• 지능정보연구
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• 제23권1호
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• pp.1-22
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• 2017

사업타당성 분석이나 기업 기술가치평가 등 미래의 사업에 대한 진입이나 투자 타당성을 분석하기 위해서는 새로운 사업과 관련한 시장을 추정하고 그 안에서 확보 가능한 매출을 객관적으로 추정하는 과정이 필수 불가결하다. 이런 신규 매출이나 시장규모의 추정 방법은 다양한 방법으로 구분이 가능한데 크게 정량적인 방법과 정성적인 방법으로 구분할 수 있다. 그러나 두 가지 방법 모두 많은 자원과 시간을 필요로 한다. 그래서 우리는 신규 사업의 평가지원을 위한 데이터 기반의 지능형 매출 예측 시스템을 제안하고자 한다. 본 연구는 사업타당성 분석이나 기술가치평가를 위한 신규 사업의 매출 추정 시스템을 개발하는데, 알고리즘 기반으로 전통적인 정량 예측방법 중 하나인 유추방법에 주목했다. 동일한 국내 산업에서 최근 창업한 기업의 매출 실적을 국내 신규 사업의 매출액을 추정하는 유추 대상 변수로 활용할 수 있는지 검토한다. 여기서 유추예측 대상은 최초 매출액과 초기 성장률이며, 주요 비교 차원은 산업분류, 창업시기 등이 고려된다. 특히 본 연구는 우리나라 창업 기업이 가지는 매출 성장률의 평균회귀 현상을 활용하는 지능형 정보 지원 시스템을 제안하다. 본 연구에서는 신규 매출 추정을 위해서 역사적 자료인 창업 매출 실적을 활용하는 방법이 적절한지 판단하기 위해서 잠재성장모형 등을 활용해 산업분류에 따른 신규 사업의 초기 매출액과 연도별 성장률이 산업분류별로 차이가 있는지 분석한다. 기존 기업의 창업 후 4년간 매출 성과의 종단자료를 잠재성장모형으로 분석하는데, 특정 산업분류에서 차이를 보여주는지 분석해 산업분류가 유추 예측에서 고려해야할 유의미한 변수인지 분석하는 것이다. 본 연구의 결과는 신속하고 객관적인 신규 사업 매출 추정을 가능하게 하는 지능형 정보시스템을 개발하게 해서 사업성타당성 분석이나 기술가치평가 과정의 효율성을 개선시켜 줄 것으로 기대된다.

• 디지털융복합연구
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• 제11권5호
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• pp.145-158
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• 2013

본 논문에서는 첫째, 변수들 간의 선형관계를 전제로 하지 않는 인공지능시스템의 하나인 인공신경망을 이용한 평가모형을 구축하여 상장기업의 주가를 예측하고 둘째, 회계정보를 이용하여 기업 가치를 평가하는 Ohlson모형을 이용하여 상장기업의 주가를 예측하였다. 이를 신규상장기업의 주가예측에 적용하여 어느 방법이 더 주가예측의 적정성이 높은지를 평가하였다. 이에 대한 본 연구의 실증분석 결과는 다음과 같다. 첫째, 공모가를 기준으로 한 경우 Ohlson모형에 의한 추정주가는 통계적으로 차이가 있고, 인공신경망 모형에 의한 추정주가는 통계적으로 차이가 없었다. 둘째, 상장일 종가를 기준으로 한 경우 Ohlson모형에 의한 추정주가와 인공신경망 모형에 의한 추정주가는 통계적으로 차이가 없었다. 셋째, 상장 2개월 후 종가를 기준으로 한 경우 Ohlson모형에 의한 추정주가는 통계적으로 차이가 있고, 인공신경망 모형에 의한 추정주가는 통계적으로 차이가 없었다. 이상의 결과로 볼 때 인공신경망 모형에 의한 추정주가가 Ohlson모형에 의한 추정주가보다 적정하게 평가되었다.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• 제7권12호
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• pp.703-710
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• 2020

