비례위험모형에서 비례성 가정에 대한 검정: 도산모형에의 응용

The previous quantitative bankruptcy prediction models cannot include time dimension. To overcome this limit, various dynamic models using survival analysis are developed recently. This paper emphasizes that the proportionality assumption must be adapted with caution when the Cox's proportional hazard model is used to explain bankruptcy. It is shown that a non-proportional hazard model including a change point model is a proper alternative, when the proportionality assumption is violated by the change of macroeconomic environment, such as the financial crisis in 1997.