• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.20 no.4
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• pp.1-23
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• 2014

Market forecasting aims to estimate the sales volume of a product or service that is sold to consumers for a specific selling period. From the perspective of the enterprise, accurate market forecasting assists in determining the timing of new product introduction, product design, and establishing production plans and marketing strategies that enable a more efficient decision-making process. Moreover, accurate market forecasting enables governments to efficiently establish a national budget organization. This study aims to generate a market growth curve for ICT (information and communication technology) goods using past time series data; categorize products showing similar growth patterns; understand markets in the industry; and forecast the future outlook of such products. This study suggests the useful and meaningful process (or methodology) to identify the market growth pattern with quantitative growth model and data mining algorithm. The study employs the following methodology. At the first stage, past time series data are collected based on the target products or services of categorized industry. The data, such as the volume of sales and domestic consumption for a specific product or service, are collected from the relevant government ministry, the National Statistical Office, and other relevant government organizations. For collected data that may not be analyzed due to the lack of past data and the alteration of code names, data pre-processing work should be performed. At the second stage of this process, an optimal model for market forecasting should be selected. This model can be varied on the basis of the characteristics of each categorized industry. As this study is focused on the ICT industry, which has more frequent new technology appearances resulting in changes of the market structure, Logistic model, Gompertz model, and Bass model are selected. A hybrid model that combines different models can also be considered. The hybrid model considered for use in this study analyzes the size of the market potential through the Logistic and Gompertz models, and then the figures are used for the Bass model. The third stage of this process is to evaluate which model most accurately explains the data. In order to do this, the parameter should be estimated on the basis of the collected past time series data to generate the models' predictive value and calculate the root-mean squared error (RMSE). The model that shows the lowest average RMSE value for every product type is considered as the best model. At the fourth stage of this process, based on the estimated parameter value generated by the best model, a market growth pattern map is constructed with self-organizing map algorithm. A self-organizing map is learning with market pattern parameters for all products or services as input data, and the products or services are organized into an $N{\times}N$ map. The number of clusters increase from 2 to M, depending on the characteristics of the nodes on the map. The clusters are divided into zones, and the clusters with the ability to provide the most meaningful explanation are selected. Based on the final selection of clusters, the boundaries between the nodes are selected and, ultimately, the market growth pattern map is completed. The last step is to determine the final characteristics of the clusters as well as the market growth curve. The average of the market growth pattern parameters in the clusters is taken to be a representative figure. Using this figure, a growth curve is drawn for each cluster, and their characteristics are analyzed. Also, taking into consideration the product types in each cluster, their characteristics can be qualitatively generated. We expect that the process and system that this paper suggests can be used as a tool for forecasting demand in the ICT and other industries.

• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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• v.27 no.1
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• pp.75-94
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• 2011

This paper is concerned about applying the AHP(Analytic Hierarchy Process) for a priority analysis of equipment operation plan to improve productivity of the container terminal in Gwangyang port. In this study, main elements of container terminal are assumed as into yard equipment area, transport equipment area, berth equipment area and C/Center area. A questionnaire is used to collect the opinions of equipment operating department and operational planning department. On the whole, the result of the analyses reveals that the most important area is yard equipment area. Examining each department is responses, equipment operating department preferred the C/Center area to other areas, on the other hand, operational planning department preferred yard equipment area. The result of this study suggests some guidelines for deciding priority of operation plan in the container terminal.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.29 no.4
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• pp.29-41
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• 2011

This study investigates the factor that influences commuting time to work when individuals allocate their time for different types of activities. The commuting time is an important indicator for an individual to determine the residence and choose the means of transportation. The analysis uses the data collected from people who live in Seoul metropolitan area including Seoul, Incheon and Gyeonggi Province, and commute to work and making the simple linkage travel (home-work-home) within the area. For the analysis, the Cox hazard proportional methodology was adopted. The method is known to be well applied without assuming any distribution in case of the dependent variable being continuous. For the covariate, the interaction effect between the space variable of the work place and the variable of transportation has been also included in the model. The commuting time to work has been estimated for both 1) the whole metropolitan area and 2) the separate regions i.e., Seoul, Incheon and Gyeonggi-Do. The result reveals that characteristic variables related to individual, household and travel properties influence the mode of transportation and the time allocated for commuting to work (p<0.01). This study also demonstrates the usefulness of the Cox hazard proportional model. The data used in this study is the actual household travel data surveyed in 2006 in the metropolitan area, and analyzing the survey data in 2010 is currently in progress. Comparison of the two survey data sets seeking any behavioral change is suggested for the future study.

