• Title/Summary/Keyword: water-level prediction

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Prediction of Groundwater Level in Chojung Area (초정지역의 지하수 유동해석)

  • 안상도;김경호;정영훈
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Groundwater Environment
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    • v.7 no.3
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    • pp.133-140
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    • 2000
  • The area of Chojung is famous for its mineral water quality. Because of this reason, massive groundwater development was induced in the area. As a result of excessive pumping. the depletion of the groundwater resources is expected seriously. This study was conducted to analyse groundwater flow in Chojung using a numerical model. Simulation results show the groundwater level change slowly in the mountain area but steep groundwater drawdown occurred in the pumping area in the downstream. This steep groundwater drawdown is due to excessive pumping in the hilly region. Because of this excessive, desiccation of water resources were predicted and proper countermeasure is in great demand.

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ROSA/LSTF Test and RELAP5 Analyses on PWR Cold Leg Small-Break LOCA with Accident Management Measure and PKL Counterpart Test

  • Takeda, Takeshi;Ohtsu, Iwao
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.49 no.5
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    • pp.928-940
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    • 2017
  • An experiment using the $Prim{\ddot{a}}rkreisl{\ddot{a}}ufe$ Versuchsanlage (PKL) was performed for the OECD/NEA PKL-3 Project as a counterpart to a previous test with the large-scale test facility (LSTF) on a cold leg smallbreak loss-of-coolant accident with an accident management (AM) measure in a pressurized water reactor. Concerning the AM measure, the rate of steam generator (SG) secondary-side depressurization was controlled to achieve a primary depressurization rate of 200 K/h as a common test condition; however, the onset timings of the SG depressurization were different from each other. In both tests, rapid recovery started in the core collapsed liquid level after loop seal clearing, which caused whole core quench. Some discrepancies appeared between the LSTF and PKL test results for the core collapsed liquid level, the cladding surface temperature, and the primary pressure. The RELAP5/MOD3.3 code predicted the overall trends of the major thermal-hydraulic responses observed in the LSTF test well, and indicated a remaining problem in the prediction of primary coolant distribution. Results of uncertainty analysis for the LSTF test clarified the influences of the combination of multiple uncertain parameters on peak cladding temperature within the defined uncertain ranges.

Evaluation of Operational Options of Wastewater Treatment Using EQPS Models (EQPS 모델을 이용한 하수처리장 운전 평가)

  • Yoo, Hosik;Ahn, Seyoung
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Urban Environment
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    • v.18 no.4
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    • pp.401-408
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    • 2018
  • EQPS (Effluent Quality Prediction System, Dynamita, France) was applied to analyze the appropriateness of the design of a bioreactor in A sewage treatment plant. A sewage treatment plant was designed by setting the design concentration of the secondary clarifier effluent to total nitrogen and total phosphorus, 10 mg/L and 1.8 mg/L, respectively, in order to comply with the target water quality at the level of the hydrophilic water. The retention time of the 4-stage BNR reactor was 9.6 hours, which was 0.5 for the pre-anoxic tank, 1.0 for the anaerobic tank, 2.9 for the anoxic tank, and 5.2 hours for the aerobic tank. As a result of the modeling of the winter season, the retention time of the anaerobic tank was increased by 0.2 hours in order to satisfy the target water quality of the hydrophilic water level. The default coefficients of the one step nitrification denitrification model proposed by the software manufacturer were used to exclude distortion of the modeling results. Since the process modeling generally presents optimal conditions, the retention time of the 4-stage BNR should be increased to 9.8 hours considering the bioreactor margin. The accurate use of process modeling in the design stage of the sewage treatment plant is a way to ensure the stability of the treatment performance and efficiency after construction of the sewage treatment plant.

