• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• 제9권3호
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• pp.639-647
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• 2002

Efforts to obtain more power for unit root tests have continued. Pantula at el.(1994) compared empirical powers of several unit root test statistics and addressed that the weighted symmetric estimator(WSE) and the unconditional maximum likelihood estimator(UMLE) are the best among them. One can easily see that the powers of these two statistics are almost the same. In this paper we explain a connection between WSE and UMLE and suggest a unit root test statistic which may explain the connection between them.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• 제15권4호
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• pp.531-542
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• 2008

시계열 자료를 분석할 때, 시계열 자료가 가지고 있는 추세를 제거하기 위하여 결정적 추세인 경우 회귀모형을 이용하고, 확률적 추세인 경우 차분하는 방법을 이용한다. 이 때 제거의 옳바른 기준이 되는 검정 방법이 단위근 검정이다. 그러나 기존의 Dickey-Fuller 검정 (Dickey와 Fuller, 1979)은 표본 수가 작고, 단위근에 가까울 경우 검정력이 낮으며, 베이지안 단위근 검정은 절차가 복잡하다. 본 논문에서는 기존의 두 방법들의 문제점을 해결하기 위하여, 전통적 Dickey-Fuller 검정 방법과 베이지안 방법을 결합한 형태의 검정방법으로 제안하였다. 제안된 검정방법은 모형 AR(1)에서 계수가 거의 1이거나 표본 수가 작을 경우, 기존의 Dickey-Fuller 검정보다 검정력이 높을 뿐만 아니라 일반적인 베이지안 방법 보다 절차가 간단한 검정법이 된다.

• 한국산업정보학회논문지
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• 제23권3호
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• pp.131-142
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• 2018

Since income growth rate and poverty level are related, there is a possibility that the poverty rate may converge in the long run steady state as well. If the poverty rate converges, then for this study the state that begins with the high poverty rate would have a higher poverty reduction rate. To examine the convergence of poverty rate among the US states, this study uses two times series methodologies. First, in order to prevent the power loss from ignoring the structural break when testing for a unit root in a single time series, this study employs the newly developed panel LM unit root tests with level and trend shifts. The results of unit root tests of the log of poverty rate without allowing for structural breaks show that twenty six states reject the null hypothesis of unit root test for the ADF test, twenty five states for the LM test, and thirty five states for the RALS-LM test. The result of unit root tests that allow one structural break shows that the null hypothesis of a unit root test is rejected for twenty two states with the LM test, and thirty three states with the RALS-LM test. This supports poverty rates are converging among US states.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• 제12권3호
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• pp.797-805
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• 2005

Multivariate unit root tests for the VAR(p) model have been commonly used in time series analysis. Several unit root tests were developed and recently Shin(2004) suggested a cointegration test based on weighted symmetric estimator. In this paper, we suggest a multivariate unit root test statistic based on the weighted symmetric estimator. Using a small simulation study, we compare the powers of the new test statistic with the statistics suggested in Shin(2004) and Fuller(1996).

• Journal of the Korean Statistical Society
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• 제27권1호
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• pp.57-66
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• 1998

In the analysis of time series it is an important issue to determine whether a time series under study is stationary. For the test of the stationary of the time series the Dickey-Fuller (DF) type tests have been mainly used. In this paper, we consider the regular unit root tests and seasonal unit root tests based on the generalized Durbin-Watson (DW) statistics when the errors are independent. The limiting distributions of the proposed DW-type test statistics are the functionals of standard Brownian motions. We also obtain the finite distributions and powers of the DW-type test statistics and compare the performances with the DF-type tests. It is observed that the DW-type test statistics have good behaviors against the DF-type test statistics especially in the nonzero (seasonal) mean model.

• Journal of the Korean Statistical Society
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• 제36권1호
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• pp.149-156
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• 2007

This study suggests a new method for testing seasonal unit roots in a momentum threshold autoregressive (MTAR) process. This sign test is robust against heteroscedastic or heavy tailed errors and is invariant to monotone data transformation. The proposed test is a seasonal extension of the sign test of Park and Shin (2006). In the case of partial seasonal unit root in an MTAR model, a Monte-Carlo study shows that the proposed test has better power than the seasonal sign test developed for AR model.

