• 제목/요약/키워드: uncertainty of demand

검색결과 269건 처리시간 0.028초

물성치의 공간분포를 고려한 빙 시험편의 확률론적 강도평가 (Probabilistic Strength Assessment of Ice Specimen considering Spatial Variation of Material Properties)

  • 김호준;김유일
    • 대한조선학회논문집
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    • 제57권2호
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    • pp.80-87
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    • 2020
  • As the Arctic sea ice decreases due to various reasons such as global warming, the demand for ships and offshore structures operating in the Arctic region is steadily increasing. In the case of sea ice, the anisotropy is caused by the uncertainty inside the material. For most of the research, nevertheless, estimating the ice load has been treated deterministically. With regard to this, in this paper, a four-point bending strength analysis of an ice specimen was attempted using a stochastic finite element method. First, spatial distribution of the material properties used in the yield criterion was assumed to be a multivariate Gaussian random field. After that, a direct method, which is a sort of stochastic finite element method, and a sensitivity method using the sensitivity of response for random variables were proposed for calculating the probabilistic distribution of ice specimen strength. A parametric study was conducted with different mean vectors and correlation lengths for each material property used in the above procedure. The calculation time was about ten seconds for the direct method and about three minutes for the sensitivity methods. As the cohesion and correlation length increased, the mean value of the critical load and the standard deviation increased. On the contrary, they decreased as the friction angle increased. Also, in all cases, the direct and sensitivity methods yielded very similar results.

EXPERIMENTAL INVESTIGATIONS RELEVANT FOR HYDROGEN AND FISSION PRODUCT ISSUES RAISED BY THE FUKUSHIMA ACCIDENT

  • GUPTA, SANJEEV
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • 제47권1호
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    • pp.11-25
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    • 2015
  • The accident at Japan's Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant in March 2011, caused by an earthquake and a subsequent tsunami, resulted in a failure of the power systems that are needed to cool the reactors at the plant. The accident progression in the absence of heat removal systems caused Units 1-3 to undergo fuel melting. Containment pressurization and hydrogen explosions ultimately resulted in the escape of radioactivity from reactor containments into the atmosphere and ocean. Problems in containment venting operation, leakage from primary containment boundary to the reactor building, improper functioning of standby gas treatment system (SGTS), unmitigated hydrogen accumulation in the reactor building were identified as some of the reasons those added-up in the severity of the accident. The Fukushima accident not only initiated worldwide demand for installation of adequate control and mitigation measures to minimize the potential source term to the environment but also advocated assessment of the existing mitigation systems performance behavior under a wide range of postulated accident scenarios. The uncertainty in estimating the released fraction of the radionuclides due to the Fukushima accident also underlined the need for comprehensive understanding of fission product behavior as a function of the thermal hydraulic conditions and the type of gaseous, aqueous, and solid materials available for interaction, e.g., gas components, decontamination paint, aerosols, and water pools. In the light of the Fukushima accident, additional experimental needs identified for hydrogen and fission product issues need to be investigated in an integrated and optimized way. Additionally, as more and more passive safety systems, such as passive autocatalytic recombiners and filtered containment venting systems are being retrofitted in current reactors and also planned for future reactors, identified hydrogen and fission product issues will need to be coupled with the operation of passive safety systems in phenomena oriented and coupled effects experiments. In the present paper, potential hydrogen and fission product issues raised by the Fukushima accident are discussed. The discussion focuses on hydrogen and fission product behavior inside nuclear power plant containments under severe accident conditions. The relevant experimental investigations conducted in the technical scale containment THAI (thermal hydraulics, hydrogen, aerosols, and iodine) test facility (9.2 m high, 3.2 m in diameter, and $60m^3$ volume) are discussed in the light of the Fukushima accident.