The stock market serves as a representation of economic well-being in a country. Along with the myriad of economic predictors, specific knowledge possession may lead to different macro consequences of stock performance and market value. This study empirically investigates the capacity of possessing excellent intellectual capital to increase the performance and values of listed banks in Indonesia. The selection of banks as the primary data represents such sectors' capability to attract, employ, or exploit the excellent internal capacity under the discussion of resource-based view theory. At best to the authors' knowledge, this topic's findings are still elusive and debatable upon considering the direct and indirect relationships between the proposed exogenous and endogenous variables. Eighteen listed banks form the panel data throughout 2011-2016. This study employs a path analysis and Sobel test to obtain the results of the proposed hypothesis. The results report some positive relationships of the intellectual capital to firms' performances and values, directly and indirectly, with a substantial effect on the second model compared to the first model. This study highlighted knowledge's capacity as a vital basis to gauge the banks' performance and valuation. However, a better formulation of intellectual capital is required to capture a better measurement.

• 한국조경학회지
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• 제19권1호
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• pp.61-80
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• 1991

The purpose of this study is to present the design method to embody the cultural heritage and to reproduce the image of Korean Traditional Garden these days. For this purpose, to begin with, the major elements which can be applied to the planning and design were extracted by to study on the prototype of Korean Traditional Garden, and the process and the outcome for reconstruction of traditional garden were presented by design proposal for the Korean Garden in the exhibition space of EXPO '90, the International Garden and Greenary Exposition, Osaka, Japan, 1990. The study on the prototype of Korean Garden is focused on the spatial organization, the facilities allocation, and the gardening technic of traditional garden, and the major contents of the case study are as follow ; (1) To investigate the constraints and the opportunities of site development by the analysis and the synthesis of the site condition for the case study, (2) To study on the planning technic which can be applied to the site, (3) To establish the planning models which can be introduced into the site and to choose the final model by the comparison and valuation of them, (4) To set up the Master Plan on the basis of the final model. In spite of the fact that the method and the contents have a lot of problems, the significance of this study is to present a possibility to reproduce the Korean Traditional Garden these days, moreover to grope for the opportunities to propagate it internationally.

• 한국경영과학회지
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• 제33권1호
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• pp.1-17
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• 2008

Market segmentation is a key strategic factor in increasing the expected profits, especially in the practice of revenue management. A manufacturing firm should manage both manufacturing quantities and pricing decisions over its segmented markets to maximize the expected profits, setting different price for each different segment. Also, market segments should be kept separate in order to prevent demand leakages between different market segments. In fact, even though the markets for different products are firmly segmented, it is not easy to keep separate segmentation because many products might be substitutable by customer buying behavior. That is, customers respond to price changes by purchasing other market's products instead of purchasing the originally requested products, which causes demand substitution effect ; This kind of substitution is referred to as price-driven substitution. Therefore, decisions on optimal prices should take into account the differences in customers' valuation of the different products. We consider a deterministic model for deciding optimal prices in the presence of price-driven substitution, and we compare both symmetrical-and asymmetrical-type demand substitutions between two segmented markets. The objective of this study is to develop analytical and numerical models to examine the impact of price-driven substitution on the optimal price levels and the total expected profits.

• 정보관리학회지
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• 제33권2호
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• pp.103-133
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• 2016

최근 특허기술의 가치평가가 크게 강조되고 있으며, 특허의 피인용횟수는 특허기술 가치평가에 있어 중요한 척도이다. 본 연구에서는 국내 특허를 대상으로 피인용횟수에 영향을 주는 변수들을 도출하기 위하여 일반화 선형모형 회귀분석을 실시하였다. 총 12개의 변수를 형태적, 기술적 그리고 개념적 요인으로 분류하였고, 국내 의료기기 특허 14개의 분야에 적용하여 분석한 결과 출원인 국적, 출원인 유형, 발명자 수, 출원국가 수, IPC 수, 참고문헌 수, 서지결합도가 특허 피인용횟수에 유의미한 영향을 미치는 것으로 나타났다. 본 연구는 국내 실정에 적용 가능한 연구를 수행함으로써 국내 특허에 대한 인용분석 방법론에 있어서 실질적인 기초적 자료를 제공했다는데 의의가 있다.

