• Title/Summary/Keyword: uncertainty importance

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Optimal Life Cycle Cost Design of a Bridge (교량의 생애주기비용 최적설계)

  • Park, Jang-Ho;Shin, Yung-Seok
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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    • v.25 no.6
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    • pp.115-122
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    • 2010
  • The importance of the life cycle cost (LCC) analysis for bridges has been recognized over the last decade. However, it is difficult to predict LCC precisely since the costs occurring throughout the service life of the bridge depend on various parameters such as design, construction, maintenance, and environmental conditions. This paper presents a methodology for the optimal life cycle cost design of a bridge. Total LCC for the service life is calculated as the sum of initial cost, damage cost, maintenance cost, repair and rehabilitation cost, user cost, and disposal cost. The optimization method is applied to design of a bridge structure with minimal cost, in which the objective function is set to LCC and constraints are formulated on the basis of Korean Bridge Design Code. Initial cost is calculated based on standard costs of the Korea Construction Price Index and damage cost on damage probabilities to consider the uncertainty of load and resistance. Repair and rehabilitation cost is determined using load carrying capacity curves and user cost includes traffic operation costs and time delay costs. The optimal life cycle cost design of a bridge is performed and the effects of parameters are investigated.

A Study on Warfighting Experimentation for Organizing Operational Troops (작전부대의 인원편성 최적화를 위한 워게임 전투실험 방법에 대한 연구)

  • Lee, Yong-Bin;Yum, Bong-Jin
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Military Science and Technology
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    • v.14 no.3
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    • pp.423-431
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    • 2011
  • Warfighting experimentation is an important process for identifying requirements against changing military environment and for verifying proposed measures for reforming military service. The wargame simulation experiment is regarded as one of the most effective means to warfighting experimentation, and its importance is increasing than ever. On the other hand, the results of wargame experiments could be unreliable due to the uncertainty involved in the experimental procedure. To improve the reliability of the experimental results, systematic experimental procedures and analysis methods must be employed, and the design and analysis of experiments technique can be used effectively for this purpose. In this paper, AWAM, a wargame simulator, is used to optimize the organization of operational troops. The simulation model describes a warfighting situation in which the 'survival rate of our force' and the 'survival rate of the enemy force' are considered as responses, 'the numbers of weapons in the squad' as control factors, and 'the uncontrollable variables of the battlefield' as noise factors. In addition, for the purpose of effective experimentation, the product array approach in which the inner and outer orthogonal arrays are crossed is adopted. Then, the signal-to-noise-ratio for each response and the desirabilities for the means and standard deviations of responses are calculated and used to determine a compromise optimal solution. The experimental procedures and analysis methods developed in this paper can provide guidelines for designing and analyzing wargame simulation experiments for similar warfighting situations.

Promoting Resources Efficiency in the Life-cycle of Resource for Sustainable Resource Management (지속 가능한 자원관리를 위한 자원 전과정에서의 효율적 자원이용 촉진)

  • Lee, Il-Seuk;Kang, Hong-Yoon
    • Resources Recycling
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    • v.24 no.2
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    • pp.69-78
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    • 2015
  • Recently, the importance of efficient resource management has been highlighted due to the uncertainty of its security. Developed countries promote the legislative provision and transition of industrial structure to maximize the efficiency of resource use through supporting the sustainable resource management at national level. Meanwhile Korea has very sensitive industrial structure along with the international resource supply and demand conditions. It is acutely necessary to improve the resource productivity with the various action plans such as the increase of recycling rate and the establishment of methodical resource management system. Especially, the study on the direction of each flow stage and the concrete action plans for using resource efficiently in the life-cycle of resource will be required. Therefore, this study suggests the future direction of each flow stage(production stage and circulatory stage), and the concrete action plans to improve the present problems of resource management in Korea.

Evaluation of Reliability Index of Governing Load Combination for Design of Cable Supported Bridge Members (케이블교량의 부재 설계를 지배하는 하중조합에 대한 신뢰도지수 평가)

  • Paik, Inyeol;Yoon, Taeyong
    • Journal of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute of Korea
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    • v.27 no.6
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    • pp.643-651
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    • 2014
  • In this paper the reliability analyses of the cable-supported bridge design code which is recently issued in Korea are performed and the results are presented. Governing load combinations for the member design and the statistical properties of the main members are introduced and the analysis is performed using an example cable-stayed bridge for which the design is performed following the load and resistance factors defined in the design code. The reliability analysis shows the target reliability index can be achieved by applying load and resistance factors and the application of the resistance modification factor can enhance the reliability level if the importance of the bridge needs to be increased. The sensitivity analysis reveals that decreasing uncertainty of the cable strength is critical for obtaining the target reliability index. The study results show that the design using the load and resistance factors of the code can achieve the target reliability indexes for the design of cable supported bridge.

