• Title/Summary/Keyword: wind probability density

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Prediction of Wind Damage Risk based on Estimation of Probability Distribution of Daily Maximum Wind Speed (일 최대풍속의 추정확률분포에 의한 농작물 강풍 피해 위험도 판정 방법)

  • Kim, Soo-ock
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.19 no.3
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    • pp.130-139
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    • 2017
  • The crop damage caused by strong wind was predicted using the wind speed data available from Korean Meteorological Administration (KMA). Wind speed data measured at 19 automatic weather stations in 2012 were compared with wind data available from the KMA's digital forecast. Linear regression equations were derived using the maximum value of wind speed measurements for the three-hour period prior to a given hour and the digital forecasts at the three-hour interval. Estimates of daily maximum wind speed were obtained from the regression equation finding the greatest value among the maximum wind speed at the three-hour interval. The estimation error for the daily maximum wind speed was expressed using normal distribution and Weibull distribution probability density function. The daily maximum wind speed was compared with the critical wind speed that could cause crop damage to determine the level of stages for wind damage, e.g., "watch" or "warning." Spatial interpolation of the regression coefficient for the maximum wind speed, the standard deviation of the estimation error at the automated weather stations, the parameters of Weibull distribution was performed. These interpolated values at the four synoptic weather stations including Suncheon, Namwon, Imsil, and Jangsu were used to estimate the daily maximum wind speed in 2012. The wind damage risk was determined using the critical wind speed of 10m/s under the assumption that the fruit of a pear variety Mansamgil would begin to drop at 10 m/s. The results indicated that the Weibull distribution was more effective than the normal distribution for the estimation error probability distribution for assessing wind damage risk.

Fatigue wind load spectrum construction based on integration of turbulent wind model and measured data for long-span metal roof

  • Liman Yang;Cong Ye;Xu Yang;Xueyao Yang;Jian-ge Kou
    • Wind and Structures
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    • v.36 no.2
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    • pp.121-131
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    • 2023
  • Aiming at the problem that fatigue characteristics of metal roof rely on local physical tests and lacks the cyclic load sequence matching with regional climate, this paper proposed a method of constructing the fatigue load spectrum based on integration of wind load model, measured data of long-span metal roof and climate statistical data. According to the turbulence characteristics of wind, the wind load model is established from the aspects of turbulence intensity, power spectral density and wind pressure coefficient. Considering the influence of roof configuration on wind pressure distribution, the parameters are modified through fusing the measured data with least squares method to approximate the actual wind pressure load of the roof system. Furthermore, with regards to the wind climate characteristics of building location, Weibull model is adopted to analyze the regional meteorological data to obtain the probability density distribution of wind velocity used for calculating wind load, so as to establish the cyclic wind load sequence with the attributes of regional climate and building configuration. Finally, taking a workshop's metal roof as an example, the wind load spectrum is constructed according to this method, and the fatigue simulation and residual life prediction are implemented based on the experimental data. The forecasting result is lightly higher than the design standards, consistent with general principles of its conservative safety design scale, which shows that the presented method is validated for the fatigue characteristics study and health assessment of metal roof.

Measurement and Analysis of Wind Energy Potential in Kokunsando of Saemankeum (새만금 고군산군도의 풍자원 측정 및 분석)

  • Shim, Ae-Ri;Choi, Yeon-Sung;Lee, Jang-Ho
    • New & Renewable Energy
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    • v.7 no.2
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    • pp.51-58
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    • 2011
  • Saemankeum is well known for its high speed wind, and it is known that the blueprint of a future city around Saemankeum, including new industrial complex, has been planned. As a result, large-scale offshore wind farm, on the basis of the measurement of wind resource for a long time, can be considered, so that generated electricity can be used to meet the energy demand near the wind farm. Wind speed in Kokunsando of Saemankeum is measured and analyzed with its statistical distribution and wind directions. The probability of wind power resource over Kokunsando of Saemangeum is reviewed with the measured data in one island of Kokunsando. According to measured data, the shape and scale factor of Weibull distribution of wind speed are obtained, and then power density is analyzed as well. Through this study, it is clear that the Saemangeum area has a fluent and abundant wind power source to develop the wind farm in Korea.

