• Title/Summary/Keyword: 가법모형

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The Economic Assessment of Claims for Oil Pollution Damages : The Canadian Experience (유류해양오염으로 인한 환경피해에 대한 경제적 가치평가: 캐나다의 유류해양오염에 대한 사례연구)

  • Jung, Hyung-Chan
    • The Journal of Fisheries Business Administration
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    • v.34 no.1
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    • pp.157-183
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    • 2003
  • 유류오염 사고를 사전에 예방할 수 있는 정책 수단으로는 여러 가지가 있지만 주요한 것으로는 인센티브제의 활용을 들 수 있다. 유류오염 사고를 예방하고 관리하기 위한 인센티브는 유출 사고로 인해 발생한 해양자원의 피해에 대해 가해자에게 배상책임(liability for losses due to spills)을 부과함으로써 제공될 수 있다. 유류오염 사고로 인한 피해액을 실제 화폐단위로 계량화하는 작업은 배상책임 부과제도를 정책수단으로 활용하기 위해 해결해야 할 가장 어려운 과제이다. 따라서, 최근 미국과 캐나다를 중심으로 발전하고 있는 자연자원 피해에 대한 가치 평가법(Natural Resource Damage Assessment : NRDA)은 배상책임 부과제도를 정책적으로 보완할 수 있는 이론적 도구로 간주되고 있다. NRDA는 잠재적인 가해자들에게 그들이 자연환경을 보존해야 하는 사회적 의무를 이행하지 못하고 이를 훼손하게 될 때 이로 인해 발생하는 모든 사회적 비용을 직접 부담해야 한다는 명확한 재무적 인센티브(financial incentive)를 부여함으로써 가해자 보상 원칙 (polluter pays principle)을 실현 할 수 있게 한다. 본 연구는, 유류오염 사고로 인한 환경자원 피해의 경제적 가치를 추정하는 가장 중요한 이론적 모형으로 활용되고 있는 가상상황평가법(CVM)에 대한 기초 개념과 이론적 체계, 그리고 이를 실제 피해액 추정에 성공적으로 적용시키기 위해 해결해야 할 문제점 등을 다루었다. 이를 위해, 본 연구에서는 1988년 캐나다 북서부 연안에서 발생한 Nestucca 유류오염 사고를 사례연구의 대상으로 선정하고, 사고 당시 캐나다 연방정부와 British Columbia 주정부를 대신하여 해양오염에 의한 환경피해의 경제적 가치를 추정한 미국의 컨설팅 회사인 RCG/Hagler, Baily Inc.의 가상상황평가법(CVM) 적용 사례를 분석 검토하였다. Nestucca 사례연구에서는 이들 연구자들이 실제로 활용한 설문지 설계, 설문방법 및 표본설계 등을 분석하였으며, 또한 CVM이 본질적으로 갖고 있는 방법론적 문제점들을 연구자들이 어떻게 해결하려고 했는가를 고찰하였다. 그리고, WTP 추정을 위해 RCG 연구자들이 사용한 사전규제접근법(ex ante regulatory approach)으로 인해 야기될 수 있는 환경자원 피해액 추정 방법의 한계점도 함께 검토하였다. 캐나다 연방정부와 British Columbia 주정부는 Nestucca 유류오염 사고로 인한 자연 자원 피해에 대한 손해배상으로 $4.3 Million의 보상금을 지급 받게 된다. 캐나다 정부는 이 보상금으로 Nestucca Oil Spill Trust Fund를 설립하여 피해를 입은 자연자원의 원상회복(restoration)을 위한 다양한 연구 프로젝트에 자금을 지원하고 있다. Nestucca 유류오염 사고를 계기로 캐나다 정부와 학계는 해양자원의 피해에 대한 경제적 가치평가와 자원의 원상회복에 대한 체계적인 접근 방안을 처음으로 마련 시행하게 되었다는 점에서, Nestucca 유류오염 사고에 대한 사례연구는 캐나다의 해양환경 보존 정책을 연구하는 출발점으로 평가될 수 있을 것이다. 이에 비해, 우리나라에서 대표적인 유류오염사고로 알려져 있는 시프린스호 사고와 관련된 손해배상금은 주로 연안어민들의 어업피해 배상으로 이루어져 있으며, 간접피해에 대한 배상액 48억 5천만원도 대부분 치어방류, 여수대학교 종묘배양장건립 등 피해지역 연안어업 발전을 위한 사업에 투자되었다.