Assessing the Impact of Climate Change on Water Resources: Waimea Plains, New Zealand Case Example

  • Zemansky, Gil;Hong, Yoon-Seeok Timothy;Rose, Jennifer;Song, Sung-Ho;Thomas, Joseph
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2011.05a
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    • pp.18-18
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    • 2011
  • Climate change is impacting and will increasingly impact both the quantity and quality of the world's water resources in a variety of ways. In some areas warming climate results in increased rainfall, surface runoff, and groundwater recharge while in others there may be declines in all of these. Water quality is described by a number of variables. Some are directly impacted by climate change. Temperature is an obvious example. Notably, increased atmospheric concentrations of $CO_2$ triggering climate change increase the $CO_2$ dissolving into water. This has manifold consequences including decreased pH and increased alkalinity, with resultant increases in dissolved concentrations of the minerals in geologic materials contacted by such water. Climate change is also expected to increase the number and intensity of extreme climate events, with related hydrologic changes. A simple framework has been developed in New Zealand for assessing and predicting climate change impacts on water resources. Assessment is largely based on trend analysis of historic data using the non-parametric Mann-Kendall method. Trend analysis requires long-term, regular monitoring data for both climate and hydrologic variables. Data quality is of primary importance and data gaps must be avoided. Quantitative prediction of climate change impacts on the quantity of water resources can be accomplished by computer modelling. This requires the serial coupling of various models. For example, regional downscaling of results from a world-wide general circulation model (GCM) can be used to forecast temperatures and precipitation for various emissions scenarios in specific catchments. Mechanistic or artificial intelligence modelling can then be used with these inputs to simulate climate change impacts over time, such as changes in streamflow, groundwater-surface water interactions, and changes in groundwater levels. The Waimea Plains catchment in New Zealand was selected for a test application of these assessment and prediction methods. This catchment is predicted to undergo relatively minor impacts due to climate change. All available climate and hydrologic databases were obtained and analyzed. These included climate (temperature, precipitation, solar radiation and sunshine hours, evapotranspiration, humidity, and cloud cover) and hydrologic (streamflow and quality and groundwater levels and quality) records. Results varied but there were indications of atmospheric temperature increasing, rainfall decreasing, streamflow decreasing, and groundwater level decreasing trends. Artificial intelligence modelling was applied to predict water usage, rainfall recharge of groundwater, and upstream flow for two regionally downscaled climate change scenarios (A1B and A2). The AI methods used were multi-layer perceptron (MLP) with extended Kalman filtering (EKF), genetic programming (GP), and a dynamic neuro-fuzzy local modelling system (DNFLMS), respectively. These were then used as inputs to a mechanistic groundwater flow-surface water interaction model (MODFLOW). A DNFLMS was also used to simulate downstream flow and groundwater levels for comparison with MODFLOW outputs. MODFLOW and DNFLMS outputs were consistent. They indicated declines in streamflow on the order of 21 to 23% for MODFLOW and DNFLMS (A1B scenario), respectively, and 27% in both cases for the A2 scenario under severe drought conditions by 2058-2059, with little if any change in groundwater levels.

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Challenges of Groundwater as Resources in the Near Future

  • Lee, Jin-Yong
    • Journal of Soil and Groundwater Environment
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    • v.20 no.2
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    • pp.1-9
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    • 2015
  • Groundwater has been a very precious resource for human life and economic development in the world. With increasing population and food demand, the groundwater use especially for agriculture is largely elevated worldwide. The very much large groundwater use results in depletion of major aquifers, land subsidences in many large cities, anthropogenic groundwater contamination, seawater intrusion in coastal areas and accompanying severe conflicts for water security. Furthermore, with the advent of changing climate, securing freshwater supply including groundwater becomes a pressing and critical issue for sustainable societal development in every country because prediction of precipitation is more difficult, its uneven distribution is aggravating, weather extremes are more frequent, and rising sea level is also threatening the freshwater resource. Under these difficulties, can groundwater be sustaining its role as essential element for human and society in the near future? We have to focus our efforts and wisdom on answering the question. Korean government should increase its investment in securing groundwater resources for changing climate.

Environmental variable selection and synthetic sampling methods for improving the accuracy of algal alert level prediction model (변수 선택 및 샘플링 기법을 적용한 조류 경보 단계 예측 모델의 정확도 개선)