• Korean Business Review
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• v.11
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• pp.195-216
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• 1998

Ownership of an asset can be identified with the right to exercise "residual control" where the contract is silent about decision rights, or with the right to receive any "residual returns" that remain after contractual. obligations are fulfilled. Although the concept of "ownership" seems reasonably clear in many of the cases, the concepts of residual control and the residual returns that define ownership are actually quite elusive. For large corporations, there is really no single individual who owns both the residual returns and the residual control. Despite the limited qualifications, ownership is clearly. the most common and effective meas to motivate people to create, maintain, and improve the value of assets. In this paper, we try to clarify the relationships among financial structure, ownership, and corporate control with the concept of ownership defined as the residual control and the residual returns, Financial securities are not just claims to part of a firm's net income. They give the security holder certain rights. A careful matching of rights of control and returns can create incentives that increase total value of the firms. In the corporate firms, managers, lenders, and shareholders have different interests. And the financial structure affects how different those interests are and what decisions management will make. Managers are, in general, better informed than investors about the firm's prospects. The financial decisions by managers may affect investors' beliefs and, therefore, the price of shares and the value of the firm.

• The Journal of Korean Institute of Communications and Information Sciences
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• v.26 no.11B
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• pp.1501-1509
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• 2001

Recently, the use of wireless communication systems has been rapidly increasing, which results in a difficult problem in efficient control of limited frequency resources. As a way of solving this problem, the ultra wideband time hopping impulse radio system attracts much attention. The impulse radio system communicates pulse position modulated data using Gaussian monocycle pulses of very short duration less than 1 nsec. Thus the transmitted signal has very low power spectral density and ultra wide bandwidth from near D.C. to a few GHz. It is blown that it hardly interferes with the existing communication systems because of its very low power spectral density. The purpose of this paper is to characterize multipath propagation of the impulse radio signal and to evaluate the performance of the correlator-based receiver for the multipath environments. In this paper, we consider the deterministic two-path model and the statistical indoor multipath model of Saleh and Valenzuela. For the two-path model the output of the correlator with the ideal reference waveform varies according to the relative difference between the indirect path delay and the time interval of PPM, and to the indirect path gains. In addition, the characteristics of bit error rates is measured for the two models through computer simulation. The simulation results indicate that the performance of the impulse radio system depends both on the relative difference between the indirect path delay and the time interval of PPM, and on the indirect path gains. Furthermore, it is observed that the reference signal designed for the AWGN channel can not be applied to the multipath channels.

• Journal of Information Management
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• v.42 no.1
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• pp.85-111
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• 2011

The purpose of this study was to seek a workable alternative to replace a big deal related to the journal budget for the maintenance of academic libraries with the largest issue on the E-journal consortium. The contents of this study was to present it. It had examined the current situation, strengths, weaknesses and corresponding to replace the big deal contract. After reviewing the literature, we looked into the alternative activities for the big deal such as open access-based, usage-based, consortium improvement-based, publishers lead, and other models. As a result, the 'consortium cost reapportion model' was an alternative for the KESLI. The alternative was in the short term for cost division format, but long-term oriented for a consortium single(bloc) payment type or national licence model. The model was based on the data from the last year. It had evaluated download the PDF and HTML documents, but the three times weighting more than others, and the rest of 14 factors of 0.5 to 5 out of 100 total score. The total amount negotiated by national units 10, 20 and 30 grades for the final step was allocated to the participating library on the KESLI consortium.

• Research in Community and Public Health Nursing
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• v.11 no.1
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• pp.289-316
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• 2000

