Journal of Digital Convergence (디지털융복합연구)

The Society of Digital Policy and Management (한국디지털정책학회)
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A Study on the Stationary State of Military Pension using Markov Chains

마코프 체인을 이용한 군인연금 안정상태에 관한 연구

  • 배영민 (김천대학교 ICT군사학부)
  • Received : 2020.11.04
  • Accepted : 2021.02.20
  • Published : 2021.02.28
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Abstract

The military pension deficit is increasing due to an increase in the average life expectancy and pension option rate, and a significant reason for this is estimated to be a continued increase in the number of military pension recipients. In terms of the soundness of military pension finances, this paper uses the Markov chain model to validate the stability of the military group, suggesting the direction of future military pension system in terms of the ratio of pension receipts to employees, and verifying the feasibility of the method applied through verification. Through this paper, we have confirmed that the initial 45,270 military personnel converge to 43,141 after a certain period of time and reach a stable state, which is expected to help us to estimate the long term size of military pension recipients to confirm the direction of national financial support. Military man who are eligible for pensions for more than 20 years have a relatively low rate of turnover or retirement compared to ordinary private groups, making it easier to define their status and simplify state transition probabilities. Therefore, it is expected that the sustainability of the military pension will be confirmed from a long term perspective by viewing the military group as a system and applying it to the Markov chain model by checking the probability of transfer of status such as promotion, maintaining the current grade, and retirement during the period.

평균 수명과 연금 선택률 증가에 따른 군인연금 적자가 늘어나고 있으며 이에 대한 중요한 원인은 군인연금 수령자의 지속적인 증가로 추정되고 있다. 군인연금 재정의 건전성 측면에서 중·장기적인 군인연금 수령자의 규모를 확인하는 연구가 부족한 현실에서 본 연구는 마코프 체인 모형을 이용하여 군인집단의 안정상태를 확인하여 재직 인원대비 연금수령 비율인 부양률 측면에서 향후 군인연금 제도가 나아가야 할 방향을 제시하고 검증을 통해 적용 방법의 타당성을 확인한다. 본 연구를 통해서 초기 45,270 명 수준의 군 재직 인원은 일정 시간이 지나면 43,141 명으로 수렴하여 안정상태에 도달하는 것을 확인하였으며 이를 통해 군인연금 수령자의 중·장기적 규모를 추정하여 부양률 측면에서 국가 재정지원의 방향성을 확인할 수 있을 것으로 기대된다. 군인연금 수령자 대상인 20년 이상의 군인은 다른 민간직업과 비교하여 이직 또는 퇴직하는 비율이 상대적으로 낮은 상태로 상태 정의가 수월하고 상태에 대한 전이확률을 단순하게 적용할 수 있다. 따라서 군인집단을 하나의 시스템으로 보고 그 활동기간 중 진급, 현 계급 유지, 퇴직 등의 상태 전이확률을 확인하여 마코프 체인 모형에 적용함으로써 안정적 상태의 군인집단 상태를 도출하여 장기적 관점에서 군인연금의 지속가능성을 확인할 수 있을 것으로 기대한다.

Keywords

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