  • Jin Hwi Kim;Hankyu Lee;Seohyun Byeon;Jae-Ki Shin;Yongeun Park
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2023.05a
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    • pp.517-517
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    • 2023
  • 현재 우리나라에서는 4대강 및 주요 호소 29지점을 대상으로 조류경보제가 시행되고 있으며 조류 경보 단계는 실시간 모니터링지점에서 측정되는 유해 조류의 셀농도를 기반으로 발령 단계가 결정된다. 상수원 구간은 관심, 경계, 조류 대발생, 해제 또는 미발생 총 4구간으로 구성되며, 친수 활동 구간의 경우 조류 대발생을 제외한 3구간으로 구성된다. 현재 시행되는 조류 경보제의 목적은 유해 조류 발생 시 사후 대응 방안 마련에 보다 초점이 맞춰져 있으며 특히, 모니터링 주기 확대 여부, 오염원 관리 방안 마련, 조류 제거 여부 등의 의사 결정 수단으로 사용되고 있다. 하지만 조류 경보 단계에 대한 사전 예측이 가능한 경우 유해 조류의 성장을 억제할 수 있으며 이를 통해 안전하고 깨끗한 수자원을 확보할 수 있다. 본 연구에서는 조류 경보 단계의 사전적 예측을 위해 국가 실시간 측정망에서 제공하는 전국 보 모니터링 종합 정보 자료, 기상측정망 자료, 실시간 보 현황 자료를 활용하여 예측 모델을 구축하였다. 또한, 단계 예측의 정확도를 개선하기 위해 변수 선택 기법을 활용하여 조류 경보 단계에 영향을 미치는 환경변수를 선정하였으며 자료의 불균형으로 인해 모델 학습 과정에서 발생하는 예측 오류를 최소화하기 위해 다양한 샘플링 기법을 적용하여 모델의 성능을 평가하였다. 변수 선택 및 샘플링 기법을 고려하지 않은 원자료를 사용하여 예측 모델을 구축한 결과 관심 단계(Level-1) 및 경보 단계(Level-2)에 대해 각각 50%, 62.5%의 예측 정확도를 보인 반면 비선형 변수 선택 기법 및 Synthetic Minority Over-sampling Technique-Edited Nearrest Neighbor(SMOTE-ENN) 샘플링 기법을 적용하여 구축한 모델에서는 Level-1은 85.7%, Level-2는 75.0%의 예측 정확도를 보였다.

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Data-driven Model Prediction of Harmful Cyanobacterial Blooms in the Nakdong River in Response to Increased Temperatures Under Climate Change Scenarios (기후변화 시나리오의 기온상승에 따른 낙동강 남세균 발생 예측을 위한 데이터 기반 모델 시뮬레이션)

  • Gayeon Jang;Minkyoung Jo;Jayun Kim;Sangjun Kim;Himchan Park;Joonhong Park
    • Journal of Korean Society on Water Environment
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    • v.40 no.3
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    • pp.121-129
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    • 2024
  • Harmful cyanobacterial blooms (HCBs) are caused by the rapid proliferation of cyanobacteria and are believed to be exacerbated by climate change. However, the extent to which HCBs will be stimulated in the future due to increased temperature remains uncertain. This study aims to predict the future occurrence of cyanobacteria in the Nakdong River, which has the highest incidence of HCBs in South Korea, based on temperature rise scenarios. Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) were used as the basis for these scenarios. Data-driven model simulations were conducted, and out of the four machine learning techniques tested (multiple linear regression, support vector regressor, decision tree, and random forest), the random forest model was selected for its relatively high prediction accuracy. The random forest model was used to predict the occurrence of cyanobacteria. The results of boxplot and time-series analyses showed that under the worst-case scenario (RCP8.5 (2100)), where temperature increases significantly, cyanobacterial abundance across all study areas was greatly stimulated. The study also found that the frequencies of HCB occurrences exceeding certain thresholds (100,000 and 1,000,000 cells/mL) increased under both the best-case scenario (RCP2.6 (2050)) and worst-case scenario (RCP8.5 (2100)). These findings suggest that the frequency of HCB occurrences surpassing a certain threshold level can serve as a useful diagnostic indicator of vulnerability to temperature increases caused by climate change. Additionally, this study highlights that water bodies currently susceptible to HCBs are likely to become even more vulnerable with climate change compared to those that are currently less susceptible.

