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Sensitivity analysis of the FAO Penman-Monteith reference evapotranspiration model (FAO Penman-Monteith 기준증발산식 민감도 분석)

  • Rim, Chang-Soo
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.56 no.4
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    • pp.285-299
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    • 2023
  • Estimating the evapotranspiration is very important factor for effective water resources management, and FAO Penman-Monteith (FAO P-M) model has been applied for reference evapotranspiration estimation by many researchers. However, because various input data are required for the application of FAO P-M model, understanding the effect of each input data on FAO P-M model is necessary. Therefore, in this study, for 56 study stations located in South Korea, the effects of 8 meteorological factors (maximum and minimum temperature, wind speed, relative humidity, solar radiation, vapor pressure deficit, net radiation, ground heat flux), energy and aerodynamic terms of FAO P-M model, and elevation on FAO P-M reference evapotranspiration (RET) estimation were analyzed. The relative sensitivity analysis was performed to determine how 10% increment of each specific independent variable affects a reference evapotranspiration under given set of condition that other independent variables are unchanged. Furthermore, to select the 5 representative stations and perform the monthly relative sensitivity analysis for those stations, 56 study stations were classified into 5 clusters using cluster analysis. The study results showed that net radiation was turned out to be the most sensitive factor in 8 meteorological factors for 56 study stations. The next most sensitive factor was relative humidity, solar radiation, maximum temperature, vapor pressure deficit and wind speed, followed by minimum temperature in order. Ground heat flux was the least sensitive factor. In case of ground surface condition, elevation showed very low positive relative sensitivity. Relativity sensitivities of energy and aerodynamic terms of FAO P-M model were 0.707 for energy term and 0.293 for aerodynamic term respectively, indicating that energy term was more contributable than aerodynamic term for reference evapotranspiration. The monthly relative sensitivities of meteorological factors showed the seasonal effects, and also the relative sensitivity of elevation showed different pattern each other among study stations. Therefore, for the application of FAO P-M model, the seasonal and regional sensitivity differences of each input variable should be considered.

The NCAM Land-Atmosphere Modeling Package (LAMP) Version 1: Implementation and Evaluation (국가농림기상센터 지면대기모델링패키지(NCAM-LAMP) 버전 1: 구축 및 평가)

  • Lee, Seung-Jae;Song, Jiae;Kim, Yu-Jung
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.18 no.4
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    • pp.307-319
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    • 2016
  • A Land-Atmosphere Modeling Package (LAMP) for supporting agricultural and forest management was developed at the National Center for AgroMeteorology (NCAM). The package is comprised of two components; one is the Weather Research and Forecasting modeling system (WRF) coupled with Noah-Multiparameterization options (Noah-MP) Land Surface Model (LSM) and the other is an offline one-dimensional LSM. The objective of this paper is to briefly describe the two components of the NCAM-LAMP and to evaluate their initial performance. The coupled WRF/Noah-MP system is configured with a parent domain over East Asia and three nested domains with a finest horizontal grid size of 810 m. The innermost domain covers two Gwangneung deciduous and coniferous KoFlux sites (GDK and GCK). The model is integrated for about 8 days with the initial and boundary conditions taken from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Final Analysis (FNL) data. The verification variables are 2-m air temperature, 10-m wind, 2-m humidity, and surface precipitation for the WRF/Noah-MP coupled system. Skill scores are calculated for each domain and two dynamic vegetation options using the difference between the observed data from the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) and the simulated data from the WRF/Noah-MP coupled system. The accuracy of precipitation simulation is examined using a contingency table that is made up of the Probability of Detection (POD) and the Equitable Threat Score (ETS). The standalone LSM simulation is conducted for one year with the original settings and is compared with the KoFlux site observation for net radiation, sensible heat flux, latent heat flux, and soil moisture variables. According to results, the innermost domain (810 m resolution) among all domains showed the minimum root mean square error for 2-m air temperature, 10-m wind, and 2-m humidity. Turning on the dynamic vegetation had a tendency of reducing 10-m wind simulation errors in all domains. The first nested domain (7,290 m resolution) showed the highest precipitation score, but showed little advantage compared with using the dynamic vegetation. On the other hand, the offline one-dimensional Noah-MP LSM simulation captured the site observed pattern and magnitude of radiative fluxes and soil moisture, and it left room for further improvement through supplementing the model input of leaf area index and finding a proper combination of model physics.

