• Economic Analysis
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• v.26 no.4
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• pp.1-38
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• 2020

In this research, we explore the effects of changes in industrial structure due to industrial restructuring on employment and growth in the Korean economy. To that end, we first investigate the impact of industrial restructuring on employment through Lilien's sectoral shift hypothesis, considering the dependence of industrial restructuring on business cycles. As a result of the analysis, we find that changes in the industrial structure have exerted a short-term effect of increasing unemployment, and that the effects of industrial restructuring are even greater during the economic downturn period. In light of these points, Lilien's sectoral shift hypothesis seems to be valid in Korea. Next, we examine the effect of industrial restructuring on economic growth in Korea by analyzing which one, between the Kuznetz hypothesis and the Baumol effect, is dominant. Empirical results reveal that the mid- to long-term effect of industrial restructuring on GDP growth is significant, which is in accordance with the Kuznets hypothesis, where resource allocation along with industrial restructuring to sectors with high productivity spurs economic growth.

• Korean Journal of Applied Biomechanics
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• v.18 no.4
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• pp.209-216
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• 2008

The purposes of this study were to describe the techniques used by the university male's triple jumpers and to examine the characteristics of the kinematic and the kinetic factors of the three phases of a triple jump. The subjects were the five finalists with 16.70m over in the triple jump at the 2003 World Student Games. After analyzing the kinematic and the kinetic data during the whole triple jump, the following findings are obtained. The heights of the center of gravity of takeoff and touchdown for the three phases of the triple jump were medium-law-high pattern and the same height pattern as hop and step, respectively. Mean values for the average forces exerted on the subjects ranged from 0.6 to 0.7 times body weight to the horizontal direction and about 2.8 to 3.0 times body weight to the vertical direction.

• The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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• v.19 no.5
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• pp.64-73
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• 2019

This study analyzed the efficiency by using the DEA model to evaluate the competitiveness of specialty construction firms. The target of the analysis is 300 firms with continuous data from 2010 to 2017 as listed and externally listed firms. Significant analysis results are as follows. First, the efficiency of specialty construction firms is lower than that of general construction industry. Second, efficiency by type was highest in facilities construction and dismantling work. This shows that the relevant industries such as reinforced concrete works and scaffolding and demolition work are relatively efficient in specialty construction industry. Third, the efficiency of specialty construction industry is affected by economic fluctuations. When the construction industry is in the expansion phase, the efficiency value is high and the efficiency value is low in the down phase. Finally, in the scale profitability analysis, specialty construction industry was most analyzed by DRS. This means that it is effective to scale down for the efficiency of the firm.

• Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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• v.15 no.4
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• pp.107-118
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• 2014

Electrical Construction industry uses Construction industry's statistical data for business outlook. Because there are not electrical construction business view's statistical data. It has own unique characteristic which is different from construction industry. So it must have a electrical construction Business Index. This study was focused on developing the business index of electrical construction business. Electrical construction business index consists of electrical construction composite Index(ECI) and the electrical construction business survey index(EBSI). This study experimentally analyzes the business views of electrical construction industry in 2/4 quarter of 2014. The leading Index of ECI indicates -0.4% compared with 1/4 quarter of 2014, coincidence index also shows that electrical construction industry's business cycle is in an economic downturn. EBSI is 83.5 in 2/4 quarter of 2014, down from 95.2 in 1/4 quarter of 2014. It means that electrical construction company has a pessimistic prediction. As a result we know that the Business Index of Electrical Construction Business shows similar results. It is expected to make contribution for electrical contractors to establish management strategies and prepare responses to economic changes by providing information about economic trends of electrical construction business and forecasting future economy.

• 주택과사람들
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• s.168
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• pp.46-58
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• 2004

>>> 시장여건 분석 $\blacktriangleright$ 주택수급 상황 $\cdot$ 신규입주물량은 46만호로 올해보다 크게 감소하나 아파트입주물량은 32만호로 증가. 특히, 주거용 오피스텔 입주가 본격화되면서 전체적으로 공급과잉구조로 전환 $\cdot$ 가수요는 물론 실수요도 위축되면서 미분양 증가, 입주후 공가가 주요이슈로 대두 $\blacktriangleright$주택정책 여건 $\cdot$양도세,재산세 중과, 주택거래신고제, 종합부동산세 등 10.29종합대책의 후속조치가 본격화되고, 토지거래허가대상 확대 및 개발이익환수 등 2차 대책 시행가능성 상존 $\cdot$ 분양원가 공개, 후분양제 도입, 신행정수도 이전계획의 향방에 따른 불안요인도 내재 $\blacktriangleright$거시경제 전망 $\cdot$ 경기회복으로 금리가 상승세로 돌아설 경우 투자수요 위축 불가피 $\cdot$ 경제성장률이 $5\%$대로 개선되고 시중유동성도 풍부하나, 가계부실과 실업 증가로 수요증가효과는 제한적 >>> 향후 시장전망 $\cdot$ 저금리기조와 각종 개발호재에 따른 시장불안요인은 상존하나 정부의 강력한 투기억제 의지를 감안할 때 단기 조정 후 추가 하락하는 전형적인 경기후퇴국면에 진입할 전망 $\cdot$매매가격은 서울아파트가격이 크게 하락하면서 전국평균-$2\%$ 내외의 하락률을 보이고, 전세가격도 국지적 불안 가능성은 있으나 $-1\%$ 내외의 하향안정세가 이얼질 전망. 분양시장은 청약률 둔화와 미분양 증가의 침제양상이 이어지면서 주택건설실적도 각종 사업여건 악화로 50만호 안팎에 머물 것으로 예상. 지가상상률은 투기대책과 주택시장 위축으로 올해보다는 소폭 낮아지나 각종 개발 호재에 힘입어 개발예정지역을 중심으로 $3\%$ 내외의 높은 상승세가 지속될 전망

• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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• v.28 no.2
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• pp.97-129
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• 2006

This study investigates whether dynamic loan loss provisioning is necessary in Korean banking environments. Under the dynamic provisioning rule banks are required to accumulate additional reserves to general and specific provisionings in preparation for expected loan losses until maturity. This provisioning is most effective in the case that banks tend to recognize less loan losses in the business upturns and/or in the periods of increasing profits. The empirical study, however, shows that banks support procyclicality of loan loss privisioning and earning smoothing behavior over profit fluctuations. These findings suggest that Korea would not seriously need the introduction of dynamic loan loss provisioning. But this policy implication does not seem robust in view that the recent experience shows the countercyclicality of loan loss provisioning practices and negative correlation between earnings and provisioning after financial restructuring was completed. This result is partly attributable to vigorous shareholder activism because of high foreign ownership of most commercial banks. Once it is true that bank management is more interested in short-term performances, current loan loss provisioning would have attributes of impairing capital adequacy, hence strengthening loan loss provisiong requirements.

• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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• v.29 no.1
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• pp.67-76
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• 2013

It has been more than four years since the outbreak of global financial crisis. However, the world economy continues to be challenged with new crisis such as the European debt crisis and the fiscal cliff issue of the U.S. The global economic environment remains fragile and prone to further disappointment, although the balance of risks is now less skewed to the downside than it has been in recent years. It's no wonder that maritime business will be bearish since the global business affects the maritime business directly as well as indirectly. This paper, hence, aims to predict the Baltic Dry Index representing the shipping business using the ARIMA-type models and Hodrick-Prescott filtering technique. The monthly data cover the period January 2000 through January 2013. The out-of-sample forecasting performance is measured by three summary statistics: root mean squared percent error, mean absolute percent error and mean percent error. These forecasting performances are also compared with those of the random walk model. This study shows that the ARIMA models including Intervention-ARIMA have lower rmse than random walk model. This means that it's appropriate to forecast BDI using the ARIMA models. This paper predicts that the shipping market will be more bearish in 2013 than the year 2012. These pessimistic ex-ante forecasts are supported by the Hodrick-Prescott filtering technique.

• International Area Studies Review
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• v.16 no.1
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• pp.147-171
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• 2012

Even though many people loosely term a period of high inflation combined with stagnation "stagflation", it has been very difficult for us to find a more detailed and theoretical definition for such a period. In addition, most economic policy makers have faced some uncertainty and difficulty in identifying stagflation periods through analyzing a lot of economic data. This paper deeply researches the literature on specific definitions of stagflation and provides an empirical method by which we can systematically identify real-time stagflation pressure. Under this method, real-time stagflation pressure can be evaluated as a complex index by using both extensive monthly economic data indicating economic conditions or inflation pressure and a logit regression model. As a result of applying this method to the first half of 2008 in Korea when there was much debate as to whether the Korean economy was experiencing a corresponding stagflation or not, this period is not now evaluated as having been a stagflation period. This paper provides some implications. Namely, we need to put more emphasis on stabilizing inflation expectations.

• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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• v.34 no.4
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• pp.117-156
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• 2012

This paper decomposes and estimates trend/cyclical components of some key macro variables-GDP, inflation, and interest rate, using a simple DSGE model along with flexible trend specification. The extracted cyclical components of output and interest rate are similar to HP-filtered counterparts, despite some differences in persistence and volatility, while inflation resembles that from BK filtering. This implies that the usual practice of applying a single filtering method to the data of interest may be problematic. When the baseline model is extended to incorporate consumption habit and price indexation, habit turns out to be important in explaining the persistence of business cycles. Comparison of several alternative models shows that the usual practice of estimation of DSGE model using filtered data leads to biased results. Finally, various sensitivity analyses illustrate that (1) allowing for correlation between structural cyclical shocks and trend shocks and (2) including irregular components (in inflation rate) may deliver interesting/important implication for gap estimates.

• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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• v.27 no.2
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• pp.297-311
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• 2011

This paper deals with a strategic investment decision model for improving investment profit in shipping industry. Despite the quantitative expansion of Korean shipping business, many shipping firms have suffered financial difficulties due to financial and operating risks that result from the characteristics of capital-intensive business as well as of volatility of shipping markets. As a result, managers in charge of making an investment decision, particularly in tramper business sector, are required to take both financial and operating risk factors into consideration. Put it differently, managers are strongly recommended to avoid these risks by ship asset play; buy-low and sell-high, which results in considerable capital gain and cost reduction. In addition, managers in shipping industry are also recommended to consider the ship chartering investment alternative when the freight markets show extreme volatility as the case of 2008 triggered by sub-prime mortgage financial crisis in USA. For example, the BDI suffered plunging down from 1000 in 2008 to 100 in 2010. Consequently, the 4th largest shipping company in Korea, DAEHAN Shipping Co., has collapsed primarily due to excessive tonnage expansion during the peak time of bulk market. In sum, the strategic investment decision model, suggested in this paper, is designed to include such factors as capital gain by asset play, timely chartering for alternative shipping service, and optimization of operating profit by tonnage adjustment in accordance with change in the shipping markets concerned.