• Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Navigation and Port Research Conference
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• 2002.03a
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• pp.197-203
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• 2002

The estimation of pile bearing capacity is important since the design details are determined from the result. There are numerous ways of determining the pile design load, but only few of them are chosen in the actual design. According to the recent investigation in Korea, the formulas proposed by Meyerhof based on the SPT N values are most frequently chosen in the design stage. In the study, various static and dynamic formulas have been used in predicting the allowable bearing capacity of a pile. Further, the reliability of these formulas has been verified by comparing the perdicted values with the static and dynamic load test measurements. Also in cases, these methods of pile bearing capacity determination do not take the time effect consideration, the actual allowable load as determined from pile load test indicates severe deviation from the design value. The principle results of this study are summarized as follows : A a result of estimate the reliability in criterion of the Davisson method, in was showed that Terzaghi & Peck > Chin > Meyerhof > Modified Meyerhof method was the most reliable method for the prediction of bearing capacity. Comparisons of the various pile-driving formulas showed that Modified Engineering News was the most reliable method. However, a significant error happened between dynamic bearing capacity equation was judged that uncertainty of hammer efficiency, characteristics of variable , time effect etc... was not considered. As a result of considering time effect increased skin friction capacity higher than end bearing capacity. It was found out that it would be possible to increase the skin friction capacity 1.99 times higher than a driving. As a result of considering 7 day's time effect, it was obtained that Engineering News. Modified Engineering News. Hiley, Danish, Gates, CAPWAP(CAse Pile Wave Analysis Program ) analysis for relation, respectively, $Q_{u(Restrike)}$ $Q_{u(EOID)}$ = 0.971 $t_{0.1}$, 0.968 $t_{0.1}$, 1.192 $t_{0.1}$, 0.88 $t_{0.1}$, 0.889 $t_{0.1}$, 0.966 $t_{0.1}$, 0.889 $t_{0.1}$, 0.966 $t_{0.1}$

• Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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• v.20 no.2
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• pp.412-424
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• 2019

In this study, the changes of the streamflow characteristics of the watershed were analysed depending on the infiltration methods of CAT. The study area, Boryeong-dam watershed located in Chungcheongnam-do area, has been suffered from severe drought in recent years and stabilized regarding on the storage rate through efforts such as constructing a channel connecting the upstream of Boryeong-dam from the downstream of the Geum river. In this study, the effects of soil infiltration parameters on the watershed streamflow characteristics were analyzed by the infiltration methods of CAT such as Rainfall Excess, Green&Ampt and Horton. And the parameter calibrations were conducted by SCEUA-P, a global optimization technique module of the PEST, the package for parameter optimization and uncertainty analysis, to compare the yearly variations of soil parameters for infiltration methods of CAT. In addition, the streamflow characteristics were analyzed for three infiltration methods by applying three different scenarios, such as applying calibrated parameters for every years to simulate the model for each years, applying calibrated parameters for the entire period to simulate the model for entire period, and applying the average value of yearly calibrated parameters to simulate the model for entire period.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2015.05a
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• pp.217-217
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• 2015

The objective of this study was mainly to evaluate the water resources potential of Lake Tana Basin (LTB) by using Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). From SWAT simulation of LTB, about 5236 km2 area of LTB is gauged watershed and the remaining 9878 km2 area is ungauged watershed. For calibration of model parameters, four gauged stations were considered namely: Gilgel Abay, Gummera, Rib, and Megech. The SWAT-CUP built-in techniques, particle swarm optimization (PSO) and generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) method was used for calibration of model parameters and PSO method were selected for the study based on its performance results in four gauging stations. However the level of sensitivity of flow parameters differ from catchment to catchment, the curve number (CN2) has been found the most sensitive parameters in all gauged catchments. To facilitate the transfer of data from gauged catchments to ungauged catchments, clustering of hydrologic response units (HRUs) were done based on physical similarity measured between gauged and ungauged catchment attributes. From SWAT land use/ soil use/slope reclassification of LTB, a total of 142 HRUs were identified and these HRUs are clustered in to 39 similar hydrologic groups. In order to transfer the optimized model parameters from gauged to ungauged catchments based on these clustered hydrologic groups, this study evaluates three parameter transfer schemes: parameters transfer based on homogeneous regions (PT-I), parameter transfer based on global averaging (PT-II), and parameter transfer by considering Gilgel Abay catchment as a representative catchment (PT-III) since its model performance values are better than the other three gauged catchments. The performance of these parameter transfer approach was evaluated based on values of Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) and coefficient of determination (R2). The computed NSE values was found to be 0.71, 0.58, and 0.31 for PT-I, PT-II and PT-III respectively and the computed R2 values was found to be 0.93, 0.82, and 0.95 for PT-I, PT-II, and PT-III respectively. Based on the performance evaluation criteria, PT-I were selected for modelling ungauged catchments by transferring optimized model parameters from gauged catchment. From the model result, yearly average stream flow for all homogeneous regions was found 29.54 m3/s, 112.92 m3/s, and 130.10 m3/s for time period (1989 - 2005) for region-I, region-II, and region-III respectively.

