Generalized Replacement Demand Forecasting to Complement Diffusion Models

Replacement demand plays an important role to forecast the total demand of durable goods, while most of the diffusion models deal with only adoption data, namely initial purchase demand. This paper presents replacement demand forecasting models incorporating repurchase rate, multi-ownership, and dynamic product life to complement the existing diffusion models. The performance of replacement demand forecasting models are analyzed and practical guidelines for the application of the models are suggested when life distribution data or adoption data are not available.