• 제목/요약/키워드: uncertainty levels

검색결과 230건 처리시간 0.024초

적대적 학습 기반 오토인코더(ATAE)를 이용한 다차원 상수도관망 데이터 생성 (Multidimensional data generation of water distribution systems using adversarially trained autoencoder)

  • 김세형;전상훈;정동휘
    • 한국수자원학회논문집
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    • 제56권7호
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    • pp.439-449
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    • 2023
  • 최근 계측 기술의 발전으로 압력계와 유량계 등 다양한 센서를 설치하여 상수도관망의 상태를 효과적으로 파악할 수 있게 되었으나, 도시가 광범위하게 개발됨에 따라 계측 신뢰도에 영향을 미치는 변수는 다양해지고 있다. 특히 상수도관망 분석에 중요한 영향력을 가지는 수요 데이터의 경우 직접 계측의 난이도가 높고 결측이 발생하기 쉬운 것으로 알려져 데이터 생성의 중요도가 증가하고 있다. 본 논문에서는 상수도관망에서 누락된 데이터를 정확하게 생성하기 위해 생성적 딥러닝 모델에 기반한 적대적 학습 기반 오토인코더(ATAE) 모델을 제안한다. 제안된 모델은 판별 신경망과 생성 신경망의 두 가지 신경망의 적대적 학습을 사용하여 압력 데이터로부터 수요 데이터를 생성한다. 학습이 완료된 ATAE 모델의 생성 신경망은 관망의 계측되는 압력 데이터가 존재하는 경우, 그로부터 추정된 관망 수요 데이터를 제공할 수 있다. ATAE 모델은 미국 텍사스주 오스틴의 실제 상수도망에 적용되어 성능이 검증되었다. 수요 및 압력 시계열 데이터의 불확실성 정도에 따른 ATAE 예측 결과의 정확도를 비교하여 데이터 불확실성의 영향을 분석하였으며, 또한 수요 수준에 따른 데이터 수집 기간별 생성 결과를 비교하여 이에 따른 데이터 생성 성능을 검토하였다.

교통정보 수신율 변화에 따른 운전자의 경로선택과 학습과정 (Effect of Guidance Information Receiving Ratio on Driver's Route Choice Behavior and Learming Process)

  • 도명식;석종수;채정환
    • 대한교통학회지
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    • 제22권5호
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    • pp.111-122
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    • 2004
  • 본 연구에서는 운전자들의 경로선택 행태에서 교통정보 수신율이 네트워크 전반에 미치는 영향과 각 경로의 주행조건에 대한 운전자의 학습과정에 대해서 살펴보았으며, 교통상황이 정상성 및 비정상성을 따르는 경우, 공공기관의 유입교통량의 대소에 의해 유도되는 정보의 수신율이 증가함으로써 운전자의 경로선택행동이 네트워크에 미치는 영향을 분석하고 정보의 역효과가 나타남을 밝혔다. 또한, 정보수신율이 최적비율 이하인 경우에는 총통행시간이 정보가 없이 오직 자신의 경험에만 의존하는 경우보다 감소하여 정보제공의 효과가 있었지만, 최적비율 이상으로 유동정보에 따라 경로선택을 하는 운전자가 많아지면 정보의 역효과가 발생함도 증명하였다. 나아가, 교통환경이 정상성을 /따르는 경우에는 모든 운전자의 경로조건에 대한 학습과정과 이 경험을 축적함에 따라 어느 일정한 값으로 수렴해감을 알 수 있었다. 교통환경이 비정상성을 따르는 경우에는 주행조건에 대해 돌발적인 진동과 혼란상태가 발생하고 이 경우에도 무정보 환경보다는 어느정도의 비율로 유도정보가 주어지는 것이 네트워크 전체의 통행시간을 감소시킴으로써 정보의 효과가 있음도 확인하였다. 향후, 다양한 교통류 환경을 적용한 대규모 네트워크를 대상으로 한 운전자의 경로선택과 학습행동에 대한 연구와 정보의 정도에 따른 운전자의 행동을 고려한 정보의 제공방안에 대한 연구도 필요할 것으로 판단된다.

Isotope Measurement of Uranium at Ultratrace Levels Using Multicollector Inductively Coupled Plasma Mass Spectrometry

  • Oh, Seong-Y.;Lee, Seon-A.;Park, Jong-Ho;Lee, Myung-Ho;Song, Kyu-Seok
    • Mass Spectrometry Letters
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    • 제3권2호
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    • pp.54-57
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    • 2012
  • Mass spectrometric analysis was carried out using multicollector inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (MC-ICP-MS) for the precise and accurate determination of the isotope ratios of ultratrace levels of uranium dissolved in 3% $HNO_3$. We used the certified reference material (CRM) 112-A at a trace level of 100 pg/mL for the uranium isotopic measurement. Multiple collectors were utilized for the simultaneous measurement of uranium isotopes to reduce the signal uncertainty due to variations in the ion beam intensity over time. Mass bias correction was applied to the measured U isotopes to improve the precision and accuracy. Furthermore, elemental standard solution with certified values of platinum, iridium, gold, and thallium dissolved in 3% $HNO_3$ were analyzed to investigate the formation rates of the polyatomic ions of $Ir^{40}$ $Ar^+$, $Pt^{40}$ $Ar^+$, $Tl^{40}$ $Ar^+$, $Au^{40}$ $Ar^+$ for the concentration range of 50-400 pg/mL. Those polyatomic ions have mass-to-charge ratios in the 230-245 m/z region that it would contribute to the increase of background intensity of uranium, thorium, plutonium, and americium isotopes. The effect of the polyatomic ion interference on uranium isotope measurement has been estimated.