우리나라의 경우 지역사회 재난 관리계획과 훈련이 보건의료적 모형이라기 보다는 민방위 모형에 입각하기 때문에 사고 현장에서의 환자 중증도 분류, 합리적 환자배분 및 이송, 병원 응급실에서의 대처 등이 체계적으로 이루어지지 못하고 있으며, 지역사회가 이에 즉각적으로 반응할 수 없다. 본 연구는 삼풍 붕괴사고 시에 대응방식과 그 후의 우리나라 응급의료 체계를 분석함으로써 대형사고 예방과 재난관리를 위한 우리나라 응급의료체계의 개선방안과 간호교육에서의 준비부분을 제시하고자 한다. 1 삼풍 사고 발생시에는 이를 관장할 만한 법적 근거인 인위적 재해에 관한 재난관리법이 없었다. 따라서 현장에서는 의학적 명령체계를 확보하지 못했기 때문에 현장에서의 응급 처치는 전혀 이루어지지 못하였다. 현장에서의 중증도 분류. 응급조치와 의뢰, 병원과 현장본부 그리고 구급차간의 통신 체계 두절, 환자 운송 중 의료지시를 받을 수 있도록 인력, 장비, 통신 체계가 준비되지 못하였던 점이 주요한 문제였다. 또한 병원 응급실에서는 재난 계획이 없거나 있었더라도 이를 활성화하여 병원의 운영 체계를 변환해가지 못하였다. 2. 삼풍백화점 붕괴사고 한달 후에는 인위적 재해에 대한 재난관리법이 제정되고, 행정부 수준별로 매년 지역요구에 합당한 재난관리 계획을 세우도록 법으로 규정하였다. 재난 관리법에는 보건의료 측면에서의 현장대응, 주민 참여, 응급 의료적 대처, 정보의 배된. 교육/훈련 등이 포함되어 있어야 한다. 그러나 법적 기반이 마련된 이후에도 한국 재난 계획 내에는 응급의료 측면의 대응 영역은 부처간 역할의 명시가 미흡하며, 현장에서의 응급 대응과정을 수행할 수 있는 운영 지침이 없이 명목상 언급으로 그치고 있기 때문에 계획을 활성화시켜 지역사회에서 운영하기는 어렵다. 즉 이 내용 속에는 사고의 확인 /공고, 응급 사고 지령, 요구 평가, 사상자의 중증도 분류와 안정화, 사상자 수집, 현장 처치 생명보존과 내과 외과적 응급처치가 수반된 이송, 사고 후 정신적 스트레스 관리, 사고의 총괄적 평가 부분에 대한 인력간 부처간 역할과 업무가 분명히 제시되어 있지 못하여, 사고 발생시 가장 중요한 연계적 업무 처리나 부문간 협조를 하기 어렵다. 의료 기관과 응급실/중환자실, 시민 안전을 책임지고 있는 기관들과의 상호 협력의 연계는 부족하다. 즉 현재의 재난 대비 계획 속에는 부처별 분명한 업무 분장, 재난 상황에 따른 시나리오적 대비 계획과 이를 훈련할 틀을 확보하고 있지 못하다. 3. 지방 정부 수준의 재난 계획서에는 재난 발생시 보건의료에 관한 사항 전반을 공공 보건소가 핵심적 역할을 하며 재난 관리에 대처해야 된다고 규정하고 있다. 그러므로 보건소는 지역사회 중심의 재난 관리 계획을 구성하고 이를 운영하며, 재난 현장에서의 응급 치료 대응 과정은 구조/ 구명을 책임지고 있는 공공기관인 소방서와 지역의 응급의료병원에게 위임한다. 즉 지역사회 재난 관리 계획이 보건소 주도하에 관내 병원과 관련기관(소방서. 경찰서)이 협동하여 만들고 업무를 명확히 분담하여 연계방안을 만든다. 이는 재난관리 대처에 성공여부를 결정하는 주요 요인이다. 4 대한 적십자사의 지역사회 주민에 대한 교육 프로그램은 연중 열리고 있다. 그러나 대부분의 교육주제는 건강증진 영역이며. 응급의료 관리는 전체 교육시간의 8%를 차지하며 이중 재난 준비를 위한 주민 교육 프로그램은 없다. 또한 특정 연령층이 모여있는 학교의 경우도 정규 보건교육 시간이 없기 때문에 생명구조나 응급처치를 체계적으로 배우고 연습할 기회가 없으면서 국민의 재난 준비의 기반확대가 되고 있지 못하다. 5. 병원은 재난 관리 위원회를 군성하여 병원의 진료권역 내에 있는 여러 자원을 감안한 포괄적인 재난관리계획을 세우고, 지역사회를 포함한 훈련을 해야 한다. 그러나 현재 병원은 명목상의 재난 관리 계획을 갖고 있을 뿐이다. 6. 재난관리 준비도를 평가할 때 병원응급실 치료 팀의 인력과 장비 등은 비교적 기준을 충족시키고 있었으나 병원의 재난 관리 계획은 전혀 훈련되고 있지 못하였다 그러므로 우리나라 재난 관리의 준비를 위해서는 현장의 응급의료체계, 재난 대응 계획, 이의 훈련을 통한 주민교육이 선행되어야만 개선될 수 있다. 즉 민방위 훈련 모델이 아닌 응급의료 서비스 모델에 입각한 장기적 노력과 재원의 투입이 필요하며, 지역사회를 중심으로 대응 준비와 이의 활성화 전략 개발, 훈련과 연습. 교육에 노력을 부여해야 한다. 7. 현장의 1차 응급처치자에 대해서는 법적으로 명시하고 있는 역할이 없다. 한국에서는 응급구조사 1급과 2급에 대한 교육과 규정을 1995년 이후 응급의료에 관한 법률에서 정하고 있다. 이 교육과정은 미국이 정하고 있는 응급구조사 과정 기준과 유사하지만 실습실이나 현장에서의 실습시간이 절대적으로 부족하다. 덧붙여 승인된 응급구조사 교육 기관의 강사는 강사로서의 자격기준을 충족할 뿐 아니라 실습강사는 대체적으로 1주일의 1/2은 응급 구조차를 탑승하여 현장 활동을 끊임없이 하고 있으며, 실습은 시나리오 유형으로 진행된다. 그러므로 우리나라의 경우 응급 구조사가 현장 기술 인력으로 역할 할 수 있도록 교과과정 내에서 실습을 강화 시켜야하며, 졸업생은 인턴쉽을 통한 현장 능력을 배양시키는 것이 필요하다. 8. 간호사의 경우 응급전문간호사의 자격을 부여받게 됨에 따라, 이를 위한 표준 교육 지침을 개발함으로써 병원 전 처치와 재난시 대응할 수 있는 역량을 보완해야 한다. 또한 현 자격 부여 프로그램 내용을 고려하여 정규자격 간호사가 현장 1차 치료자(first responder)로 역할 할 수 있도록 간호학 교과과정을 부분 보완해야한다.

