Journal of Korea Port Economic Association (한국항만경제학회지)

The Korea Port Economic Association (한국항만경제학회)
권호 표지
DOI QR코드

DOI QR Code

Assessing an Economic Feasibility of Coastal Marine Ranching Project in Uluengdo

울릉도 연안바다목장사업의 경제적 타당성분석

  • 표희동 (부경대학교 해양수산경영학과)
  • Received : 2020.12.14
  • Accepted : 2021.03.29
  • Published : 2021.03.31
Download PDF
⟨ Previous Next ⟩

Abstract

A coastal marine ranching project in Uleungdo had been conducted for 5 years from 2013 to 2017 with investment costs of 5 billion won, for the special purpose of the deployment of artificial reefs, the release of young fishes. The paper focuses on an ex-post analysis of the economic feasibility for the project after completing the project, which is apart from a preliminary viability. For economic analysis, the economic benefits are derived from direct benefits including increasing effects of fisheries income and saving effects of harvesting costs, and indirect benefits including increasing effects of recreational fishing and preservation effects of coastal marine ecosystems while economic costs include releasing and purchasing costs of artificial reef and juvenile fish, R&D costs, maintenance costs and harvesting costs. The result shows that the project should not be accepted according to NPV=-0.125 billion won, IRR=4.5% and B/C ratio=0.98 under Scenario 1 which considers direct benefits and indirect benefits excluding the preservation values, while the project should be accepted under Scenario 2 indicating NPV=30.9 billion won, IRR=11.3% and B/C ratio=1.49 which considers the direct benefits as well as the indirect ones including the preservation values, based on 4.5% of the social rate of discount.

울릉 연안바다목장 사업은 조성사업을 위해 5년(2013~2017년) 동안 총 50억원(국비 25억+지방비 25억)의 사업비가 투입되어 어장조성, 자원조성, 종자방류, 효과조사 등을 수행하였다. 경제적 편익은 크게 어업순소득 증대효과와 어업 생산비용 절감 효과를 포함한 직접적 효과와 유어낚시 편익 증대효과와 연안바다생태계의 보존가치를 포함한 간접적 효과로 구성한다. 증분율(1안)을 바탕으로 분석한 결과 현존량 평균기준과 총량기준에 의한 어류어업 순소득 증대효과는 '283,958.79천원/년'으로 추정되었고, 어류어업 생산비용 절감효과는 '51,695.46천원/년', 비어류어업의 생산비용 절감효과는 '6,420.65천원/년'으로 추정되었다. 울릉군 유어낚시객 263명을 대상으로 조사한 결과 1년 동안 울릉도 유어낚시 횟수는 평균 7.9회, 1일 유어낚시 어획량은 평균 5.85kg, 왕복여행비용은 평균 659만원, 조획증가율은 평균 12.7%, 가계소득은 평균 462.8만원인데, 이에 따른 울릉도 연안바다목장의 유어낚시의 연간 경제적 편익은 '29,944.75천원/년'으로 추정되었다. 이와 같이 울릉도 연안바다목장 경제성 분석결과 시장가치만을 적용한 보수적 경제성 분석에 의하면 사회적 할인율 4.5%에서의 순현재가치(NPV)는 -1.25억원, 내부수익률(IRR)은 4.30%, 편익/비용비율(B/C ratio)은 0.98로 평가되어 경제적 타당성을 약간 확보하지 못하고 있다. 비시장가치를 포함한 확대된 경제적 타당성 분석결과는 순현재가치가 30.9억원, 내부수익률이 11.3%, 편익/비용비율이 1.49으로 보존가치를 포함할 경우 보수적 방법에 의한 것보다 상당한 경제성을 가지고 있는 것으로 평가된다.

