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The Effect of Policy Rate Adjustments in US on the Korean Bond

미국 연방정책금리 조정효과가 국내 국고채시장에 미치는 영향

  • Received : 2013.06.19
  • Accepted : 2013.08.27
  • Published : 2013.09.28

Abstract

The objective of this study is to investigate the effects of FRB's policy rate adjustments on the 10 years Korea Treasury Bond (KTB) market. Our results are summarized as follows. First, it is found that the FRB's policy rate adjustments are statistically significant positive impact on the 10 years KTB yield. Based on projection, the 10bp increases in FRB's policy rate generates 7bp higher in 10 years KTB yield. Second, the result from after the Lehman bankruptcy in '08 is found to be statistically significant, while that of before financial crisis is not. Third, the variable, in which consistent with yield difference between the 10 years UTB(US Treasury Bond) and the 10 years KTB, is found that is statistically significant positive impact in 1% significance level. And also given that Brunner(2000) exhibited that the Federal Fund Rate innovations are found to impact on other economic variables through the impulse response, the 10 years KTB yield is found to respond to innovation in the Federal Fund Rate up to about 12 months.

본 연구의 목적은 미국 FRB의 정책금리조정 영향이 국내 국고채 채권시장에 어떤 영향을 미치는 가를 실증 분석하는 것이다. 본 연구를 통해 얻은 결론은 다음과 같다. 우선, 첫째, 미국 정책금리 변경 효과가 국내 채권시장에 통계적으로 유의한 (+) 영향을 미친다는 사실이 규명되었다. 추정에 따르면 미국 FRB의 정책금리가 10bp상승(하락) 변경될 경우 국내 10년물 국고채 금리는 7bp 상승(하락)하는 것으로 추정된다. 둘째, '08년 글로벌 금융위기 전 후를 나누어 실증 분석해 본 결과, 금융위기 이후 데이터에서는 1%의 유의수준으로 유의한 (+) 영향이 도출되었으나, 금융위기 이전 시기에서는 유의하지 못한 결과가 도출되었다. 셋째, 한 미 양국 간의 국고채 수익률 차이변수를 활용해 실증분석 해본 결과에 따르면 한 미 양국 간 국채수익률 차이는 통계적으로 1%의 유의한 (+) 영향을 받는 것으로 드러났다. 또한 본 연구에서는 Brunner(2000)의 연구에서 보고한 충격반응을 활용해 미국 FRB의 정책금리변수의 조정 영향이 국내 국고채 10년물에 어떠한 영향을 미치는가를 분석했다. 분석결과에 따르면, 미국 FRB의 정책조정변수의 영향력은 국내 10년물 국고채 시장에 12개월 정도 지속되는 것으로 나타났다.

Keywords

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