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Economic Valuation of Urban Riverine Restoration and A Test of Social Desirability Bias (도심하천복원 경제가치 추정에서 사회규범편의 검정)

  • Choi, Andy S.;Sung, Chan Yong;Baek, Hyojin
    • Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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    • v.28 no.4
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    • pp.645-673
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    • 2019
  • The hypothetical nature of stated preferences can lead to a hypothetical bias that might work as a normative pressure, influencing survey responses. This paper aims to test the impact of social desirability bias by comparing economic estimates based on both subjective and objective valuation questions. The case study is about an urban riverine restoration project in Deajeon, South Korea. As valuation methods both contingent valuation and choice experiments were comparatively applied. Based on a nationally representative sample of 1,000 respondents, the test results offered contrasting conclusions between two test approaches. Accroding to the estimation results based on the conventional valuation, the marginal willingness to pay estimates are 10,500 KRW from CV; and 18,600 KRW for improving water quality, 2,200 KRW for the inside view, 8,900 KRW for the outside view, and 5,800 KRW for biodiversity from CE. A segmentation-based approach is a conventionally used method, which showed a limited impact of social desirability on willingness to pay estimates. The alternative parameterization-based approach measures a model-wide impact of social desirability, proving a significant bias. Although the study positioned a cheap-talk statement before the valuation section of the survey questionnaires, which might have pre-screened the bias, the overall implications of the results suggest a caution in reducing and observing hypothetical bias. There might remain a significant and substantial hypothetical bias even after cheap-talk, particularly in situations with strong social desirability, so that the potential role of objective valuation questions is guaranteed.

A Study on the Economic Valuation of the Suncheon Bay Wetland according to the Logit Model (로짓모형에 따른 순천만습지의 경제적 가치평가)

  • Lee, Jeong;Kim, Sa-rang;Kweon, Dae-gon;Jung, Bom-bi;Song, Sung-hwan;Kim, Sun-hwa
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Landscape Architecture
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    • v.45 no.6
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    • pp.10-27
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    • 2017
  • Recently, the importance of recognizing the natural environment and the need for its conservation are increasing due to rapid urbanization. Suncheon Bay, designated as Scenic Site No. 41 and one of the World's Five Greatest Coastal Wetlands, is the only tideland among the tidal flats in Korea, which has salt marsh reserves. It has high conservation value from the ecological aspect. In addition to the Suncheon Bay National Garden, it provides various benefits not only to visitors but to local residents as well in terms of economics, environmental issues, and history and cultural aspects. Two million tourists visit the site annually, which has constantly highlighted the limits of ecological capacity. The valuation of the Suncheon Bay wetland is more important for the sustainability of the Suncheon Bay wetland than for its value as a tourism resource for the activation of the local economy. This study used the Logit model, which is commonly used among probabilistic choice models, to evaluate the economic value of Suncheon Bay wetland with the contingent valuation method(CVM). Applying the conservation value of the Suncheon Bay wetland to the benefit of KRW 8,200 for 1 person and 1 day, the benefit from exploration is KRW 2,050, the management and conservation value is KRW 3,034, and the heritage value is KRW 3,116. The results of this study are that benefit from the annual exploration of Suncheon Bay wetland was KRW 44.3 in billion, the management and conservation value was KRW 6.55 in billion, and the heritage value was KRW 6.73 in billion. When converted to the number of paying visitors per year, the conservation value is about KRW 177.1 billion. This study was conducted to evaluate the use and conservation aspects of the economic value of Suncheon Bay wetland. Based on the latent value of the Suncheon Bay wetland, it provides basic data about the efficient management and policy establishment of Suncheon Bay wetland. The study is significant in that the ecological sustainability of the Suncheon bay wetland and the value of non-marketable were evaluated based on the recognition of 'benefit through exploration', 'management and conservation value' and 'value of heritage'. It can be used as policy decision data on the integrated collection of the admission fee of the Suncheon Bay wetland and Suncheon Bay National Garden.

Estimation of the Biodiversity Conservation Value about the Heory Stock in Sun-Cheon (순천 히어리 군락지역의 생물다양성 보전가치 추정)

  • Yeo, Jun Ho;Jang, Woo Whan
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.96 no.4
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    • pp.483-493
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    • 2007
  • The purpose of this study is to estimate the biodiversity conservation value of Heory stock in Sun-Cheon. Expected values of residents' Willingness To Pay (WTP) was estimated using Contingent Valuation Method (CVM) which is the most popular method in estimating conservation values of biological diversities. Three different estimation methods were used in statistical estimation, and the results were different from each other. Results of statistical analysis show that the expected value of WTP in logit model is highest, 5,772 Won per month. Those of A model which conducted OLS estimation using open ended questionnaire and B-1 model which conducted OLS estimation using dichotomous choice questionnaire were 1,978 Won per month and 2,391 Won per month respectively. The average expected value of WTP from three model was 3,380. This average value was expected to reduce methodological biases.