The impact of artificial discrete simulation of wind field on vehicle running performance

  • Wu, Mengxue;Li, Yongle;Chen, Ning
    • Wind and Structures
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    • v.20 no.2
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    • pp.169-189
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    • 2015
  • To investigate the effects of "sudden change" of wind fluctuations on vehicle running performance, which is caused by the artificial discrete simulation of wind field, a three-dimensional vehicle model is set up with multi-body dynamics theory and the vehicle dynamic responses in crosswind conditions are obtained in time domain. Based on Hilbert Huang Transform, the effects of simulation separations on time-frequency characteristics of wind field are discussed. In addition, the probability density distribution of "sudden change" of wind fluctuations is displayed, addressing the effects of simulation separation, mean wind speed and vehicle speed on the "sudden change" of wind fluctuations. The "sudden change" of vehicle dynamic responses, which is due to the discontinuity of wind fluctuations on moving vehicle, is also analyzed. With Principal Component Analysis, the comprehensive evaluation of vehicle running performance in crosswind conditions at different simulation separations of wind field is investigated. The results demonstrate that the artificial discrete simulation of wind field often causes "sudden change" in the wind fluctuations and the corresponding vehicle dynamic responses are noticeably affected. It provides a theoretical foundation for the choice of a suitable simulation separation of wind field in engineering application.

Extreme and Freak Wave Characteristics in the Coastal Writers of Korean Peninsula (한국 연안의 극히 파랑환경과 Freak Wave의 특성에 관한 연구)

  • 류청로;윤홍주
    • Journal of Environmental Science International
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    • v.2 no.3
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    • pp.235-243
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    • 1993
  • Extreme environments and freak wave characteristics in the coastal waters of Korean Peninsula are analyzed using the observed wave data. Freak wave has been intensely emphasized as an important environmental force parameter in several recent research works. However, the mechanism and occurrence probability of freak wave are not clarified. The aims of this study we: to summarize the distribution of extreme environment for wind waves, and to find occurrence probability of freak wave in the coastal waters of Korean Peninsula. These extreme sea conditions are discussed by applying extreme value analysis method, and the statistic characteristics are summarized which can be used to the design and analysis of coastal structures. The mechanism and the occurrence probability of freak wave are also discussed in detail using wave parameters in considered with wave deformation in the coastal waters. Key Words : extreme wave, freak wave, extreme analysis, design wave, probability density.

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Analysis of aerodynamic characteristics of 2 MW horizontal axis large wind turbine

  • Ilhan, Akin;Bilgili, Mehmet;Sahin, Besir
    • Wind and Structures
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    • v.27 no.3
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    • pp.187-197
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    • 2018
  • In this study, aerodynamic characteristics of a horizontal axis wind turbine (HAWT) were evaluated and discussed in terms of measured data in existing onshore wind farm. Five wind turbines (T1, T2, T3, T4 and T5) were selected, and hub-height wind speed, $U_D$, wind turbine power output, P and turbine rotational speed, ${\Omega}$ data measured from these turbines were used for evaluation. In order to obtain characteristics of axial flow induction factor, a, power coefficient, $C_p$, thrust force coefficient, $C_T$, thrust force, T and tangential flow induction factor, a', Blade Element Momentum (BEM) theory was used. According to the results obtained, during a year, probability density of turbines at a rotational speed of 16.1 rpm was determined as approximately 45%. Optimum tip speed ratio was calculated to be 7.12 for most efficient wind turbine. Maximum $C_p$ was found to be 30% corresponding to this tip speed ratio.

