• Smart Structures and Systems
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• 제22권4호
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• pp.441-457
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• 2018

Characteristic parameter values of seismic isolators deviate from their nominal design values due to uncertainties and/or errors in their material properties and element dimensions, etc. Deviations may increase over service life due to environmental effects and service conditions. For accurate evaluation of the seismic safety level, all such effects, which would result in deviations in the structural response, need to be taken into account. In this study, the sensitivity of the probability of failure of the structures equipped with nonlinear base isolation systems to the uncertainties in various isolation system characteristic parameters is investigated in terms of various isolation system and superstructure response parameters in the context of a realistic three-dimensional base-isolated building model via Monte Carlo Simulations. The inherent record-to-record variability nature of the earthquake ground motions is also taken into account by carrying out analyses for a large number of ground motion records which are classified as those with and without forward-directivity effects. Two levels of nominal isolation periods each with three different levels of uncertainty are considered. Comparative plots of cumulative distribution functions and related statistical evaluation presented here portray the potential extent of the deviation of the structural response parameters resulting from the uncertainties and the uncertainty levels considered, which is expected to be useful for practicing engineers in evaluating isolator test results for their projects.

• 한국수자원학회논문집
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• 제36권4호
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• pp.661-671
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• 2003

본 연구는 홍수위 계산에 있어서 도입되는 불확식성의 원인을 분석하고 정량화하여 확률론적 홍수위 계산을 실시함으로서 제방원류에 대한 제내지의 범람특성을 해석할 수 있는 모형을 개발하였다. 이를 위해서 홍수위에 영향을 미치는 각종 영향인자를 통계학적으로 분석하였고, 이들 인자를 부등류와 부정류 해석과정에 Monte Carlo 모의를 도입함으로써 홍수위에 미치는 영향을 정량화하였다. 개발된 모형의 검증을 위해 낙동강 유역의 현풍∼적포교구간에 적용하였다. 제내지로의 범람양상과 역류양상을 합리적으로 모의하였고 질량보존도 잘 모의하고 있는 것으로 나타났다. 또한 제내지 침수양상 모의시 붕괴폭, 붕괴시간 등의 불확실도를 고려하여 침수수심 및 침수면적을 산정하였다.

• 유통과학연구
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• 제16권6호
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• pp.25-35
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• 2018

Purpose - Although marketing networks are crucial competitive advantage in terms of firm's new information and resource acquisition ability, their impact on new product development performance remains vague, especially under environmental uncertainty. The principal objective of this research is to provide a better understanding of effects of technological uncertainty and volume uncertainty on first tier supplier's perceived performance of new product development under conditions reflecting varying levels of structural holes. Specifically, this research examines the moderating effect of structural holes on the relationship between environmental uncertainty and new product development performance. Research design, data, and methodology - To test the hypotheses, a questionnaire survey was conducted with a Korean engineering firm's major first-tier suppliers in the context of internal network entities, manufacturer-supplier-subsupplier relationships, and to verify the proposed hypotheses, structural equation modeling was established. Construct measures were based on existing measures and previous research. Results - The survey results indicate that technological uncertainty and volume uncertainty differentially affect NPD performance under conditions of high and low structural holes. Conclusions - This study offer some theoretical and practical implications among distribution channel members, especially, this study suggests that interfirm networks have critical competitive advantage in uncertain environments. The distinctiveness of engineering industry might limit the generalizability of the results. Thus, future research should consider a wider range of industries.

• Applied Science and Convergence Technology
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• 제23권3호
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• pp.103-112
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• 2014

The Korea Research Institute of Standards and Science (KRISS) has three major vacuum systems: an ultrasonic interferometer manometer (UIM; Section II, Figs. 1 and 2) for a low vacuum, a static expansion system (SES; Section III, Figs. 3 and 4) for a medium vacuum, and an orifice-type dynamic expansion system (DES, Section IV, Figs. 5 and 6) for high and ultra-high vacuum systems. For each system, explicit measurement model equations with multiple variables are given. According to ISO standards, all of these system variable errors were used to calculate the expanded uncertainty (U). For each system, the expanded uncertainties (k = 1, confidence level = 95%) and relative expanded uncertainty (expanded uncertainty/generated pressure) levels are summarized in Table 4. Within the uncertainty limits, our bilateral and key comparisons [CCM.P-K4 (10 Pa to 1 kPa)] are extensive and in good agreement with those of other nations (Fig. 8 and Table 5).

• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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• 제42권4호
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• pp.117-138
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• 2020

Few studies have specifically focused on the uncertainty of demand forecasting despite the fact that uncertainty is the one of greatest risks for governments and private partners in PPP projects. This study presents a methodology for finding robust contract conditions considering uncertainty in travel demand forecasting in a PPP project. Through a case study of an urban railway PPP project in Korea, this study uncovered the risk of excessive government payments to private partners due to the uncertainty in contracted forecast ridership levels. The results allow the suggestion that robust contract conditions could reduce the expected total level of government payments and lower user fees while maintaining profitability of the project. This study offers a framework that assists contract negotiators and gives them more information regarding financial risks and vulnerabilities and helps them to quantify the likelihood of these vulnerabilities coming into play during PPP projects.

• 품질경영학회지
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• 제42권4호
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• pp.617-632
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• 2014

Purpose: This study aims to explore the relationship between the focal firm's interdepartmental cooperation and new product development (NPD) performance with focus on the moderating effect of environmental uncertainty. The basic hypothesized model is that there are positively associated relationships. Methods: The proposed research model was tested using structural equation modeling with 601 responses from multi-functional and multiple respondents in Korean manufacturing firms. Multi-group SEM analyses were conducted to explore the degree to which the hypothesized model was equivalent for different levels of environmental uncertainty. Results: Interdepartmental cooperation between R&D and production is positively associated with NPD performance under both higher and lower environmental uncertainties, while one between R&D and marketing is positively associated under only higher environmental uncertainty. Conclusion: This paper determined that NPD performance is positively correlated with R&D-production cooperation in a focal firm, and the relationship between R&D-marketing cooperation and NPD performance is positively moderated by level of environmental uncertainty. Consequently, this study suggests that it is always important for firms to put much effort on R&D-production cooperation for a better NPD performance, while R&D-marketing cooperation should be enhanced especially under higher environmental uncertainty than lower.

• 한국수자원학회논문집
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• 제51권spc1호
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• pp.1079-1089
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• 2018

기존 기후변화 영향평가에서 발생하는 불확실성에 대한 연구들은 전체과정에서 총 불확실성과 그 전파에 대한 것보다 각 단계별 불확실성에 초점을 맞추어 연구가 진행되었다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 first-order Taylor series expansion에 기반하여 전망의 분산을 이용하는 Uncertainty Delta Method (UDM)를 제안하였으며, 이 방법은 각 단계별 불확실성 정량화와 증감정도, 단계별 불확실성 비율, 총 불확실성의 전파 과정 제시가 가능하다. 본 연구에서는 기후변화 영향평가 과정의 단계별 불확실성 정량화와 전파과정 분석을 위해 미래 2030년부터 2059년까지를 대상으로 2개 배출 시나리오, 3개 GCM, 2개 상세화기법, 2개 수문모형을 사용하였다. 결과를 분석하면, UDM을 이용한 총 불확실성은 5.45(배출시나리오: 4.45, 상세화기법: 0.45, 상세화기법: 0.27, 수문모형: 0.28)이며, 배출 시나리오의 불확실성(4.45)이 가장 크게 나타났다. 불확실성은 각 단계를 거칠수록 증가하는 것으로 나타났다. 이러한 결과는 어떠한 배출시나리오를 선정하느냐에 따라 미래 수자원전망이 매우 달라질 수 있음을 의미한다. 다음으로 Hawkins and Sutton (2009)가 제안한 Fractional Uncertainty Method (FUM)을 이용한 기후변화 영향평가 불확실성 분석에서 가장 불확실성이 큰 요인은 배출 시나리오(FUM 불확실성: 0.52)이며, 이 결과는 UDM 결과와 동일하게 나타났다. 따라서 이 연구에서 제안한 UDM은 기후변화 영향평가에서의 불확실성 이해와 적합한 분석 및 미래 기후변화 대비 보다 나은 수자원 전망이 가능하도록 기여할 것으로 판단된다.