Stochastic analysis of the rocking vulnerability of irregular anchored rigid bodies: application to soils of Mexico City

  • Ramos, Salvador;Arredondo, Cesar;Reinoso, Eduardo;Leonardo-Suarez, Miguel;Torres, Marco A.
    • Earthquakes and Structures
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    • 제20권1호
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    • pp.71-86
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    • 2021
  • This paper focuses on the development and assessment of the expected damage for the rocking response of rigid anchored blocks, with irregular geometry and non-uniform mass distribution, considering the site conditions and the seismicity of Mexico City. The non-linear behavior of the restrainers is incorporated to evaluate the pure tension and tension-shear failure mechanisms. A probabilistic framework is performed covering a wide range of block sizes, slenderness ratios and eccentricities using physics-based ground motion simulation. In order to incorporate the uncertainties related to the propagation of far-field earthquakes with a significant contribution to the seismic hazard at study sites, it was simulated a set of scenarios using a stochastic summation methods of small-earthquakes records, considered as Empirical Green's Function (EGFs). As Engineering Demand Parameter (EDP), the absolute value of the maximum block rotation normalized by the body slenderness, as a function of the peak ground acceleration (PGA) is adopted. The results show that anchorages are more efficient for blocks with slenderness ratio between two and three, while slenderness above four provide a better stability when they are not restrained. Besides, there is a range of peak intensities where anchored blocks located in soft soils are less vulnerable with respect to those located in firm soils. The procedure used in here allows to take decisions about risk, reliability and resilience assessment of different types of contents, and it is easily adaptable to other seismic environments.

산업적 관점에서 개별 기업들의 연구개발역량 차이에 대한 통계적 고찰: 해양수산 산업 사례 (A Statistical Study on the Differences in R&D Capabilities of Individual Companies from an Industrial Perspective: Maritime and Fisheries Industry Case)

  • 김상국;최붕기
    • 산업경영시스템학회지
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    • 제45권4호
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    • pp.199-209
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    • 2022
  • As the uncertainty of technology development and market needs increases due to changes in the global business environment, the interest and demand for R&D activities of individual companies are increasing. To respond to these environmental changes, technology commercialization players are paying great attention to enhancing the qualitative competitiveness of R&D. In particular, R&D companies in the marine and fishery sector face many difficulties compared to other industries. For example, the R&D environment is barren, it is challenging to secure R&D human resources, and it is facing a somewhat more difficult environment compared to other sectors, such as the difficulty in maintaining R&D continuity due to the turnover rate of researchers. In this study, based on the empirical data and patent status of private companies closely related to the R&D technology status, big data analysis, and simulation analysis methods were used to identify the relative position of individual companies' R&D capabilities and industrial perspectives. In this study, based on industrial evidence and patent applications closely related to the R&D technology status, the R&D capabilities of individual companies were evaluated using extensive data analysis and simulation analysis methods, and a statistical test was performed to analyze if there were differences in capabilities from an industrial point of view. At this time, the industries to be analyzed were based on all sectors, the maritime industry, the fisheries industry, and the maritime industry integration sector. In conclusion, it was analyzed that there was a certain level of difference in the R&D capabilities of individual companies in each industry sector, Therefore when developing a future R&D capability system, it was confirmed that it was necessary to separate the population for each industry and establish a strategy.

지속 가능한 자원관리를 위한 자원 전과정에서의 효율적 자원이용 촉진 (Promoting Resources Efficiency in the Life-cycle of Resource for Sustainable Resource Management)

  • 이일석;강홍윤
    • 자원리싸이클링
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    • 제24권2호
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    • pp.69-78
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    • 2015
  • 자원수급의 불확실성이 점차 고조되고 있는 글로벌 상황에 능동적으로 대처하기 위해 전 세계적으로 효율적인 자원관리의 필요성이 증대되고 있다. 자원관리 선진국들은 국가차원에서의 지속가능한 자원관리를 유도 및 지원하기 위해 자원이용의 효율성을 극대화하기 위한 법제도 마련 및 산업구조로의 전환을 촉진하고 있다. 한편, 국내의 경우 자원수급과 관련하여 국제환경에 매우 민감한 산업구조를 나타냄에 따라 국가 주도의 자원효율성의 획기적인 제고 방안 마련이 절실히 요구된다. 특히 자원 전과정에서의 자원의 효율적 이용을 위한 단계별 추구해야 할 방향과 구체적 실천방안에 대해 검토가 필요하다. 이에 본 연구에서는 자원 전과정을 크게 생산계와 순환계로 구분하고 이에 따른 단계별 국내 자원관리의 현황 및 문제점, 이를 개선하기 위한 방향성 및 구체적 실천방안을 제시하였다.