Making a Technological Catch-up: Barriers and Opportunities

  • Lee, Keun
    • 기술혁신연구
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    • 제13권2호
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    • pp.97-131
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    • 2005
  • This paper has discussed several issues regarding the barriers and opportunities for technological catch-up by the late-comer countries and firms. As one of the barriers to technological catch-up, the paper emphasizes the uncertainty involved with the third stage of learning how to design. The barriers arise because as the forerunner firms refuse to sell or give license to successful catching-up firms who thus have to design the product by themselves. The paper discusses how to overcome this barrier. It also notes that if the crisis of design technology is a push factor for leapfrogging, arrival of new techno-economic paradigm can serve as a pull factor for leapfrogging, serving as a winder of opportunity. The, it emphasized the two risks with leapfrogging, namely the risk of choosing right technology or standards and the risk of creating initial markets, and how to overcome these risks. It discusses how to overcome these risks in leapfrogging, and differentiates diverse forms of knowledge accesses. Then, the paper takes up the issue of whether there can be a single common or several models for catch-up. A common element of catching-up is to enter new markets segments quickly, to manufacture with high levels of engineering excellence, and to be first-to-market by means of the best integrative designs. This observation is supported by the fact that Korea and Taiwan has achieved higher levels of technological capabilities in such sectors as featured by short cycle time of technology. The possibility of two alternative models for catch-up is also discussed in terms of the key difference between Korean and Taiwan, especially in the position toward the source of foreign knowledge and the paths taken toward the final goal of OBM. Taiwan followed the sequential steps of OEM, ODM and OBN, in collaboration or integration with the MNCs. Korean chaebols jumped from OEM directly to OBM even without consolidating design technology.

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항공기 온도 관측 자료의 편향 보정 Part I: 존데와 비교를 통한 온도 편향 특성 분석 (Bias Correction for Aircraft Temperature Observation Part I: Analysis of Temperature Bias Characteristics by Comparison with Sonde Observation)

  • 권희내;강전호;권인혁
    • 대기
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    • 제28권4호
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    • pp.357-367
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    • 2018
  • In this study, the temperature bias of aircraft observation was estimated through comparison with sonde observation prior to developing the temperature bias correction method at the Korea Institute of Atmospheric Prediction Systems (KIAPS). First, we tried to compare aircraft temperature with collocated sonde observations at 0000 UTC on June 22, 2012. However, it was difficult to estimate the temperature bias due to the lack of samples and the uncertainty of the sonde position at high altitudes. Second, we attempted a background innovation comparison for sonde and aircraft using KIAPS Package for Observation Processing (KPOP). The one month averaged background innovation shows the aircraft temperature have a warm bias against sonde for all levels. In particular, there is a globally distinct warm bias about 0.4 K between 200 hPa and 300 hPa corresponding to flight level. Spatially, most of the areas showed the warm bias except for below 300 hPa in some part of China at 0000 and 1200 UTC and below 850 hPa in Australia at 0000 UTC. In general, the temperature bias was larger at 1200 UTC than 0000 UTC. Based on the estimated temperature bias, we have applied the static bias correction method to the aircraft temperature observation. As a result, the warm bias of the aircraft temperature has decreased at most levels, but a slight cold bias has occurred in some areas.

채용 전형에서 인공지능 기술 도입이 입사 지원의도에 미치는 영향 (The Impact of Artificial Intelligence Adoption in Candidates Screening and Job Interview on Intentions to Apply)

  • 이환우;이새롬;정경철
    • 한국정보시스템학회지:정보시스템연구
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    • 제28권2호
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    • pp.25-52
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    • 2019
  • Purpose Despite the recent increase in the use of selection tools using artificial intelligence (AI), far less is known about the effectiveness of them in recruitment and selection research. Design/methodology/approach This paper tests the impact of AI-based initial screening and interview on intentions to apply. We also examine the moderating role of individual difference (i.e., reliability on technology) in the relationship. Findings Using policy-capturing with undergraduate students at a large university in South Korea, this study showed that AI-based interview has a negative effect on intentions to apply, where AI-based initial screening has no effect. These results suggest that applicants may have a negative feeling of AI-based interview, but they may not AI-based initial screening. In other words, AI-based interview can reduce application rates, but AI-based screening not. Results also indicated that the relationship between AI-based initial screening and intentions to apply is moderated by the level of applicant's reliability on technology. Specifically, respondents with high levels of reliability are more likely than those with low levels of reliability to apply for firms using AI-based initial screening. However, the moderating role of reliability was not significant in the relationship between the AI interview and the applying intention. Employing uncertainty reduction theory, this study indicated that the relationship between AI-based selection tools and intentions to apply is dynamic, suggesting that organizations should carefully manage their AI-based selection techniques throughout the recruitment and selection process.