Keywords

Acknowledgement

이 논문은 부경대학교 자율창의학술연구비(CD-2020-1495)로 연구되었음

References

  1. 기획재정부(2017), 예비타당성조사 총괄 지침(개정)
  2. 김정훈(2009), 확률론적 시뮬레이션을 이용한 내륙수로 교통안전시설의 경제성 분석, 한국항만경제학회지, 25(4), 167-184.
  3. 김현아(2016), 한국 서해어업의 잠재생산량 추정연구. 부경대학교 대학원 이학석사학위논문
  4. 농림수산식품부(2010), 전남바다목장사업 경제성 분석.
  5. 부경대학교(2018), 2017년 연안바다목장 조성 해역 경제성 분석 및 사업성과분석, 한국수산자원관리공단.
  6. 이기환.황두건.김명희(2008), 부산 신항 컨테이너터미널 배후단지 조성사업의 경제성 평가연구, 한국항만경제학회지, 24(4), 153-171.
  7. 이정전(2011), 환경경제학, 박영사.
  8. 울릉군청(2016), 2015 통계연보
  9. 울릉군청(2017), 2016 통계연보
  10. 울릉군청 홈페이지, (www.ulleung.go.kr)
  11. 장창익.박희원.임정현.권혁찬.김도훈(2010), 생태계 기반 자원평가를 위한 지표와 기준점 연구, 한국어업기술학회지, 46(1), 32-49.
  12. 제주대학교(2013), 제주 시범바다목장사업의 어업편익 추정과 경제성 평가, 한국수산자원관리공단
  13. 조성우.원승환.최상희(2014), 자동 컨테이너 터미널의 하역시스템에 따른 경제성 비교, 한국항만경제학회지, 30(3), 121-140.
  14. 표희동(2017), 개별여행비용법을 이용한 동해안 해수욕장의 경제적 가치추정, Ocean and Polar Research, 39(1):51-59. https://doi.org/10.4217/OPR.2017.39.1.051
  15. 표희동.이려건(2019), 조건부가치측정법을 이용한 동해 연안습지의 보존가치추정, 수산해양교육연구, 31(1), 48-59.
  16. 한국수산자원관리공단(2017), 2016 연안어업실태조사(시.도편).
  17. 한국수산자원관리공단(2017), 2017년 연안바다목장 조성해역 수산자원량 추정조사 용역-울릉도(초판)
  18. Arrow K, Solow, Portney K, Leamer PR, Radner EE, and Schuman EH(1993), Report of the NOAA Panel on Contingent Valuation. Report to the General Counsel of the US National Ocean and Atmospheric Administration, US Department of Commerce, NOAA.
  19. Awondo SN, Egan KJ, Dwyer DF (2011), Increasing beach recreation benefits by using wetland to reduce contamination. Marine Resource Economics, 26, 1-15. https://doi.org/10.5950/0738-1360-26.1.1
  20. Barbier ED, Hacker, SD, Kennedy, C, Koch, EW(2011), The Value of Estuarine and Coastal Ecosystem Services, Ecological Monographs, 81(2), 169-193. https://doi.org/10.1890/10-1510.1
  21. Blakemore F, Williams A (2008), British tourists' valuation of a Turkish beach using contingent valuation and travel cost methods. J Coastal Research, 24, 1469-1480. https://doi.org/10.2112/06-0813.1
  22. Boman, M., Bostedt, G. and Kristrom, B. A.(1999), Obtaining Welfare Bounds in Discrete-Response Valuation Studies: A Non Parametric Approach, Land Economics, 75, 284-294. https://doi.org/10.2307/3147011
  23. Carson RT and Navarro P(1988), Fundamental Issues in Natural Resource Damage Assessment, Natural Resources J., 28, 815-836.
  24. Creel M, Loomis J (1990), Theoretical and empirical advantages of truncated count data estimators for analysis of deer hunting in California, Am J. Agricultural Economics, 72, 434-441 https://doi.org/10.2307/1242345
  25. Curtis JA (2002), Estimating the demand for salmon angling in Ireland. Economic and Social Review, 33, 319-332.
  26. Fisher AC and Raucher R(1984), Intrinsic Benefits of Improved Water Quality: Conceptual and Empirical Perspectives. In: Smith, K.V. (ed.) Advances in Applied Economics, Greenwich Conn., JAI Press.
  27. Green CH and Tunstall SM(1991), Is the Economic Evaluation of Environmental Resources Possible?. J. Environmental Management, 33, 123-141. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0301-4797(05)80089-1
  28. Grossman, G. D. and Jones, G. P.(1997), Do Artificial Reefs Increase Regional Fish Production? A Review of Existing Data, Fisheries, 22(4), 17-23. https://doi.org/10.1577/1548-8446(1997)022<0017:DARIRF>2.0.CO;2
  29. Gulland, J. A.(1971), The Fish Resources of the Ocean, Fishing News (Books), West Byfleet, p.255.
  30. Hanemann, W. M., Loomis J. B., and Kaninnen B. J.(1991), Statistical Efficiency of Double Bounded Dichotomous Choice Contingent Valuation, American J. Agricultural Economics, 73, 1255-1263. https://doi.org/10.2307/1242453
  31. Hellerstein, D. and Mendelsohn, R.(1993), A Theoretical Foundation for Count Data Models, American J. Agricultural Economics, 75, 604-611. https://doi.org/10.2307/1243567
  32. Islam, G. M. N., Noh, K. M., Sidique, S. F., Noh, A. F. M. and Ali, A(2014), Economic impact of artificial reefs: A case study of small scale fishers in Terengganu, Peninsular Malaysia, Fisheries Research, 151, 122-129. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.fishres.2013.10.018
  33. Johnson, T. D., Barnett, A. M., DeMartini, E. E., Craft, L. L., Ambrose, R. F. and Purcell, L. J. (1994), Fish Production And Habitat Utilization On A Southern California Artificial Reef, Bulletin Of Marine Science, 55, 709-723
