A Study on the Forecast of Bed Demand ofr Institutional Long-term Care in Taegu, Korea

대구광역시 노인복지시설 유형별 수요추정

The purpose of this study was to estimate the forecast of bed demand for institutional long-term care for the elderly persons in Taegu Metropolitan City. The study subject was the total 1,877 elderly persons over age 65 living in Taegu. Among them 1,441 elderly persons were sampled from community and 436 were from the elderly admitted 5 general hospitals. Data collection was carried out by interview from 25 August to 25 December 1997. The measuring instrument of this study was the modified tool of CARE, MAI, PCTC, and ADL which were examined for validity and reliability. In order to forecast bed demand of Nursing Home, this study revised prediction techniques suggested by Robin. The results were as follows : 1. OLDi of Taegu City were 122,202 by the year 1998 and number of Low-Income Elderly Persons were 3,210. 2. The Level I : Senior Citizen Home $ADEMi=\frac{AQi * ASTAYi}{365 * AOCUi}$. AQi = OLDi * LADLi * NASi * ALONi * LIADLi * AUTILi. Predicted number of bed demand for Home Based. Elderly Persons were 4,210 and Low-Income Elderly Persons were 1,081 and Total Elderly Persons were 5,291 by the year 1998, 6,343 by the year 2000 and 8,351 by the 2005. 3. The Level II : Nursing Home $BDEMi=\frac{(BQ1i+BQ2i) * BSTAYi}{365 * BOCUi}$. BQ1i = OLDi * HADLi * ALONi * HIADLi BQ2i = OLDi * HADLi * FAMi * OBEDi Predicted number of demand for Total Elderly Persons were 668 by the year 1998, 802 by the year 2000 and 1,055 by the 2005. 4. The Level III : Nursing Home $CDEMi=\frac{COLDi * HDISi * CUTILi * CSTAYi}{365 * COCUi}+OQi/10$ Predicted number of demand for Total Elderly Persons were 1,899 by the year 1998, 2,311 by the year 2000 and 3,003 by the 2005. 5. Predicted number of bed demand of long-term care facilities in the year 1998 according to Levels were 4.3% among elderly persons in Taegu by Level I, 0.5% by Level II and 1.5% by Level III. Number of elderly persons in current long-term care facilities were 458 in LevelI I,284 in Level II. 6. Deficit number of bed demand of long-term care facilities were 4,833 in Level I, 384 in Level II, 1,899 in Level III for the elderly persons in Taegu Metropolitan City.