• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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• v.28 no.1
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• pp.193-218
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• 2006

This paper examines the macroeconomic structural differences of the free floating exchange rate regime and the managed float exchange rate regime focusing on the Korean economy, and compares it to the two benchmark economies, Japan and Australia. Korea's shift to the free floating exchange rate regime from the managed float exchange rate regime came after the 1997 economic crisis. Korea's exchange rate policy provides a unique opportunity to study the different behaviors or roles, if any, of managed float and free floating exchange rate regimes. Based on a simple monetary model, we find that the exchange rates of Korea are more sensitive to the economic fundamentals under the free floating regime than under the managed float regime. Impulse response analysis shows that exchange rate pass-through into domestic variables, especially inflation rate, has a bigger short-term impact under the floating regime than under the managed regime. This finding is consistent with the view that the managed (or fixed) regime provides the domestic price stability necessary for the economic growth for the developing countries.

• International Commerce and Information Review
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• v.15 no.3
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• pp.245-262
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• 2013

The transaction size between South Korea and the European Union (EU) had increased by more than two times among 2003 to 2008. With rapid growth of transaction, the EU was becoming important transaction object of South Korea gradually. EU has used the Antidumping policy as a trade protection tool against Korean products due to reduce the deficit of trade balance of payment, boost the economic growth and protect its weak industries. This paper investigates whether there is a connection between the EU's macroeconomic activity and pressures for protection to Korean products under antidumping measures with using the current data that come from the WTO, World Bank for 2004 to 2012. The result suggests that pressures for protection under Antidumping measure against exporting of Korean products to EU have increased during periods of macroeconomic weakness of low GDP growth, larger deficit of trade balance, however, has not significantly affected during periods of high unemployment.

• Proceedings of the Safety Management and Science Conference
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• 2010.04a
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• pp.317-328
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• 2010

• Culinary science and hospitality research
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• v.22 no.3
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• pp.212-223
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• 2016

The purpose of this study is to verify information spillover effects using returns of macroeconomic variables and hotel leisure stock index daily data from January 4, 2000 to December 30, 2015. The findings and implications of the research can be summarized as follows. First, based on time-varying AR(1)-GARCH(1,1) models no evidence of statistically significant conditional mean and volatility spillover effects from returns of macroeconomic variables on the hotel leisure stock index was observed. In addition, no evidence of price volatility spillover from macroeconomic variables on the hotel leisure market was observed. Second, it was discovered that there exists a significantly negative relationship between the return of ER and hotel leisure stock prices, but a positive relationship between the KOSPI and hotel leisure stock prices. Finally, the study also found that was a significantly positive relationship between the volatility of DUB and hotel leisure market, and an adversely negative relationship between the volatility of ER and hotel leisure market. The results of this study are expected to contribute by providing useful information for investment strategies, as well as for risk management for investors and managers.

• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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• v.15 no.4
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• pp.3-35
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• 1993

본고(本稿)의 "연간거시모형(年間巨視模型)"은 경제구조(經濟構造)가 비교적 동질적(同質的)이라 할 수 있는 1970년대 이후의 연간자료(年間資料)를 이용하여 주요총량지표(主要總量指標)의 변동을 통합(統合) 단순화(單純化)된 구조식으로 파악함으로써, 거시경제정책(巨視經濟政策) 효과분석(效果分析)과 중(中) 단기(短期) 예측에 적합하도록 개발되었다. 동(同) 모형(模型)은 주요가격변수(主要價格變數)들의 내생화와 GNP갭변수의 도입을 통해 기존모형들의 가격의 내생성(內生性) 경시 및 공급측면(供給側面) 경시적 구조를 보완하고 있으며, 80년대 이후 최근에 이르기까지 우리 경제의 거시경제변동(巨視經濟變動)을 상당히 안정적(安定的)으로 추적하는 것으로 나타났다. "연간거시모형(年間巨視模型)"에 의한 통화(通貨) 금리정책(金利政策) 효과의 분석 결과, 여(與) 수신금리(受信金利)의 인상(引上)은 실질소득(實質所得) 및 물가(物價)의 하락(下落)과 국제수지(國際收支)의 개선(改善)을 가져오는 것으로 나타났으며, 계속충격(繼續衝擊)의 경우 여(與) 수신금리(受信金利) 1%포인트의 인상은 평균 0.277%의 실질소득(實質所得) 감소효과(減少效果)를 갖는 것으로 나타났다. 계속적인 통화량(通貨量) 1%의 증가는 물가(物價)를 누적적(累積的)으로 상승시켜서 4년후에는 상승효과(上昇效果)가 0.249%에 달하게 되는 것으로 나타났다. 동(同) 모형(模型)에서는 여신금리의 인상이 경제안정화(經濟安定化) 효과(效果)를 통해 오히려 실세금리(實勢金利)의 안정(安定)에 기여하는 것으로 나타났다. 재정정책(財政政策)의 정책실험 결과, 정부소비(政府消費)의 증가로 나타나는 재정규모(財政規模) 증대의 경우 재정적자(財政赤字)를 수반하는 경우와 수반하지 않는 경우의 차이가 단적으로 나타났다. 재정규모(財政規模)의 증대(增大)는 두가지 경우 모두에 있어서 물가상승(物價上昇)을 유발하지만 그 실제적(實際的) 크기는 재정적자(財政赤字)를 수반하는 경우 훨씬 크게 나타났다. 재정규모(財政規模)의 증가(增加)가 일시적일 경우, 두가지 경우 모두에 있어 물가에 대한 정(正)의 효과(效果)는 지속적인 반면 실질소득(實質所得)에 대한 효과(效果)는 일시적인 것으로 나타났다.

