Application of Convolution Neural Network to Flare Forecasting using solar full disk images

In this study we apply Convolution Neural Network(CNN) to solar flare occurrence prediction with various parameter options using the 00:00 UT MDI images from 1996 to 2010 (total 4962 images). We assume that only X, M and C class flares correspond to "flare occurrence" and the others to "non-flare". We have attempted to look for the best options for the models with two CNN pre-trained models (AlexNet and GoogLeNet), by modifying training images and changing hyper parameters. Our major results from this study are as follows. First, the flare occurrence predictions are relatively good with about 80 % accuracies. Second, both flare prediction models based on AlexNet and GoogLeNet have similar results but AlexNet is faster than GoogLeNet. Third, modifying the training images to reduce the projection effect is not effective. Fourth, skill scores of our flare occurrence model are mostly better than those of the previous models.