• Title/Summary/Keyword: 결정성 분석

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A Study on Risk Parity Asset Allocation Model with XGBoos (XGBoost를 활용한 리스크패리티 자산배분 모형에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Younghoon;Choi, HeungSik;Kim, SunWoong
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.26 no.1
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    • pp.135-149
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    • 2020
  • Artificial intelligences are changing world. Financial market is also not an exception. Robo-Advisor is actively being developed, making up the weakness of traditional asset allocation methods and replacing the parts that are difficult for the traditional methods. It makes automated investment decisions with artificial intelligence algorithms and is used with various asset allocation models such as mean-variance model, Black-Litterman model and risk parity model. Risk parity model is a typical risk-based asset allocation model which is focused on the volatility of assets. It avoids investment risk structurally. So it has stability in the management of large size fund and it has been widely used in financial field. XGBoost model is a parallel tree-boosting method. It is an optimized gradient boosting model designed to be highly efficient and flexible. It not only makes billions of examples in limited memory environments but is also very fast to learn compared to traditional boosting methods. It is frequently used in various fields of data analysis and has a lot of advantages. So in this study, we propose a new asset allocation model that combines risk parity model and XGBoost machine learning model. This model uses XGBoost to predict the risk of assets and applies the predictive risk to the process of covariance estimation. There are estimated errors between the estimation period and the actual investment period because the optimized asset allocation model estimates the proportion of investments based on historical data. these estimated errors adversely affect the optimized portfolio performance. This study aims to improve the stability and portfolio performance of the model by predicting the volatility of the next investment period and reducing estimated errors of optimized asset allocation model. As a result, it narrows the gap between theory and practice and proposes a more advanced asset allocation model. In this study, we used the Korean stock market price data for a total of 17 years from 2003 to 2019 for the empirical test of the suggested model. The data sets are specifically composed of energy, finance, IT, industrial, material, telecommunication, utility, consumer, health care and staple sectors. We accumulated the value of prediction using moving-window method by 1,000 in-sample and 20 out-of-sample, so we produced a total of 154 rebalancing back-testing results. We analyzed portfolio performance in terms of cumulative rate of return and got a lot of sample data because of long period results. Comparing with traditional risk parity model, this experiment recorded improvements in both cumulative yield and reduction of estimated errors. The total cumulative return is 45.748%, about 5% higher than that of risk parity model and also the estimated errors are reduced in 9 out of 10 industry sectors. The reduction of estimated errors increases stability of the model and makes it easy to apply in practical investment. The results of the experiment showed improvement of portfolio performance by reducing the estimated errors of the optimized asset allocation model. Many financial models and asset allocation models are limited in practical investment because of the most fundamental question of whether the past characteristics of assets will continue into the future in the changing financial market. However, this study not only takes advantage of traditional asset allocation models, but also supplements the limitations of traditional methods and increases stability by predicting the risks of assets with the latest algorithm. There are various studies on parametric estimation methods to reduce the estimated errors in the portfolio optimization. We also suggested a new method to reduce estimated errors in optimized asset allocation model using machine learning. So this study is meaningful in that it proposes an advanced artificial intelligence asset allocation model for the fast-developing financial markets.

Development and Validation of an Analytical Method for Fungicide Fluoxastrobin Determination in Agricultural Products (농산물 중 살균제 Fluoxastrobin의 시험법 개발 및 유효성 검증)

