Abstract
In Korea, military authorities have neglected to consider impacts of military projects on local communities and natural environment. Moreover, local communities have had difficulties in dealing with the Ministry of National Defense (MND), which was stubborn enough not to implement environmental assessment on their projects. In this situation, recent case, "EIA of Baekgol Division's Howitzer Fire Training Site" in the Supreme Court-in which judges upheld the Higher Court's decision that the division violated the Environmental Impact Assessment law by ignoring to implement EIA-reveals that military projects can no longer forgo environmental assessment. The decision has serious ramifications on the future of Environmental Impact Assessment in military-led projects. This paper examines the proper scope of EIA in military-led projects and, more specifically, fire training site and searches for how to improve it through 'probable error,' a military training method that is applied to real 'howitzer' fire training. Probable error of the artillery field manual is nothing more than an error that exceeded as often as it is not exceeded and its scientific method was demonstrated through real fire tests in the US. Army. If it is applied to improve assessment methods about the proper scope of EIA in military 'howitzer' fire training site, 'probable error' will improve effect prediction, mitigation and reliability.
