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A Comparative Analysis of Risk Impacts on Cost Overrun between Actual Cases and Managers' Perception on Overseas Construction Projects (해외 프로젝트 시공단계 리스크 요인의 실제 비용 초과 영향과 현장관리자 인식 차이 분석)

  • Lee, Kyung-Tae;Ann, Hannah;Kim, Jae-Won;Kim, Ju-Hyung
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.22 no.3
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    • pp.52-60
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    • 2021
  • Due to the significant size of overseas construction projects, the cost overrun has enormous impacts on the financial status of construction companies. The managers' appropriate perception and identification of key risk factors in the construction phase notably affect the performance of projects. However, the actual impacts of risk factors and local manager' s perception of them could be deviated. For this reason, we aim to compare the performance of actual cases and general opinions of responsible practitioners in terms of risk factors relevant to cost overruns in order to present a practical strategy for risk management. Firstly, factors classified from literature review were used to simulate 290 cost overruns data sets from 20 cases by introducing Monte-Carlo Simulation and were ranked by standardized coefficients through multiple regression analysis. Secondly, a survey was conducted against 42 local managers to rank their perception of impact on cost overrun with identical factors by using Stepwise Weight Assessment Ratio Analysis (SWARA). Comparison results show that conflicts such as 'conflict with subcontractors' and 'conflict with the local community' have caused excessive cost overrun. However, managers' perception of these as less significant than the actual influences and consider other risks such as 'material price fluctuation' and 'construction quality errors', as relatively serious. Therefore, education for local managers on conflict risks needs to be presented.

The Design and Numerical Analysis Method of Inclined Self-Supported Wall Using Cement Treated Soil (시멘트혼합처리토를 활용한 경사 자립식 흙막이벽의 설계법과 해석법에 관한 연구)

  • Kang-Han Hong;Byung-Il Kim;Young-Seon Kim;Jin-Hae Kim;Sang-Jae Han
    • Journal of the Korean Geosynthetics Society
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    • v.22 no.3
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    • pp.11-25
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    • 2023
  • In this study, the design and numerical analysis method of the inclined self-supported wall using cement treated soil were studied. In the case of the inclined self-supported wall, the active earth pressure decreased due to the decrease in the coefficient, Ka according to the slope (angle) and the weight decreasing effect, thereby increasing the overall stability. The wall with the slope caused a change in failure mode from overturning to sliding on the excavation side, and the optimal slope was evaluated to be about 10°. Compared to the strength reduction method, the overall stability in numerical analysis results in conservative results in limit equilibrium analysis, so it was found that this method should be attended when designing. As a result of the parameteric study, the stability on bearing capacity and compression failure did not significantly increase above the slope of 10° when the surcharge was small (about 20kPa or less). In the case of cohesion of the backfill, The results similar to numerical analysis were found to consider cohesion. It was evaluated that stability on sliding, oveturning, shear, and tension failure increases in proportion to the thickness of the wall, but there is no significant change in the stability on the bearing capacity and compressive failure regardless of the thickness of the wall above a certain angle (about 10°).

Allometric Equations for Estimating the Carbon Storage of Maple Trees in an Urban Settlement Area (정주지 단풍나무의 탄소저장량 추정 상대생장식)

  • Hojin Kim;Gyeongwon Baek;Byeonggil Choi;Jihyun Lee;Jeongmin Lee;Yowhan Son;Choonsig Kim
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.112 no.1
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    • pp.32-39
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    • 2023
  • Using the logarithmic methods and the generalized method of moments (GMM), this study developed carbon storage equations for maple trees (Acer palmatum Thunb.) planted in an urban settlement area. A total of 20 maple trees of various ages and diameters were destructively harvested to determine their dry weight and carbon concentration by component. The allometric equations with DBH and DBH2×H as independent variables were developed to estimate the carbon storage for each tree component. The carbon concentration of tree components was the highest in stem wood (49.8%) and lowest in stem bark (46.5%). Allometric equations to estimate the carbon storage of tree components (stem, root, aboveground, and total) showed a similar coefficient of determinations (R2) between the allometric equations of the logarithmic method (0.7494-0.9036) and the GMM (0.7085-0.8847). However, the R2 values of the leaves and branches were in the range of 0.3027 to 0.6380, lower than those of the R2 of the other tree components. These results indicate that the carbon storage of maple trees growing in urban settlement areas can be efficiently predicted from the equations of GMM methods in the case of a small sample size or the heteroscedasticity of logarithmic equations.