한국 영화산업의 집중성과 불균형의 맥락들 (The context of concentration and polarization of Korean film industry)

  • 김미현
    • 문화경제연구
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    • 제21권1호
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    • pp.3-20
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    • 2018
  • 본 연구는 한국 영화산업의 수직계열화 구조와 배급 및 상영시장의 집중도를 파악하고, 이 두 범주 간의 상호연관성에 대한 통합적인 맥락을 제시하고자 하였다. 한국영화 배급 및 상영시장의 집중성은 규모의 경제를 추구하고 수요의 불확실성을 방어하기 위한 산업 논리의 결과이다. 메이저 배급사는 대작영화에 자원을 집중하고 공급량을 조절함으로써 흥행위험을 방어하려는 경향이 강해지고 있으며, 최대한 많은 스크린을 확보하려는 배급 경쟁에 의해 멀티플렉스 체인의 협상력은 강화되고 있다. 수직결합 기업의 멀티플렉스는 계열관계에 따라 각 배급사의 영화에 차별적인 좌석수를 배정하는 것으로 나타났다. 그러나 수직계열화 기업마다 차별의 정도는 차이가 있으며, 상영 스크린수가 증가할수록 관객의 좌석점유율도 증가하고 있어서, 상영관이 계열관계에 따라 비합리적인 선택을 한다고 보기에는 무리가 있다. 따라서 수직결합구조가 스크린 독과점과 양극화의 원인이라는 일반화하기는 어려우며 유통시장의 집중성을 완화하고 중소영화를 지원하는 정책 방향이 요구된다.

화물운송 마켓플레이스 선택요인에 관한 연구 (A Study on the Choice Factors of Online Freight Marketplace)

  • 오현민;이향숙
    • 무역학회지
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    • 제46권4호
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    • pp.189-204
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    • 2021
  • The fourth industrial revolution is affecting the industry as a whole, and the current logistics industry is coexisting with crises and opportunities. As part of overcoming this situation, the online platformization of the logistics market has recently been rapidly taking place, and the growth of e-commerce around developed countries has emerged as a demand for flexible freight services that can send and receive cargo anywhere and anytime at appropriate cost. However, the logistics industry has not been able to change rapidly in line with the demands of the market as it is immersed in traditional transportation transactions. Thus, the digital transformation of the freight market has become urgent to address problems such as uncertainty over traditionally closed and conservative freight market transaction processes and the lack of reliability caused by information asymmetry. Therefore, innovative domestic and foreign companies are attempting to establish a new way of transporting cargo, especially a marketplace way of connecting suppliers and consumers. Current status analysis and case studies were conducted through existing literature surveys, and prior research on freight market place selection factors was previewed, and the selection factors were stratified into five upper and 19 lower factors. Through this study, it is expected that improvements for sustainable growth of freight marketplace companies will be derived and that it will be a basic study of establishing management strategies through marketplace operation and quality control. In addition, it is deemed that the priority of customer requirements can be actively accepted, providing an opportunity to actively respond and strengthen corporate competitiveness.

통합 연료전지모니터링 시스템 개발 (Development of the Integrated Fuel Cell Monitoring System)

