• International Area Studies Review
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• v.20 no.1
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• pp.105-125
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• 2016

The expansionary monetary policy was practiced after 2001 in Japan to treat the deflation spiral, and reduced only the nominal interest rates and domestic household demand. One of the most serious factors for this failure was the change of private sector's expectancy. This paper has studied the effect of Japanese monetary policy in 21c., with empirical research based on a renewed macroeconomic model and the VAR. The empirical analysis shows that the effect of monetary policy on the national income during 2001.01-2015.03 is weaker than that of 1985.01-1994.04. Money volume has a diminutive effect on the growth of GDP within a short term after 2001. The change in the expectations of the private sectors might have been the cause of ineffectiveness of the expansive monetary policy. Economic agents learned from the past Japanese financial crisis that an expansive monetary policy increased the inflation rate and caused the 'bubbles to burst' afterwards. The VAR analysis says that the effectiveness of monetary policy on the economic depression declined over the past 20 years and the expansion of money volume has no influence on exchange rate and net export. This means that the expansive monetary policy lost its effect on net export and national income steadily. Monetary policy makers have to recognize this fact, and to consider another anti-cycle political instrument, i.e. the fiscal policy with government debt.

• Economic Analysis
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• v.25 no.2
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• pp.1-53
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• 2019

This paper examines monetary policy quantitatively in a two-agent and small-scale New-Keynesian economy with debt-constrained households that cannot smooth their consumption intertemporally and frictionlessly since highly indebted households are not allowed to borrow above a certain debt ceiling in incomplete financial markets without additional risk premiums due to information asymmetry between savers and borrowers. We find that, in the event of cost shocks, the asymmetric responses of borrowing households without, and saving households with, dividend incomes lead to different labor supplies and consumptions over heterogeneous households, and eventually to an extension of the monetary policy transmission channels. The income effect and low elasticity of the labor supply play key roles in such asymmetric responses over heterogeneous households. We also find that the social welfare in a flexible inflation targeting (FIT) monetary policy, in which both the inflation gap and the output gap are considered in an integrated manner when policy-making, is similar to that of the Ramsey optimal monetary policy (ROP), in which the shares of debt-constrained households, as well as all economic states, including both the inflation gap and output gap, are considered comprehensively for policy-making, and that it is greater than that of simple inflation targeting (SIT) monetary policy, in which only the inflation gap is considered mechanically for policy-making. Such social welfare implies that a FIT policy may still work even in an economy with a sizable number of debt-constrained households. Further, the responses of cost shocks to consumption and labor supply are dying out more slowly under FIT and ROP policies than under an SIT policy.

• Electronics and Telecommunications Trends
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• v.5 no.2
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• pp.14-38
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• 1990

이 연구는 '80년대 이후 많은 변화를 보이고 있는 정보통신 산업분야의 추세를 거시적으로 분석하기 위하여 '80년 이후 발표된 산업연관표(1980년, 1983년, 1985년)를 이용해 정보통신 산업이 국민경제에서 차지하는 역할과 타산업에 미치는 효과를 실증적으로 검증하였다. 분석결과 우리나라의 산업구조는 매년 고도화 되고 있으며, 특히 1차산업이 줄어듬과 동시에 3차산업과 정보통신산업의 비중이 증가하는 선진국형의 산업구조로 변화되고 있다. 1985년 현재 정보통신산업이 차지하는 비중은 4.54%로서 산출액은 8조6,468억을 기록하고 있지만, 성장율로 보면 정보통신서비스업은 1983년 대비 34.83%, 정보기기산업은 40.43%로 전체성장율을 훨씬 앞지르는 성장을 보였다. 그리고 국내 생산활동에 의하여 창출된 부가가치도 대폭 증가하였는데 부가가치비율은 1985년 전산업 평균이 41.35%이지만 정보통신서비스업은 60.71%로서 다른 어느 산업보다도 고부가가치산업임을 보여주고 있으며, 우리나라의 산업구조개선과 정보화 사회로 옮겨가는데 커다란 견인차 역할을 하고 있음을 나타내 주고 있다.