Evaluation of Meteorological Elements Used for Reference Evapotranspiration Calculation of FAO Penman-Monteith Model (FAO Penman-Monteith 모형의 증발산량 산정에 이용되는 기상요소의 평가)

  • Hur, Seung-Oh;Jung, Kang-Ho;Ha, Sang-Keun;Kim, Jeong-Gyu
    • Korean Journal of Soil Science and Fertilizer
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    • v.39 no.5
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    • pp.274-279
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    • 2006
  • The exact estimation of crop evapotranspiration containing reference or potential evapotranspiration is necessary for decision of crop water requirements. This study was carried out for the evaluation and application of various meteorological elements used for the calculation of reference evapotranspiration (RET) by FAO Penman-Monteith (PM) model. Meteorological elements including temperature, net radiation, soil heat flux, albedo, relative humidity, wind speed measured by meteorological instruments are required for RET calculation by FAO PM model. The average of albedo measured for crop growing period was 0.20, ranging from 0.12 to 0.23, and was slightly lower than 0.23. Determinant coefficients by measured albedo and green grass albedo were 0.97, 0.95 and standard errors were 0.74, 0.80 respectively. Usefulness of deductive regression models was admitted. To assess an influence of soil heat flux (G) on FAO PM, RET with G=0 was compared with RETs using G at 5cm soil depth ($G_{5cm}$) and G at surface ($G_{0cm}$). As the results, RET estimated by G=0 was well agreed with RET calculated by measured G. Therefore, estimated net radiation, G=0 and albedo of green grass could be used for RET calculation by FAO PM.

A study on design and performance test of fire door with high endurance performance in submarine tunnel (고내구성능을 갖는 해저터널 방화문 설계방안 및 성능시험 연구)

  • Park, Sang-Heon;Hwang, Ju-Hwan;Choi, Young-Hwan;An, Sung-Joo;Yoo, Yong-Ho
    • Journal of Korean Tunnelling and Underground Space Association
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    • v.20 no.2
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    • pp.331-346
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    • 2018
  • In the tunnel of domestic high - speed railway, the main fire - fighting facility, fire - extinguishing passageway, is installed. However, due to the high pressure of the high - speed train, frequent breakage and maintenance are caused by strong shock and long - term vibration. In order to solve these problems, it is necessary to improve the fire door, but in Korea, it is installed by submitting a certificate by simple KS F 2296 performance test. At present, it is developed as a simple test certification by producing a real scale fireproof door without the theoretical examination in advance, so that a high cost for improvement is occurring in Korea. Therefore, through this study, structural analysis study which can preliminary structure review was carried out in order to design the refuge connection passage fire door and to improve the performance improvement. In order to secure the reliability of the result value, the official authentication test (KS F 2296) were compared.

Deceasing Trend of Summertime TC Frequency in Japan (여름철 일본에 영향을 주는 태풍빈도의 감소추세)

  • Choi, Jae-Won;Park, Ki-Jun;Lee, Kyungmi;Kim, Jeoung-Yun;Kim, Baek-Jo
    • Journal of Environmental Science International
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    • v.24 no.7
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    • pp.851-864
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    • 2015
  • This study analyzed the climate regime shift using statistical change-point analysis on the time-series tropical cyclone (TC) frequency that affected Japan in July to September. The result showed that there was a significant change in 1995 and since then, it showed a trend of rapidly decreasing frequency. To determine the reason for this, differences between 1995 to 2012 (9512) period and 1978 to 1994 (7894) period were analayzed. First, regarding TC genesis, TCs during the 9512 period showed a characteristic of genesis from the southeast quadrant of the tropical and subtropical western North Pacific and TCs during the 7894 period showed their genesis from the northwest quadrant. Regarding a TC track, TCs in the 7894 period had a strong trend of moving from the far east sea of the Philippines via the East China Sea to the mid-latitude region in East Asia while TCs in the 9512 period showed a trend of moving from the Philippines toward the southern part of China westward. Thus, TC intensity in the 7894 period, which can absorb sufficient energy from the sea as they moved a long distance over the sea, was stronger than that of 9512. Large-scale environments were analyzed to determine the cause of such difference in TC activity occurred between two periods. During the 9512 period, anomalous cold and dry anticyclones were developed strongly in the East Asia continent. As a result, Korea and Japan were affected by the anomalous northerlies thereby preventing TCs in this period from moving toward the mid-latitude region in East Asia. Instead, anomalous easterlies (anomalous trade wind) were developed in the tropical western Pacific so that a high passage frequency from the Philippine to the south China region along the anomalous steering flows was revealed. The characteristics of the anomalous cold and dry anticyclone developed in the East Asia continent were also confirmed by the analysis of air temperature, relative humidity and sensible heat net flux showing that most regions in East Asia had negative values.

