The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics (응용통계연구)

The Korean Statistical Society (한국통계학회)
권호 표지
DOI QR코드

DOI QR Code

A case study for alternative methods of election forecasting

선거예측의 대안적 방법에 대한 사례연구

  • Ryu, Jea-Bok (Department of Statistics, College of Science & Engineering, Cheongju University)
  • Received : 2020.05.12
  • Accepted : 2020.05.22
  • Published : 2020.08.31
Download PDF
⟨ Previous Next ⟩

Abstract

We compared and analyzed the relationship between vote intention, vote expectation, and party approval rate using the 19th Presidential Election and the 7th Nationwide Simultaneous Local Election (Regional Local Government Election) poll data. The case study provides an alternative method of predicting the winner using vote expectation and a party approval rate that can improve the accuracy of election forecasting.

본 연구에서는 제19대 대통령선거와 제7회 전국동시지방선거(광역단체장선거) 여론조사자료를 이용해서 후보지지율, 당선가능성 및 정당지지율의 관계를 비교, 분석하였다. 사례연구결과 당선가능성과 정당지지율을 이용해서 당선자를 예측하는 대안적 방법이 선거예측의 정확성을 높일 수 있을 것으로 기대된다.

Keywords

References

  1. Campbell, J. (1996). Polls and votes - The trial-heat presidential election forecasting model, certainty, and political campaigns, American Politics Research, 24, 408-433. https://doi.org/10.1177/1532673X9602400402
  2. Hayes, S. P. (1936). The predictive ability of voters, Journal of Social Psychology, 45, 183-191. https://doi.org/10.1080/00224545.1936.9921660
  3. Graefe, A. (2014). Accuracy of vote expectation surveys in forecasting elections, Public Opinion Quarterly, 73, Special Issue, 204-232. https://doi.org/10.1093/poq/nfu008
  4. Graefe, A. (2015). Accuracy gains of adding vote expectation surveys to a combined forecast of US presidential election outcomes, Research and Politics, January-March, 1-5.
  5. Graefe, A. (2016). Forecasting proportional representation elections from non-representative expectation surveys, Electoral Studies, 42, 222-228. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2016.03.001
  6. Graefe, A., Armstrong, J. S., Jones, Jr. R. J., and Cuzan, A. (2014). Combining forecasts: An application to elections, International Journal of Forecasting, 30, 43-54. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2013.02.005
  7. Lehrer, R., Juhl, S., and Gschwend, T.(2019). The wisdom of crowds design for sensitive survey questions, Electoral Studies, 57, 99-109. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2018.09.012
  8. Lewis-Beck, M. S. and Skalaban, A. (1989). Citizen forecasting: Can voters see into the future?, British Journal of Political Science, 19, 146-153. https://doi.org/10.1017/S000712340000538X
  9. Lewis-Beck, M. S. and Stegmaier, M. (2011). Citizen forecasting: Can UK voters see the future?, Electoral Studies, 30, 264-268. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2010.09.012
  10. Lewis-Beck, M. S. and Tien, C. (1999). Voters as forecasters: A micromodel of election prediction, International Journal of Forecasting, 15, 175-184. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0169-2070(98)00063-6
  11. Miller, M. K., Wang, G., Kulkarni, S. R., Poor, H. V., and Osherson, D. N.(2012). Citizen forecasts of the 2008 U.S. presidential election?, Politics & Policy, 40, 1019-1052. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1747-1346.2012.00394.x
  12. Murr, A. E. (2011). "Wisdom of crowds?" A decentralized election forecasting model that uses citizens' local expectations, Electoral Studies, 30, 771-783. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2011.07.005
  13. Murr, A. E. (2015). The wisdom of crowds: Applying Condorcet's jury theorem to forecasting US presi-dential elections, International Journal of Forecasting, 31, 916-929. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2014.12.002
  14. Rothschild, D. and Wolfers, J. (2013). Forecasting elections: Voter intentions versus expectations (working paper). Available from: http://users.nber.org/jwolfers/Papers/VoterExpectations.pdf
  15. Ryu, J. B. (2018). The accuracy of election forecasts and the chance of winning for multiple candidates:In case of the 2017 presidential election, Survey Research, 19, 1-20. https://doi.org/10.20997/SR.19.3.1
  16. Ryu, J. B. (2019). Alternative methods for election forecast: For the 2017 presidential election, Journal of Research Institute of Industrial Science, 36, 1-8.
  17. National Election Survey Deliberation Commission; http://www.nesde.go.kr/
  18. Wikipedia; https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/United States presidential election♯Popular vote results