Mobbing Value Algorithm for Improvement Victims Management - based on Social Network in Military - (집단 따돌림 희생자 관리 개선을 위한 모빙 지수 알고리즘 - 소셜 네트워크 기반 군 조직을 중심으로 -)

  • Kim, Guk-Jin;Park, Gun-Woo;Lee, Sang-Hoon
    • Journal of the Korea Society of Computer and Information
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    • v.14 no.11
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    • pp.1-12
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    • 2009
  • Mobbing is going the rounds through a society rapidly and Military is not exception. Because mobbing of military is expressed not only psychology exclusion that is mobbing pattern of adult society but also sometimes psychologic and physical mobbing, is possible to join serious military discipline like a suicide and outrageous behavior. Specially military try to protect occurrence of victims that is public service through various rules and management plan but victims is going on happen. It means importance of grasp not only current mobbing victims but also potential mobbing victims better than preparation of various rules and management plans. Therefore this paper extracts seven factors and fifty attributes that are related to this matter mobbing. Next, by using Gunwoo's Social Network Service that is made for oneself and expressing extracting factors as '1' if they are related me or not '0'. And apply similarity function(Dice's coefficient) to attributes summation included in factors to calculate similarity between the users. Third, calculate optimizing weight choosing factors included attributes by applying neural network algorithm of SPSS Clementine and propose Mobbing Value(MV) Algorithm through this total summation. Finally through this algorithm which will contribute to efficient personnel management, we can grasp mobbing victims and tentative mobbing victims.

Reliability of mortar filling layer void length in in-service ballastless track-bridge system of HSR

  • Binbin He;Sheng Wen;Yulin Feng;Lizhong Jiang;Wangbao Zhou
    • Steel and Composite Structures
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    • v.47 no.1
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    • pp.91-102
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    • 2023
  • To study the evaluation standard and control limit of mortar filling layer void length, in this paper, the train sub-model was developed by MATLAB and the track-bridge sub-model considering the mortar filling layer void was established by ANSYS. The two sub-models were assembled into a train-track-bridge coupling dynamic model through the wheel-rail contact relationship, and the validity was corroborated by the coupling dynamic model with the literature model. Considering the randomness of fastening stiffness, mortar elastic modulus, length of mortar filling layer void, and pier settlement, the test points were designed by the Box-Behnken method based on Design-Expert software. The coupled dynamic model was calculated, and the support vector regression (SVR) nonlinear mapping model of the wheel-rail system was established. The learning, prediction, and verification were carried out. Finally, the reliable probability of the amplification coefficient distribution of the response index of the train and structure in different ranges was obtained based on the SVR nonlinear mapping model and Latin hypercube sampling method. The limit of the length of the mortar filling layer void was, thus, obtained. The results show that the SVR nonlinear mapping model developed in this paper has a high fitting accuracy of 0.993, and the computational efficiency is significantly improved by 99.86%. It can be used to calculate the dynamic response of the wheel-rail system. The length of the mortar filling layer void significantly affects the wheel-rail vertical force, wheel weight load reduction ratio, rail vertical displacement, and track plate vertical displacement. The dynamic response of the track structure has a more significant effect on the limit value of the length of the mortar filling layer void than the dynamic response of the vehicle, and the rail vertical displacement is the most obvious. At 250 km/h - 350 km/h train running speed, the limit values of grade I, II, and III of the lengths of the mortar filling layer void are 3.932 m, 4.337 m, and 4.766 m, respectively. The results can provide some reference for the long-term service performance reliability of the ballastless track-bridge system of HRS.

Dynamic Load Allowance of Highway Bridges by Numerical Dynamic Analysis for LRFD Calibration (LRFD 보정을 위한 동적해석에 의한 도로교의 동적하중허용계수)

  • Chung, Tae Ju;Shin, Dong-Ku;Park, Young-Suk
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.28 no.3A
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    • pp.305-313
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    • 2008
  • A reliability based calibration of dynamic load allowance (DLA) of highway bridge is performed by numerical dynamic analysis of various types of bridges taking into account of the road surface roughness and bridge-vehicle interaction. A total of 10 simply supported bridges with three girder types in the form of prestressed concrete girder, steel plate girder, and steel box girder is analyzed. The cross sections recommended in "The Standardized Design of Highway Bridge Superstructure" by the Korean Ministry of Construction are used for the prestressed concrete girder bridges and steel plate girder bridges while the box girder bridges are designed by the LRFD method. Ten sets of road surface roughness for each bridge are generated from power spectral density (PSD) function by assuming the roadway as "Average Road". A three dimensionally modeled 5-axle tractor-trailer with its gross weight the same as that of DB-24 design truck is used in the dynamic analysis. For the finite element modeling of superstructure, beam elements for the main girder, shell elements for concrete deck, and rigid links between main girder and concrete deck are used. The statistical mean and coefficient of variation of DLA are obtained from a total of 100 DLA results for 10 different bridges with each having 10 sets of road surface roughness. Applying the DLA statistics obtained, the DLA is finally calibrated in a reliability based LRFD format by using the formula developed in the calibration of OHBDC code.

