• Title/Summary/Keyword: uncertainty sources

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Probabilistic-based assessment of composite steel-concrete structures through an innovative framework

  • Matos, Jose C.;Valente, Isabel B.;Cruz, Paulo J.S.;Moreira, Vicente N.
    • Steel and Composite Structures
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    • v.20 no.6
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    • pp.1345-1368
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    • 2016
  • This paper presents the probabilistic-based assessment of composite steel-concrete structures through an innovative framework. This framework combines model identification and reliability assessment procedures. The paper starts by describing current structural assessment algorithms and the most relevant uncertainty sources. The developed model identification algorithm is then presented. During this procedure, the model parameters are automatically adjusted, so that the numerical results best fit the experimental data. Modelling and measurement errors are respectively incorporated in this algorithm. The reliability assessment procedure aims to assess the structure performance, considering randomness in model parameters. Since monitoring and characterization tests are common measures to control and acquire information about those parameters, a Bayesian inference procedure is incorporated to update the reliability assessment. The framework is then tested with a set of composite steel-concrete beams, which behavior is complex. The experimental tests, as well as the developed numerical model and the obtained results from the proposed framework, are respectively present.

Release of AKARI/FIS Bright Source Catalogue ${\beta}-2$

  • Jeong, Woong-Seob;AKARI/FIS Data Reduction Team, AKARI/FIS Data Reduction Team
    • The Bulletin of The Korean Astronomical Society
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    • v.35 no.1
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    • pp.41.2-41.2
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    • 2010
  • The infrared astronomy satellite AKARI/FIS (Far-Infrared Surveyor) performed all-sky survey in 4 Far-IR bands (50 - 200${\mu}m$ range). It observed around 94% of the whole sky twice or more with a higher spatial resolution and a wider wavelength coverage than that of previous all-sky mission, IRAS. The AKARI/FIS bright source catalogue ${\beta}-2$ is the second released version which included around 290,000 point sources. It provides us with more reliable position and flux information, and around 4 times larger number of sources compared with the first version of catalogue. The sensitivity limit at $90{\mu}m$ band is 0.6 Jy and the estimated flux uncertainty is 20-35% for bright sources. The catalogue will be open to public in this year after the improvement of accuracy, reliability and completeness.

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INTEGRATED SOCIETAL RISK ASSESSMENT FRAMEWORK FOR NUCLEAR POWER AND RENEWABLE ENERGY SOURCES

  • LEE, SANG HUN;KANG, HYUN GOOK
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.47 no.4
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    • pp.461-471
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    • 2015
  • Recently, the estimation of the social cost of energy sources has been emphasized as various novel energy options become feasible in addition to conventional ones. In particular, the social cost of introducing measures to protect power-distribution systems from power-source instability and the cost of accident-risk response for various power sources must be investigated. To account for these risk factors, an integrated societal risk assessment framework, based on power-uncertainty analysis and accident-consequence analysis, is proposed. In this study, we applied the proposed framework to nuclear power plants, solar photovoltaic systems, and wind-turbine generators. The required capacity of gas-turbine power plants to be used as backup power facilities to compensate for fluctuations in the power output from the main power source was estimated based on the performance indicators of each power source. The average individual health risk per terawatt-hours (TWh) of electricity produced by each power source was quantitatively estimated by assessing accident frequency and the consequences of specific accident scenarios based on the probabilistic risk assessment methodology. This study is expected to provide insight into integrated societal risk analysis, and can be used to estimate the social cost of various power sources.

Error analysis and performance test of the volumetric interferometer for three dimensional coordinate measurements (삼차원 좌표 측정을 위한 부피 간섭계의 오차분석 및 성능평가)

  • 이혁교;주지영;김승우
    • Korean Journal of Optics and Photonics
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    • v.13 no.6
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    • pp.521-529
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    • 2002
  • We have recently proposed the new concept of a phase-measuring volumetric interferometer that enables us to accurately measure the xyz-coordinates of the probe without metrology frames. The interferometer is composed of a movable target and a fixed photo-detector array. The target is made of point diffraction sources to emit two spherical wavefronts, whose interference is monitored by an array of photo-detectors. Phase shifting is applied to obtain the precise phase values of the photo-detectors. Then the measured phases are fitted to a geometric model of multilateration so as to determine the xyz-location of the target by minimizing least square errors. The proposed interferometer has been designed and built with a volumetric uncertainty of less than 1.0 $\mu\textrm{m}$ within a cubic working volume of side 120 mm. Here, in this paper, we also present error sources, an evaluated uncertainty, and test results from the prototype system. The self-calibration of two-dimensional precision metrology stages is applied to test the performance of the interferometer.