  34. Kristrom, B.A. (1990), A non-parametric approach to the estimation of welfare measure in discrete response valuation studies, Land Economics, 66(2), 135-139. https://doi.org/10.2307/3146363
  35. Krutilla JV(1967), Conservation Reconsidered, The American Economic Review, 57, 776-786.
  36. Lew DK, Larson DM (2005), Valuing recreation and amenities at San Diego County Beaches. Coastal Management, 33, 71-86. https://doi.org/10.1080/08920750590883079
  37. Loomis J and Santiago L(2013). Economic Valuation of Beach Quality Improvements: Comparing Incremental Attribute Values Estimated from Two Stated Preference Valuation Methods, Coastal Management, 41, 75-86. https://doi.org/10.1080/08920753.2012.749754
  38. Machado FS and Mourato S(2002), Evaluating the Multiple Benefits of Marine Water Quality Improvements: How Important Are Health Risk Reductions?, J. Environmental Mangement, 65, 239-250. https://doi.org/10.1006/jema.2002.0531
  39. Murray C, Sohngen B, Pendleton L (2001), Valuing water quality advisories and beach amenities in the Great Lakes, Water Resource Research, 37, 2583-2590. https://doi.org/10.1029/2001WR000409
  40. Nunes P, van den Bergh JCJM (2004,) Can people value protection against invasive marine species? Evidence from a joint TC-CV survey in the Netherlands, Environmental Resource Economics, 28, 517-532. https://doi.org/10.1023/B:EARE.0000036777.83060.b6
  41. Parsons GR, Chen Z, Hidrue MK, Standing N, Lilley J (2013), Valuing beach width for recreational use: combining revealed and stated preference data, Marine Resource Economics, 28, 221-241. https://doi.org/10.5950/0738-1360-28.3.221
  42. Parsons GR, Kang AK(2010), Compensatory restoration in a random utility model of recreation demand, Contemporary Economic Policy, 28, 453-463. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1465-7287.2010.00219.x
  43. Randll A(1993), Panel Discussion. in Hausman, J.A.(ed.) Contingent Valuation: A Critical Assessment, 445-450. Amsterdam: Elsevier Science.
  44. Rolfe J, Gregg D (2012), Valuing beach recreation across a regional area: the Great Barrier Reef in Australia. Ocean and Coastal Management, 69, 282-290. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2012.08.019
  45. Sato, O.(1985), Scientific Rationales for Fishing Reef Design", Bulletin of Marine Science, 37(1), 329-335.
  46. Sutherland RJ and Walsh RG(1985), Effect of Distance on the Preservation Value of Water Quality, Land Economics, 61, 281-291. https://doi.org/10.2307/3145843
  47. Torres C, Hanley N (2016), Economic valuation of coastal and marine ecosystem services in the 21st century: an overview from a management perspective. University of St. Andrews, Saint Andrews
  48. UKNEA(2011), UK National Ecosystem Assessment Technical Report.
  49. Ward FA, Loomis J (1986), The travel cost demand model as an environmental policy assessment tool: a review of literature, Western J. Agricultural Economics, 11, 164-178.
  50. Whitehead JC, Dumas CF, Herstine J, Hill J, Buerger B (2008), Valuing beach access and width with revealed and stated preference data, Marine Resource Economics, 23, 119-135. https://doi.org/10.1086/mre.23.2.42629607
  51. Whitmarsh, D., Santos, M. N., Ramos, J. and Monteiro, C. C.(2008), Marine habitat modification through artificial reefs off the Algarve (southern Portugal): An economic analysis of the fisheries and the prospects for management, Ocean and Costal Management, 51(6),463-468. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2008.04.004
  52. Windle J, Rolfe J (2013), Estimating nonmarket values of Brisbane (state capital) residents for state based beach recreation. Ocean and Coastal Management, 85, 103-111. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2013.09.011
  53. Yen ST, Adamowicz WL (1993), Statistical properties of welfare measures from count-data models of recreation demand, Review of Agricultural Economics, 15, 203-215. https://doi.org/10.2307/1349443
  54. Zhang F, Wang XH, Nunes P, Ma C (2015), The recreational value of gold coast beaches, Australia: an application of the travel cost method, Ecosystem Services, 11, 106-114. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecoser.2014.09.001