  • So Eun, Lee;Su Jung, Lee;Sun Young, Gu;Chae Young, Park;Hye-Sun, Shin;Sung Eun, Kang;Jung Mi, Lee;Yun Mi, Chung;Gui Hyun, Jang;Guiim, Moon
    • Journal of Food Hygiene and Safety
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    • v.37 no.6
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    • pp.373-384
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    • 2022
  • Fluoxastrobin a fungicide developed from Strobilurus species mushroom extracts, can be used as an effective pesticide to control fungal diseases. In this study, we optimized the extraction and purification of fluoxastrobin according to its physical and chemical properties using the QuEChERS method and developed an LC-MS/MS-based analysis method. For extraction, we used acetonitrile as the extraction solvent, along with MgSO4 and PSA. The limit of quantitation of fluoxastrobin was 0.01 mg/kg. We used 0.01, 0.1, and 0.5 mg/kg of five representative agricultural products and treated them with fluoxastrobin. The coefficients of determination (R2) of fluoxastrobin and fluoxastrobin Z isomer were > 0.998. The average recovery rates of fluoxastrobin (n=5) and fluoxastrobin Z isomer were 75.5-100.3% and 75.0-103.9%, respectively. The relative standard deviations (RSDs) were < 5.5% and < 4.3% for fluoxastrobin and fluoxastrobin Z isomer, respectively. We also performed an interlaboratory validation at Gwangju Regional Food and Drug Administration and compared the recovery rates and RSDs obtained for fluoxastrobin and fluoxastrobin Z isomer at the external lab with our results to validate our analysis method. In the external lab, the average recovery rates and RSDs of fluoxastrobin and fluoxastrobin Z isomer at each concentration were 79.5-100.5% and 78.8-104.7% and < 18.1% and < 10.2%, respectively. In all treatment groups, the concentrations were less than those described by the 'Codex Alimentarius Commission' and the 'Standard procedure for preparing test methods for food, etc.'. Therefore, fluoxastrobin is safe for use as a pesticide.

Incorporating Social Relationship discovered from User's Behavior into Collaborative Filtering (사용자 행동 기반의 사회적 관계를 결합한 사용자 협업적 여과 방법)

  • Thay, Setha;Ha, Inay;Jo, Geun-Sik
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.19 no.2
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    • pp.1-20
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    • 2013
  • Nowadays, social network is a huge communication platform for providing people to connect with one another and to bring users together to share common interests, experiences, and their daily activities. Users spend hours per day in maintaining personal information and interacting with other people via posting, commenting, messaging, games, social events, and applications. Due to the growth of user's distributed information in social network, there is a great potential to utilize the social data to enhance the quality of recommender system. There are some researches focusing on social network analysis that investigate how social network can be used in recommendation domain. Among these researches, we are interested in taking advantages of the interaction between a user and others in social network that can be determined and known as social relationship. Furthermore, mostly user's decisions before purchasing some products depend on suggestion of people who have either the same preferences or closer relationship. For this reason, we believe that user's relationship in social network can provide an effective way to increase the quality in prediction user's interests of recommender system. Therefore, social relationship between users encountered from social network is a common factor to improve the way of predicting user's preferences in the conventional approach. Recommender system is dramatically increasing in popularity and currently being used by many e-commerce sites such as Amazon.com, Last.fm, eBay.com, etc. Collaborative filtering (CF) method is one of the essential and powerful techniques in recommender system for suggesting the appropriate items to user by learning user's preferences. CF method focuses on user data and generates automatic prediction about user's interests by gathering information from users who share similar background and preferences. Specifically, the intension of CF method is to find users who have similar preferences and to suggest target user items that were mostly preferred by those nearest neighbor users. There are two basic units that need to be considered by CF method, the user and the item. Each user needs to provide his rating value on items i.e. movies, products, books, etc to indicate their interests on those items. In addition, CF uses the user-rating matrix to find a group of users who have similar rating with target user. Then, it predicts unknown rating value for items that target user has not rated. Currently, CF has been successfully implemented in both information filtering and e-commerce applications. However, it remains some important challenges such as cold start, data sparsity, and scalability reflected on quality and accuracy of prediction. In order to overcome these challenges, many researchers have proposed various kinds of CF method such as hybrid CF, trust-based CF, social network-based CF, etc. In the purpose of improving the recommendation performance and prediction accuracy of standard CF, in this paper we propose a method which integrates traditional CF technique with social relationship between users discovered from user's behavior in social network i.e. Facebook. We identify user's relationship from behavior of user such as posts and comments interacted with friends in Facebook. We believe that social relationship implicitly inferred from user's behavior can be likely applied to compensate the limitation of conventional approach. Therefore, we extract posts and comments of each user by using Facebook Graph API and calculate feature score among each term to obtain feature vector for computing similarity of user. Then, we combine the result with similarity value computed using traditional CF technique. Finally, our system provides a list of recommended items according to neighbor users who have the biggest total similarity value to the target user. In order to verify and evaluate our proposed method we have performed an experiment on data collected from our Movies Rating System. Prediction accuracy evaluation is conducted to demonstrate how much our algorithm gives the correctness of recommendation to user in terms of MAE. Then, the evaluation of performance is made to show the effectiveness of our method in terms of precision, recall, and F1-measure. Evaluation on coverage is also included in our experiment to see the ability of generating recommendation. The experimental results show that our proposed method outperform and more accurate in suggesting items to users with better performance. The effectiveness of user's behavior in social network particularly shows the significant improvement by up to 6% on recommendation accuracy. Moreover, experiment of recommendation performance shows that incorporating social relationship observed from user's behavior into CF is beneficial and useful to generate recommendation with 7% improvement of performance compared with benchmark methods. Finally, we confirm that interaction between users in social network is able to enhance the accuracy and give better recommendation in conventional approach.

