• Title/Summary/Keyword: uncertainty measurement

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Uncertainty of Spacial Variation of Rainfall Measurement by Point Raingauge (지점 강수량계에 의한 강우 공간분포 측정의 불확실성)

  • Kim, Won;Kim, Jong Pil;Kim, Dong Gu;Lee, Chan Ju
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2015.05a
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    • pp.30-30
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    • 2015
  • 유역에 내린 강우의 총량은 홍수나 갈수 측면에서 매우 중요하다. 점 강우량에 의해 측정된 강우량을 이용하여 유역 총강우량으로 환산하는 과정에 많은 오차가 포함되어 있다. 선행연구에 따르면, 우량계를 통한 강우관측에서 언더캐치(undercatch)에 의한 계통오차는 일반적으로 5~16%, 우연오차는 약 5%가 발생된다고 보고하였으며, 점 우량계 자료를 내삽하여 공간자료로 변환할 경우 0.1km 규모에서 표준오차가 4~14%, 1km 규모에서는 33~45%, 10km 규모에서는 약 65% 정도 발생된다고 한다. 이러한 우량계 관측오차 및 강우자료 처리과정에서 발생되는 오차는 유역의 유출량 계산에 영향을 주어 홍수예보 정확도를 크게 떨어뜨릴 수 있다. 우리나라에서는 지금까지 유역 총강우량 산정 측면에서 지점강우량의 불확실성에 대한 연구가 많이 이루어지지 못하였다. 본 연구에서는 우리나라에서 주로 사용되고 있는 전도형 우량계를 이용하여 소규모 구역에서 관측되는 강우관측의 불확실성을 분석하고자 하였다. 연구에 사용된 우량계는 0.5mm 급 표준 전도형 우량계로 정밀도는 시간당 1~100mm 기준으로 ${\pm}1%$를 기록하여 기상검정규격인 ${\pm}3%$를 만족하고 있다. 이 우량계는 한국건설기술연구원 안동하천실험센터 내에 장애물이 없는 평지에 60m 간격으로 총 6대($2{\times}3$)를 설치하여 2014년 7월 11일부터 9월 2일까지 54일간 관측을 수행하였다. 관측기간 동안 2대의 우량계가 수일동안 강우가 기록되지 않아서 분석에서 제외하였다. 우량계 상호 간의 누적강우량(54일간)을 비교한 결과 2.5~25.5mm의 차이를 나타냈다. 강우강도별 강우량 합계를 비교한 결과 시간당 1mm 이상에서는 약 1%의 차이가 났으며, 시간당 15mm 이상에서는 7.4%의 차이를 나타내어 강도가 큰 강우사상에서 우량계 간의 관측오차가 더 크게 나타났다. 또한 우량계 상호 간의 상관계수를 분석한 결과, 우량계 간의 거리가 가까울수록 그리고 누적시간이 길수록 상관계수는 커지는 것을 확인할 수 있었다. 도출된 결과를 토대로 하면 앞서 언급한 바와 같이 점 우량계 자료를 내삽하거나 유역 또는 계산격자의 대푯값으로 사용하여 1시간 이하 단위로 유출모의를 할 경우 심각한 오차를 발생시킬 수 있음을 시사한다. 보다 신뢰성 있는 홍수예보와 효율적인 유역관리를 위해서는 점 중심의 강우 관측이 아닌 면적 우량에 대한 관측이 이루어져야 하며 이를 위한 기술의 개발이 필요하다.

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A Study on the Improvement of Wavefront Sensing Accuracy for Shack-Hartmann Sensors (Shack-Hartmann 센서를 이용한 파면측정의 정확도 향상에 관한 연구)

  • Roh, Kyung-Wan;Uhm, Tae-Kyoung;Kim, Ji-Yeon;Park, Sang-Hoon;Youn, Sung-Kie;Lee, Jun-Ho
    • Korean Journal of Optics and Photonics
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    • v.17 no.5
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    • pp.383-390
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    • 2006
  • The SharkHartmann wavefront sensors are the most popular devices to measure wavefront in the field of adaptive optics. The Shack-Hartmann sensors measure the centroids of spot irradiance distribution formed by each corresponding micro-lens. The centroids are linearly proportional to the local mean slopes of the wavefront defined within the corresponding sub-aperture. The wavefront is then reconstructed from the evaluated local mean slopes. The uncertainty of the Shack-Hartmann sensor is caused by various factors including the detector noise, the limited size of the detector, the magnitude and profile of spot irradiance distribution, etc. This paper investigates the noise propagation in two major centroid evaluation algorithms through computer simulation; 1st order moments of the irradiance algorithms i.e. center of gravity algorithm, and correlation algorithm. First, the center of gravity algorithm is shown to have relatively large dependence on the magnitudes of noises and the shape & size of irradiance sidelobes, whose effects are also shown to be minimized by optimal thresholding. Second, the correlation algorithm is shown to be robust over those effects, while its measurement accuracy is vulnerable to the size variation of the reference spot. The investigation is finally confirmed by experimental measurements of defocus wavefront aberrations using a Shack-Hartmann sensor using those two algorithms.