A Study on the Probabilistic Analysis Method Considering Spatial Variability of Soil Properties (지반의 공간적 변동성을 고려한 확률론적 해석기법에 관한 연구)

  • Cho, Sung-Eun;Park, Hyung-Choon
    • Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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    • v.24 no.8
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    • pp.111-123
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    • 2008
  • Geotechnical engineering problems are characterized by many sources of uncertainty. Some of these sources are connected to the uncertainties of soil properties involved in the analysis. In this paper, a numerical procedure for a probabilistic analysis that considers the spatial variability of soil properties is presented to study the response of spatially random soil. The approach integrates a commercial finite difference method and random field theory into the framework of a probabilistic analysis. Two-dimensional non-Gaussian random fields are generated based on a Karhunen-$Lo{\grave{e}}ve$ expansion in a fashion consistent with a specified marginal distribution function and an autocorrelation function. A Monte Carlo simulation is then used to determine the statistical response based on the random fields. A series of analyses were performed to study the effects of uncertainty due to the spatial heterogeneity on the settlement and bearing capacity of a rough strip footing. The simulations provide insight into the application of uncertainty treatment to the geotechnical problem and show the importance of the spatial variability of soil properties with regard to the outcome of a probabilistic assessment.

A short study of uncertainty for post column isotope dilution method in HPLC-ICP/MS (HPLC-ICP/MS에서 후 컬럼 동위원소 희석법의 기초적인 불확도 연구)

  • Joo, Mingyu;Pak, Yong-Nam
    • Analytical Science and Technology
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    • v.27 no.6
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    • pp.269-276
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    • 2014
  • A short study for the uncertainty of post column isotope dilution method has been performed for the analysis of Selenomethionine in HPLC-ICP/MS. Major error sources studied were concentration and the flow rate of Se isotope solution, atomic weights of Se in spike and sample, and isotope ratio measured for the spiked sample. Uncertainties were obtained for each factor and the contribution for the total concentration uncertainty was 54.4% and 0.61%, 0.0072% and 0.018%, and 45.0%, respectively. The biggest contribution factor was concentration of the spike solution and the second was the isotopic ratio measured for the spiked sample solution. The mass flow rate of spike and atomic weights did not show much contribution. The calculated total uncertainty was $1.46ng{\cdot}g^{-1}$ for the standard SeMet ($126.30ng{\cdot}g^{-1}$). The experimental result was $127.09{\pm}1.46ng{\cdot}g^{-1}$ and the relative uncertainty was 1.20%.

Measurement of Grating Pitch Standards using Optical Diffractometry and Uncertainty Analysis (광 회절계를 이용한 격자 피치 표준 시편의 측정 및 불확도 해석)

  • Kim Jong-Ahn;Kim Jae-Wan;Park Byong-Chon;Kang Chu-Shik;Eom Tae-Bong
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Precision Engineering
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    • v.23 no.8 s.185
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    • pp.72-79
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    • 2006
  • We measured grating pitch standards using optical diffractometry and analyzed measurement uncertainty. Grating pitch standards have been used widely as a magnification standard for a scanning electron microscope (SEM) and a scanning probe microscope (SPM). Thus, to establish the meter-traceability in nano-metrology using SPM and SEM, it is important to certify grating pitch standards accurately. The optical diffractometer consists of two laser sources, argon ion laser (488 nm) and He-Cd laser (325 nm), optics to make an incident beam, a precision rotary table and a quadrant photo-diode to detect the position of diffraction beam. The precision rotary table incorporates a calibrated angle encoder, enabling the precise and accurate measurement of diffraction angle. Applying the measured diffraction angle to the grating equation, the mean pitch of grating specimen can be obtained very accurately. The pitch and orthogonality of two-dimensional grating pitch standards were measured, and the measurement uncertainty was analyzed according to the Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement. The expanded uncertainties (k = 2) in pitch measurement were less than 0.015 nm and 0.03 nm for the specimen with the nominal pitch of 300 nm and 1000 nm. In the case of orthogonality measurement, the expanded uncertainties were less than $0.006^{\circ}$. In the pitch measurement, the main uncertainty source was the variation of measured pitch values according to the diffraction order. The measurement results show that the optical diffractometry can be used as an effective calibration tool for grating pitch standards.

