• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.33 no.4
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• pp.499-509
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• 2020

We compared and analyzed the relationship between vote intention, vote expectation, and party approval rate using the 19th Presidential Election and the 7th Nationwide Simultaneous Local Election (Regional Local Government Election) poll data. The case study provides an alternative method of predicting the winner using vote expectation and a party approval rate that can improve the accuracy of election forecasting.