한국농림기상학회지 (Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology)

  • 제24권4호
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  • Pages.256-266
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  • 2022
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  • 1229-5671(pISSN)
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  • 2288-1859(eISSN)
한국농림기상학회 (Korean Society of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology)
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작물모형 입력자료용 일사량 추정을 위한 지역 특이적 AP 계수 평가

Assessment of Region Specific Angstrom-Prescott Coefficients on Uncertainties of Crop Yield Estimates using CERES-Rice Model

  • 조영상 (서울대학교 식물생산과학부) ;
  • 정재민 (서울대학교 식물생산과학부) ;
  • 현신우 (서울대학교 농림생물자원학부) ;
  • 김광수 (서울대학교 식물생산과학부)
  • Young Sang, Joh (Department of Plant Science, Seoul National University ) ;
  • Jaemin, Jung (Department of Plant Science, Seoul National University ) ;
  • Shinwoo, Hyun (Department of Agriculture, Forestry and Bioresources, Seoul National University) ;
  • Kwang Soo, Kim (Department of Plant Science, Seoul National University )
  • 투고 : 2022.09.16
  • 심사 : 2022.12.14
  • 발행 : 2022.12.30
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초록

일사량은 작물모형의 구동에 필수적인 요소지만, 일사량의 직접관측은 다른 기상자료들과 다르게 많은 인적, 물적 자원이 필요하다. 직접 일사량을 측정하는 대신 다른 기상자료를 통해 일사량을 추정하는 여러 방식이 존재하고 그중 대표적인 방법이 일조시간을 통해 일사량을 추정하는 Angstrom-Prescott 모델이다. Frere and Popov(1979)에 의해 전세계의 기후를 세 분류로 나누어 일조시간을 일사량으로 변환하는 AP 계수(APFrere)가 제시되었고, 국내 18개 종관기상관측소에서 30년간 관측한 일단위 일사량과 일조량 관측자료를 통해 AP계수를 경험적으로 도출한 계수(APChoi)가 Choi et al.(2010)에 의해 제시되었다. 본 연구에서는 2012년부터 2021년까지 일사량 관측값(SObs)과 APFrere와 APChoi를 통해 도출한 일사량(SFrere, SChoi)을 NRMSE와 t검정을 통해 분석하였고, 이를 DSSAT 작물모형에 입력모수로 사용하여 벼 품종 오대, 화성 및 추청에 대한 생육모의를 하였다. 일사량 추정 결과 일사량의 추정값과 측정값 사이에는 12%에서 22%사이의 오차가 존재하였고, 이를 3월부터 9월 사이의 생육기간에 한정하여 누적 일사량을 계산하면 오차가 줄었다. 18개의 지역중 관찰값과 생육기간의 누적 일사량은 SFrere의 경우에 10개의 지역에서 SChoi 보다 SObs와 가까웠고, 일일 일사량의 오차율을 통해 분석하였을때 SFrere가 12개 지역에서 더 가까웠다.

Empirical models including the Angstrom-Prescott (AP) model have been used to estimate solar radiation at sites, which would support a wide use of crop models. The objective of this study was to estimate two sets of solar radiation estimates using the AP coefficients derived for climate zone (APFrere) and specific site (APChoi), respectively. The daily solar radiation was estimated at 18 sites in Korea where long-term measurements of solar radiation were available. In the present study, daily solar radiation and sunshine duration were collected for the period from 2012 to 2021. Daily weather data including maximum and minimum temperatures and rainfall were also obtained to prepare input data to a process-based crop model, CERES-Rice model included in Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT). It was found that the daily estimates of solar radiation using the climate zone specific coefficient, SFrere, had significantly less error than those using site-specific coefficients SChoi (p<0.05). The cumulative values of SFrere for the period from march to September also had less error at 55% of study sites than those of SChoi. Still, the use of SFrere and SChoi as inputs to the CERES-Rice model resulted in slight differences between the outcomes of crop growth simulations, which had no significant difference between these outputs. These results suggested that the AP coefficients for the temperate climate zone would be preferable for the estimation of solar radiation. This merits further evaluation studies to compare the AP model with other sophisticated approaches such as models based on satellite data.

키워드

과제정보

이 논문은 본 연구는 농림축산식품부의 재원으로 농림식품기술기획평가원의 농업에너지자립형 산업모델기술개발 사업의 지원을 받았습니다(321075-02-1-SB010).

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