• Journal of Korea Technology Innovation Society
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• v.19 no.1
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• pp.80-104
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• 2016

Existing methodologies of technology planning about promising new technology focused on target technology itself, so it is true that socio-environmental context which the relevant technology has influence on is not well understood. In this respect, this study is aimed to questingly examine that news content analysis methodologies widely available in the field of science communication can be applied as a complementary methodology for contextual understanding of socio-environment in terms of technology planning about promising new technology. In the co-evolutionary environment of technology-society, promising new technology shows hype phenomenon regarding the relation with the society. Based on this, this study performed news content analysis and examined if the consequences of analysis would match hype cycle. It tried to explore substantive content understanding by socio-environment factors according to specific news frame content. To do this, new content analysis was performed targeting cloud computing as a representative promising new technology. The result of news content analysis targeting general newspapers, business news, IT special newspapers revealed that the tendency of news reporting matched the trend of hype cycle. Particularly, it was verified that reporting attitude and news frame analysis provided useful information to understand contextual content depending on social, economic, and cultural environment factors about promising new technology. The results of this study implied that news content analysis could overcome the limitation of technology information analysis focusing on academic journal patent usually applied for technology planning and could be used as a complementary methodology for understanding the context depending on macro-environment factors. In conclusion, application of news content analysis on the phase of macro-environment analysis of technology planning could contribute to the securement of mutually balanced view in the co-evolutionary perspective of technology-society.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.37 no.1
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• pp.13-38
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• 2024

As economic uncertainties have increased recently due to COVID-19, there is a growing need to quickly grasp private consumption trends that directly reflect the economic situation of private economic entities. This study proposes a method of estimating private consumption in real-time by comprehensively utilizing big data as well as existing macroeconomic indicators. In particular, it is intended to improve the accuracy of private consumption estimation by comparing and analyzing various machine learning methods that are capable of fitting ultra-high-dimensional big data. As a result of the empirical analysis, it has been demonstrated that when the number of covariates including big data is large, variables can be selected in advance and used for model fit to improve private consumption prediction performance. In addition, as the inclusion of big data greatly improves the predictive performance of private consumption after COVID-19, the benefit of big data that reflects new information in a timely manner has been shown to increase when economic uncertainty is high.

• Proceedings of the Safety Management and Science Conference
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• 2008.04a
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• pp.315-331
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• 2008

미국 센서스 뷰로 데이터에 의하여 2차대전 후 민주당정부와 공화당정부의 실질 세전 소득증가율의 차이를 살펴볼 때 민주당정부 기간동안에 계층간의 소득불균형이 시정되면서 저소득계층의 소득증가율이 상대적으로 더 높았음을 알 수 있다. 반면에 공화당정부 기간동안에는 소득불균형이 심화되면서 저소득계층보다 고소득계층의 소득증가율이 더 높았다. 소득계층에서 하위 20%의 계층은 공화당정부의 기간동안에 비하여 민주당정부의 기간에 4배의 높은 소득증가율을 가졌다. 이는 양 정부별 실업률 차이에서 비롯되는 데 민주당정부의 기간 동안에 평균 30% 낮았으며 GDP성장률은 평균 30% 높았음에도 영향을 받은 것으로 판단된다. 이러한 정부별 차이는 1980년대 이후 세후 소득증가율에서도 나타나고 있다. 한편, 실증분석 결과에 따르면 한국의 경우 미국에서와 같이 저소득계층이 고소득계층 보다 거시경제정책에 따른 영향을 더 많이 받고 있음을 알 수 있었으며, 특히 신정부에서는 이전보다 적극적인 통화정책을 적절한 타이밍(timing)으로 실시하여야 할 필요성이 나타났다.