The Research on Recommender for New Customers Using Collaborative Filtering and Social Network Analysis (협력필터링과 사회연결망을 이용한 신규고객 추천방법에 대한 연구)

  • Shin, Chang-Hoon;Lee, Ji-Won;Yang, Han-Na;Choi, Il Young
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.18 no.4
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    • pp.19-42
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    • 2012
  • Consumer consumption patterns are shifting rapidly as buyers migrate from offline markets to e-commerce routes, such as shopping channels on TV and internet shopping malls. In the offline markets consumers go shopping, see the shopping items, and choose from them. Recently consumers tend towards buying at shopping sites free from time and place. However, as e-commerce markets continue to expand, customers are complaining that it is becoming a bigger hassle to shop online. In the online shopping, shoppers have very limited information on the products. The delivered products can be different from what they have wanted. This case results to purchase cancellation. Because these things happen frequently, they are likely to refer to the consumer reviews and companies should be concerned about consumer's voice. E-commerce is a very important marketing tool for suppliers. It can recommend products to customers and connect them directly with suppliers with just a click of a button. The recommender system is being studied in various ways. Some of the more prominent ones include recommendation based on best-seller and demographics, contents filtering, and collaborative filtering. However, these systems all share two weaknesses : they cannot recommend products to consumers on a personal level, and they cannot recommend products to new consumers with no buying history. To fix these problems, we can use the information which has been collected from the questionnaires about their demographics and preference ratings. But, consumers feel these questionnaires are a burden and are unlikely to provide correct information. This study investigates combining collaborative filtering with the centrality of social network analysis. This centrality measure provides the information to infer the preference of new consumers from the shopping history of existing and previous ones. While the past researches had focused on the existing consumers with similar shopping patterns, this study tried to improve the accuracy of recommendation with all shopping information, which included not only similar shopping patterns but also dissimilar ones. Data used in this study, Movie Lens' data, was made by Group Lens research Project Team at University of Minnesota to recommend movies with a collaborative filtering technique. This data was built from the questionnaires of 943 respondents which gave the information on the preference ratings on 1,684 movies. Total data of 100,000 was organized by time, with initial data of 50,000 being existing customers and the latter 50,000 being new customers. The proposed recommender system consists of three systems : [+] group recommender system, [-] group recommender system, and integrated recommender system. [+] group recommender system looks at customers with similar buying patterns as 'neighbors', whereas [-] group recommender system looks at customers with opposite buying patterns as 'contraries'. Integrated recommender system uses both of the aforementioned recommender systems to recommend movies that both recommender systems pick. The study of three systems allows us to find the most suitable recommender system that will optimize accuracy and customer satisfaction. Our analysis showed that integrated recommender system is the best solution among the three systems studied, followed by [-] group recommended system and [+] group recommender system. This result conforms to the intuition that the accuracy of recommendation can be improved using all the relevant information. We provided contour maps and graphs to easily compare the accuracy of each recommender system. Although we saw improvement on accuracy with the integrated recommender system, we must remember that this research is based on static data with no live customers. In other words, consumers did not see the movies actually recommended from the system. Also, this recommendation system may not work well with products other than movies. Thus, it is important to note that recommendation systems need particular calibration for specific product/customer types.

