• Title/Summary/Keyword: Replacement demand

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Generalized Replacement Demand Forecasting to Complement Diffusion Models

  • Chung, Kyu-Suk;Park, Sung-Joo
    • Journal of Korean Institute of Industrial Engineers
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    • v.14 no.1
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    • pp.103-117
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    • 1988
  • Replacement demand plays an important role to forecast the total demand of durable goods, while most of the diffusion models deal with only adoption data, namely initial purchase demand. This paper presents replacement demand forecasting models incorporating repurchase rate, multi-ownership, and dynamic product life to complement the existing diffusion models. The performance of replacement demand forecasting models are analyzed and practical guidelines for the application of the models are suggested when life distribution data or adoption data are not available.

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Long Term Forecastig for Durable Goods by Cross Country Analysis Using Growth Curve (성장곡선을 이용한 횡단면 분석에 의한 내구재의 장기유요예측모형)

  • 정규석
    • Journal of the Korean Operations Research and Management Science Society
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    • v.10 no.1
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    • pp.65-78
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    • 1985
  • In this paper, the approach getting a total demand by forecasting the new demand and the replacement demand separately and adding them is used for long term forecasting of durable goods. Cross country analysis using the income as an independent variable and S-shaped growth curve as a fitting model is developed as a method of forecasting new demand. To get the replacement demand the methods using the number of ownership and the replacement rate and the methods using the past demand and the distribution of the product life are proposed. And the theoretical explannation for product life cycle's diversity, which is the one of the major considerations in the long term forecasting, is attempted by the combination of the new demand and the replacement demand patterns. This is applicated the long term forecasting of Korean passenger cars.

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A Choice-Based Multi-Product Diffusion Model Incorporating Replacement Demand (대체수요를 고려한 선택관점의 다제품 확산모형)

  • Kim, Jeong-Il;Jeon, Deok-Bin
    • Proceedings of the Korean Operations and Management Science Society Conference
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    • 2006.11a
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    • pp.161-164
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    • 2006
  • The sales of consumer durables are composed of first time purchases and replacement purchases. Since the sales for most mature durable products are dominated by replacement sales, it is necessary to develop a model incorporating replacement component of sales in order to forecast total sales accurately. Several single product diffusion models incorporating replacement demand have been developed, but research addressing the multi-product diffusion models has not considered replacement sales. In this paper, we propose a model based on consumer choice behavior that simultaneously captures the diffusion and the replacement process for multi-product relationships. The proposed model enables the division of replacement sales into repurchase by previous users and transition purchase by users of different products. As a result, the model allows the partitioning of the total sales according to the customer groups (first-time buyers, repurchase buyers, and transition buyers), which allows companies to develop their production and marketing plans based on their customer mix. We apply the proposed model to the Korean automobile market, and compare the fitting and forecasting performance with other Bass-type multi-product models.

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Proposal of Domestic Road Bridge Deck Deterioration Models and Forecast of Replacement Demand (국내 도로교량 바닥판 열화모델 제안 및 교체 수요 예측)

  • Kim, Jin-Kwang;Jang, Il-Young
    • Journal of the Korea institute for structural maintenance and inspection
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    • v.21 no.4
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    • pp.61-68
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    • 2017
  • Bridge decks are members that rapidly deteriorated due to various environmental factors such as heavy vehicle and deicing salt, etc. As the lifespan of bridges built in Korea increases, it is expected that the demand for replacing the deteriorated bridge decks will increase. In other countries, Accelerated Bridge Construction technology using precast decks is already actively being used as a countermeasure for replacement demand of deteriorated bridge decks. In this study, bridge decks deterioration models are proposed by collecting and analysing the condition index data of domestic bridge decks. Also, the future replacement demands of deteriorated bridge decks in terms of replacement time and replacement scale are predicted.

ABRN:An Adaptive Buffer Replacement for On-Demand Multimedia Database Service Systems (ABRN:주문형 멀티미디어 데이터 베이스 서비스 시스템을 위한 버퍼 교체 알고리즘)

  • Jeong, Gwang-Cheol;Park, Ung-Gyu
    • The Transactions of the Korea Information Processing Society
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    • v.3 no.7
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    • pp.1669-1679
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    • 1996
  • In this paper, we address the problem of how to replace huffers in multimedia database systems with time-varying skewed data access. The access pattern in the multimedia database system to support audio-on-demand and video-on-demand services is generally skewed with a few popular objects. In addition the access pattem of the skewed objects has a time-varying property. In such situations, our analysis indicates that conventional LRU(least Recently Used) and LFU(Least Frequently Used) schemes for buffer replacement algorithm(ABRN:Adaptive Buffer Replacement using Neural suited. We propose a new buffer replacement algorithm(ABRN:Adaptive Buffer Replacement using Neural Networks)using a neural network for multimedia database systems with time-varying skewed data access. The major role of our neural network classifies multimedia objects into two classes:a hot set frequently accessed with great popularity and a cold set randomly accessed with low populsrity. For the classification, the inter-arrival time values of sample objects are employed to train the neural network.Our algorithm partitions buffers into two regions to combine the best roperties of LRU and LFU.One region, which contains the 핫셋 objects, is managed by LFU replacement and the other region , which contains the cold set objects , is managed by LRUreplacement.We performed simulation experiments in an actual environment with time-varying skewed data accsee to compare our algorithm to LRU, LFU, and LRU-k which is a variation of LRU. Simulation resuults indicate that our proposed algorthm provides better performance as compared to the other algorithms. Good performance of the neural network-based replacement scheme means that this new approach can be also suited as an alternative to the existing page replacement and prefetching algorithms in virtual memory systems.