• The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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• v.13 no.1
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• pp.417-424
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• 2013

The purpose of this study is to find out the effect of macroeconomic variables on the hotel profitability and suggest the reasonable way to handle them. To achieve this purpose, seven macroeconomic variables were used as an independent variable. These were the index of industrial production, West Texas Intermediate, the consumer price index, the unemployment rate, the money supply, the trade balance and the exchange rate. And ROA and ROE of total hotels were used as a dependant variable respectively. As the result of regression, it was found that the index of industrial production and the exchange rate had a significant and positive effect on ROA. And West Texas Intermediate, the consumer price index and the unemployment rate had a significant and negative effect on ROA. Also the consumer price index and the unemployment rate had a significant and negative effect on ROE and the exchange rate had a significant and positive effect on ROE. Through the analysis two key variables were found to be very important ones. These were the unemployment rate and the exchange rate. So the hotel managers need to emphasize on the good price of domestic hotel products and supply the various productions and services to the guests when the exchange rate is increased. But when the unemployment rate is increased, the hotel managers should consider to supply the middle price products with the hight price products.

• Proceedings of the Safety Management and Science Conference
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• 2009.04a
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• pp.105-108
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• 2009

기존의 연구논문들에서는 1975년부터 1992년 사이의 OECD 국가들에서 집권정부별 국민들이 느끼는 행복감을 알아보기 위한 분석들이 주로 이루어졌다. 이러한 행복감을 알아보는 데에는 특히 인플레이션율과 실업률이 주요 변수로 활용되고 있다. 각국별로 살펴볼 때, 진보정부의 경우에 있어서는 실업률에 더 주안점을 두는 반면에 보수정부는 인플레이션율에 더 민감하게 대처함을 알 수 있었다. 이러한 점들을 살펴보면, OECD 국가들에서 빈곤층은 진보정부를 선호하고 상대적으로 소득수준에서 상위계층은 보수정부를 선호할 것으로 추정된다. 이 논문에서는 한국의 경우 시계열 관계상 진 보정부와 보수정부로 나누지 않고 행복감에 대하여 소비자심리지수를 대용변수로 사 용하였을 경우 경기회복에 따른 산업생산 증가와 이를 위한 정부지출이 중요한 변수 임을 알 수 있었다.

• Land and Housing Review
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• v.12 no.4
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• pp.41-59
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• 2021

This study reviews theoretical considerations and past studies about real estate prices, macroeconomic variables, and real estate policies. Monthly data from January 2003 to June 2021 are used, and a VEC model, the most widely used multivariate time series analysis method, is employed for analysis. Through the model, the effects of macroeconomic variables and real estate regulatory policies on real estate prices in Seoul are analyzed. Findings are summarized as follows. First, macroeconomic variables such as money supply and interest rates do not have a significant impact on Seoul's apartment prices. Due to the high demand for housing and insufficient supply, there is a demand for buying a home regardless of macroeconomic booms or recessions. Second, tax and financial regulatory policies have an initial impact on the rise in apartment prices in Seoul, and their influence diminishes over time. Third, anti-speculation zones are expected to decrease apartment prices through the suppression of demand. However, these zones cause a rise in apartment prices. This could be understood as a lock-in effect due to the strengthening of capital gains tax. Fourth, the price ceiling did not decrease apartment prices. These findings propose that, in Seoul, where demand is high and supply is insufficient, the supply of high-quality and sufficient housing should be prioritized over various regulations such as tax regulations, financial regulations, anti-speculation zones, and price caps. Moreover, the findings provide an implication that city-specific real estate policies should be implemented for Seoul rather than regulation-oriented approaches in public policy.

• Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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• v.8 no.2
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• pp.207-225
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• 1999

최근의 경제위기가 진행되는 과정에서 국제원유가가 급속하게 하락하고 있다. 거시경제적으로 볼 때 원유가의 하락은 생산측면에서 요소가격의 하락, 수요측면에서는 상대가격의 변동이라는 상호작용을 유도하게 된다. 본 연구는 연산일반균형모형(computable general equilibrium : CGE)을 구축하고 외생변수의 영향에 대한 모의실험을 하여 거시경제적인 측면에서 정량적인 효과를 측정하는데 목적이 있다. 신고전학파적인 이론에 기초한 CGE모형을 설정하고 국제원유가가 32.8% 하락한 외생적인 충격에 대하여 모의실험한 결과는 다음과 같다. 원유가 하락은 GDP성장률을 약 l.59% 상승시키고 물가가 l.2% 하락하는 거시경제적 측면에서 긍정적인 효과를 가져오는 것으로 계산된다. 또한 에너지 수입이 전체 무역에서 큰 비중을 차지하고 있기 때문에 국제수지의 측면에서도 약 47억 달러 개선효과를 가지는 것으로 나타난다. 상대가격의 변동은 산업별로 다른 효과를 가지는데 에너지를 집약적으로 투입하는 산업을 중심으로 산업별 생산량과 가격에서 상이한 효과를 보이는 것으로 나타났다.

• Management & Information Systems Review
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• v.34 no.4
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• pp.67-81
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• 2015

The purpose of this study was to evaluate the effect of this factor on the macroeconomic variables for the healthcare industry market. First, the government bond interest rates and the exchange rate is the cause variable of drug industry index. Drug industry index is a mutual influence between the Call interest rate. Second, the medical equipment index haver mutual cause variable such as call rate index, government bond interest rates, and exchange rate. A current account balance variable is the cause variable of drug industry index. Third, the drug industry index has a negative relationship with a Call interest rate and an exchange rate. but it has a positive relationship with a government bond interest rates. the medical equipment index has a negative relationship with an exchange rate. but it has a positive relationship with a government bond interest rates.