Nutrition
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• v.38 no.6
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• pp.694-708
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• 2009

The principal objective of this study was to determine the effects of smoking & drinking on the diet, nutrient intake, and overall health. A sample of 262 youths, aged 16 to 18 year-old, was randomly selected from Seoul and its vicinity. The subjects participated by answering survey questions including general questions, questions regarding health, smoking & drinking habits, dietary habits, nutrient intake, physical characteristics, and smoking cessation plans. The average height, weight, and BMI of the subjects were $173.5{\pm}6.8\;cm$, $64.8{\pm}11.8\;kg$, and $21.4{\pm}3.7\;kg/m^2$, respectively. Among the subjects, 88% appeared to be interested in health and 43.5% of youth asserted that the best way to keep healthy was to engage in regular exercise. Among 63 smokers, 52 students (82.5%) used alcoholic beverages while 11 students (17.5%) did not use alcoholic beverages, meaning that smoking was a causative factor in drinking. 55.6% of youth reported beginning to smoke in middle school, and 38.1% of them asserted that curiosity was the motive for smoking. The youth reported that the craving for smoking was highest when hungry, and the best place to smoke was the restroom. 20 students (69.0%) answered that the only way to quit smoking was just to stop. 12 students (44.4%) reported that the main reason for failures in smoking cessation attempts was a lack of intention or willpower. 87.1% of all subjects answered that they were inclined to quit smoking, and 56.7% of them would be interested in attending a smoking cessation program if they had the opportunity. Among the smoking and drinking group, 50% of drinkers began to drink in high school, and the reason for drinking given was peer pressure-40% of drinkers answered that they wished to quit drinking. 34.4% of students appeared to have breakfast everyday, but 16.4% of students answered that they had quit eating breakfast. 52.5% of all students reported that the principal reason for overeating was the presence of one's favorite food, and the smoking and drinking group reported overeating more frequently than other groups (p<0.05). 72.6% of all subjects reported eating interim meals $1{\sim}2$ times daily, 36.4% of smokers ate carbonated beverages, 38.5% ate ice cream as a interim meal, and 38.5% of the drinking and smoking groups ate fruits, 26.9% of them ate fried foods, and some of them ate fast foods as a interim meal. Among smokers, the ratio of eating fat-rich foods, and meats such as kalbi and samgyupsal more than two times per week was higher, and 54.3% of smokers ate ice cream, cookies, and carbonated beverages more than two times per week (p<0.05). The total nutrient intake of the $15{\sim}19$-year youth group was much higher than the standard value. The energy intake of the smoking group and the drinking and smoking group was significantly higher than that of the normal group (p<0.05). Intakes of phosphorus (p<0.05), cholesterol (p<0.05), and sodium (p<0.05) were the highest among all groups. Accordingly, it is recommended that practical education programs be implemented to teach young students to resist peer pressures to smoke and drink. Additionally, education that acknowledges the importance of nutrition is necessary to avoid preferential eating and overeating due to smoking and drinking.such education can also teach students to eat a balanced diet and improve their physical development.