• The Journal of Engineering Geology
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• v.33 no.1
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• pp.105-119
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• 2023

Water supply is decreasing due to climate change, and coastal and island regions are highly dependent on groundwater, reducing the amount of available water. For sustainable water supply in coastal and island regions, it is necessary to accurately diagnose the current condition and efficiently distribute and manage water. For a precise analysis of the groundwater flow in the coastal island region, submarine fresh groundwater discharge was calculated for the Seongsan basin in the eastern part of Jeju Island. Two methods were used to estimate the thickness of the fresh groundwater. One method employed vertical interpolation of measured electrical conductivity in a multi depth monitoring well; the other used theoretical Ghyben-Herzberg ratio. The value using the Ghyben-Herzberg ratio makes it impossible to accurately estimate the changing salt-saltwater interface, and the value analyzed by electrical conductivity can represent the current state of the freshwater-saltwater interface. Observed parameter was distributed on a virtual grid. The average of submarine fresh groundwater discharge fluxes for the virtual grid was determined as the watershed's representative flux. The submarine fresh groundwater discharge and flux distribution by year were also calculated at the basin scale. The method using electrical conductivity estimated the submarine fresh groundwater discharge from 2018 to 2020 to be 6.27 × 10⁶ m³/year; the method using the Ghyben-Herzberg ratio estimated a discharge of 10.87 × 10⁶ m³/year. The results presented in this study can be used as basis data for policies that determine sustainable water supply by using precise water budget analysis in coastal and island areas.

• Journal of the Korean Geographical Society
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• v.28 no.4
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• pp.321-355
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• 1993

This paper focuses on the geographical pattern of financial activities in the Korean urban system during 1975-1990, based on the assumption that financial activities can reveal control points in Korea's urban economy. In terms of spatial evolution of financial insitutions, different locational characteristics are revealed among different types of financial institutions, implying the role of urban hierarchy. Financial resources are highly concentrated in the capital region, Seoul and Kyonggi Province. Both centralization trends into the large metropolitan cities and relative declines of medium and small cities within the Korean urban system, have been experienced over the study period. Financial activities sustain relatively stable hierarchical structure in the urban hierarchy. Regarding the financial flows, dominant flow zones centered on major metropolitan cities are identified, clearly showing a prominant role of Seoul in financial flows in the entire urban system.

• The Korean Journal of Air & Space Law and Policy
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• v.32 no.2
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• pp.129-153
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• 2017

Fair Competition policy in aviation field has been discussed since open skies policy began in 1970s. This issue has been also the main topic in the ICAO's Worldwide Air Transport Conference, the Air Transport Symposium, etc. ICAO defines competition as the existent or potential rivalry between two or more operators, carriers or groups, striving for advantages in the same market based on different prices, qualities and services. In a broader sense, the definition includes more various meanings; reasonable, fair, effective, and unrestricted competitions. Nowadays, competition laws and regulations to air transportation have been applied more frequently and the issues varies from antitrust immunity, mergers and alliances, abuse of dominant positions, capacity dumping and predatory pricing, sales and marketing, to airport charges and fees, state aid and loan guarantees. Now, the competition among the airlines or nations in aviation industry is changing to cooperation level. A lot of airlines try to survive by various cooperation methods. Therefore the policy of Korean aviation industry should be developed, taking so-called "the viewpoint of national aviation industry ecosystem" into consideration and Korean government should prepare a policy of fair competition to cope with it. First, in the process of open skies policy with neighboring countries such as China, Japan and the Middle East, it is necessary to apply the fair competition act and prepare laws and regulations to implement it. Second, the standards of effective ownership and control of air transportation business should be reviewed. Third, in preparation for aviation agreements and liberalization, the Korean aviation industry needs to study and review competition and cooperation issues through the analysis of strict aviation market structure for airlines and airport operations. Fourth, it is necessary to create a fair air transportation environment for the development of air transportation and competitiveness through preemptive policies such as the approval of mergers, acquisitions, JV and the ripple effects analysis.