• Title/Summary/Keyword: 건설프로젝트 리스크관리

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A Probabilistic Risk-based Cost Estimation Model for Initial-Stage Decision Making on Apartment Remolding Projects (공동주택 리모델링 초기 단계 의사결정을 위한 확률론적 리스크 기반 비용 예측 모델 개발)

  • Lee, Dong-gun;Cha, Heesung
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.17 no.2
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    • pp.70-79
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    • 2016
  • The current remodeling cost estimation process is not only dependent on the historical data of new building construction, but it also has a poor linkage with risk-based estimation approach. As such, there is a high risk of falling short of initial budget. To overcome this, a risk-based estimation approach is necessary by providing a probabilistic estimation in consideration of the potential risk factors in conducting the remodeling projects. In addition, the decision-making process should be linked with the risk-based estimation results in stead of intuitive and/or experience-based estimation. This study provides a probabilistic estimation process for residential remodeling projects by developing a detailed methodology in which a step-by-step approach can be achieved. The new proposed estimation approach can help in decision-making for remodeling projects in terms of whether to proceed or not, by effectively reflecting the potential risk factors in the early stage of the project. In addition, the study can enhance the reliability of the estimation results by developing a sustainable estimation process model where a risk-based evaluation can be accomplished by setting up the cost-risk relationship database structure.

An Exploratory Research on Quantitative Risk Assessment Methodology Throughout Success Factor Analysis in Project Financing (PF 개발사업의 성공요인 분석을 통한 리스크 평가체계 구축을 위한 기초연구)

  • Lee, Dong-Gun;Cha, Hee-Sung
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.14 no.5
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    • pp.92-102
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    • 2013
  • A Project Financing (PF) is a form of project delivery system that is carried out for the purpose of trying to give help to the development of national economy and the construction industry in order attract private investment. However, in the case of Korea, many PF projects are only taking into account the aspect of maximizing development benefits, and the proliferation of PF results in project failure. In addition, the interruption of business has been one after another in the aftermath of the recent financial crisis. These major cause is the result of efforts to block the potential risk of objectively quantifying operations. Nowadays, PF risk analysis in terms of various factors is insufficient. The purpose of this study is to identify and quantify the extensive risk elements to classify the cause of affecting the success of the project PF study prior to propose a methodology for evaluating the integrity of the project PF based on this and to provide a quantitative system that can evaluate the business risk. This study identified the factors that affect the PF business success and failure and establish the metrics that can be quantified through existing research and expert interviews. Factors influencing the success of the PF obtained as a result of surveys and interviews in assessing the soundness of the PF development conditions in the future be able to take advantage of, as well as an objective assessment tool to be able to take advantage of the development is expected.

An Analysis of Concentrate Competency in Bidding Process for Overseas Project of Domestic Construction Companies (국내건설기업의 해외 프로젝트 입찰단계 우선집중역량 분석)

  • Kim, Ji Hyung;Kim, Yea Sang
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.15 no.3
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    • pp.23-30
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    • 2014
  • Overseas construction orders of domestic companies had been increased significantly in a short period from $10.9 billion in 2005 to $64.9 billion in 2012. However experts are concerned that quality of growth will not support quantitative growth. This study suggest concentrate competencies for not only winning in bid but also successful execution of domestic companies. 4 Steps which are Pre-Marketing, Bid-Preparation, Bidding, Contract Phase are defined for competency assessment. After drawing specific tasks by phase, survey asking importance and capability of the tasks to the person in charge of bidding and site was conducted by utilizing Likert 7 point scale. According to the result of IPA analysis, domestic construction companies need to ensure internal competencies; Project risk review, Bid team organization, and external competencies; Client needs grasp, Localization strategy, Cooperation establishment. Hearafter domestic construction companies will be able to utilize the result of the study for setting bidding strategy for winning in bid and improving earning rate.