• The Journal of Engineering Geology
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• v.22 no.1
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• pp.15-25
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• 2012

Probabilistic design methods have been used as a design standard in Korea and abroad for achieving reasonable design by considering the statistical uncertainties of soil properties. In this study, the following techniques for reflecting geotechnical uncertainty are analyzed: quantification of the uncertainties of geotechnical random variables, and consideration of economic feasibility in design by minimizing the uncertainties related to the number of samples. To quantify the uncertainties, the techniques were applied to soil properties obtained from samples collected and tested in the field. The results showed an underestimation of the standard deviation by the 3-sigma approach in comparison with calculations using data from the samples. This finding indicates that economical design is possible in terms of probability. However, when compared with the Bayesian approach, which does not consider the number of samples, variability in the 3-sigma approach is underestimated for some variables. This finding also indicates a safety issue, whereas the number of samples based on the Bayesian approach showed the lowest variance. The variance of the probability density function showed a marked decrease with increasing number of samples, to converge at a certain level when the number exceeds 25. Of note, the estimation of values is more reliable for random variables having low variability, such as soil unit weight, and can be obtained with a small number of samples.

• Journal of Advanced Marine Engineering and Technology
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• v.39 no.6
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• pp.662-669
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• 2015

There has been an increased interest in the mitigation of wax deposition because wax, which usually accumulates in subsea oil-production systems, interrupts stable oil production and significantly increases the cost. To guarantee a required oil flow by mitigating wax deposition, we need to obtain a reliable estimation of the wax deposition. In this research, we perform simulations to understand the major mechanisms that lead to wax deposition, namely molecular diffusion, shear stripping reduction, and aging. While the model variables (shear reduction multiplier, wax porosity, wax thermal conductivity, and molecular diffusion multiplier) can be measured experimentally, they have high uncertainty. We perform an analysis of these variables and the amount of water and gas in the multiphase flow to determine these effects on the behavior of wax deposition. Based on the results obtained during this study for a higher wax porosity and molecular diffusion multiplier, we were able to confirm the presence of thicker wax deposits. As the shear reduction multiplier decreased, the thickness of the wax deposits increased. As the amount of water increased, there was also an increase in the amount of wax deposits until 40% water cut and decreased. As the amount of gas increased, the amount of wax deposits increased because of the loss of the light hydrocarbon component in the liquid phase. The results of this study can be utilized to estimate the wax deposition behavior by comparing the experiment (or field) and simulation data.

• Tunnel and Underground Space
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• v.15 no.4 s.57
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• pp.264-274
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• 2005

The optimum blasting pattern to excavate a quarry efficiently and economically can be determined based on the minimum production cost which is generally estimated according to rock fragmentation. Therefore it is a critical problem to predict fragment size distribution of blasted rocks over an entire quarry. By comparing various prediction models, it can be ascertained that the result obtained from Kuz-Ram model relatively coincides with that of field measurements. Kuz-Ram model uses the concept of rock factor to signify conditions of rock mass such as block size, rock jointing, strength and others. For the evaluation of total production cost, it is imperative to estimate 3-D spatial distribution of rock factor for the entire quarry. In this study, a sequential indicator simulation technique is adopted for estimation of spatial distribution of rock factor due to its higher reproducibility of spatial variability and distribution models than Kriging methods. Further, this can reduce the uncertainty of predictor using distribution information of sample data The entire quarry is classified into three types of rock mass and optimum blasting pattern is proposed for each type based on 3-D spatial distribution of rock factor. In addition, plane maps of rock factor distribution for each ground levels is provided to estimate production costs for each process and to make a plan for an optimum blasting pattern.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation
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• v.10 no.1
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• pp.73-80
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• 2010

