Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers (한국농공학회논문집)

The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers (한국농공학회)
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Development of Drought Forecasting Techniques Using Nonstationary Rainfall Simulation Method

비정상성 강우모의기법을 이용한 가뭄 예측기법 개발

  • Kim, Tae-Jeong (Chonbuk National University, Department of Civil Engineering) ;
  • Park, Jong-Hyeon (Chonbuk National University, Department of Civil Engineering) ;
  • Jang, Seok-Hwan (Daejin University, Department of Civil Engineering) ;
  • Kwon, Hyun-Han (Chonbuk National University, Department of Civil Engineering)
  • Received : 2016.08.17
  • Accepted : 2016.08.27
  • Published : 2016.09.30
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Abstract

Drought is a slow-varying natural hazard that is characterized by various factors such that reliable drought forecasting along with uncertainties estimation has been a major issue. In this study, we proposed a stochastic simulation technique based scheme for providing a set of drought scenarios. More specifically, this study utilized a nonstationary Hidden markov model that allows us to include predictors such as climate state variables and global climate model's outputs. The simulated rainfall scenarios were then used to generate the well-known meteorological drought indices such as SPI, PDSI and PN for the three dam watersheds in South Korea. It was found that the proposed modeling scheme showed a capability of effectively reproducing key statistics of the observed rainfall. In addition, the simulated drought indices were generally well correlated with that of the observed.

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References

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