Economic Analysis of Geothermal Energy and VMD Desalination Hybrid Process (지열에너지와 진공 막 증류법을 활용한 해수담수화 연계형 공정의 경제성 분석)

  • Park, Kiho;Kim, Jin Hyun;Kim, Hyuk Soo;Lee, Kwan-Young;Yang, Dae Ryook;Kim, Kyung Nam
    • Clean Technology
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    • v.20 no.1
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    • pp.13-21
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    • 2014
  • Because of the water scarcity caused by the increase of salinity in the underground water, seawater desalination stands out as one of the most promising solution. As there are so much energy costs in operating desalination plants, new hybrid process which is more effective should be researched. A geothermal VMD (vacuum membrane distillation) hybrid process is a competitive alternative for seawater desalination. Because geothermal energy has significant characteristics of high capacity factor to operate the power plant at full capacity for 24 hour per day, it can be a priority heat source of VMD superior to any other renewable energies such as solar and wind power. In this study, we design a geothermal VMD hybrid process, analyze it economically and finally compare the result with a case of conventional VMD process. Geothermal VMD hybrid process generates $23,822,409 of NPV (net present value) more than the conventional VMD process in case of 5% discount rate. The break-even point between these processes is 5.36 year. Sensitivity analysis indicates that steam cost is the most decisive influence variable to the economic outcome.

The Development and Luminescence Chronology of a Coastal Dune from the Shindu Dunefield, T′aean Peninsula (신두리 지역의 전사구(前砂丘)에 대한 OSL 연대 측정 및 지형 발달)

  • Munyikwa Kennedy;Jong-Wook Kim;Jeong-Heon Choi;Kwang-Hee Choi;Jong-Min Byun
    • Journal of the Korean Geographical Society
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    • v.39 no.2
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    • pp.269-282
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    • 2004
  • Luminescence dating of a coastal dune from the Shindu dunefield on the T'aean Peninsula shows that deposition of the dune structure began about 500-600 years ago. The lower section of the dune has remained stable since then but the upper part yields an age of about 30 years, suggesting reactivation or additional deposition since the 1970's. The two samples that were collected from the lower part of the dune at depths of 3.5 m and 2.0 m below the surface differ by an age interval of about 50-70 years. This indicates a net depositional rate of around 2.5 cm a year which is relatively slow for a coastal dune. Whilst only one dune structure has been dated for the time being and even though the dunefield was probably established much earlier in the Holocene, the OSL ages obtained demonstrate that some dunes in the area could be younger than 1000 years. Such chronologies point to a dynamic environment where the dune structures are not permanently fixed. Sedimentological properties of the dune sands are consistent with those of particles initially deposited under subaqueous conditions and then later transported by wind.

Demand Shifting or Ancillary Service?: Optimal Allocation of Storage Resource to Maximize the Efficiency of Power Supply (Demand Shifting or Ancillary Service?: 효율적 재생발전 수용을 위한 에너지저장장치 최적 자원 분배 연구)

  • Wooyoung Jeon
    • Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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    • v.33 no.2
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    • pp.113-133
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    • 2024
  • Variable renewable energy (VRE) such as solar and wind power is the main sources of achieving carbon net zero, but it undermines the stability of power supply due to high variability and uncertainty. Energy storage system (ESS) can not only reduce the curtailment of VRE by load shifting but also contribute to stable power system operation by providing ancillary services. This study analyzes how the allocation of ESS resources between load shifting and ancillary service can contribute to maximizing the efficiency of power supply in a situation where the problems caused by VRE are becoming more and more serious. A stochastic power system optimization model that can realistically simulate the variability and uncertainty of VRE was applied. The analysis time point was set to 2023 and 2036, and the optimal resource allocation strategy and benefits of ESS by varying VRE penetration levels were analyzed. The analysis results can be largely summarized into the following three. First, ESS provides excellent functions for both load shifting and ancillary service, and it was confirmed that the higher the reserve price, the more limited the load shifting and focused on providing reserve. Second, the curtailment of VRE can be a effective substitute for the required reserve, and the higher the reserve price level, the higher the curtailment of VRE and the lower the required amount of reserve. Third, if a reasonable reserve offer price reflecting the opportunity cost is applied, ESS can secure economic feasibility in the near future, and the higher the proportion of VRE, the greater the economic feasibility of ESS. This study suggests that cost-effective low-carbon transition in the power system is possible when the price signal is correctly designed so that power supply resources can be efficiently utilized.