Methodology for real-time adaptation of tunnels support using the observational method

  • Miranda, Tiago;Dias, Daniel;Pinheiro, Marisa;Eclaircy-Caudron, Stephanie
    • Geomechanics and Engineering
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    • v.8 no.2
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    • pp.153-171
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    • 2015
  • The observational method in tunnel engineering allows the evaluation in real time of the actual conditions of the ground and to take measures if its behavior deviates considerably from predictions. However, it lacks a consistent and structured methodology to use the monitoring data to adapt the support system in real time. The definition of limit criteria above which adaptation is required are not defined and complex inverse analysis procedures (Rechea et al. 2008, Levasseur et al. 2010, Zentar et al. 2001, Lecampion et al. 2002, Finno and Calvello 2005, Goh 1999, Cui and Pan 2012, Deng et al. 2010, Mathew and Lehane 2013, Sharifzadeh et al. 2012, 2013) may be needed to consistently analyze the problem. In this paper a methodology for the real time adaptation of the support systems during tunneling is presented. In a first step limit criteria for displacements and stresses are proposed. The methodology uses graphics that are constructed during the project stage based on parametric calculations to assist in the process and when these graphics are not available, since it is not possible to predict every possible scenario, inverse analysis calculations are carried out. The methodology is applied to the "Bois de Peu" tunnel which is composed by two tubes with over 500 m long. High uncertainty levels existed concerning the heterogeneity of the soil and consequently in the geomechanical design parameters. The methodology was applied in four sections and the results focus on two of them. It is shown that the methodology has potential to be applied in real cases contributing for a consistent approach of a real time adaptation of the support system and highlight the importance of the existence of good quality and specific monitoring data to improve the inverse analysis procedure.

Fuzzy Linguistic Recommender Systems for the Selective Diffusion of Information in Digital Libraries

  • Porcel, Carlos;Ching-Lopez, Alberto;Bernabe-Moreno, Juan;Tejeda-Lorente, Alvaro;Herrera-Viedma, Enrique
    • Journal of Information Processing Systems
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    • v.13 no.4
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    • pp.653-667
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    • 2017
  • The significant advances in information and communication technologies are changing the process of how information is accessed. The internet is a very important source of information and it influences the development of other media. Furthermore, the growth of digital content is a big problem for academic digital libraries, so that similar tools can be applied in this scope to provide users with access to the information. Given the importance of this, we have reviewed and analyzed several proposals that improve the processes of disseminating information in these university digital libraries and that promote access to information of interest. These proposals manage to adapt a user's access to information according to his or her needs and preferences. As seen in the literature one of the techniques with the best results, is the application of recommender systems. These are tools whose objective is to evaluate and filter the vast amount of digital information that is accessible online in order to help users in their processes of accessing information. In particular, we are focused on the analysis of the fuzzy linguistic recommender systems (i.e., recommender systems that use fuzzy linguistic modeling tools to manage the user's preferences and the uncertainty of the system in a qualitative way). Thus, in this work, we analyzed some proposals based on fuzzy linguistic recommender systems to help researchers, students, and teachers access resources of interest and thus, improve and complement the services provided by academic digital libraries.

Current Status for Generation, Treatment and Recycling of Waste Resources in the Domestic Industry and Improvement Measures of Resource Efficiency (국내(國內) 산업(産業) 폐자원(廢資源)의 발생(發生)·처리(處理)·재자원화(再資源化) 현황(現況) 및 자원효율성(資源效率性) 향상(向上) 방안(方案))

  • Kang, Hong-Yoon;Lee, Il-Seuk;Kim, Kyung-Hwan
    • Resources Recycling
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    • v.22 no.3
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    • pp.3-17
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    • 2013
  • Recently, the importance of efficient resource management has been highlighted due to the uncertainty of its security. Korea has thus made an effort to improve the resource productivity in various fields such as the increase of recycling rate and the establishment of methodical resource management system. It is still necessary to draw the innovative improvement measure of national resource efficiency. This study derives major issues of recycling potential in the domestic industry by analyzing the current status of generation, treatment and recycling of industrial wastes in Korea. Futhermore, main tasks for promoting the improvement of national resource efficiency through the recycling of industrial wastes in Korea have been proposed based on the results of this study with the comparison of Japan's situation.