A Study on the Effect of Booth Recommendation System on Exhibition Visitors Unplanned Visit Behavior (전시장 참관객의 계획되지 않은 방문행동에 있어서 부스추천시스템의 영향에 대한 연구)

  • Chung, Nam-Ho;Kim, Jae-Kyung
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.17 no.4
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    • pp.175-191
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    • 2011
  • With the MICE(Meeting, Incentive travel, Convention, Exhibition) industry coming into the spotlight, there has been a growing interest in the domestic exhibition industry. Accordingly, in Korea, various studies of the industry are being conducted to enhance exhibition performance as in the United States or Europe. Some studies are focusing particularly on analyzing visiting patterns of exhibition visitors using intelligent information technology in consideration of the variations in effects of watching exhibitions according to the exhibitory environment or technique, thereby understanding visitors and, furthermore, drawing the correlations between exhibiting businesses and improving exhibition performance. However, previous studies related to booth recommendation systems only discussed the accuracy of recommendation in the aspect of a system rather than determining changes in visitors' behavior or perception by recommendation. A booth recommendation system enables visitors to visit unplanned exhibition booths by recommending visitors suitable ones based on information about visitors' visits. Meanwhile, some visitors may be satisfied with their unplanned visits, while others may consider the recommending process to be cumbersome or obstructive to their free observation. In the latter case, the exhibition is likely to produce worse results compared to when visitors are allowed to freely observe the exhibition. Thus, in order to apply a booth recommendation system to exhibition halls, the factors affecting the performance of the system should be generally examined, and the effects of the system on visitors' unplanned visiting behavior should be carefully studied. As such, this study aims to determine the factors that affect the performance of a booth recommendation system by reviewing theories and literature and to examine the effects of visitors' perceived performance of the system on their satisfaction of unplanned behavior and intention to reuse the system. Toward this end, the unplanned behavior theory was adopted as the theoretical framework. Unplanned behavior can be defined as "behavior that is done by consumers without any prearranged plan". Thus far, consumers' unplanned behavior has been studied in various fields. The field of marketing, in particular, has focused on unplanned purchasing among various types of unplanned behavior, which has been often confused with impulsive purchasing. Nevertheless, the two are different from each other; while impulsive purchasing means strong, continuous urges to purchase things, unplanned purchasing is behavior with purchasing decisions that are made inside a store, not before going into one. In other words, all impulsive purchases are unplanned, but not all unplanned purchases are impulsive. Then why do consumers engage in unplanned behavior? Regarding this question, many scholars have made many suggestions, but there has been a consensus that it is because consumers have enough flexibility to change their plans in the middle instead of developing plans thoroughly. In other words, if unplanned behavior costs much, it will be difficult for consumers to change their prearranged plans. In the case of the exhibition hall examined in this study, visitors learn the programs of the hall and plan which booth to visit in advance. This is because it is practically impossible for visitors to visit all of the various booths that an exhibition operates due to their limited time. Therefore, if the booth recommendation system proposed in this study recommends visitors booths that they may like, they can change their plans and visit the recommended booths. Such visiting behavior can be regarded similarly to consumers' visit to a store or tourists' unplanned behavior in a tourist spot and can be understand in the same context as the recent increase in tourism consumers' unplanned behavior influenced by information devices. Thus, the following research model was established. This research model uses visitors' perceived performance of a booth recommendation system as the parameter, and the factors affecting the performance include trust in the system, exhibition visitors' knowledge levels, expected personalization of the system, and the system's threat to freedom. In addition, the causal relation between visitors' satisfaction of their perceived performance of the system and unplanned behavior and their intention to reuse the system was determined. While doing so, trust in the booth recommendation system consisted of 2nd order factors such as competence, benevolence, and integrity, while the other factors consisted of 1st order factors. In order to verify this model, a booth recommendation system was developed to be tested in 2011 DMC Culture Open, and 101 visitors were empirically studied and analyzed. The results are as follows. First, visitors' trust was the most important factor in the booth recommendation system, and the visitors who used the system perceived its performance as a success based on their trust. Second, visitors' knowledge levels also had significant effects on the performance of the system, which indicates that the performance of a recommendation system requires an advance understanding. In other words, visitors with higher levels of understanding of the exhibition hall learned better the usefulness of the booth recommendation system. Third, expected personalization did not have significant effects, which is a different result from previous studies' results. This is presumably because the booth recommendation system used in this study did not provide enough personalized services. Fourth, the recommendation information provided by the booth recommendation system was not considered to threaten or restrict one's freedom, which means it is valuable in terms of usefulness. Lastly, high performance of the booth recommendation system led to visitors' high satisfaction levels of unplanned behavior and intention to reuse the system. To sum up, in order to analyze the effects of a booth recommendation system on visitors' unplanned visits to a booth, empirical data were examined based on the unplanned behavior theory and, accordingly, useful suggestions for the establishment and design of future booth recommendation systems were made. In the future, further examination should be conducted through elaborate survey questions and survey objects.

