• 무역학회지
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• 제42권2호
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• pp.277-296
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• 2017

전 세계 수출입 물동량 중 95% 이상이 해상 수송되고 있다. 이처럼 세계 무역에서 해상 수송이 차지하는 비중이 매우 높다는 점에 주목하여, 본 연구는 해상 물동량과 세계 경제(세계 GDP) 간의 회귀분석을 수행함으로써 상관관계를 추정하였다. 즉, 패널 데이터 분석과 확률효과 모형 분석을 통해 품목별 해상 물동량이 세계 경제 성장에 어떤 영향을 미치는지 실증 분석하였다. 분석 과정에서 해상 물동량을 10개 품목별로 분류하고, 해당 품목의 무역량 변화에 따라 세계 GDP가 얼마만큼 영향을 받는지 추정하였다. 이와 더불어 그랜저 인과성 검정을 수행하여 해상 물동량과 세계 GDP 변수 간의 선후 관계를 검증하고, LR(Likelihood ratio) 검정을 실시하여 확률효과 모형을 통해 회귀분석 하였다. 본 연구의 분석 결과는 정부의 무역 관련 정책을 수립하는 데 많은 도움을 줄 것으로 기대된다.

• 무역상무연구
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• 제61권
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• pp.327-358
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• 2014

During the past decade after entering the World Trade Organization (WTO), China has quickened its integration into the global economy while its foreign trade has been further invigorated. On the 10th anniversary of China's accession to the WTO, the Chinese government issues White Paper to give a comprehensive introduction to China's foreign trade development. Through this paper, the Chinese government introduces I. Historic Progress in China's Foreign Trade II. Reform of and Improvements to China's Foreign Trade System III. The Development of China's Foreign Trade Contributes to the World Economy IV. Promoting Basically Balanced Growth of Foreign Trade V. Constructing All-round Economic and Trade Partnerships with Mutually Beneficial Cooperation VI. Realizing Sustainable Development of Foreign Trade. At present, the underlying impact of the international financial crisis, the protracted, arduous and complicated nature of the world economic recovery is manifesting itself, and the global economic structure and trade layout face in-depth readjustment. China will make new adjustments to its foreign trade, in an effort to turn foreign trade from scale expansion to quality and profit improvement, and from mainly relying on its low-cost advantage to enhancing its comprehensive competitive edge, thereby turning China from a big trading country to a strong trading power. China's foreign trade is still hampered by many uncertainties and is bound to meet new difficulties and challenges. During the 12th Five-year Plan period China will open itself wider to the outside world as a driver for further reform, development and innovation, make full use of its advantages, strengthen international cooperation in all respects. And at the same time China integrate itself into the world economy on a wider scale and at a higher level. China is willing to work with its trading partners to cope with the various challenges facing the world economy and trade, and promote its foreign trade to realize a more balanced, coordinated and sustainable development, and share prosperity and mutually beneficial results with its trading partners.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• 제3권3호
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• pp.39-55
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• 2016

The rapid expansion of China's trade surplus since the mid-eighties and picking up until the onset of 2008-09 global financial crisis has been a key development in the world economy. While growing trade surplus of China has been viewed with cynicism borne out of an undervalued Yuan and for having being a member of WTO since 2001, many others argue that China's trade surplus reflect changes in China's economic and trade structure and associated shifts in its role within regional and global production chains. We address this issue by analyzing: (i) China's growing and changing trade structure as well as changing structure of trade surplus with the rest of the world, USA, Europe, Japan and rest of Asia, (ii) China's revealed comparative advantage (RCA) with the rest of the world, and (iii) how China's trade policies resulted into a shift in China's trade structure. We find that, not only China has made significant inroads in the world trade since its admission to WTO, but also there has been a noticeable shift in China's trade structure with specialization in high-end technology industries wherein China's exports aided by a well calibrated FDI policy.

• 무역학회지
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• 제47권3호
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• pp.75-92
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• 2022

This study aims to analyze the International trade network of Water transport service using Social Network Analysis for defining the status of Korean Water transport industry. This study use World Input-Output Table of Asian Development Bank from 2000 to 2020 and build the International trade matrix of Water transport service from that. Therefore, this study analyze Out-degree centrality, In-degree centrality and betweenness centrality of Korea and other main countries in the matrix of World Water transport industry. As a result, Korea rank above 10th in the all centralities and the total output also rank 8th in the world, therefore, this study show the importance of Korean Water transport industry in the world. However, Singapore has the highest centrality in the world, even though China has the largest Total output among 63 countries.

• 정보학연구
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• 제3권3호
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• pp.39-55
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• 2000

인터넷 무역은 새로운 형태의 거래로서, 인터넷을 이용하여 제품과 서비스의 판매와 광고가 이루어지며 급속하게 확장되어 가고 있다. 이러한 상황속에서 우리나라는 세계무역시장의 중심적인 역할과 위치로 자리잡아야 할 것이며, 새로운 무역환경 변화에 우리는 직면하고 있는 것이다. 그래서, 첫째로 제도와 법률적인 면, 둘째, 인터넷 무역의 대금결제 부분, 셋째 인터넷 무역의 활성화에 대한 물리적인 부분인 소위 인프라 구축에 관해서 정부의 초고속 정보통신 네트워크 수립계획이 분명하게 있어야 할 것 이다. 끝으로 정부와 산업체간의 공동 협력과 참가는 급속하게 변화하는 새로운 무역 경항속에서 인터넷 무역은 세계무역시장에서 우리의 지위를 상당히 높힐 것으로 기대되어 진다.