Estimating Willingness to Pay for Local Festival and Place Attachment in the COVID-19 era: A Case Study of Daegu Chimac Festival (코로나 시대의 장소 애착에 따른 지역 축제 입장료 지불 의사 평가 - 대구 치맥페스티벌을 중심으로 -)

  • Kim, Ju-ho;Kwon, Hyeog-in
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.21 no.7
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    • pp.181-193
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    • 2021
  • Due to the spread of COVID-19, the domestic market was inevitable to face the crisis of tourism industry. Accordingly, most of local festivals decided to cancel or postpone, and have been in difficult situation. In addition, people also have experienced the thrist of cultural activities and tours. However, this situation can also be opportunity to find the clues for activating local festivals in the post-COVID-19 era with estimating the preservation value and deriving the determinants for it. Therefore, this study economically assessed the value of the local festival, Chimac Festival in Daegu, under the hypothetical financial crisis situation for COVID-19. Consequently, monthly income, age and place dependence was found to be influential for Daegu and nearby area citizens to have willingness to pay for the Chimac Festival in Daegu. The result shows that respondents are willing to pay 16,909 on truncated average. Thus, total value of Chimac Festival was estimated as 9.376 billion won.

A Technique of Forecasting Market Share of Transportation Modes after Introducing New Lines of Urban Rail Transit with Observed Mode Share Data (관측 교통수단 분담률 자료를 활용한 도시철도 신설 후 수단분담률 예측분석 기법)

  • Seo, Dong-Jeong;Kim, Ik-Ki;Lee, Tae-Hoon
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.30 no.1
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    • pp.7-18
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    • 2012
  • This study suggested a method of forecasting market-share of each mode after introducing new urban rail transit lines. The study reflected the observed market share of presently operating urban rail transit into forecasting process in order to improve accuracy in predicting market share of each modes. For more realistic representation of the forecasting model, we categorized O/D pairs according to attributes of trip distance, access time and number of transfers. The analysis results of traveler's mode choice behavior with observed data showed that the trip distances are longer, the share of urban rail tends to be higher, and that the number of transfers is fewer and the access times are lesser, the share of urban rail also tends to be higher. Then, incremental logit model was used in estimating mode choice probabilities for O/D pairs along with rail transit lines while utilizing observed market shares of each modes and differences in transit service level. As the next step, the market share of rail transit after introducing new rail transit lines was forecasted by using incremental logit model with the intial share values calculated the previous analysis step. It also reflected changes in level of service for automobile in highway due to changes in highway systems and changes in mode shares after introducing new lines of rail transit. It can be expected that the proposed method would more realistically duplicates phenomena of mode choice behavior for rail transit and that it would be more theoretically logical than the typical existing methods using SP data and incremental logit model or using addictive logit model in this country.

Meteorological Factors Associated with the Number of Emergency Room Patients with Wrist-Cutting Behavior (손목자해로 응급실에 내원한 환자수와 기후인자와의 관련성)

  • Han, Jae Hyun;Suh, Seung Wan;Cho, Gyu Chong;Kim, Jung Mi;Seo, Hong Taek;Jung, Yu Jin;Seong, Su Jeong;Hwang, Jae Yeon;Lee, Won Joon
    • Korean Journal of Psychosomatic Medicine
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    • v.28 no.2
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    • pp.161-167
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    • 2020
  • Objectives : Although the seasonality of suicide is a well-known phenomenon, little is reported about the seasonality of non-suicidal self-injury. The purpose of this study was to identify the seasonality of wristcutting behavior and to examine its relationship with meteorological factors. Methods : To identify the presence of seasonality, we investigated whether there was a difference in the average number of visits per month to an emergency room (ER) of an urban hospital for 226 patients with wrist-cutting behavior enrolled between December 2014 and May 2019. To ascertain significant meteorological factors, we used the multiple Poisson regression using generalized additive model with time, monthly temperature, monthly sunshine hour, and atmospheric pressure in the prior month as explanatory variables. Results : In males, the average number of monthly visits to the ER for wrist cutting behavior differed by month and was the highest in September (male : p=0.048, female : p=0.21, total : p=0.28). As a result of multiple regression analysis, the average number of patients admitted to the ER for wrist cutting behavior was related to the interaction between atmospheric pressure in the prior month and temperature in males (p=0.010), and showed a positive correlation with sunlight in females [p=0.044, β=4.70×10-3, 95% CI=(1.19×10-4, 9.27×10-3)]. Conclusions : Wrist cutting behavior shows seasonality in male, which is associated with changes in meteorological variables.