Application of Rainfall Runoff Model with Rainfall Uncertainty (강우자료의 불확실성을 고려한 강우 유출 모형의 적용)

  • Lee, Hyo-Sang;Jeon, Min-Woo;Balin, Daniela;Rode, Michael
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.42 no.10
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    • pp.773-783
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    • 2009
  • The effects of rainfall input uncertainty on predictions of stream flow are studied based extended GLUE (Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation) approach. The uncertainty in the rainfall data is implemented by systematic/non-systematic rainfall measurement analysis in Weida catchment, Germany. PDM (Probability Distribution Model) rainfall runoff model is selected for hydrological representation of the catchment. Using general correction procedure and DUE(Data Uncertainty Engine), feasible rainfall time series are generated. These series are applied to PDM in MC(Monte Carlo) and GLUE method; Posterior distributions of the model parameters are examined and behavioural model parameters are selected for simplified GLUE prediction of stream flow. All predictions are combined to develop ensemble prediction and 90 percentile of ensemble prediction, which are used to show the effects of uncertainty sources of input data and model parameters. The results show acceptable performances in all flow regime, except underestimation of the peak flows. These results are not definite proof of the effects of rainfall uncertainty on parameter estimation; however, extended GLUE approach in this study is a potential method which can include major uncertainty in the rainfall-runoff modelling.

Estimation of Measurement Uncertainty in Vitamin C Analysis from Vegetable and Fruit Juice (야채음료 중 비타민 C 분석에 있어서의 측정불확도 추정)

  • Kim, Young-Jun;Kim, Hyeon-Wee
    • Korean Journal of Food Science and Technology
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    • v.35 no.6
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    • pp.1053-1059
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    • 2003
  • This study aimed to determine the amount of vitamin C from vegetable & fruit juice by high performance liquid chromatograhy (HPLC). Components for estimation of measurement uncertainty associated with the analysis of vitamin C, such as standard weight, purity, molecular weight, dilution of standard solution, calibration curve, recovery, and precision, were importantly applied. The estimation of uncertainty obtained with systematic and random error based on the GUM (Guide to the expression of uncertainty in measurement) and EURACHEM document with mathematical calculation and statistical analysis. The components, evaluated ty either Type A or Type B methods, were combined to produce an overall value of uncertainty known as the combined standard uncertainty. An expanded uncertainty was obtained by multiplying the combined standard uncertainty with a coverage factor (k) calculated from the effective degree of freedom. The content of vitamin C from vegetable and fruit juice was 27.53 mg/100g and the expanded uncertainty by multiplying by the coverage factor (k, 2.06) was 0.63 mg/100g at a 95% confidence level. It was concluded that the main sources were, in order of recovery and precision, weight and purity of the reference material, dilution of the standard solution, and calibration curve. Careful experiments on other higher uncertainties is further needed in addition to better personal proficiency in sample analysis in terms of accuracy and precision.

Development of Laser Power Meter Calibration System with 12-diode Laser Sources (12개 다이오드 레이저를 활용하는 레이저 복사출력계 교정시스템 개발)

  • Kanghee Lee;Jae-Keun Yoo;In-Ho Bae;Seongchong Park;Dong-Hoon Lee
    • Korean Journal of Optics and Photonics
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    • v.35 no.2
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    • pp.61-70
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    • 2024
  • We demonstrate a laser power meter calibration system based on 12-diode laser sources coupled to single-mode fibres in a wavelength range from 400 to 1,600 nm. In our system, three laser power controllers ensure that the output power uncertainty of all laser sources is less than 0.1% (k=2). In addition, all laser beams are adjusted to have similar beam sizes of approximately 2 mm (1/e2-width) at the measurement position to minimise unmeasured laser power on a detector. As a reference detector, we use an integrating sphere combined with silicon and indium gallium arsenide photodiodes to minimise the non-uniformity and non-linearity of responsivity. The minimum uncertainty of the calibration system is estimated to be 1.1% (k=2) for most laser wavelengths.