Development of a Calculating Model for Local Index Based on Historical Data of Public Apartment Buildings (공공아파트 실적데이터 기반의 지역지수 산정 모델 개발)

  • Lim, Dae-Hee;Lee, Seung-Hoon;Seo, Yong-Chil
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Building Construction
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    • v.10 no.2
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    • pp.75-80
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    • 2010
  • With the intensifying of price competition and structural diversifications, the uncertainty of the domestic housing market has been increased. This highlights the importance of the planning stage of construction projects, and the increased need for a higher level of accuracy in approximate estimates. Currently, a number of research and development programs to calculate construction cost at the initial planning stage are being conducted. However, there are few cases in which local characteristics are considered in deriving the results. If local calibration can be conducted during estimates, more accurate cost estimates will be enabled. This could also play a major role in ensuring the success of a project. Therefore, the purpose of this research is to develop a calculation methodology and a model for a local index based on the historical data of public apartment buildings, and to derive a local index that supports accurate construction cost estimates.

Estimating Irrigation Requirement for Rice Cropping under Flooding Condition using BUDGET Model

  • Seo, Mi-jin;Han, Kyung-Hwa;Zhang, Yong-Seon;Jung, Kang-Ho;Cho, Hee-Rae
    • Korean Journal of Soil Science and Fertilizer
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    • v.48 no.4
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    • pp.246-254
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    • 2015
  • This study explored the effect of rainfall pattern and soil characteristics on water management in rice paddy fields, using a soil water balance model, BUDGET. In two sites with different soil textural group, coarse loamy soil (Gangseo series) and fine soil (Hwadong series), respectively, we have monitored daily decrease of water depth, percolation rate, and groundwater table. The observed evapotranspiration (ET) was obtained from differences between water depth decrease and percolation rate. The root mean square difference values between observed and BUDGET-estimated ET ranged between 10% and 20% of the average observed ET. This is comparable to the measurement uncertainty, suggesting that the BUDGET model can provide reliable ET estimation for rice fields. In BUDGET model of this study, irrigation requirement was determined as minimum water need for maintaining water-saturated soil surface, assuming 100 mm of bund height and no lateral loss of water. The model results showed different water balance and irrigation requirement with the different soil profile and indicated that minimum percolation rate by plow pan could determine the irrigation requirement of rice paddy field. For the condition of different rainfall distribution, the results presented different irrigation period and amounts, representing the importance of securing water for irrigation against different rainfall pattern.

Estimating potential range shift of some wild bees in response to climate change scenarios in northwestern regions of Iran

  • Rahimi, Ehsan;Barghjelveh, Shahindokht;Dong, Pinliang
    • Journal of Ecology and Environment
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    • v.45 no.3
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    • pp.130-142
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    • 2021
  • Background: Climate change is occurring rapidly around the world, and is predicted to have a large impact on biodiversity. Various studies have shown that climate change can alter the geographical distribution of wild bees. As climate change affects the species distribution and causes range shift, the degree of range shift and the quality of the habitats are becoming more important for securing the species diversity. In addition, those pollinator insects are contributing not only to shaping the natural ecosystem but also to increased crop production. The distributional and habitat quality changes of wild bees are of utmost importance in the climate change era. This study aims to investigate the impact of climate change on distributional and habitat quality changes of five wild bees in northwestern regions of Iran under two representative concentration pathway scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5). We used species distribution models to predict the potential range shift of these species in the year 2070. Result: The effects of climate change on different species are different, and the increase in temperature mainly expands the distribution ranges of wild bees, except for one species that is estimated to have a reduced potential range. Therefore, the increase in temperature would force wild bees to shift to higher latitudes. There was also significant uncertainty in the use of different models and the number of environmental layers employed in the modeling of habitat suitability. Conclusion: The increase in temperature caused the expansion of species distribution and wider areas would be available to the studied species in the future. However, not all of this possible range may include high-quality habitats, and wild bees may limit their niche to suitable habitats. On the other hand, the movement of species to higher latitudes will cause a mismatch between farms and suitable areas for wild bees, and as a result, farmers will face a shortage of pollination from wild bees. We suggest that farmers in these areas be aware of the effects of climate change on agricultural production and consider the use of managed bees in the future.