The Interpretation of Different Recreation Benefits According to Time Horizon in the Contingent Valuation Method (가상가치평가법(假想價値評價法)에서 시간범위(時間範圍)에 따른 휴양가치(休養價値)의 차이(差異) 해석(解析))

  • Kim, Joon-Soon
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.88 no.1
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    • pp.117-123
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    • 1999
  • Consumer surplus is to be a value concerning a time horizon. Especially it is very important how long time horizon would be chosen in contingent market. This study aimed to provide causes of difference recreation benefits through discount rate in many aspects. The data were collected by personal interviews with visitors in Songnisan National Park. The respondents answered yes or no, dichotomous choice, on recreation benefits according to a chosen time horizon, one year or five years. The probit model was used in the analysis. In order to avoid the truncation bias of upper bound, the median was chosen as the recreation benefits of visitor. As the result, the value was evaluated to be 16,569 Won for one year and 27,111 Won for five years. The discount rate is estimated 153% annually to coincide different recreation benefits. The reasons of the high discount rate were to be interpreted as following five types : (1)uncertainty of future consumption (2)increasing of probability of the substitution owing to increasing of time horizon (3)recognization of different time horizons (4) effect by the price ratio of goods and utility function (5) overestimation of the recreation benefits owing to a basic premium of payment vehicle.

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Measuring the Non-market Value of the Introduction of Electric Vehicles to National Parks Against Climate Change (기후변화의 대응수단으로서 국립공원 내 전기자동차 도입의 비시장적 가치 추정에 관한 탐색적 연구)

  • Kim, Sang-Tae;Min, Woong-Ki;Kim, Nam-Jo
    • Review of Culture and Economy
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    • v.17 no.2
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    • pp.81-102
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    • 2014
  • As carbon dioxide, the main greenhouse gas, is generally emitted by vehicles, the development and distribution of electric cars is important for the sustainability of environmentally-friendly tourism, especially in national parks. National parks in Korea, however, still see the use of traditional vehicles powered by internal combustion engines in the handling of visitors and the transportation of goods and staff. Such engines being the cause of environmental problems such as exhaust emission and noise pollution, the introduction of electric cars in national parks is needed. This study aims to analyze the economic value of electric cars in national parks as well as contribute to the development of the Green Transportation model in tourism destinations. The study used a logit model to estimate the willingness to pay for the introduction of electric cars in national parks. Adults over the age of twenty, with gender and age apportioned equally, were surveyed using questionnaires that included dichotomous as well as demographic questions. The findings show that the amount an individual is willing to pay for the purpose of environmental conservation is 3,948 won, while the value the national parks would derive from the use of electric cars is 56,138,130,000 won. The introduction of electric cars in national parks is expected to offer both direct and indirect benefits while helping to improving the environment of the national parks by eliminating exhaust emission and noise. This introduction would also be a response to climate change that can be taken by society as a whole.

Study of Value Estimation of Environmental Education of Gyeongnam Forest Museum using CVM (CVM을 이용한 경상남도산림박물관의 환경교육 가치추정 연구)

  • Kang, Kee-Rae;Ha, Sung-Gyone;Kim, Hee-Chae;Lim, Yeon-Jin;Kim, Dong-Pil;Park, Chang-Kun
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.105 no.1
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    • pp.149-156
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    • 2016
  • Forest museums can be defined as facilities for the collection, exhibition, and education of the forest or forest related artifacts or data. This study was performed to measure the educational value of Gyeongnam state forest museum's forest and its environment. The tool used was the Contingent Valuation Methods (CVM) which is well known as a value estimation tool of environmental goods. The study for the value estimation is performed from April, 2014 to October of the same year through selection of the subject, decision of proposed price, and orientation of the survey staffs and total of 386 surveys were used in analysis. The value estimation tool used the DBDC logit model and the input parameters were number of visit (time), degree of environmental education (contri), the environment conservation effort of the respondent (execu), the education level of the respondent (edu), and income of the respondent (inc) and trimmed mean (WTPtruncated) was used. The estimated value of flora and environment education per each person per visit is 23,338 won. When applied to the average annual visitors deducted from 2010 to 2014, which is 430,000 per year, the environmental value that Gyeongnam state forest museum is providing to visitors each year is about 10 billion won. The result of this study is significant to propose the value of forest education and environment that the forest museum is offering to the visitors in the current currency. This is an evidence to directly determine the value of the forest museum and therefore proposing an opportunity change the recognition toward the forest and environment education.