• 농촌계획
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• 제1권1호
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• pp.75-88
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• 1995

The purpose of this study is to present the direction for scheme cultural rural village. For this purpose, to begin with, the major elements which can be applied to the theory were extracted by the study on the scheme of rural village, and the process and the outcome for renovation of rural village were presented by design proposal for the rural village in the exhibition space of yoonghari in Chungwon-kun, Chungchengpukdo. The study on the scheme of rural village is focused on the spatial organization, the futilities allocation, and the major contents of the case study are as follow : (1) To investigate the constrains and the opportunities of site development by the analysis and the synthesis of the site condition for the case study, (2) To study on the planning theory which can be applied to the site, (3) To establish the planning directions which can be introduced into the site and to choose the rmn model by the comparison and valuation of them, (4) To set up the Master Plan on the basis of the final model In spite of the fact that the method and the contents have a lot of problems, the significance of this study is to present a possibility to renovate the rural village these days, moreover to grope for the opportunities to propagate it.

• 한국환경보건학회지
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• 제32권6호
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• pp.571-577
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• 2006

Health benefits from implementing air quality control measures were assessed using the Environmental Benefits Mapping and Analysis Program (BenMAP). BenMAP developed by US EPA is a GIS-based software tool that estimates the health impacts and associated economic values connected with changes in ambient air pollution. Once a set of BenMAP-required data was collected, the health benefits from implementing Seoul Air Quality Management Plan (SAQMP), an official AQ improvement plan for Seoul Metropolitan Area, was assessed using BenMAP. The PM10 concentrations assuming the SAQMP implemented successfully were predicted with the MM5 (Mesoscale Meteorological model version 5)/CMAQ (Community Multiscale Air Quality) model. A PM 10 exposure related premature mortality function was adopted trom a well-known epidemiology study. Economic valuation functions driven from benefit transfer methods were utilized. Through the SAQMP, PM10 concentrations were estimated to be lowered by $15{\mu}g/m^3\;to\;75{\mu}g/m^3$ depending on air quality modeling grids. 5,569 premature deaths (95% CI $3,264{\sim}7,809$ deaths) could be avoided in the Seoul Metropolitan Area. The economic value of the deaths avoided was estimated to $13.2 billion $(95%\;CI\;$890\;million{\sim}$28.2\;billion)$ using the benefit transfer value. BenMAP could be a useful tool for developing effective air quality improvement policy, enabling the policy makers to anticipate the effects of regulatory changes on people's health and the economy.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• 제7권9호
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• pp.293-304
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• 2020

The study reveals the extent of changes in selective financial numbers caused by fixed asset revaluation (FAR) and explores whether there was a management motive for playing the financial numbers game through using the FAR model. The data set consists of a sample of 142 listed companies purposively selected from 13 industries. The study found a significant impact of FAR on the net asset value (NAV), fixed asset intensity (FAI), and debt-to-equity ratio (DER). These findings are supported by the political cost and the debt covenant hypotheses. The study also observed a high growth of fixed assets by 9.5% to 14,603.8% resulting from FAR. More revealing is that FAR increased NAV in revaluer companies by an average of 427.20% as compared to 6.86% in non-revaluer companies. Even some companies with negative NAV took resort on FAR to show positive NAV. Besides, revaluer companies managed to reduce their DER by 70.45% as opposed to an increase of 8.45% in non-revaluer companies. Hence, the study concludes that most of the publicly-listed companies are involved in financial numbers game by the use of the FAR model. To build confidence among investors, companies should practice FAR rightly and disclose related information to help reduce information asymmetry.

• 기술경영경제학회:학술대회논문집
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• 기술경영경제학회 2004년도 제24회 동계학술대회 논문집
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• pp.222-245
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• 2004

This paper has an intention of proposing useful parametric tables of each industry group within Korea. These parametric tables can be insightful criteria for those who are dealing with the exact valuation of company, technology or industry through Real Option Analysis (ROA) since the identification of the movement of underlying asset is the very first step to be done. To give the exact estimations of parameters and the most preferred model in each industry group, we cover topics on ROA, stochastic process, and parametric estimation method like Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) and Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE). Additionally, specific industry groups, such as, Internet service group and mobile telecommunication service group defined independently in this paper are also examined in terms of its property of movement with the suggesting of the most fitting stochastic model.