• Title/Summary/Keyword: weather derivative

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ADAPTIVE NUMERICAL SOLUTIONS FOR THE BLACK-SCHOLES EQUATION

  • Park, H.W.;S.K. Chung
    • Journal of applied mathematics & informatics
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    • v.12 no.1_2
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    • pp.335-349
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    • 2003
  • Almost all business are affected by the weather so that weather derivatives has been traded to hedge weather risk. Since the weather itself is not an asset with a market price, some analysts believe that the Black-Scholes equation could not be used appropriately to price weather derivative options. But some weather derivatives can be considered as an Asian option, we revisit the Black-scholes model. Numerical solution of the Black-Scholes equation has a significant error at the money option or around the money option, it is necessary to adopt adaptive mesh near to the strike value. Here we propose a numerical method with an adaptive grid refinement.

Designing Forward Markets for Electricity using Weather Derivatives (날씨파생상품을 이용한 전기선물시장 설계)

  • Yoo, Shiyong
    • Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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    • v.15 no.2
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    • pp.319-353
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    • 2006
  • This paper shows how weather derivatives can be used to hedge against the price risk and volume risk of purchasing relatively large amounts of electricity. Our specific approach to designing new contracts for electricity is to focus on the return over a summer season rather than on the daily levels of demand and price. It is shown that correct market signals can be preserved in a contract and the associated financial risk can be offset by weather options. The advantage of combining a forward contract with a weather derivative is that the high prices on hot days or when the temperature is high reflect the underlying high cost of producing power when the load is high and that the combined contract with a weather derivative substantially reduces the volatility of the return.

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The research on daily temperature using continuous AR model (일별 온도의 연속형 자기회귀모형 연구 - 6개 광역시를 중심으로 -)

  • Kim, Ji Young;Jeong, Kiho
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.25 no.1
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    • pp.155-167
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    • 2014
  • This study uses a continuous autoregressive (CAR) model to analyze daily average temperature in six Korean metropolitan cities. Data period is Jan. 1, 1954 to Dec. 31, 2010 covering 57 years. Using a relative long time series reveals that the linear time trend components are all statistically significant in the six cities, which was not shown in previous studies. Particularly the plus sign of its coefficient implies the effect on Korea of the global warming. Unit-root test results are that the temperature time series are stationary without unit-root. It turns out that CAR(3) is suitable for stochastic component of the daily temperature. Since developing suitable continuous stochastic model of the underlying weather related variables is crucial in pricing the weather derivatives, the results in this study will likely prove useful in further future studies on pricing weather derivatives.

A Study on the Evaluation of Automatic Steering System of Ships in Folowing Seas (추사파중을 항행하는 선박의 자동조타 시스템 평가에 관한 연구)

  • 이경우;손경호
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Navigation
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    • v.25 no.4
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    • pp.407-415
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    • 2001
  • In the present study, irregular disturbances to ship dynamics is proposed, where irregular disturbances implying irregular wave and the fluctuating component of wind for the evaluation of automatic steering system of ship in following seas. Prediction method based on the principle of linear superposition. Irregular wave disturbances in following seas is calculated by frequency variation method. The mathematical model of each element of an automatic steering system is derived, which takes account of a few non-linear mechanisms. PD(Proportional-Derivative) controller and low-pass filter with a weather adjustment are adopted to modelling the characteristics of an autopilot. Performance index is introduced from the viewpoint of energy saving, which derived from the concept of energy loss on ship propulsion. Finally, the present methods are applied to two typical types of ship ; an ore carrier and a fishing boat. The various effects of control constants of autopilot on propulsive energy loss are investigated

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Modeling and Intelligent control for Wastewater treatment process (수처리공정의 모델링과 지능제어의 적용)

  • Cheon, Seong-Pyo;Kim, Bong-Chul;Kim, Sung-Shin
    • Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
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    • 2000.07d
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    • pp.2333-2335
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    • 2000
  • The main motivation of this research is to develop an intelligent control strategy for Activated Sludge Process(ASP). ASP is a complex and nonlinear dynamic system because of the characteristic of a wastewater, the change of an influent flow rate, weather conditions, and etc. The mathematical model of ASP also includes uncertainties which are ignored or not considered by process engineer or controller designer. The ASP is generally controlled by a PID controller that consists of fixed proportional, integral, and derivative gain values. The PID gains can be adjusted by the expert in the ASP. The ASP model based on Matlab$^{(R)}$5.3/Simulink$^{(R)}$3.0 is developed in this paper. Various control methods are applied to the ASP model and the control results are disscussed. Three control methods are designed and tested: conventional PID controller, fuzzy logic control approach to modify setpoints, and fuzzy-PID control method.

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A Finite Element Galerkin High Order Filter for the Spherical Limited Area Model

  • Lee, Chung-Hui;Cheong, Hyeong-Bin;Kang, Hyun-Gyu
    • Journal of the Korean earth science society
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    • v.38 no.2
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    • pp.105-114
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    • 2017
  • Two dimensional finite element method with quadrilateral basis functions was applied to the spherical high order filter on the spherical surface limited area domain. The basis function consists of four shape functions which are defined on separate four grid boxes sharing the same gridpoint. With the basis functions, the first order derivative was expressed as an algebraic equation associated with nine point stencil. As the theory depicts, the convergence rate of the error for the spherical Laplacian operator was found to be fourth order, while it was the second order for the spherical Laplacian operator. The accuracy of the new high order filter was shown to be almost the same as those of Fourier finite element high order filter. The two-dimension finite element high order filter was incorporated in the weather research and forecasting (WRF) model as a hyper viscosity. The effect of the high order filter was compared with the built-in viscosity scheme of the WRF model. It was revealed that the high order filter performed better than the built in viscosity scheme did in providing a sharper cutoff of small scale disturbances without affecting the large scale field. Simulation of the tropical cyclone track and intensity with the high order filter showed a forecast performance comparable to the built in viscosity scheme. However, the predicted amount and spatial distribution of the rainfall for the simulation with the high order filter was closer to the observed values than the case of built in viscosity scheme.