Comparison of accuracy of breeding value for cow from three methods in Hanwoo (Korean cattle) population

  • Hyo Sang Lee;Yeongkuk Kim;Doo Ho Lee;Dongwon Seo;Dong Jae Lee;Chang Hee Do;Phuong Thanh N. Dinh;Waruni Ekanayake;Kil Hwan Lee;Duhak Yoon;Seung Hwan Lee;Yang Mo Koo
    • Journal of Animal Science and Technology
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    • v.65 no.4
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    • pp.720-734
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    • 2023
  • In Korea, Korea Proven Bulls (KPN) program has been well-developed. Breeding and evaluation of cows are also an essential factor to increase earnings and genetic gain. This study aimed to evaluate the accuracy of cow breeding value by using three methods (pedigree index [PI], pedigree-based best linear unbiased prediction [PBLUP], and genomic-BLUP [GBLUP]). The reference population (n = 16,971) was used to estimate breeding values for 481 females as a test population. The accuracy of GBLUP was 0.63, 0.66, 0.62 and 0.63 for carcass weight (CWT), eye muscle area (EMA), back-fat thickness (BFT), and marbling score (MS), respectively. As for the PBLUP method, accuracy of prediction was 0.43 for CWT, 0.45 for EMA, 0.43 for MS, and 0.44 for BFT. Accuracy of PI method was the lowest (0.28 to 0.29 for carcass traits). The increase by approximate 20% in accuracy of GBLUP method than other methods could be because genomic information may explain Mendelian sampling error that pedigree information cannot detect. Bias can cause reducing accuracy of estimated breeding value (EBV) for selected animals. Regression coefficient between true breeding value (TBV) and GBLUP EBV, PBLUP EBV, and PI EBV were 0.78, 0.625, and 0.35, respectively for CWT. This showed that genomic EBV (GEBV) is less biased than PBLUP and PI EBV in this study. In addition, number of effective chromosome segments (Me) statistic that indicates the independent loci is one of the important factors affecting the accuracy of BLUP. The correlation between Me and the accuracy of GBLUP is related to the genetic relationship between reference and test population. The correlations between Me and accuracy were -0.74 in CWT, -0.75 in EMA, -0.73 in MS, and -0.75 in BF, which were strongly negative. These results proved that the estimation of genetic ability using genomic data is the most effective, and the smaller the Me, the higher the accuracy of EBV.

Effects of Mixture and Systematic Application of Herbicides on Weed Control and Yield in Transplanted Rice (이앙답(移秧畓)에서 제초제(除草劑)의 혼합(混合), 조합처리(組合處理)가 제초효과(除草效果) 및 벼 수량(收量)에 미치는 영향)

  • Kim, J.K.;Ku, Y.C.;Lee, J.H.
    • Korean Journal of Weed Science
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    • v.2 no.1
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    • pp.20-30
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    • 1982
  • A field experiment was conducted in 1981 at the Crop Experiment Station, Suweon, Korea, in machine transplanted paddy rice field, to study the effectiveness of single herbicide, mixture, and systematic application of herbicides on diversity of weed control spectrum. The rice variety planted was Taebaegbyeo, Indica ${\times}$ Japonica cross bred. Experimental field was dominated by Echinochtoa crusgalli, Eleocharis kuroguwai, and Scirpus hotarui, and importance values based on dry weight of these weeds were 89%, 5%, and 3%, respectively. The mixture or systematic treatments of herbicide were generally more effective than single herbicide applications on weed control. Coefficients of similarity based on floristic composition after herbicide application between Perfluidone (5G) and Chloromethoxynil (7G), and between Pertluidone (5G) and Bifenox (7G), and between Perfluidone (5G) and three types of Butachlor (6G) were low, and these sets seemed to be a good mixture herbicide in paddy fields. While, Perfluidone (5G) had low coefficient of similarity with other single herbicides tested. The information on coefficient of similarity could be used as parameter for selecting herbicides to increase the efficiency of herbicidal performance. Simpson's indices from Butachlor (3.5G)/SL-49 (7G), Butachlor (3.5G)/Pyrazolate (6G), and Perfluidone (5G) treatments were high, and these herbicide treatments tended to the weed community type simplified, while the indices from Perfluidone (5G) + Chloromethoxynil (7G), Butachlor (6G) fb Perftuidone (5G), and Butachlor (4G)/Naproanilide (6G) treatments were low, and these herbicide treatments caused to the community type diversified in terms of floristic composition.

