• Journal of the Korean Geographical Society
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• v.46 no.2
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• pp.212-232
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• 2011

The main objective of this study is to establish a population projection method based on the biregional cohort-component method and to apply it to population projections for Busan. Some drawbacks of using the net migration cohort-component method in a regional or local level population projection are demonstrated. A biregional cohort-component method, a variant of the interregional cohort-component method, is established as an alternative where in-migration and out-migration are separately considered and then are combined to produce a projection for the migration component. Predicated on the established method, population projections for Busan are undertaken for the period of 2005~2030 under three different scenarios. Considerably different projection results are obtained between the net migration and biregional methods; among others, the trend of population decline is more severe in the former than in the latter. An investigation of the temporal trend of the projected population shows that the proposed method is highly reasonable. In conclusion, the proposed method based on the biregional cohort-component method seems not only to be theoretically more robust than the net migration cohort-component method but also to be very effective in the real world application.

• Journal of the Korean Geographical Society
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• v.42 no.4
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• pp.469-487
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• 2007

Grain-Size Trend Analysis is the methodology to identify net sediment transport pathways, based on the assumption that the movement of sediment from the source to deposit leaves the identifiable spatial pattern of mean, sorting, and skewness of grain size. It can easily be implemented with low cost, so it has great potentials to contribute to geomorphological research, whereas it can also be used inadequately without recognition of its limitations. This research aims to compare three established methods of grain-size trend analysis to search for the adequate way of application, and also suggest the research tasks needed in improving this methodology 1D pathway method can corporate the field experience into analyzing the pathway, provide the useful information of depositional environments through X-distribution, and identify the long-term trend effectively. However, it has disadvantage of the dependence on subjective interpretation, and a relatively coarse temporal scale. Gao-Collins's 2D transport vector method has the objective procedure, has the capability to visualize the transport pattern in 2D format, and to identify the pattern at a finer temporal scale, whereas characteristic distance and semiquantitative filtering are controversial. Le Roux's alternative 2D transport vector method has two improvement of Gao-Collins's in that it expands the empirical rules, considers the gradient of each parameters as well as the order, and has the ability to identify the pattern at a finer temporal scale, while the basic concepts are arbitrary and complicated. The application of grain sire trend analysis requires the selection of adequate method and the design of proper sampling scheme, based on the field knowledge of researcher, the temporal scale of sediment transport pattern targeted, and information needed. Besides, the relationship between the depth of sample and representative temporal scale should be systematically investigated in improving this methodology.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.32 no.4
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• pp.517-541
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• 2019

According to the OECD (2015) and UN (2017), Korea was classified as an immigration country. The designation as an immigration country means that net migration will remain positive and international migration is likely to affect population growth. KOSTAT (2011) used a model with more than 15 parameters to divide sexes, immigration and emigration based on the Wilson (2010) model, which takes into account population migration factors. Five years later, we assume the average of domestic net migration rate for the last five years and foreign government policy likely quota. However, both of these results were conservative estimates of international migration and provide different results than those used by the OECD and UN to classify an immigration country. In this paper, we proposed a stochastic projection on international migration using nonparametric model (FDM by Hyndman and Ullah (2007) and Coherent FDM by Hyndman et al. (2013)) that uses a functional data model for the international migration data of Korea from 2000-2017, noting the international migration such as immigration, emigration and net migration is non-linear and not linear. According to the result, immigration rate will be 1.098(male), 1.026(female) in 2018 and 1.228(male), 1.152(female) in 2025 per 1000 population, and the emigration rate will be 0.907(male), 0.879(female) in 2018 and 0.987(male), 0.959(female) in 2025 per 1000 population. Thus the net migration is expected to increase to 0.191(male), 0.148(female) in 2018 and 0.241(male), 0.192(female) in 2025 per 1000 population.

• Journal of the Korean association of regional geographers
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• v.16 no.5
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• pp.590-609
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• 2010

The purpose of the study is to propose and evaluate Exploratory Spatial Data Analysis(ESDA) methods for examining age-specific population migration characteristics. First, population migration pyramid which is a pyramid-shaped graph designed with in-migration, out-migration, and net migration by age (or age group), was developed as a tool exploring age-specific migration propensities and structures. Second, various spatial statistics techniques based on local indicators of spatial association(LISA) such as Local Moran''s $I_i$, Getis-Ord ${G_i}^*$, and AMOEBA were suggested as ways to detect spatial dusters of age-specific net migration rate. These ESDA techniques were applied to age-specific population migration of Daegu Metropolitan City. Application results demonstrated that suggested ESDA methods can effectively detect new information and patterns such as contribution of age-specific migration propensities to population changes in a given region, relationship among different age groups, hot and cold spot of age-specific net migration rate, and similarity between age-specific spatial clusters.