Review of Real Options Analysis for Renewable Energy Projects (실물옵션 기법을 활용한 신재생에너지사업 경제성분석에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Kyeongseok
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.18 no.2
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    • pp.91-98
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    • 2017
  • Due to climate change, countries around the world are actively investing in renewable energy, reducing fossil fuel use. 23.7% of world electricity is supplied by renewable energy. As the technology continues to develop, it is in a level to compete in terms of power generation cost, and investment conditions are improving. However, investment in renewable energy projects is not easy. This study analyzed trends of domestic and international researches on economics assessment applying real options analysis to investment decisions of hydro, solar, and wind power projects, which account for a large portion of renewable energy. This study provides (1) the difference between the traditional economic method and the real options analysis, (2) the application process, and (3) the uncertainty elements and option type of the renewable energy project presented by many studies. The real options analysis is suitable for the detailed investment strategy by considering the uncertainties of the renewable energy project and applying the option to improve the profit or to avoid the risk.

Improvement of the Evaluation Method for VE Alternatives using the Risk Assessment Process (리스크 평가절차 도입을 통한 VE 대안 평가방법 개선)

  • Park, Jin-Ho;Jin, Zheng-xun;Hyun, Chang-taek;Kim, Hyun-joo;Kwon, Suk-hyun
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.19 no.5
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    • pp.32-42
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    • 2018
  • Since the success or failure of VE projects depends on the capabilities of participants, including owners, construction managers, architects, general contractors and VE experts, it is important to follow systematic procedures. However, it is often the case that only a rough evaluation is performed, or the rough and detailed evaluations are integrated in actual VE tasks. In this case, it is difficult to analyze and evaluate the alternatives in terms of risk, even for the important alternatives. This in turn leads to the so-called returning alternatives where the alternatives proposed in the preceding stage are returned to the original plans in the following stage, and thus the repetitive work for the alternatives often decreases the efficiency of the VE task. In this regard, this study proposed a risk assessment process for VE alternatives in order to minimize the occurrence of returning alternatives based on the systematic analysis and evaluation of VE alternatives. It will increase the efficiency of VE tasks by reduces the number of regression alternatives.

An Analysis and Improvement of Free Form Building's Construction Productivity - Focused on Exposed Concrete Work - (비정형 건축물 공사의 생산성 분석 및 향상방안 - 노출콘크리트 공사를 중심으로 -)

  • Lee, Eun-Young;Kim, Yea-Sang
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.15 no.3
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    • pp.38-46
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    • 2014
  • The Global's top five Design Firms selected from BauNetz a German architectural magazine in 2007 designed free form building design which was 25% of the overall design by 2006-2010. Free form building is a landmark of the city and the country so its social and economic impacts are very large. In case of Korea, free form buildings such as Tribowl in Incheon, KINTEX Exhibition hall 2 and Dongdaemun Design Plaza have increased. However, those the increase in design trends and, the needs due to the lack of free form building design and construction management experience, free form building projects can't be expected to profitability and have a number of problems after completion. Especially, there are many excessive quality problems and the rising cost due to design changes frequently and lack of experience and data. Thus an initial plan regardless of considering of free form building's characteristics can be a huge risk because of the difference with the plan and actual projects, yet there aren't free form building project's performance data and case studies related to productivity. In this study, through selection of low-construction productivity works and an analysis of the work process and productivity data, hope to propose an actual field productivity of free form building and the ways to improve productivity.

A Case Study on making inroads into foreign market of Korean Construction Engineering (한국건설엔지니어링의 해외진출사례(미국, 몽골))

  • Choi, Suk;Song, Yong-Wook
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute Of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • 2008.11a
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    • pp.119-128
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    • 2008
  • Recently, because of the economic slump on the national construction market, enterprises are making a ceaseless effort on participating in the competitiveness enforcement, internationalization and globalization. As this firm has found a larger market abroad and took part in great and small services since 2003, successful services are going under construction in USA, Mongolia and Guam. In this case study, looking around the on-going projects, the analysis and solutions of the differences of the counter attitude and matters resulted from politic, economical, social and cultural gaps are proposed. This study is helpful to enterprises which are planning to extend its business abroad and which want to take part in global standards.