• East Asian Economic Review
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• 제20권3호
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• pp.339-363
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• 2016

This paper analyzes why the global financial crisis in 2008 severely affected Asia's trade. Asia has been suffering from the falls in export demand from developed countries. However the abrupt trade declines in Asia are not fully explained by reactions to this as in previous experiences. The question is why the financial crisis in 2008 brought about the abrupt and deep collapse in world trade, while other world-wide recessions had more moderate effects on world trade. This paper shows that the dynamic relationship between trade and trade finance is one important factor in explaining this question. This paper also applies the Granger (causality) test to uncover different relationships in the developed and developing economies and show different results for different countries in Asia. We employ a Markov-Switching FAVAR (Factor Augmented VAR) to show that global liquidity shocks are important factors in explaining the huge and abrupt trade drops in Asia.

• East Asian Economic Review
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• 제22권4호
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• pp.427-465
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• 2018

East Asia, for long the epitome of successful engagement in trade, faces serious challenges: technological change that may threaten the very model of labor intensive industrialization and a backlash against globalization that may reduce access to important markets. The analysis in this article suggests that how East Asia copes with these global challenges will depend on how it addresses three more proximate national and regional challenges. The first is the emergence of China as a global trade giant, which is fundamentally altering the trading patterns and opportunities of its neighbors. The second is the asymmetric implementation of national reform - in goods trade and investment versus services - which is affecting the evolution of comparative advantage and productivity in each country. The third is the divergence between the relatively shallow and fragmented agreements that regulate the region's trade and investment and the growing importance of regional and global value chains as crucial drivers of productivity growth.

• Journal of Korea Trade
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• 제23권8호
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• pp.1-26
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• 2019

Purpose - This paper investigates the recent trade collapse, recovery, and prolonged slowdown to shed light on the discussions about whether the current slowdown is structural or cyclical. I examine structural, cyclical, and heterogeneous aspects of the recent trade trends using detailed statistics of a small open economy, South Korea, whose economic success and growth have been heavily dependent on exports. Design/methodology - I use both aggregated and disaggregated trade statistics of South Korea. I apply the following methodologies: 1) I decompose the trade growth into the extensive and the intensive margin and observe the effect of prices over time. 2) I estimate the trade-income elasticities focusing on the world's import demand, separately for goods from the world and from Korea. 3) I compare the drop in goods exports in slowdown and trade collapse, which are the two unusual periods in the recent history when world trade has substantially dropped altogether. Findings - I show that while the last drop of trade after 2015 has cyclical aspects, there is evidence that the continued slowdown from 2012 is structural: 1) the so-called 'China factor' is found in the analysis of trade-income elasticity of the world and China for imports from Korea. 2) The bilateral trade barriers between Korea and its principal trading partners are universally tightening. 3) Firm sizes, destination countries, and the mode of transactions affect disaggregated trade flows during the slowdown periods. Originality/value - This paper contributes to the debate regarding whether the current trade slowdown is structural or cyclical. I provide two concrete evidence that the export drop in 2015 stems from low oil prices: one is the divergence of Korean export value index from its export quantity index, which started in late 2014 when oil prices plunged. I also contribute to the literature by providing evidence that Korea's trade barriers with important trading partners are steadily increasing since 2012 as the protectionist measures toward Korea's export products are steeply increasing after the global financial crisis.

• East Asian Economic Review
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• 제22권3호
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• pp.275-306
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• 2018

Amid a general rise in protectionism and a trade war between the world's two largest economies, this paper analyzes changes in gains from trade for the world over a decade marked by rapid global economic integration preceding the global financial crisis of 2007-08. It employs state-of-the-art quantitative trade models based on the gravity equation to estimate autarky gains from trade, as well as a recently introduced ANOVA-type structural estimation of the gravity equation to obtain trade costs free of residual trade cost bias. Between 1995 and 2006, the cost of moving to autarky increased by about 45% on average. A decomposition exercise suggests most of the increase in autarky gains from trade on average was due to increases in import shares in total spending, with a limited role for reallocations of spending across sectors with varied trade elasticities. Changes in trade costs between 1995 and 2006 are found to have increased autarky gains from trade, as measured in 2006, by up to 100%.

• 통상정보연구
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• 제11권3호
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• pp.25-45
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• 2009

The e-Trade environment has enabled the complex trade processes to be automated using e-Trade information systems, which had been manually processed through many trade-related parties in the past. Korea has completed the development of the most advanced e-Trade platform called "u-Trade Hub," which can process automatically all the trade-related activities from marketing to payment. It is anticipated for the world trade environment to have more FTAs throughout the world and this will complicate the trade processes more and more in the future. This means the constant cost-bearing updates of the e-Trade environment to adapt the process changes brought by new FTAs with other countries. In this paper, we propose the systematic approach to easily as well as less costly adapt the possible trade process changes resulted from the future FTAs by adopting a rule base management system. The prototype system to test the applicability of the proposed approach is developed using Win-Prolog 4.8 environment.