SHM-based probabilistic representation of wind properties: Bayesian inference and model optimization

  • Ye, X.W.;Yuan, L.;Xi, P.S.;Liu, H.
    • Smart Structures and Systems
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    • v.21 no.5
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    • pp.601-609
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    • 2018
  • The estimated probabilistic model of wind data based on the conventional approach may have high discrepancy compared with the true distribution because of the uncertainty caused by the instrument error and limited monitoring data. A sequential quadratic programming (SQP) algorithm-based finite mixture modeling method has been developed in the companion paper and is conducted to formulate the joint probability density function (PDF) of wind speed and direction using the wind monitoring data of the investigated bridge. The established bivariate model of wind speed and direction only represents the features of available wind monitoring data. To characterize the stochastic properties of the wind parameters with the subsequent wind monitoring data, in this study, Bayesian inference approach considering the uncertainty is proposed to update the wind parameters in the bivariate probabilistic model. The slice sampling algorithm of Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method is applied to establish the multi-dimensional and complex posterior distribution which is analytically intractable. The numerical simulation examples for univariate and bivariate models are carried out to verify the effectiveness of the proposed method. In addition, the proposed Bayesian inference approach is used to update and optimize the parameters in the bivariate model using the wind monitoring data from the investigated bridge. The results indicate that the proposed Bayesian inference approach is feasible and can be employed to predict the bivariate distribution of wind speed and direction with limited monitoring data.

Modelling the dispersion of a tracer gas in the wake of an isolated low-rise building

  • Quinn, A.D.;Wilson, M.;Reynolds, A.M.;Couling, S.B.;Hoxey, R.P.
    • Wind and Structures
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    • v.4 no.1
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    • pp.31-44
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    • 2001
  • Mean concentrations of ammonia gas released as a tracer from an isolated low-rise building have been measured and predicted. Predictions were calculated using computational fluid dynamics (CFD) and two dispersion models: a diffusion model and a Lagrangian particle tracking technique. Explicit account was taken of the natural variation of wind direction by a technique based on the weighted summation of individual steady state wind direction results according to the probability density function of the wind direction. The results indicated that at distances >3 building heights downstream the weighted predictions from either model are satisfactory but that in the near wake the diffusion model is less successful. Weighted solutions give significantly improved predictions over unweighted results. Lack of plume spread is identified as the main cause of inaccuracies in predictions and this is linked to inadequate resolution of flow features and mixing in the CFD model. Further work on non-steady state simulation of wake flows for dispersion studies is recommended.

The nonlinear galloping of iced transmission conductor under uniform and turbulence wind

  • Liu, Zhonghua;Ding, Chenhui;Qin, Jian;Lei, Ying
    • Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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    • v.75 no.4
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    • pp.465-475
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    • 2020
  • The analytical approach for stability and response of iced conductor under uniform wind or turbulent wind is presented in this study. A nonlinear dynamic model is established to describe the motion of iced conductor galloping. In the case of uniform wind, the stability condition is derived by analyzing the eigenvalue associated with linearized matrix; The first order and second order approximation of galloping amplitude are obtained using multi-scale method. However, real wind has random characteristics essentially. To accurately evaluate the performance of the galloping iced conductor, turbulence wind should be described by random processes. In the case of turbulence wind, the Lyapunov exponent is conducted to judge the stability condition; The probability density of displacement is obtained by using the path integral method to predict galloping amplitude. An example is proposed to verify the effectiveness of the previous methods. It is shown that the fluctuating component of wind has little influence on the stability of iced conductor, but it can increase galloping amplitude. The analytical results on stability and response are also verified by numerical time stepping method.

Evaluating the Output of Small-size Wind Power Generators Using Weibull Data (와이블데이터를 이용한 소형풍력발전기 출력에 대한 평가)

  • You, Ki-Pyo;Kim, Young-Moon
    • Journal of the Korean Solar Energy Society
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    • v.32 no.2
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    • pp.95-104
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    • 2012
  • This study purposed to predict wind energy for small size wind power generators at 50m above the ground in each area using mean wind speed data for 10 minutes collected from 2001 to 2011 by meteorological data in large cities having over 60% of 15 story (50m) or higher apartments including Seoul, Daejeon, Gwangju and Daegu representing the inland region, and Busan, Incheon and Ulsan representing the coastal region. In the results of analysis, we confirmed close agree ment between observatory weather data and probability density distribution obtained using Weibull's parameters, and this suggests that Weibull's parameter is applicable to the estimation of wind energy. Hourly output energy using the mean wind speed for 10 minutes and output energy obtained from Weibull's parameter showed an error less than 5%, and thus it was found that wind energy can be evaluated using Weibull's modulus.