방사선산업학회지 (Journal of Radiation Industry)

한국방사선산업학회 (Korean Society of Radiation Industry)
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핵물질 연대측정을 위한 불확도 추정 알고리즘 연구

Uncertainty Calculation Algorithm for the Estimation of the Radiochronometry of Nuclear Material

  • 투고 : 2023.10.06
  • 심사 : 2023.12.11
  • 발행 : 2023.12.31
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초록

Nuclear forensics has been understood as a mendatory component in the international society for nuclear material control and non-proliferation verification. Radiochronometry of nuclear activities for nuclear forensics are decay series characteristics of nuclear materials and the Bateman equation to estimate when nuclear materials were purified and produced. Radiochronometry values have uncertainty of measurement due to the uncertainty factors in the estimation process. These uncertainties should be calculated using appropriate evaluation methods that are representative of the accuracy and reliability. The IAEA, US, and EU have been researched on radiochronometry and uncertainty of measurement, although the uncertainty calculation method using the Bateman equation is limited by the underestimation of the decay constant and the impossibility of estimating the age of more than one generation, so it is necessary to conduct uncertainty calculation research using computer simulation such as Monte Carlo method. This highlights the need for research using computational simulations, such as the Monte Carlo method, to overcome these limitations. In this study, we have analyzed mathematical models and the LHS (Latin Hypercube Sampling) methods to enhance the reliability of radiochronometry which is to develop an uncertainty algorithm for nuclear material radiochronometry using Bateman Equation. We analyzed the LHS method, which can obtain effective statistical results with a small number of samples, and applied it to algorithms that are Monte Carlo methods for uncertainty calculation by computer simulation. This was implemented through the MATLAB computational software. The uncertainty calculation model using mathematical models demonstrated characteristics based on the relationship between sensitivity coefficients and radiative equilibrium. Computational simulation random sampling showed characteristics dependent on random sampling methods, sampling iteration counts, and the probability distribution of uncertainty factors. For validation, we compared models from various international organizations, mathematical models, and the Monte Carlo method. The developed algorithm was found to perform calculations at an equivalent level of accuracy compared to overseas institutions and mathematical model-based methods. To enhance usability, future research and comparisons·validations need to incorporate more complex decay chains and non-homogeneous conditions. The results of this study can serve as foundational technology in the nuclear forensics field, providing tools for the identification of signature nuclides and aiding in the research, development, comparison, and validation of related technologies.

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과제정보

본 연구는 원자력안전위원회의 재원으로 한국원자력안전재단의 지원을 받아 수행한 원자력안전규제기술개발 사업의 연구 결과입니다(No. 2004025).

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