A Study on Prediction of Propulsive Energy Loss Related to Automatic Steering of Ships in Following Seas (추사피중에서 자동조타로써 항행하는 선박의 추진에너지 손실량 평가에 관한 연구)

  • 이경우;손경호
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Navigation and Port Research Conference
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    • 1996.04a
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    • pp.77-92
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    • 1996
  • When an automatic course-keeping is concerned as is quite popular in modern navigation the closed-loop steering system consists of autopilot device power unit (or telemotor unit) steering gear magnetic or gyro compass and ship dynamics. The consideration of irregular disturbances to ship dyanmics and a few non-linear mechanisms involved in the system inevitably or artificially are known to be very important in properly evaluating or analyzing the automatic steering system. In the present study the mathematical model of each element of an automatic steering system is derived which takes account of a fex non-linear mechanisms. PD(Proportional-Derivative) controller and low-pass filter with a weather adjustment are adopted to modelling the characteristics of an autopilot. The calculation method of imposing irregular disturbances to ship dynamics is proposed where irregular disturbances implying irregular wave and the fluctuating component of wind. For he evaluation of automatic steering system of ships in the open seas an important term "performance index" is introduced from the viewpoint of energy saving which derived from the concept of energy loss on ship propulsion. Finally the present methods are applied to two typical types of ship ; an ore carrier and a fishing boat. The various effects of linear and/or non-linear control constants of autopilot on propulsive energy loss are investigated to validate and clarify the present smulation technique.

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Fabrication of Porous Cellulose Acetate Propionate/Polybutylene Succinate Microfibers by High Speed Centrifugal Spinning (초고속 원심방사에 의한 아세트산프로피온산 셀룰로오스/폴리부틸렌 숙시네이트 다공성 마이크론 섬유 제조)

  • Tae Young Kim;Mi Kyung Kim;Jinsoo Kim;Jungeon Lee;Jae Hoon Jung;Youngkwon Kim;Tae Hyeon Kim;Ki Young Kim;Jeong Hyun Yeum
    • Textile Coloration and Finishing
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    • v.35 no.4
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    • pp.239-245
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    • 2023
  • Cellulose is an abundant biodegradable material in nature with excellent properties, but due to its poor processability, it has been widely studied for processing through modification. Cellulose acetate propionate (CAP) is a cellulose derivative in which the hydroxyl group of cellulose is replaced by acetyl and propionyl groups. CAP has several advantages, such as excellent solubility, structural stability, light and weather resistance, and good transparency. Porous nanofibers with excellent specific surface area, which can be applied in various fields, can be easily formed by the phase separation method using highly volatile solvents. High speed centrifugal spinning is a nano/micro fiber preparation method with advantages such as fast spinning and easy alignment control. In this study, a CAP/polybutylene succinate (PBS) spinning solution with chloroform as solvent was prepared to prepare porous microfibers and the fiber morphology was examined as a function of the disk rotation speed in an high speed centrifugal spinning device.

Modeling and Intelligent Control for Activated Sludge Process (활성슬러지 공정을 위한 모델링과 지능제어의 적용)

  • Cheon, Seong-pyo;Kim, Bongchul;Kim, Sungshin;Kim, Chang-Won;Kim, Sanghyun;Woo, Hae-Jin
    • Journal of Korean Society of Environmental Engineers
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    • v.22 no.10
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    • pp.1905-1919
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    • 2000
  • The main motivation of this research is to develop an intelligent control strategy for Activated Sludge Process (ASP). ASP is a complex and nonlinear dynamic system because of the characteristic of wastewater, the change in influent flow rate, weather conditions, and etc. The mathematical model of ASP also includes uncertainties which are ignored or not considered by process engineer or controller designer. The ASP is generally controlled by a PID controller that consists of fixed proportional, integral, and derivative gain values. The PID gains are adjusted by the expert who has much experience in the ASP. The ASP model based on $Matlab^{(R)}5.3/Simulink^{(R)}3.0$ is developed in this paper. The performance of the model is tested by IWA(International Water Association) and COST(European Cooperation in the field of Scientific and Technical Research) data that include steady-state results during 14 days. The advantage of the developed model is that the user can easily modify or change the controller by the help of the graphical user interface. The ASP model as a typical nonlinear system can be used to simulate and test the proposed controller for an educational purpose. Various control methods are applied to the ASP model and the control results are compared to apply the proposed intelligent control strategy to a real ASP. Three control methods are designed and tested: conventional PID controller, fuzzy logic control approach to modify setpoints, and fuzzy-PID control method. The proposed setpoints changer based on the fuzzy logic shows a better performance and robustness under disturbances. The objective function can be defined and included in the proposed control strategy to improve the effluent water quality and to reduce the operating cost in a real ASP.

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