Theoretical Considerations on the Risk Assessment Criteria for Preventive Safety Management of High-Speed Railway

고속철도의 예방적 안전관리를 위한 위험도 평가 기준의 이론적 고찰

Abstract

The Railway Safety Management System is based on risk management and the basic purpose of risk management is safety management activities to prevent railway accidents and operational obstacles in advance. In order to manage risk, an acceptable risk standard must be established. This risk criterion is used to evaluate the railway risk with both frequency and severity. In the case of overseas railway or other industrial sectors, various factors are reflected in the main variables that constitute the occurrence frequency, but this is no the case in the domestic railway sector. In particular, the current risk assessment criteria in the railway sector remain at a level that exploits the incidents that have occurred in the past and the severity of the property damage and it dose not properly reflect complex and diverse environmental and situational changes in railway operations. Therefore, in this study, it is possible to calculate the potential occurrence of future events instead of occurrence frequency as a component of the risk assessment criteria, focusing on the High-Speed Railway. In addition to the property damage to the consequence, we suggest a rational methodology, development direction, and theoretical implications for constructing accurate and reasonable risk criteria including actual damage such as human injury and time loss.

Fig. 1. Application example of Risk Matrix Criteria method¹⁵⁾.

Fig. 2. HSE Individual Risk Targets(England, 2011)¹⁶⁾.

Fig. 3. Example of F-N curve.

Fig. 4. Railway risk management standard concept

Fig. 5. Possibility change according to Total train hours change.

Table 1. Terms related to acceptable risk level per industries

Table 2. Definition of possible risk frequency

Table 3. Various overseas standards of Individual Risk Criteria¹⁷⁾

Table 4. Various overseas standards of Societal Risk Criteria¹⁸⁾

Table 5. Railway accident medical cost(2012)¹⁹⁾

Table 6. Railway accident administrative cost(2012)

Table 7. Personal injuries cost of domestic railway sector(2012)

Table 8. Classification of possible incidents applicable to aviation

Table 9. Total train hours per year(Suseo High-Speed Railway)

Table 10. Possibility standards for risk event(Suseo)

Table 11. Example of human injuries severity standards

Table 12. Human injuries severity standards

Table 13. Example of property damage severity standards (Seoul)

Table 14. Human injuries cost standards of the railway(2007)

Table 15. Comparison of railway incidents medical and administrative cost yearly

Table 16. Human injuries standard cost for railway incidents (2012)

Table 17. Consumer price index

Table 18. Human injuries cost of railway incidents( 12~ 17)

Table 19. Standards for possible severity of property damage (Suseo)

Table 20. Example of time loss standards

Table 21. Delayed accidents and operational obstacles(Suseo, 1-year)

Table 22. Numbers of delayed trains per railway incidents (`01~ 15)

Table 23. Standards of delayed trains numbers