Quantitative Expression Analysis of Functional Genes in Four Dog Breeds (개의 네 품종에서 기능 유전자들에 대한 정량적 발현 분석)

  • Gim, Jeong-An;Kim, Sang-Hoon;Lee, Hee-Eun;Jeong, Hoim;Nam, Gyu-Hwi;Kim, Min Kyu;Huh, Jae-Won;Choi, Bong-Hwan;Kim, Heui-Soo
    • Journal of Life Science
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    • v.25 no.8
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    • pp.861-869
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    • 2015
  • One of the domesticated species; the dog has been selectively bred for various aims by human. The dog has many breeds, which are artificially selected for specific behaviors and morphologies. Dogs contribute their life to human as working dogs for guide, rescue, detection or etc. Working dogs requires good personality, such as gentleness, robustness and patience for performing their special duty. Many studies have concentrated on finding genetic marker for selecting the high-quality working dog. In this study, we confirmed quantitative expression patterns of eight genes (ABAT; 4-Aminobutyrate Aminotransferase, PLCB1; Phospholipase C, Beta 1, SLC10A4; Solute Carrier Family 10, Member 4, WNT1; Wingless-Type MMTV Integration Site Family, Member 1, BARX2; BarH-Like Homeobox 2, NEUROD6; Neuronal Differentiation 6, SEPT9; Septin 9 and TBR1; T-Box, Brain, 1) among brains tissues from four dog breeds (Beagle, Sapsaree, Shepherd and Jindo), because these genes were expressed and have functions in brain mostly. Specially, BARX2, SEPT9, SLC10A4, TBR1 and WNT1 genes were highly expressed in Beagle and Jindo, and Sapsaree and German Shepherd were vice versa. The biological significance of total genes was estimated by database for annotation, visualization and integrated discovery (DAVID) to determine a different gene ontology (GO) class. In these analyses, we suppose to these eight genes could provide influential information for brain development, and intelligence of organisms. Taken together, these results could provide clues to discover biomarker related to functional traits in brain, and beneficial for selecting superior working dogs.

A Study on Relationship among Restaurant Brand Image, Service Quality, Price Acceptability, and Revisit Intention (레스토랑의 브랜드 이미지와 서비스품질ㆍ가격수용성ㆍ재 방문의도와의 관계)

  • 김형순;유경민
    • Culinary science and hospitality research
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    • v.9 no.4
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    • pp.163-178
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    • 2003
  • The purpose of this study is to find the effect of restaurant brand image upon service quality, price acceptability, and revisit intention, and to propose the importance of brand image to operators and managers who manage restaurants. To accomplish the purpose of this study, sampling was taken among customers who visit six deluxe hotels and six family restaurants in Seoul. Six hundreds questionnaires were distributed to each hotel and restaurant and 487 valid samples were selected for statistical analysis. The questionnaire consists of 77 items about demographical characteristics, brand image, service quality, revisit intention, price acceptability, and spending patterns. SPSS WIN 10.0 was used for statistical analysis. A research model was built up and three null hypotheses were established. Based on theses research model and three null hypotheses, the test was conducted, and the results are as follows. Brand image has an effect upon service quality, and furthermore this can be preceding variable of service quality. Also Service quality has an effect upon price acceptability and revisit intention.

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Major Components of Teas Manufactured with Leaf and Flower of Korean Native Camellia japonica L. (국내 자생 동백나무의 잎과 꽃으로 만든 엽차와 화차의 주요성분)

  • Cha, Young-Ju;Lee, Jang-Won;Kim, Ju-Hee;Park, Min-Hee;Lee, Sook-Young
    • Korean Journal of Medicinal Crop Science
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    • v.12 no.3
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    • pp.183-190
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    • 2004
  • The major compositions of leaf tea and flower tea were investigated to develope as a new functional tea using Korean native Camellia japonica L. Most of leaf teas, except flower tea, were considered as good materials with basic conditions for tea manufacture because water content was below 6%. Crude protein was the greatest component in roasted young leaf tea (RYLT), crude fats in roasted mature leaf tea (RMLT) and ashes in fermented young leaf tea (FYLT). Caffein were present as the highest amount (5.18%) in steamed mature leaf tea (SMLT), showing less amount than green tea. Catechin were contained as the highest amount in all kinds of teas, especially FYLT was the highest (9.57%). Tannin, which highly related with tea quality including astringent taste, color and perfume, were present as the highest amount in FYLT. Vitamin C was highly detected in the tea from flowers (22.7 mg/l00 g) rather than in the tea from leaves. The content of theanine were found in flower tea by 1,074 mg/l00 g, and had about twofold of FYLT and RYLT. Among free amino acids, glutamic acid and aspartic acid were higher detected in SMLT and RMLT while asparagine was present as higher amounts in RYLT and FYLT, expecting these components can improve tea taste. Nucleic acids and their derivatives including GMP, hypoxanthine and AMP were detected as the higher amounts by 7.86, 8.57, and $12.67\;{\mu}mol/g$, respectively, however IMP content was even reduced by all manufacturing processes. In all kinds of tea, sugars such as glucose, fructose, sucrose and maltose were detected, specially glucose and fructose were found as highest amount in RFT by 65.5 and 59.6 nmol/0.1 mg, respectively.