• 임상간호연구
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• 제20권3호
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• pp.279-289
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• 2014

Purpose: This study was conducted to investigate the relationship between uncertainty in illness and the future, sick role behavior with what diet, weight control, no smoking, abstinence, doctor visits, medications, etc, and quality of life of rehospitalized patients after percutaneous coronary intervention in a cardiology ward. Methods: A total of 120 patients participated in the study. Data were collected using a questionnaire and analyzed using t-test, ANOVA, $Scheff{\grave{e}}$ test, and Pearson's Correlation Coefficient. Results: The mean score for uncertainty was $3.45{\pm}1.08$. Sick role behavior of the patients showed a moderate value with a mean of $3.68{\pm}0.79$. The mean score for quality of life was $3.52{\pm}0.64$. Uncertainty in illness and the future was significantly correlated to sick role behavior with that diet, weight control, no smoking, abstinence, doctor visits, medications, etc (r=-.27, p=.002), and quality of life (r=-.35, p<.001), and sick role behaviors were significantly correlated to quality of life (r=.62, p<.001). Conclusion: The results implicate that there is a need to decrease the levels of uncertainty and reinforce positive behaviors by patients in order to improve their quality of life.

• Smart Structures and Systems
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• 제21권6호
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• pp.727-740
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• 2018

Tuned mass dampers (TMDs) are passive damping devices widely employed to mitigate the pedestrian-induced vibrations on footbridges. The TMD design must ensure an adequate performance during the overall life-cycle of the structure. Although the TMD is initially adjusted to match the natural frequency of the vibration mode which needs to be controlled, its design must further take into account the change of the modal parameters of the footbridge due to the modification of the operational and environmental conditions. For this purpose, a motion-based design optimization method is proposed and implemented herein, aimed at ensuring the adequate behavior of footbridges under uncertainty conditions. The uncertainty associated with the variation of such modal parameters is simulated by a probabilistic approach based on the results of previous research reported in literature. The pedestrian action is modelled according to the recommendations of the Synpex guidelines. A comparison among the TMD parameters obtained considering different design criteria, design requirements and uncertainty levels is performed. To illustrate the proposed approach, a benchmark footbridge is considered. Results show both which is the most adequate design criterion to control the pedestrian-induced vibrations on the footbridge and the influence of the design requirements and the uncertainty level in the final TMD design.

• 복식문화연구
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• 제8권1호
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• pp.30-39
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• 2000

The purpose of this study were to 1) identify types and levels of production environments, 2) classify apparel manufacturers based on production environments and 3) investigate relationship between characteristics of apparel manufacturers and production environment. Apparel manufacturer's characteristics included product line and the number of employees. For this study, the questionnaires were administered to 215 apparel manufacturers in seoul and Kyung-gi region from Feb. to Mar. 1998. Employing a sample of 201, data were analyzed by factor analysis, descriptive statistics, cluster analysis, cluster analysis, discriminant Analysis, and multivariate analysis of variance. The following are the results of this study : 1. The production environment was identified as three types such as complexity of product environment, uncertainty of demand/supply environment and uncertainty of worker environment. 2. Based on three types of the production environment, apparel manufacturers were classified into stable group, uncertain group and complicated group. 3. With respect to product line, men's wear manufacturers were lied the most high complexity of product environment, casual wear and knit wear were lied the most frequently uncertainty of worker environment. With respect to the number employees, apparel manufacturers comprising 50∼99 employees were lied the most high complexity of product environment, while those comprising 100∼299 employees the most high demand/supply environment.