  • 김현준;염상철;안병기;김세훈;금영범
    • 한국수소및신에너지학회논문집
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    • 제26권3호
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    • pp.241-246
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    • 2015
  • The interest of New Renewable Energy is increasing globally because of the increment of the uncertainty for the energy's supply and demand, and the increment of the frequency in weather anomaly and its damages. One of the New Renewable Energies, Hydrogen receives attention as the future energy that can deal with global environment regulation. Fuel Cell Electric Vehicle (FCEV) is an environment-friendly vehicle that uses Hydrogen as fuel. The electric power for FCEV is generated by chemical reaction with Oxygen from the air and Hydrogen. Hyundai Motor Company (HMC) has developed a proprietary fuel cell system since 2005. In 2012, HMC is the first car maker that mass-produces the ix35 FCEV to the worldwide such as North America, Europe, etc. In order to develop and improve the FCEV technology, data acquisition and analysis of the driving vehicle information is essential. Therefore, the monitoring system is developed, which is consist of datalogger, Automatic Vehicle Location (AVL) server and main server. Especially, WCDMA technology is integrated into the system which enables the data analysis without any restriction of time and region. The main function of the system is the analysis of the driving pattern and the component durability, and the safety monitoring. As a result, ix35 FCEV has successfully developed by using the developed monitoring system. The system is going to take an advantage of development in the future FCEV technology.

환경영향평가의 사후관리 지원을 위한 환경공간정보 활용 방안 (Use of Environmental Geospatial Information to Support Environmental Impact Assessment Follow-Up Management)

  • 조남욱;맹준호;이명진
    • 대한원격탐사학회지
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    • 제33권5_3호
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    • pp.799-807
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    • 2017
  • 환경영향평가는 개발사업의 해로운 환경영향 감소를 위해 시행되는 규제적 성격의 제도이다. 그러나 환경가치는 계량화가 어렵고 불확실성이 따르기 때문에 제도 운영의 객관성 및 신뢰성 저하 문제가 지속적으로 지적되어 온 실정이다. 따라서 데이터 기반 환경영향평가제도의 필요성이 점차 높아지고 있는데, 특히 환경영향평가는 특정 지역의 개발에 대한 내용을 담기 때문에 공간정보의 비중이 높아 환경공간정보의 활용 가능성이 높은 분야이다. 또한 사후환경관리제도의 도입에 따라 환경정보의 시계열적 제공 및 활용체계가 요구되고 있다. 본 연구에서는 환경영향평가의 제도적 특징을 통해 정보제공체계의 필요성을 도출하고 기존 환경정보 활용체계를 분석하였다. 그리고 이를 토대로 공신력 있는 환경공간정보 제공방안을 제시하여 환경영향평가제도의 한계점 개선을 위한 정책적 함의를 찾고자 하였다.

산업용 천연가스 수요관리 프로그램 최적화를 위한 동태적 시뮬레이션에 관한 연구 (A Study on the 'Extended' DSM Programs in Korean LNG Market)

  • 장한수;최기련
    • 자원ㆍ환경경제연구
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    • 제11권2호
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    • pp.211-231
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    • 2002
  • This paper summarizes the results of a study that assess how a demand side management (DSM) system addresses key economic and environmental challenges facing in the Korean natural gas sector considering; ${\bullet}$ high discrepancies of seasonal consumption volume and of load factor in unmatured domestic LNG market, ${\bullet}$ unfavorable and volatile international LNG market, imposing with the contestable "take-or-pay" contract terms, ${\bullet}$ low profile of LNG and existence of market barriers against an optimal fuel mix status in the industrial energy sector. A particular focus of this study is to establish an 'extended' DSM system in the unmatured gas market, especially in industry sector, that could play a key role to assure an optimum fuel mix scheme. Under the concept of 'extended' DSM, a system dynamics modeling approach has been introduced to explore the option to maximize economic benefits in terms of the national energy system optimization, entailing different ways of commitments accounting for different DSM measures and time delay scenarios. The study concludes that policy options exist that can reduce inefficiencies in gas industry and end-use system at no net costs to national economy. The most scenarios find that, by the year 2015, it is possible to develop a substantial potential of increased industrial gas end-uses under more reliable and stable load patterns. Assessment of sensitivity analysis suggests that time delay factor, in formulating DSM scenarios, plays a key role to overcome various market barriers in domestic LNG market and provides a strong justification for the policy portfolios 'just in time' (time accurateness), which eventually contribute to establish an optimum fuel mix strategy. The study indicates also the needs of advanced studies based on SD approach to articulate uncertainty in unmatured energy market analysis, including gas.

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