The optimal design of water distribution system have started with the least cost design of single objective function using fixed hydraulic variables, eg. fixed water demand and pipe roughness. However, more adequate design is accomplished with considering uncertainties laid on water distribution system such as uncertain future water demands, resulting in successful estimation of real network's behaviors. So, many researchers have suggested a variety of approaches to consider uncertainties in water distribution system using uncertainties quantification methods and the optimal design of multi-objective function is also studied. This paper suggests the new approach of a multi-objective optimization seeking the minimum cost and maximum robustness of the network based on two uncertain variables, nodal demands and pipe roughness uncertainties. Total design procedure consists of two folds: least cost design and final optimal design under uncertainties. The uncertainties of demands and roughness are considered with Latin Hypercube sampling technique with beta probability density functions and multi-objective genetic algorithms (MOGA) is used for the optimization process. The suggested approach is tested in a case study of real network named the New York Tunnels and the applicability of new approach is checked. As the computation time passes, we can check that initial populations, one solution of solutions of multi-objective genetic algorithm, spread to lower right section on the solution space and yield Pareto Optimum solutions building Pareto Front.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.3 no.2
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• pp.127-135
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• 1983

A new approach is developed to analyze the reliability of the earth retaining wall using the concept of probability of failure, instead of conventional factor of safety. Many uncertainties, which are included in the conventional stability analysis, can be excluded by using the stochastic approach. And the reliability, more consistent with the reality, can be obtained by the simulation. The strength parameters of soil properties are assumed to be random variables to follow a generalized beta distribution. The interval [A, B] of the random variables could be determined using the maximum likelihood estimation. The pseudo-random values corresponding to the proposed beta distribution are generated using the rejection method. The probability of failure defined as follows, is obtained by using the Monte Carlo Method. $$P_f=\frac{M}{N}$$ where, $P_f$ : Probability of failure N : Total number of trials M : Total number of failure out of N A computer program is developed for the computation procedure mentioned above. Finally, a numerical example is solved using the developed program.

• Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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• v.22 no.2
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• pp.79-87
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• 2010

This is the first of the two papers dealing with reliability analyses for external and internal stability of a quay wall constructed on a special foundation. A new practical reliability analysis method is proposed in this paper to evaluate the quantitative risk associated with external stability of a quay wall constructed on the deep cement mixed ground. The method can consider uncertainties in various design variables. For the risk estimation to external stability of the improved soil-quay wall, three corresponding limit state functions of sliding, overturning and bearing capacity are fully defined by introducing concept of the secondary random variable. Three representative reliability methods, MVFOSM, FORM and MCS are then applied to evaluate the failure probabilities of the three limit state functions explicitly expressed in terms of the basic and secondary random variables. From the reliability analysis results, the failure probabilities obtained from the three approaches are very close to each other, and the sliding failure mode appears to be the most critical when the earthquake loading is under consideration.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.46 no.4
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• pp.425-437
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• 2013

This study performed the bivariate drought frequency analysis for duration and severity of drought, using copula functions which allow considering the correlation structure of joint features of drought. We suggested the confidence intervals of duration-severity-frequency (DSF) curves for the given drought duration using stochastic scheme of monthly rainfall generation for 57 sites in Korea. This study also investigated drought risk via illustrating the largest drought events on record over 50 and 100 consecutive years. It appears that drought risks are much higher in some parts of the Nakdong River basin, southern and east coastal areas. However, such analyses are not always reliable, especially when the frequency analysis is performed based on the data observed over relatively short period of time. To quantify the uncertainty of drought frequency curves, the droughts were filtered by different durations. The 5%, 25%, 50%, 75%, and 95% confidence intervals of the drought severity for a given duration were estimated based on the simulated rainfall time series. Finally, it is shown that the growing uncertainties is revealed in the estimation of the joint probability using the two marginal distributions since the correlation coefficient of two variables is relatively low.