The Concept of "Accident" under the Warsaw System (국제항공운송협약상(國際船空運送協約上) 사고(事故)의 개념(槪念))

  • Choi, Jun-Sun
    • The Korean Journal of Air & Space Law and Policy
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    • v.20 no.1
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    • pp.45-85
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    • 2005
  • The purpose of this paper is to examine the concept of "accident" under the Warsaw system including the Warsaw Convention for the Unification of certain Rules for International Carriage by Air of 1929 and the Montreal Convention of 1999. Most leading case on this subject is Air France v. Saks(470 U.S. 392 (1985)). In the Saks case, it was held that the definition of an accident must be applied flexibly, and most courts have adhered to the definition of accident in Saks case, the application of accident has been less than consistent. However, most cases have held that if the event is usual and expected operation of the aircraft, then no accident has occurred. Courts have also held that where the injury results from passenger's own internal reaction to the usual, normal, and expected operations of the aircraft, it is not caused by an accident. As the Warsaw drafters intended to create a system of liability rules that would cover all hazards of air travel, the carrier should liable for the inherent risks of air travel. It is right in that the carrier is in a better position than the passenger to control the risks during air travel. Most US courts have held that carriers are not liable for one passenger's assault on the other passenger. The interactions between passengers are not part of the normal operations of the aircraft and are therefore not covered by the word "accident" under Art 17 of the Warsaw Convention. It is regretful that the Montreal Convention did not attempt to clarify the concepts of accident in itself. In the light of an emerging tendency to hold the air carrier liable for occurrences that do not exactly go to the operation of the aircraft, it is desirable to regulate that the carrier is liable for an "event" instead of an "accident" in accordance with the Guatemala City protocol.

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A Study on Mixed-Mode Survey which Combine the Landline and Mobile Telephone Interviews: The Case of Special Election for the Mayor of Seoul (유.무선전화 병행조사에 대한 연구: 2011년 서울시장 보궐선거 여론조사 사례)

  • Lee, Kyoung-Taeg;Lee, Hwa-Jeong;Hyun, Kyung-Bo
    • Survey Research
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    • v.13 no.1
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    • pp.135-158
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    • 2012
  • Korean telephone surveys have been based on landline telephone directory or RDD(Random Digit Dialing) method. These days, however, there has been an increase of the households with no landline, or households with the line but not willing to register in the directory. Moreover, it is hard to contact young people or office workers who are usually staying out of home in the daytime. Due to these issues above, the predictability of election polls gets weaker. Especially, low accessibility to those who stay out of home when the poll's done, results in predictions with positive inclination toward conservatism. A solution to resolve this problem is to contact respondents by using both mobile and landline phones-via landline phone to those who are at home and via mobile phone to those who are out of home in the daytime(Mixed Mode Survey, hereafter MMS). To conduct MMS, 1) we need to obtain the sampling frames for the landline and mobile surveys, and 2) we need to decide the proportion of sample size of both. In this paper, we propose a heuristic method for conducting MMS. The method uses RDD for the landline phone survey, and the access panel list for the mobile phone survey. The proportion of sample sizes between landline and mobile phones are determined based on the 'Lifestyle and Time Use Study' conducted by Statistics Korea. As a case study, 4 election polls were conducted in the periods of the special election for the mayor of Seoul on Oct 26th, 2011. From the initial 3 polls, reactions and responses regarding the issues raised during the survey period were appropriately covered, and the final poll showed a very close prediction to the real election result.

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