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Financial Analysis Model Development by Applying Optimization Method in Residential Officetel (최적화 기법을 활용한 주거용 오피스텔 수지분석 모델 개발)

  • Jang, Jun-Ho;Ha, Sun-Geun;Son, Ki-Young;Son, Seung-Hyun
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Building Construction
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    • v.19 no.1
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    • pp.67-76
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    • 2019
  • The domestic construction industry is changing according to its preference for demand and supply along with urbanization and economic development. Accordingly, initial risk assessments is more important than before. In particular, demand for lease-based investment products such as commercial and office buildings has surged as a substitute for financial products due to low interest rates of banks. Therefore, the objective is to suggest a basic study on financial analysis model development by applying optimization method in residential officetel. To achieve the objective, first, the previous studies are investigated. Second, the causal loop diagram is structured based on the collected data. Third, the system dynamics method is used to develop cost-income simulation and optimization model sequentially. Finally, the developed model was verifed through analyzing a case project. In the future, the proposed model can be helpful whether or not conduct execution of an officetel development project to the decision makers.

A Study on the Construction Cost Risk through Analyzing the Actual Cost of Public Apartment (공공주택 실적공사비 분석을 통한 공사비 리스크에 관한 연구)

  • Yoon, Woo-Sung;Go, Seong-Seok
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.12 no.6
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    • pp.65-78
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    • 2011
  • Construction business, which is complex and long-term business, requires accurate estimation and verification in construction costs and payment procedure from project planning to the completion of construction phase. And more importantly, it is necessary to investigate and determine the risk factors related to construction costs during the entire process including design planning, construction drawings, and quantity calculating. But, currently, it is not seem to be adequate to cope with the risk and increased construction costs against the operational budget in terms of actual costs when screening and estimating the bidding cost of public apartment. Therefore, this study selected and analyzed 40 sites' report of construction completion account from 2004 to 2010 focused on the adequacy on the modification of contract and design planning and on the complication of the budget in the beginning of the project. This study deducted various risk causes and results by analyzing actual costs according to year, architectural area, region, construction cost and sale/lease classification. We could find out construction risk according to annual variation of government policy and economy, and also deducted risk items by construction characteristic according to region and architectural area. Study result, we first found out the problems of lowest price award system according to the construction costs. The weight of the cost increase risk was analyzed that subcontract and material costs are very high. Roof and tile work were analyzed highly in subcontract cost risk and reinforcing bar and cement were analyzed highly in material cost risk, among direct construction cost. Finally, this study results could be used in comparing the categories of the construction costs made by specific construction process, belonging to the construction costs, with the operational budget made in the beginning of the project that can enable to grasp unpredictable risks over the construction costs and making quantitative analysis for it through analyzing the range of fluctuation and variations led by the fluctuations in the actual construction costs.

Identification and Effect Analysis of Risk Factors for Build Transfer Lease Projects (BTL민간투자사업의 리스크 식별 및 영향도 분석에 관한 연구)

  • Jung, Jung-Man;Park, Young-Min;Kim, Soo-Yong
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.8 no.1 s.35
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    • pp.47-56
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    • 2007
  • The Build-Transfer-Lease(BTL) system is a new way of attracting private capital to social infrastructure construction projects. Private companies will get back their investment by leasing facilities to the government. In January 2005, government introduces a 'Korean New Deal Policy' to initiate BTL system in the field of social infrastructure development such as education, public welfare, housing, culture etc. As BTL being still in premature phase, thus it is lack of knowledge in BTL and there is no such studies about problems and impacts of BTL projects. However, there could be so many problems underlying within BTL projects. Therefore, the purpose of this paper is to identify various risk factors during implementation of BTL projects. For this purpose, five BTL undertaking projects were studied. Field survey was conducted based-on interview instruments. Prevailing risk factors in operating the BTL Project were collected from the both officials of project promoters and concessionaires. In addition, a distinct need has emerged for analysis of risk factors for BTL projects. Based on real cases, this study resulted in risk factors influencing every phases and grouped risk factors into each phase. Moreover, this study also perform sensitivity analysis in order to know how risk factors affect to BTL projects. From analyzing the data, the study addresses that both major BTL project participants 'the competent authority' and 'Special purpose company(SPC)' have many problems and difficulties to operate the projects.