Evaluation of the Standard Support Pattern in Large Section Tunnel by Numerical Analysis and Field Measurement (수치해석 및 현장계측에 의한 대단면 터널 표준지보패턴의 적정성 검증)

  • Byun, Yoseph;Chung, Sungrae;Song, Simyung;Chun, Byungsik;Park, Duhee
    • Journal of the Korean GEO-environmental Society
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    • v.12 no.7
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    • pp.5-12
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    • 2011
  • When choosing the support pattern of tunnel, the characteristics of rock are identified from the result of the surface geologic survey, boring, and geophysical prospecting and laboratory test. And a rock mass rating is classified and excavation method and standard support pattern are designed considering rock classification, domestic and international construction practices, numerical analysis. According to the revised design standard for tunnel, it was recommended to classify the rock mass rating for the design of tunnel into a rating based on RMR. If necessary, it proposed a flexible standard allowed applying more atomized the rock mass rating and Q-System. Also, the resonable verification of the support pattern must be accompanied because the factors affecting the structure and behavior of ground during the construction of tunnel are the main factors of uncertainty factors such as the nature of ground, ground water and the characteristics of structural materials. These days, such verification method is getting more specialized and diversified. In this study, the empirical method, numerical analysis and comparative analysis of in situ measurements were used to prove the reasonableness in the support pattern by RMR and Q-value on the Imha Dam emergency spillway.

Development of a Water Quality Indicator Prediction Model for the Korean Peninsula Seas using Artificial Intelligence (인공지능 기법을 활용한 한반도 해역의 수질평가지수 예측모델 개발)

  • Seong-Su Kim;Kyuhee Son;Doyoun Kim;Jang-Mu Heo;Seongeun Kim
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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    • v.29 no.1
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    • pp.24-35
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    • 2023
  • Rapid industrialization and urbanization have led to severe marine pollution. A Water Quality Index (WQI) has been developed to allow the effective management of marine pollution. However, the WQI suffers from problems with loss of information due to the complex calculations involved, changes in standards, calculation errors by practitioners, and statistical errors. Consequently, research on the use of artificial intelligence techniques to predict the marine and coastal WQI is being conducted both locally and internationally. In this study, six techniques (RF, XGBoost, KNN, Ext, SVM, and LR) were studied using marine environmental measurement data (2000-2020) to determine the most appropriate artificial intelligence technique to estimate the WOI of five ecoregions in the Korean seas. Our results show that the random forest method offers the best performance as compared to the other methods studied. The residual analysis of the WQI predicted score and actual score using the random forest method shows that the temporal and spatial prediction performance was exceptional for all ecoregions. In conclusion, the RF model of WQI prediction developed in this study is considered to be applicable to Korean seas with high accuracy.

Quantitative analysis of hydrogen in thin film by scattering-recoil co-measurement technique (산란-되튐 동시 측정 방법에 의한 박막 중 수소 정량법)

  • Lee, Hwa-Ryun;Eum, Chul Hun;Choi, Han-Woo;Kim, Joonkon
    • Analytical Science and Technology
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    • v.19 no.5
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    • pp.400-406
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    • 2006
  • Hydrogen analysis by elastic recoil detection has been performed utilizing polyimide film as a reference sample of known hydrogen content assuming the soundness of ion beam current integration. However beam current integration at higher incidence angle is not reliable. Scattering yield per unit fluence by current integration which is normalized per unit path length decreases as the sample tilt angle is getting higher. Moreover because beam current integration at high tilt angle is incomplete, hydrogen evaluation is very risky by direct comparison of sequentially collected recoil spectra between reference and target sample. In this study, primary ion beam dose is determined by backscattering spectrum that is collected simultaneously with recoil spectrum instead of ion beam current integration in order to reduce uncertainty arising in the process of current integration and to enhance the reliability of quantitative analysis. Three test samples are selected $-7.6{\mu}m$ polyimide film, hydrogen implanted silicondioxide and Au deposited carbon wafer- and analyzed by two methods and compared.

