State Transition Diagram을 이용한 신규 정보통신 서비스의 대체/보완관계 분석: 와이브로(WiBro) 서비스를 중심으로

When new services are introduced, one of the drivers for market performance of them is the interactions among existing and new services. They are characterized by the substitution or complementary effects among existing and new service or the cannibalization of existing services by new services. This paper analyzes these issues in the telecommunications service industry context. To analyze them, a simple graphical tool or State Transition Diagram(STD) is developed and used. The diagram helps to clearly represent and explain the substitution, complement and cannibalization impact. Then, using the face-to-face survey of 1,200 people, a new wireless internet access service or WiBro is analyzed to identify the substitution/complement and cannibalization impacts in relation with the other competing services. Additionally, the important factors explaining customer subscription and substitution behavior are identified. The analysis results indicate that males, students or on-line game users are more likely to subscribe WiBro. Also, among the potential WiBro subscribers, customers who are less satisfied with the existing fixed line broadband internet access services are more likely to stop subscribing the fixed line service, which implies substitution by a new service. Additionally, this raises the issue of cannibalization if the existing and new services are provided by the same company. In fact we find the cannibalization effect is more serious for the cost sensitive group. We believe that our tool, approach, analysis results and their implications would be very helpful to devise a winning strategy for the new services in the highly uncertain telecommunications business environment.