Measurement of Cortisol in Human Serum by Isotope Dilution Liquid Chromatography/Mass Spectrometry and a Comparison through a Proficiency Testing

  • Lee, Hwa-Shim;Shin, Hye-Sun;Park, Sang-Ryoul;Park, Chang-Joon
    • Bulletin of the Korean Chemical Society
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    • 제31권5호
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    • pp.1149-1154
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    • 2010
  • Liquid chromatography/mass spectrometry using isotope dilution method has been established as a primary method for the measurement of cortisol in human serum. Verification of this method was accomplished by the participation in Consultative Committee for Amount of Substance-Metrology in Chemistry (CCQM) pilot study. Two levels of cortisol certified reference materials were prepared and certified by the established method. They were used as sample materials for the proficiency testing. The expanded uncertainty in the measurement of cortisol in human serum was approximately 1.2% at 95% confidence level. The results of the proficiency testing showed a good precision among the participants, but some bias to the certified values. This means that commercial field laboratories should keep traceability chain to SI unit through available reference measurement procedures and/or available reference materials.

Development of a Method for Detecting Unstable Behaviors in Flume Tests using a Univariate Statistical Approach

  • Kim, Seul-Bi;Seo, Yong-Seok;Kim, Hyeong-Sin;Chae, Byung-Gon;Choi, Jung-Hae;Kim, Ji-Soo
    • 지질공학
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    • 제24권2호
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    • pp.191-199
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    • 2014
  • We describe a method for detecting slope instability in flume tests using pore pressure and water content data in conjunction with a statistical control chart analysis. Specifically, we conducted univariate statistical analysis on x-MR control chart data (pore pressure and water content) collected at several points along the flume slope, which we separated into three parts: upper, middle, and lower. To assess our results in the context of landslide forecasting and warning systems, we applied control limit lines at $1{\sigma}$, $2{\sigma}$, and $3{\sigma}$ levels of uncertainty. In doing so, we observed that dispersion time varies depending on the control limit line used. Moreover, the detection of instabilities is highly dependent on the position and type of sensor. Our findings indicate that different characteristics of the data on various factors predict slope failure differently and these characteristics can be identified by univariate statistical analysis. Therefore, we suggest that a univariate statistical approach is an effective method for the early detection of slope instability.

자기 조직화 지도에 기반한 유전자 발현 데이터의 계층적 군집화 (Hierarchical Clustering of Gene Expression Data Based on Self Organizing Map)

  • Park, Chang-Beom;Lee, Dong-Hwan;Lee, Seong-Whan
    • 한국생물정보학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국생물정보시스템생물학회 2003년도 제2차 연례학술대회 발표논문집
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    • pp.170-177
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    • 2003
  • Gene expression data are the quantitative measurements of expression levels and ratios of numberous genes in different situations based on microarray image analysis results. The process to draw meaningful information related to genomic diseases and various biological activities from gene expression data is known as gene expression data analysis. In this paper, we present a hierarchical clustering method of gene expression data based on self organizing map which can analyze the clustering result of gene expression data more efficiently. Using our proposed method, we could eliminate the uncertainty of cluster boundary which is the inherited disadvantage of self organizing map and use the visualization function of hierarchical clustering. And, we could process massive data using fast processing speed of self organizing map and interpret the clustering result of self organizing map more efficiently and user-friendly. To verify the efficiency of our proposed algorithm, we performed tests with following 3 data sets, animal feature data set, yeast gene expression data and leukemia gene expression data set. The result demonstrated the feasibility and utility of the proposed clustering algorithm.

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Reliability of structures with tuned mass dampers under wind-induced motion: a serviceability consideration

  • Pozos-Estrada, A.;Hong, H.P.;Galsworthy, J.K.
    • Wind and Structures
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    • 제14권2호
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    • pp.113-131
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    • 2011
  • Excessive wind-induced motion in tall buildings can cause discomfort, affect health, and disrupt the daily activities of the occupants of a building. Dynamic vibration absorbers such as the tuned mass dampers (TMDs) can be used to reduce the wind-induced motion below a specified tolerable serviceability limit state (SLS) criterion. This study investigates whether the same probability of not exceeding specified wind-induced motion levels can be achieved by torsionally sensitive structures without/with linear/nonlinear TMDs subjected to partially correlated wind forces, if they are designed to just meet the same SLS criterion. For the analyses, different structures and the uncertainty in the response, wind load and perception of motion is considered. Numerical results indicate that for structures that are designed or retrofitted without or with optimum linear TMDs and satisfying the same SLS criterion, their probability of exceeding the considered criterion is very consistent, if the inherent correlation between the wind forces is considered in design. However, this consistency deteriorates if nonlinear TMDs are employed. Furthermore, if the correlation is ignored in the design, in many cases a slightly unconservative design, as compared to the designed by considering correlation, is achieved.