Development of Simultaneous Analysis for Multiple Agricultural Pesticides in Raw Milk Products using GC-MS/MS (GC-MS/MS를 이용한 원유 원료 중 농약 동시분석법 확립)

  • Young Nae Choi;Yoon ho Shin;Hwangeui Cho;Jung Bok Kim
    • Journal of Food Hygiene and Safety
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    • v.38 no.6
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    • pp.420-429
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    • 2023
  • GC-MS/MS using liquid-liquid extraction (LLE) and C18 cartridges was used to identify and quantify levels of chlorpyrifos, chlorpyrifos-methyl, cypermethrin, deltamethrin and permethrin in bulk raw milk. A calibration curve spanning 10 ng/mL to 200 ng/mL was obtained with a satisfactory correlation coefficient of 0.99. The limits of detection (LOD) and limits of quantitation (LOQ) for chlorpyrifos, chlorpyrifos-methyl, cypermethrin, deltamethrin, and permethrin in the matrix ranged from 0.06 to 1.81 ng/mL and 0.19 to 6.04 ng/mL, respectively. The recoveries of 5 pesticides from spiked samples at 37.5-125 ng/mL ranged from 86.1 to 102.1%. The measurement of uncertainty of the GC-MS/MS method for these five pesticides was developed based on the analytical process and quantification. An analysis method that is easier and faster than the method specified in the Korean food standards codes for analyzing these five pesticides in raw material milk was developed. Moreover, the analytical method for chlorpyrifos, chlorpyrifos-methyl, cypermethrin, deltamethrin, and permethrin in bulk raw milk by GC-MS/MS was established.

Determination of Electron Beam Output Factors of Individual Applicator for ML-15MDX Linear Accelerator (선형가속기 ML-15MDX의 각 Applicator에 대한 전자선 출력선량 계수 결정)

  • Park, Tae-Jin;Kim, Ok-Bae
    • Progress in Medical Physics
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    • v.5 no.1
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    • pp.87-99
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    • 1994
  • Purpose : The determination of electron beam output factor was investigated from individual applicator for various energy of ML-15MDX linear accelerator. The output factor of electron beam was extended from square to rectangular field in individual applicator size through with a least-square fit to a polynomial expression. Materials : In this experiments. the measurement of output was obtained from 2${\times}$cm$^2$ to 20${\times}$20cm$^2$ of field size in different applicator size for 4 to 15 MaV electron beam energy. The output factor was defined as the ratio of maximum dose output on the central axis of the field of individual applicator size to that of a given field size. Applicator factors were derived from comparing with the output dose of reference field size 10${\times}$10cm$^2$. The thickness of block was specially designed as 10mm in thickness of Lipowitz metal for field shaping in all electron energy. Two types of output curves are included as output factors versus side of square fields and that of variable side length for X and Y in one-dimensional to compare the expected values to that of experiments. Results : Expected output factors of rectangular which was derived from that of square fields in individual applicator size from 2${\times}$2cm$^2$ to 20${\times}$20cm$^2$ in different electron energy was very closed to that of experimental measurements within 2% uncertainty. However 1D method showed a 3% discrepancy in small rectangular field for low energy electron beam. Conclusion : Emperical non-linear polynomial regressions of square root and 1D method were performed to determin the output factor in various field size and electron energy. The expected output of electron beam of square root method for square field and 1D method for rectangular field were very closed to that of measurement in all selected electron beam energy.

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A Study on the Relationship between Business Plan Components and Corporate Performance (사업계획서의 구성요소와 기업성과와의 관계에 관한 연구)

  • Koh, In-Kon;Lee, Sang-Seok;Kim, Dae-Ho
    • 한국벤처창업학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 2006.04a
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    • pp.45-75
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    • 2006
  • How much influence does a business plan have on a corporate performance? Whilst previous studies and literatures all assert a strong correlation between the two, very few have actually conducted practical analyses to support that. This study takes an empirical approach in its analysis of Korea' s small and medium-sized enterprises (SME) with the view to finding an answer to the question. A business plan' s components, which have to date been suggested only in theory and in concept, have been selected through the study of literatures and preliminary examination. The selected components were then narrowed down into five factors of productivity, implementation, operational direction, product/service and customer accessibility by applying factor analysis. With which items to measure corporate performance is also an important question as results differ depending on which measurement items were used. For the purpose of this study, corporate performance was classified into effectiveness, adaptability and efficiency to measure how greatly each is influenced by the components of a business plan. Results show that effectiveness and adaptability have a positive (+) influence on corporate performance. The regression model seems to explain effectiveness particularly well. However, different directions of influences were showed in explain power of the research model were not high. And it can be interpreted that implementation of the plan is as important as the establishment of it. Thus a good corporate performance is to be had only under an excellent plan and following an excellent implementation. In most of the companies surveyed, business plans were established regularly led by the intense involvement of the CEO. Such plans were then used in internal operations, such as guiding operational direction and measuring corporate performance. Unlike general expectations, relatively few companies used them in financing from external sources such as banks or venture capitals. These findings are different from previous studies conducted in this field. Also, as market uncertainty was pointed out as the biggest obstacle to business planning. a manager must pay more attention to acquiring external information and knowledge so as to minimize it.