• 한국환경복원기술학회지
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• 제11권4호
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• pp.119-128
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• 2008

In this study, we attempted to seek out the ways to recycle fresh root-chips in the slope revegetation works by breaking tree root wastes occurring during the construction works, also to review the applicability of fresh root-chips as the soil media in slope revegetation works. For this purpose, we organized test units in order to investigate on-site applicability of fresh root-chips (broken chips). In order to examine the desirable ration of combining fresh root-chips with the hydroseeding soil media on the cutting slopes, we organized test units depending on the amount of combination. The following is the main experimental results. 1. At first, we analyzed properties of hrdro-seeding soil media and soil of the experimental sites. The overall results demonstrate that all the test units show proper range for vegetation. 2. We believe that the physical properties of soils in the earlier phase of restoration works on the sloped sites are not greatly affected by the fact whether broken chips exist or not. However, as time elapses, broken chips needs to be investigated further on what kind of impact they have on the soil condition. 3. More species are found in the test unit combining broken chips and we believe that it will contribute to blossoming of green plants and ecological succession of neighboring plants. 4. We performed experiment on possibility for fresh root-chips as substitutes for the hydro-seeding soil-media. In the test unit that combines fresh root-chips, its mixture ratio tends to exceed that of the test unit that does not combine fresh root-chips by 5 %. In case of the Thick-Layer-Soil-Media Hydroseeding works, the mixture ratio of the test unit that combines fresh root-chips after 16 weeks exceeds that of the test unit that does not combine fresh root-chips by 75%. 5. From the result of our experiment, it is obvious that the ratio of mixture and the number of emerging species are higher for the test unit combining fresh root-chips than the test unit that does not combine them. In other words, we can replace the hydro-seeding-soil-media with some Fresh root-chips without affecting the physical property of soil.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• 제11권2호
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• pp.323-327
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• 2004

In this paper, we investigate the limiting distribution of the Ljung-Box test statistic in the unit root AR models with ARCH errors. We show that the limiting distribution is approximately chi-square distribution with the degrees of freedom only depending on the number of autocorrelation lags appearing in the test. Some simulation results are provided for illustration.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• 제7권10호
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• pp.523-530
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• 2020

The efficient market hypothesis explains the random walk hypothesis suggesting that stock prices are independent of each other, hence, it is impossible to earn abnormal profits. The positive effect of a well-functioning and highly efficient stock market on the performance of an economy motivated the Philippine Stock Exchange to pursue massive modernization initiatives. This research provides evidence of the existence of random walk in the Philippine stock market employing the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (1981) and Phillips-Perron (1988) unit root tests, the Lo-MacKinlay's (1988) conventional variance ratio test, and Chow-Denning's (1993) simple multiple variance ratio test. Results of the ADF and PP unit root tests confirm the necessary condition for a random walk. The Chow-Denning (1993) maximum /z/ statistic and the Wald test statistic as in Richardson and Smith (1991) for the joint hypotheses and the Lo and MacKinlay (1988) individual statistics variance ratio test generally accepted the null hypothesis of a random walk. That is, the unit root and variance ratio tests consistently indicate that the null hypothesis of random walk cannot be rejected. The existence of a random walk in weak-form efficiency can be attributed to market liquidity as a result of continuous development and modernization of the Philippine equity market.

• Journal of the Korean Statistical Society
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• 제22권2호
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• pp.271-282
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• 1993

Unit root test for temporally aggregated first order autoregressive process is considered. The temporal aggregate of fist order autoregression is an autoregressive moving average of order (1,1) with moving average parameter being function of the autoregressive parameter. One-step Gauss-Newton estimators are proposed and are shown to have the same limiting distribution as the ordinary least squares estimator for unit root when complete observations are available. A Monte-Carlo simulation shows that the temporal aggregation have no effect on the size. The power of the suggested test are nearly the same as the powers of the test based on complete observations.