기술혁신학회지 (Journal of Korea Technology Innovation Society)

  • 제18권3호
  • /
  • Pages.492-515
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  • 2015
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  • 1598-2912(pISSN)
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  • 2713-8666(eISSN)
한국기술혁신학회 (Korea Technology Innovation Society)
권호 표지

불확실한 환경에서의 효과적 기획을 위한 시나리오 기반 기술로드맵 프로세스의 개발

Development of Technology Roadmaps under Uncertainty

  • 전정환 (국립경상대학교 산업시스템공학부/ERI/UNICO) ;
  • 금영정 (서울과학기술대학교 글로벌융합산업공학과)
  • 투고 : 2015.07.08
  • 심사 : 2015.09.09
  • 발행 : 2015.09.30
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초록

기술과 시장이 빠르게 발전하면서 불확실성을 기획 현장에 반영하는 활동은 매우 중요한 일로 고려되어 왔다. 따라서 기술기획의 대표적 도구인 기술로드맵의 작성에 있어서도 다양한 불확실성을 고려하는 일이 중요한 연구주제로 고려되어 왔다. 그러나 대부분 기존 연구들은 특정 산업에서의 사례연구 중심으로 이루어져 왔으며, 일반적인 상황에서 활용될 수 있는 체계적인 프레임워크나 방법론적 지원에 관한 연구가 부족한 실정이다. 이에 본 연구에서는 잠재적 시나리오 요인을 파악하고, 이들 시나리오 요인의 관계 및 영향을 판단하여, 분석 결과를 기술로드맵 프로세스에 반영하기 위한 연구를 수행하는 것을 포함하는 전체적인 프레임워크를 제안하고, 각 단계에서 필요한 구체적 방법론들을 제안하여 연계한다. 보다 구체적으로 본 연구는 전체 연구를 시나리오 분석, 초기 기술로드맵 작성, 시나리오 기반 로드맵 개발의 세 단계로 나누고 시나리오 요인을 파악하여 평가하기 위한 방법론, 시나리오 요인과 기획 요인간 관계를 반영하기 위한 QFD 기반 프레임워크, 마지막으로 시나리오 요인을 포함한 기술로드맵의 기본 구조를 제안하고자 한다.

Consideration of uncertainty has been considered to be an important factor in technology planning due to the fast changes of technologies and customer needs. Therefore, how to consider uncertainty has been a promising issue in developing and utilizing the technology roadmap, a prominent tool for the technology planning. However, previous studies regarding technology roadmaps are based on practical case studies for specific certain industries, which are of course useful but sometimes lack systematic frameworks and methodologies. In response, this study suggests a framework to identify possible scenario elements, analyze the impact of each scenario element and reflect the results to the technology roadmapping process. For this purpose, this study suggests a QFD-based framework that evaluates the relationship between scenario elements and the planning elements, and proposes a basic structure of scenario-based technology roadmaps to reflect the evaluation results to the technology roadmapping process.

키워드

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