• Journal of the Korean Geographical Society
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• v.42 no.6
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• pp.930-939
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• 2007

This study intends to demonstrate that the population decrease in the City of Busan has been resulted from the move of the city's population towards suburbs as well as the out-migration towards the Seoul metropolitan area. To grasp the pattern in the spatial shift of the Busan's population, I analyze the change of population and households within the city and the migration at the inter-regional and intra-metropolitan scales. The major findings of the study are as follows: First, Busan has experienced population decline since 1995, as other large cities, such as Seoul and Daegu have done. Second, despite the population decrease, the number of households has been increased in Busan. Third, the residents of Busan have mostly moved not only to the Seoul metropolitan area but also to the suburban region of Busan. This finding may well contradict the long-standing belief that the continued decrease in the Busan population could be the result of the out-migration toward the Seoul metropolitan area. Fourth, the residential suburbanization in Busan can be interpreted as the extensive intra-metropolitan dispersion, which means the growth of the Busan metropolitan area.

• Journal of the Korean Geographical Society
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• v.28 no.1
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• pp.40-57
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• 1993

This paper aims to show the various aspects of migration in Kwangju merropolitan area, southwestern Korea, for a period of years 1980-1985. Migratory patterns are spatially extensive in countryside around Kwanfju, and due to high accessibility to the metropolitan area urban implosion emerges in the city. In Chonnam province where Kwangju is loca-ted, all cities and counties except for such in-dustrial areas as Yochon, and Kwangyang are experiencing population losses in terms of net migration by survival rate methods. Kwangju is the exceptionally one of in-migration areas in Chonnam, though its central part(Dong-Gu) is also an out-migrated area. Predominantly in-migration urban areas have high proportions of a student age group between 15-19 years, and that reflects the importance of the educational factor in migration analysis. The municipal authorities of Kwangju are planning to block the way of the middle sxhool students who live in the outskirts of Kwangju to entrance to high school in the city. Thant may stir up migrations into Kwangju for the elementary and middle school students, because the city id expected to provide educational opportunities higher and better than remaining Chonnam areas. Population of Kwangju would, therefore, grow as the students migrate into the city. The findings on the residential intra-city movement in selected 5 Dongs indicate that implications of a short-distance movement re noteworthy; neighbour to neighbour, and the nearest stop in the way from the outer Kwangju as well. Trends in a short-distance movement are in accord with Ravensteins's "law of migra-tion". But in casw of the inter-provincial migra-tion to Kwangju, the number of in-migrants from remoter Seoul is more than that from nearer Chonbuk province. Therefore it supports the fact that the movement between capital region and far off local cities overcomes a distance barrier. The temporary mobility for a day has been increased as the standard of living has improved and it reaches a peak on weekend or on con-secutive holidays. The number of temporal movers to Kwangju from capital region and Yongnam area, southeastern Korea has a greatincrease in terms of the frequency of the passengers' mobility, in particular on Myongjol(the ethnic and traditional festival day) in com-parison with on weekdays. By comparison with two largest Myongjols, the number of movers is more on Chusok(The Full Moon festival on lunar August) than on Sol (lunar new year's day). Annual peak point of weekday movers appears in August because of summer vacation. But the lowest one appears in June, which is related to the busy farming season. A patients' move for medical services in on the increase with a change of living conditions. It is especially true in the industrial counties such as Kwangyang and Yochon. By way of conclusion, it should be pointed out that one of the problems we face in survey of migration volume by the survival rate method is that the survival rate somtimes exceeds the value 1.0, in normal states of which should be under 1.0. it may be due to the shortcoming from the census statistics. We should not give therefore too much stress on the importance of migrations or moves as an element of changes in spatial pattern. In cinclusion, the results of the study show some geographic facts as the followings: 1. One of the outstanding phenomena in all types of movement is the seletivity of ages. The most important factors are related to education and employment. 2. Short-distance movement is carried out in accordance with Ravenstein's law, but in case long-distance movement, in-migration from capital region is prominent in spite of remoten-ces. The gravity between large cities such as Kwangju and Seoul, which has a frequent human movenent, causes urban implosion of small cities between those cities. 3. The temporary mobility for a day, in con-trast to that of permanent movement, is more related to transportation, and its volumes and annual variations are a large-scale. 4. Passengers' mobility is high in industrial cities. And the scope of patients' mobility is narrower than passengers'.