• Proceedings of the Korea Technology Innovation Society Conference
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• 2017.11a
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• pp.875-892
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• 2017

본 연구에서는 4차 산업혁명에 대한 선제적 대응 및 2050년 환경변화 대응 이슈 도출, 미래사회 지질자원분야 역할 재조명을 위해 2050 미래상 및 지질자원 기술의 위치와 역할에 대한 연구를 실시하였다. 거시환경 분석을 위해 사회, 기술, 경제, 환경, 정치 부문(STEEP)을 분석하였다. 미래사회 변화 및 트렌드를 분석하여 지질자원 분야와 관련이 되는 주요 이슈를 4차 산업혁명, 우주 지구, 에너지, 광물자원 재료, 기후환경, 지질환경, 삶의 터전으로 제시하였다. 지질자원 분야 키워드와 미래 이슈 연관 분석, 미래사회 해결 이슈(기술 수요) 구체화, 요구하는 서비스 속성 도출, 지질자원 분야 서비스/제품을 구성하여 지속가능 풍부한 자원 미래 실현의 4개 미래기술, 예측(조정)되는 자연환경 관리의 3개 미래기술, 제한 없이 확대된 삶의 터전 구축의 3개 미래기술을 제시하였다.

• Journal of the Economic Geographical Society of Korea
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• v.16 no.2
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• pp.182-197
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• 2013

This paper deals with the relationship between cultural factor and economic factor in the spread of Hallyu(Korean Wave). To do so, the paper defines the traditional Hallyu items, drama and K-Pop, as 'cultural Hallyu' and other Popular industrial products such as electronics and mobile products as 'business Hallyu'. Based on this definition, the paper analyzes the relationship between the two Hallyu's in Thailand. The analysis has been conducted as follows. First, the paper describes the history of 'cultural Hallyu' and 'business Hallyu' in Thailand by reviewing their introduction and current situations in Thailand market. Secondly, using various aggregate data, the paper analyzes the causality of the two Hallyu's, focusing on the period of their Popularity and growth in Thailand. In addition to the macro-level analysis, the paper researched individual opinions of Thai people about the influence of Hallyu on the success of Korean companies, as well as about the influence of the Korean business companies on the success of Hallyu. This analysis has been conducted using the results of focus group discussion(FGD) of 17 Bangkok people. In both macro and individual level analyses, we found that the 'cultrual Hallyu' has influenced on the success of the 'business Hallyu' rather than vice versa. For further research, it is necessary to analyze the reciprocal influences and synergy effects between the 'cultural Hallyu' and 'business Hallyu'.

• Journal of Digital Convergence
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• v.19 no.11
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• pp.255-266
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• 2021

Investment demand for factory facilities has increased due to the balloon effect caused by housing price regulation. This study investigated the impact of the real estate market and macroeconomic factors on the bid price ratio of apartment auctions and factory auctions, focusing on the metropolitan area. To this end, we reviewed theories and previous studies on real estate auctions, and examined how macroeconomic variables affect bid price ratio of apartments and factories using the panel vector autoregressive model. It was found that the increase in the apartment bid price ratio increases as the participation in apartment auctions increases. However, as the factory bid price ratio increases, the factory bid price ratio does not increase, it was confirmed that the positive (+) relationship between the successful bid price ratio and the bid price ratioe does not exist, unlike previous studies. Based on the analysis results, it is suggested that the real estate market and macroeconomic factors should be considered for the stable operation of the related relevant auction system. This study has limitations in that it is limited to the metropolitan area. In the future, research that expands the scope of research to the whole country and provinces should be conducted.

• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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• v.34 no.4
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• pp.181-190
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• 2018

The goal of this study is empirically to investigate the asymmetric relationship between two variables using the dry cargo freight rates and raw material price data from January 2012 to May 2018. First, we estimate the asymmetry of macroeconomic indicators of commodity prices by using a two - step threshold cointegration test. Second, the asymmetric relation test of the trade balance of existing commodity price changes is tested by bypassing to the high frequency dry cargo freight rate index. As a result of the estimation, in contrast to the existing linear analysis, each boundary value for the lower limit and the upper limit has different asymmetry. This implies that the period of fluctuation of the sudden residual that causes irregular rate of return fluctuations does not establish a long term equilibrium relationship between the raw material price and the dry cargo freight rate. Therefore, in order to consider the sudden price change in the analysis, it is necessary to include the band of inaction that controls the irregular volatility, which is consistent with the asymmetry hypothesis.