Journal of Korea Society of Industrial Information Systems (한국산업정보학회논문지)

Korea Society of Industrial Information Systems (한국산업정보학회)
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A Study on the Survival Rate and Factors of FDI to Korea: Focused on ICT Industry

외국인의 국내 직접투자의 생존율과 생존요인에 관한 연구: 정보통신산업을 중심으로

  • 김현규 (부산대학교 국제전문학원)
  • Received : 2015.11.17
  • Accepted : 2015.12.24
  • Published : 2015.12.31
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Abstract

The objective of this paper is to analyze survival rate and factors of FDI(Foreign direct investment) using FDI data of Ministry of Knowledge and Economy. Kaplan-Meier estimation was used. The result was as follows. M&A of FDI was much more risk than Greenfield FDI. .FDI to the IT-service industry was much more risk than FDI to the manufacturing industry. Partnership under 50% was much more risk than partnership over 50%. The accumulated survival rate of M&A was higher then Greenfield until fourth period but was lower than Greenfield after fourth period. The accumulated survival rate of M&A was lower than others from the first period to last period. There was no difference between Partnership under 50% and partnership over 50% to 4th period. After 4th period, Accumulated survival rate of partnership under 50% was higher than accumulated survival partnership over 50%.

우리나라에 대한 외국인 직접투자(FDI)는 1998년 외환위기를 기점으로 하여 3년간 급격하게 증가하였으나 이후 하향 또는 정체현상을 보이고 있으며, 이에 반하여 우리나라의 해외직접투자(ODI)는 2004년 FDI와 비슷하였지만 그 이후 크게 차이를 보이며 능가하고 있다. 아울러 FDI도 고용창출 효과가 떨어지는 M&A형의 성장추세가 Greenfield 투자를 앞지르고 있는 것으로 나타나 이에 대한 대책이 시급한 실정이다. 본 연구는 1998년부터 2001년까지 4년간 국내 정보통신 산업에 유입된 외국인 직접투자를 대상으로 투자유치 이후 8년간 외국인 직접투자가 지속되었는지를 Kaplan-Meier 분석과 Cox PH(비례위험)모형을 사용하여 분석하였다. M&A형 FDI와 공장설립형 Greenfield FDI를 투자지분에 따라 리스크를 비교분석하였고, 이와 함께 투자산업에 따라 생존율과 생존요인을 분석하였다. 분석결과를 간략히 제시하면 투자형태에 따라 생존율이 상이하였으며, 산업 간에도 생존율에 영향을 미치는 요인이 다른 것으로 나타났다.

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