CO2 Exchange in Kwangneung Broadleaf Deciduous Forest in a Hilly Terrain in the Summer of 2002 (2002년 여름철 경사진 광릉 낙엽 활엽수림에서의 이산화탄소 교환)

  • Choi, Tae-jin;Kim, Joon;Lim, Jong-Hwan
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.5 no.2
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    • pp.70-80
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    • 2003
  • We report the first direct measurement of $CO_2$ flux over Kwangneung broadleaf deciduous forest, one of the tower flux sites in KoFlux network. Eddy covariance system was installed on a 30 m tower along with other meteorological instruments from June to August in 2002. Although the study site was non-ideal (with valley-like terrain), turbulence characteristics from limited wind directions (i.e., 90$\pm$45$^{\circ}$) was not significantly different from those obtained at simple, homogeneous terrains with an ideal fetch. Despite very low rate of data retrieval, preliminary results from our analysis are encouraging and worthy of further investigation. Ignoring the role of advection terms, the averaged net ecosystem exchange (NEE) of $CO_2$ ranged from -1.2 to 0.7 mg m$^{-2}$ s$^{-1}$ from June to August in 2002. The effect of weak turbulence on nocturnal NEE was examined in terms of friction velocity (u*) along with the estimation of storage term. The effect of low uf u* NEE was obvious with a threshold value of about 0.2 m s$^{-1}$ . The contribution of storage term to nocturnal NEE was insignificant; suggesting that the $CO_2$ stored within the forest canopy at night was probably removed by the drainage flow along the hilly terrain. This could be also an artifact of uncertainty in calculations of storage term based on a single-level concentration. The hyperbolic light response curves explained >80% of variation in the observed NEE, indicating that $CO_2$ exchange at the site was notably light-dependent. Such a relationship can be used effectively in filling up the missing gaps in NEE data through the season. Finally, a simple scaling analysis based on a linear flow model suggested that advection might play a significant role in NEE evaluation at this site.

Study on Spring Cocoon Crops with the Leaf Produced in the Mulberry Field close to the Totacco Field (개량 Mulching 담배밭 부근뽕잎이 춘잠작에 미치는 영향에 관한 연구)

  • 이상풍;김정배;김계명;박광준
    • Journal of Sericultural and Entomological Science
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    • v.16 no.1
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    • pp.67-75
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    • 1974
  • The studies are to know how much cocoon crops is damaged by the stained leaf with nicotine produced from the tobacco field cultivated in mulching system in spring season and by residual nicotine in autumn season. Furthermore, the new knowledges are to make both industries keep up with their development. In spring season mulberry Held is located higher on the West-North of tobacco held below 20 degrees of slope and with 36 per cent of East-South wind and 18 per cent of South wind blowing from tobacco fold to the mulberry fold. In addition, silkworm larvae are fed with the mulberry leaf produced in the different plots placing by the different distances, l0m, 25m, 50m, 80m, and loom far from the tobacco Held as a control and it is also considered that narcotic larvae including the dead larvae are not observed. On the other hand, it is noted that better leaf quality and abundant growth of mulberry tree is produced from the mulberry fold closer to the tobacco field and with a low slope. 1) Maximum weight of larval body at the 5th stage is damaged by the stained leaf with the nicotine up to 25m far from the tobacco held. 2) The larvae fed with the mulberry leaf in mulberry Held up to 25m far from the tobacco fold produce small number of the fresh cocoons per 1 liter. 3) Low single cocoon weight and low cocoon shell weight are produced by the poison damaged larvae fed with the mulberry. leaf up to 25m far from the tobacco field and weight of cocoon shell is damaged higher than the single cocoon weight. It is resulted in low percentage of cocoon shell. 4) Cocoon yield including the double cocoon from 10,000 larvae is decreased by the larvae fed with the stained leaf in the mulberry fold up to 25m far from the tobacco fold and 19 per cent of cocoon yield is decreased with 2.4kg of cocoon yield in l0m plot and with 2.5kg of cocoon yield in 25m plot at the first season and at the 2nd season with 1.8kg o( cocoon yield in l0m plot and with 11.5kg of cocoon yield in 25m plot, 11 per cent and 9 per cent of cocoon yield including double cocoon from 10,000 larvae is decreased, as compared with the control, respectively. With these results, it is observed that nicotine damage is occurred to the silkworm larvae if the larvae are fed with the leaf in the mulberry Held within 25m-50m far from the tobacco field.

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