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User Interface Design for Life Cycle Cost Estimation System (LCC 산정 시스템의 사용자인터페이스 설계)

  • Yang, Hoe-Ryeong;Shin, Han-Woo;Kim, Tae-Hui
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Building Construction Conference
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    • 2012.05a
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    • pp.149-150
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    • 2012
  • According to the increase of demand of the deteriorated building. The interest of the building's maintenance is continually increased, so studies about how to increase building's stability & prolonged life span are increased. This study's purpose is to maintain building's function, so we suggest a protocol type system of UI to estimate reasonable planning of demand of repair & replacement and to distribute budget.

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Study on Demand Estimation of Agricultural Machinery by Using Logistic Curve Function and Markov Chain Model (로지스틱함수법 및 Markov 전이모형법을 이용한 농업기계의 수요예측에 관한 연구)

  • Yun Y. D.
    • Journal of Biosystems Engineering
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    • v.29 no.5 s.106
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    • pp.441-450
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    • 2004
  • This study was performed to estimate mid and long term demands of a tractor, a rice transplanter, a combine and a grain dryer by using logistic curve function and Markov chain model. Field survey was done to decide some parameters far logistic curve function and Markov chain model. Ceiling values of tractor and combine fer logistic curve function analysis were 209,280 and 85,607 respectively. Based on logistic curve function analysis, total number of tractors increased slightly during the period analysed. New demand for combine was found to be zero. Markov chain analysis was carried out with 2 scenarios. With the scenario 1(rice price $10\%$ down and current supporting policy by government), new demand for tractor was decreased gradually up to 700 unit in the year 2012. For combine, new demand was zero. Regardless of scenarios, the replacement demand was increased slightly after 2003. After then, the replacement demand is decreased after the certain time. Two analysis of logistic owe function and Markov chain model showed the similar trend in increase and decrease for total number of tractors and combines. However, the difference in numbers of tractors and combines between the results from 2 analysis got bigger as the time passed.

A study on the development strategy of home meal replacement in relation to the consumption trends (소비 트렌드에 따른 가정간편식 개발 전략)

  • Hong, Wan-Soo
    • Food Science and Industry
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    • v.50 no.3
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    • pp.2-32
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    • 2017
  • Due to the increasing demand for convenience and simplicity, Home Meal Replacement (HMR) has become a key trend in the food service industry. This study researched the current consumer trend and analyzed the national and international HMR product trend, aiming to find useful insights for the field. Results showed that in order to expand the HMR market demand, it is possible to consider diversifying the product category by making customized premium products, such as products for the elderly, infants, patients, and sports players, or products with enhanced nutritional fortification. From the industrial aspect, centralization through Central Kitchen (CK) and implementation of the scientific and advanced ISO and HACCP system are necessary. Lastly, to develop high value-added HMR products, it is deemed essential to utilize the so-called 'food tech', the technology which integrates core technologies of the fourth industrial revolution into the food industry.

Cache Optimization on Hot-Point Proxy Caching Using Weighted-Rank Cache Replacement Policy

  • Ponnusamy, S.P.;Karthikeyan, E.
    • ETRI Journal
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    • v.35 no.4
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    • pp.687-696
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    • 2013
  • The development of proxy caching is essential in the area of video-on-demand (VoD) to meet users' expectations. VoD requires high bandwidth and creates high traffic due to the nature of media. Many researchers have developed proxy caching models to reduce bandwidth consumption and traffic. Proxy caching keeps part of a media object to meet the viewing expectations of users without delay and provides interactive playback. If the caching is done continuously, the entire cache space will be exhausted at one stage. Hence, the proxy server must apply cache replacement policies to replace existing objects and allocate the cache space for the incoming objects. Researchers have developed many cache replacement policies by considering several parameters, such as recency, access frequency, cost of retrieval, and size of the object. In this paper, the Weighted-Rank Cache replacement Policy (WRCP) is proposed. This policy uses such parameters as access frequency, aging, and mean access gap ratio and such functions as size and cost of retrieval. The WRCP applies our previously developed proxy caching model, Hot-Point Proxy, at four levels of replacement, depending on the cache requirement. Simulation results show that the WRCP outperforms our earlier model, the Dual Cache Replacement Policy.

Aortic valve Replacement Concomitant with Aorto-Coronary Bypass Surgery -One case report- (관상동맥 우회술을 병행한 대동맥판막 치환술 치험 1례)

  • 정언섭
    • Journal of Chest Surgery
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    • v.23 no.3
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    • pp.514-521
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    • 1990
  • Patient with aortic valvular disease have increased left ventricular work and greater myocardial oxygen demand, which may aggravate the effect of concomitant coronary artery disease. Thus in patient who repair aortic valve replacement, concomitant aortocoronary bypass surgery is often performed when angiographically significant coronary artery disease is present. This approach is supported by reports that revascularization does not increase operative risk when associated coronary artery disease is present and significantly reduce the occurrence of late sudden death. Recently we have experienced one case of aortic valve replacement concomitant with aorta-coronary bypass surgery. The patient was 56 year-old male and admitted with complaint of anterior chest pain especially during his exercise. He was diagnosed as aortic valve stenosis and regurgitation [GIII] with proximal right main coronary artery occlusion We performed aortic valve replacement with aorta coronary bypass surgery by use of saphenous vein. Post operative course was uneventful and chest pain was relieved. Post operative coronary angiogram disclosed good patency of grafted vessel.

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