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Monitoring of Atmospheric Aerosol using GMS-5 Satellite Remote Sensing Data (GMS-5 인공위성 원격탐사 자료를 이용한 대기 에어러솔 모니터링)

  • Lee, Kwon Ho;Kim, Jeong Eun;Kim, Young Jun;Suh, Aesuk;Ahn, Myung Hwan
    • Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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    • v.5 no.2
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    • pp.1-15
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    • 2002
  • Atmospheric aerosols interact with sunlight and affect the global radiation balance that can cause climate change through direct and indirect radiative forcing. Because of the spatial and temporal uncertainty of aerosols in atmosphere, aerosol characteristics are not considered through GCMs (General Circulation Model). Therefor it is important physical and optical characteristics should be evaluated to assess climate change and radiative effect by atmospheric aerosols. In this study GMS-5 satellite data and surface measurement data were analyzed using a radiative transfer model for the Yellow Sand event of April 7~8, 2000 in order to investigate the atmospheric radiative effects of Yellow Sand aerosols, MODTRAN3 simulation results enable to inform the relation between satellite channel albedo and aerosol optical thickness(AOT). From this relation AOT was retreived from GMS-5 visible channel. The variance observations of satellite images enable remote sensing of the Yellow Sand particles. Back trajectory analysis was performed to track the air mass from the Gobi desert passing through Korean peninsular with high AOT value measured by ground based measurement. The comparison GMS-5 AOT to ground measured RSR aerosol optical depth(AOD) show that for Yellow Sand aerosols, the albedo measured over ocean surfaces can be used to obtain the aerosol optical thickness using appropriate aerosol model within an error of about 10%. In addition, LIDAR network measurements and backward trajectory model showed characteristics and appearance of Yellow Sand during Yellow Sand events. These data will be good supporting for monitoring of Yellow Sand aerosols.

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Compare the Clinical Tissue Dose Distributions to the Derived from the Energy Spectrum of 15 MV X Rays Linear Accelerator by Using the Transmitted Dose of Lead Filter (연(鉛)필터의 투과선량을 이용한 15 MV X선의 에너지스펙트럼 결정과 조직선량 비교)

  • Choi, Tae-Jin;Kim, Jin-Hee;Kim, Ok-Bae
    • Progress in Medical Physics
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    • v.19 no.1
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    • pp.80-88
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    • 2008
  • Recent radiotherapy dose planning system (RTPS) generally adapted the kernel beam using the convolution method for computation of tissue dose. To get a depth and profile dose in a given depth concerened a given photon beam, the energy spectrum was reconstructed from the attenuation dose of transmission of filter through iterative numerical analysis. The experiments were performed with 15 MV X rays (Oncor, Siemens) and ionization chamber (0.125 cc, PTW) for measurements of filter transmitted dose. The energy spectrum of 15MV X-rays was determined from attenuated dose of lead filter transmission from 0.51 cm to 8.04 cm with energy interval 0.25 MeV. In the results, the peak flux revealed at 3.75 MeV and mean energy of 15 MV X rays was 4.639 MeV in this experiments. The results of transmitted dose of lead filter showed within 0.6% in average but maximum 2.5% discrepancy in a 5 cm thickness of lead filter. Since the tissue dose is highly depend on the its energy, the lateral dose are delivered from the lateral spread of energy fluence through flattening filter shape as tangent 0.075 and 0.125 which showed 4.211 MeV and 3.906 MeV. In this experiments, analyzed the energy spectrum has applied to obtain the percent depth dose of RTPS (XiO, Version 4.3.1, CMS). The generated percent depth dose from $6{\times}6cm^2$ of field to $30{\times}30cm^2$ showed very close to that of experimental measurement within 1 % discrepancy in average. The computed dose profile were within 1% discrepancy to measurement in field size $10{\times}10cm$, however, the large field sizes were obtained within 2% uncertainty. The resulting algorithm produced x-ray spectrum that match both quality and quantity with small discrepancy in this experiments.

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