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Development of Benthic Macroinvertebrates Index (BMI) for Biological Assessment on Stream Environment (하천환경의 생물학적 평가를 위한 저서동물지수(BMI)의 개발)

  • Kong, Dongsoo;Son, Se-Hwan;Hwang, Soon-Jin;Won, Doo Hee;Kim, Myoung Chul;Park, Jung Ho;Jeon, Te Su;Lee, Jong Eun;Kim, Jong Hyun;Kim, Jong Sun;Park, Jaeheung;Kwak, Inn Sil;Ham, Sun Ah;Jun, Yung-Chul;Park, Young-Seuk;Lee, Jae-Kwan;Lee, Su-Woong;Park, Chang-Hee;Moon, Jeong-Suk;Kim, Jin-Young;Park, Hae Kyung;Park, Sun Jin;Kwon, Yongju;Kim, Piljae;Kim, Ah Reum
    • Journal of Korean Society on Water Environment
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    • v.34 no.2
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    • pp.183-201
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    • 2018
  • The tolerance of Korean benthic macroinvertebrates to organic pollution has been analyzed since the early 1990s. However, considering the fact that there have been related studies carried out in some European countries since the early 20th century, the history of the research in Korea is very short and there is still much knowledge to supplement. We revised the saprobic valency, the saprobic value and the indicator weight value of 190 benthic macroinvertebrates taxa through the data of water quality and individual abundance collected from 7,086 sampling units in Korea from 2008 to 2014. The individual abundance of Uracanthella (Ephemeroptera) as a representative, one of the most common and abundant taxa in Korea, showed a typical lognormal distribution to 5-day biochemical oxygen demand (BOD5) concentration, and a normal distribution to the class interval of BOD5 concentration according to saprobic series. The value combining the mean individual abundance and the relative frequency of occurrence was a more efficient indicator value than that of each property alone. Benthic Macroinertebrates Index (BMI) was newly proposed as a modification of the saprobic index of Zelinka and Marvan (1961). BMI showed extremely significant correlation (determination coefficient $r^2$ > 0.6, n = 569 sites) with the concentration of BOD5, and the coefficient was a little higher than those of the previous indices. Until now, there has been very little research on the assessment of biological integrity of benthic macroinvertebrates community in Korea. While continuing researches into improve the reliability of BMI, it is necessary to develop multimetric indices for evaluating the integrity, including the composition of species and functional guilds, and the richness and diversity of the community.

Changes in Radiation Use Efficiency of Rice Canopies under Different Nitrogen Nutrition Status (질소영양 상태에 따른 벼 군락의 광 이용효율 변화)

  • Lee Dong-Yun;Kim Min-Ho;Lee Kyu-Jong;Lee Byun-Woo
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.8 no.3
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    • pp.190-198
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    • 2006
  • Radiation use efficiency (RUE), the amount of biomass produced per unit intercepted photosynthetically active radiation (PAR), constitutes a main part of crop growth simulation models. The objective of the present study was to evaluate the variation of RUE of rice plants under various nitrogen nutritive conditions. from 1998 to 2000, shoot dry weight (DW), intercepted PAR of rice canopies, and nitrogen nutritive status were measured in various nitrogen fertilization regimes using japonica and Tongil-type varieties. These data were used for estimating the average RUEs before heading and the relationship between RUE and the nitrogen nutritive status. The canopy extinction coefficient (K) increased with the growth of rice until maximum tillering stage and maintained constant at about 0.4 from maximum tillering to heading stage, rapidly increasing again after heading stage. The DW growth revealed significant linear correlation with the cumulative PAR interception of the canopy, enabling the estimation of the average RUE before heading with the slopes of the regression lines. Average RUE tended to increase with the increased level of nitrogen fertilization. RUE increased approaching maximum as the nitrogen nutrition index (NNI) calculated by the ratio of actual shoot N concentration to the critical N concentration for the maximum growth at any growth stage and the specific leaf nitrogen $(SLN;\;g/m^2\;leaf\;area)$ increased. This relationship between RUE (g/MJ of PAR) and N nutritive status was expressed well by the following exponential functions: $$RUE=3.13\{1-exp(-4.33NNNI+1.26)\}$$ $$RUE=3.17\{1-exp(-1.33SLN+0.04)\}$$ The above equations explained, respectively, about 80% and 75% of the average RUE variation due to varying nitrogen nutritive status of rice plants. However, these equations would have some limitations if incorporated as a component model to simulate the rice growth as they are based on relationships averaged over the entire growth period before heading.