Prediction System of Hydrodynamic Circulation and Freshwater Dispersion in Mokpo Coastal Zone (목포해역의 해수유동 및 담수확산 예측시스템)

  • Jung, Tae-Sung;Kim, Tae-Sik
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Marine Environment & Energy
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    • v.11 no.1
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    • pp.13-23
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    • 2008
  • In coastal region, eutrophication, Do deficit and red tide are frequently occurred by influx of fresh water. When the fresh water containing pollutants is discharged into the sea, the surrounding water is contaminated by dispersion of freshwater flowing into coastal waters. The prediction and analysis about the dispersion process of the discharged fresh water should be conducted. A modeling system using GUI was developed to simulate hydrodynamic flow and fresh water dispersion in coastal waters and to analyze the results efficiently. The modeling module of the system includes a tide model using a finite element method and a fresh water dispersion model using a particle-tracking method. This system was applied to predict the tidal currents and fresh water dispersion in Mokpo coastal zone. To verify accuracy of the hydrodynamic model, the simulation results were compared with observed sea level and time variations of tidal currents showing a good agreement. The fresh water dispersion was verified with observed salinity distribution. The dispersion model also was verified with analytic solutions with advection-diffusion problems in 1-dimensional and 2-dimensional simple domain. The system is operated on GUI environment, to ease the model handling such as inputting data and displaying results. Therefore, anyone can use the system conveniently and observe easily and accurately the simulation results by using graphic functions included in the system. This system can be used widely to decrease the environmental disaster induced by inflow of fresh water into coastal waters.

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Physical activity level, total daily energy expenditure, and estimated energy expenditure in normal weight and overweight or obese children and adolescents (소아청소년의 비만여부에 따른 신체활동수준, 1일 총에너지소비량 및 에너지필요추정량의 평가)

  • Kim, Myung Hee;Kim, Eun Kyung
    • Journal of Nutrition and Health
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    • v.45 no.6
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    • pp.511-521
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    • 2012
  • The purposes of this study were to assess the physical activity level (PAL) and the total daily energy expenditure (TEE) as well as to evaluate the validity of prediction equation for the estimated energy requirement (EER) in normal weight and overweight or obese children and adolescents. The subjects comprised of 100 healthy Korean students aged between 7-18. The anthropometric data was collected. PAL was calculated from the physical activity diary by the 24-hour recall method, and the resting metabolic rate (RMR) was measured by an open-circuit indirect calorimetry using a ventilated hood system. Daily energy expenditure was PAL multiplied by RMR. EER was calculated by using the prediction equation published in KDRIs. There was no significant difference in the means of age and height between the 46 obese subjects and 54 nonobese subjects. The weight and BMI of the obese group (60.2 kg, $25.3kg/m^2$) were significantly higher than those of the nonobese group (42.4 kg, $18.4kg/m^2$). However, PAL was not significantly different between the two groups (nonobese 1.45, obese 1.46). TEE of the obese group (2,212 kcal/day) was significantly higher than that of the nonobese group (1,774 kcal/day). EER (individual PA) and EER (light PA) were significantly higher than TEE (p < 0,001); however, EER (sedentary PA) was not significantly different with TEE in the two groups. These results showed that the levels of physical activity were the same as the sedentary activity both in the nonobese and obese Korean students; moreover, the predictive equation for EER published in KDRI overestimated the TEE of Korean children and adolescents. Therefore, in further research, a new predictive equation for EER should be developed for Korean children and adolescents through the doubly labeled water method.

Evaluation of the future monthly groundwater level vulnerable period using LSTM model based observation data in Mihostream watershed (LSTM을 활용한 관측자료 기반 미호천 유역 미래 월 단위 지하수위 관리 취약 시기 평가)

  • Lee, Jae-Beom;Agossou, Amos;Yang, Jeong-Seok
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.55 no.7
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    • pp.481-494
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    • 2022
  • This study proposed a evaluation of the monthly vulnerable period for groundwater level management in the Miho stream watershed and a technique for evaluating the vulnerable period for future groundwater level management using LSTM. Observation data from groundwater level and precipitation observation stations in the Miho stream watershed were collected, LSTM was constructed, predicted values for precipitation and groundwater levels from 2020 to 2022 were calculated, and future groundwater management was evaluated when vulnerable. In order to evaluate the vulnerable period of groundwater level management, the correlation between groundwater level and precipitation was considered, and weights were calculated to consider changes caused by climate change. As a result of the evaluation, the Miho stream watershed showed high vulnerability to underground water management in February, March, and June, and especially near the Cheonan Susin observation well, the vulnerability index for groundwater level management is expected to deteriorate in the future. The results of this study are expected to contribute to the evaluation of the vulnerable period of groundwater level management and the derivation of preemptive countermeasures to the problem of groundwater resources in the basin by presenting future prediction techniques using LSTM.